Eastern Conference Preview…..Oh Baby!!!!


As a lifelong New York Rangers fan, it was an inevitable development that I became an enormous fan of longtime Ranger goaltender and then announcer John Davidson, affectionately known to Ranger fans as JD. JD was a goalie who was not blessed with a lot of talent. His effectiveness was belied by his heart, his fearlessness, and his passion for the game. That passion for hockey would come shooting out of his voice while he was announcing a game. He developed an expression during the most exciting parts of a game. JD would uncontrollably exclaim, Oh Baby, when the action got so intense, he lost the words to describe it. Oh Baby wasn’t a contrived catch phrase. It was the result of a passionate hockey man who couldn’t hold back.

Being the basketball fanatic that I am, when I think about this upcoming season, the only words I can use to describe it are, “Oh Baby!!!” After the most interesting and publicized off season in league history, the time has come to lace them up and get it on. So, without further adieu, I give you my Eastern Conference Preview.


Atlantic Division (in order of predicted finish)


Boston Celtics- This season’s incarnation of the storied Celtics is a little different than the previous 3 years and I actually think that’s a good thing. The biggest problem this group of Celtics can encounter are the effects of father time. As their core ages, the importance of managing the minutes of their “Big 3” becomes more essential. This version of the Celtics will have that covered well. This is the deepest Celtic team of the last 4 years, even without Kendrick Perkins for the first half of the season. The free agent signings of Shaquille and Jermaine O’Neal will give the Celtics plenty of depth up front while they wait for Perkins to return. Also, the additions of Delonte West and Von Wafer will strengthen the bench as well and allow Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to get the necessary rest they need to be healthy for the playoffs. Keep an eye on Wafer, who played for the Rockets two years ago and was out of the league last year. Wafer will pass a kidney stone before he’ll ever pass the ball, but he can fill it up in bunches in short spurts and defends like an animal. The Celtics have a very good chance to return to where they got last year….game 7 of the NBA finals.

New York Knicks- After 10 years of selling their fans a bill of goods about their ability to be competitive, it looks the Knicks are finally going to be making the right kind of progress. They got younger, more athletic, and will be significantly more fun to watch. Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks a caliber of player that they haven’t had since the days of Patrick Ewing. Raymond Felton gives the Knicks a tough, fast point guard who can push the ball and actually run coach Mike D’Antoni’s offense. Felton just came out of a year of point guard prison with Warden Larry Brown. Playing in D’Antoni’s wide open style will feel like a whole new world has opened up for Felton. And watch Knicks rookie center Timofey Mozgov from Russia. He’s big, he can jump high, has good hands, plays physical, and understands how to play help defense. The Knicks may be able to push over the .500 mark as they move in the right direction. Now the future would really be bright if the Knicks actually had any draft picks. Also, a big wild card for the Knicks will be if they are able to acquire Carmelo Anthony this season. I think there’s a high probability that Anthony ends up in New York. If he does, the Knicks could be as high as a #5 seed in the East. Better times are on the horizon in the Big Apple. Despite not getting Lebron James in free agency, Donnie Walsh had a very productive off season.

Toronto Raptors- The good news for the Raptors is that in my opinion, they will not completely collapse after losing Chris Bosh to his higher calling of saving the free world with the Miami Heat. The Raptors are actually in the process of building an interesting young core. Last year’s first round pick Demar Derozan appears to be ready to pick up the slack as the franchise’s best player. Ed Davis may end up being a tremendous value in this past year’s first round. And the addition of wing player Linas Kleiza should really help. Kleiza played in Greece last season after being an important bench player two years ago for the Denver team that made to the West finals. Kleiza looked great this summer playing for Lithuania in this past summer’s World Championships. He should help Toronto a lot. Unfortunately for Toronto, the best they can hope for is an outside shot at the #8 seed in the East and frankly, they would be better off back in the lottery.

Philadelphia 76ers- Sometime soon, new Sixers head coach Doug Collins is going to realize what he left the cozy confines of the broadcast booth to coach, and when he does, he is going to get a case of indigestion worse than Rex Ryan at a breakfast buffet. First off, they’re not very deep up front. Marreese Speights is an athletic big, but there’s not much behind him. Elton Brand has been an enormous disappointment on every front. His contract is an anchor on the organization. He has been unable to stay healthy and when he’s played, he’s been barely noticeable. And they still owe him huge money for 3 more years. As good as Andre Iguodala looked in the World Championships this summer, he’s not an elite player and he’s paid like one. The Sixers drafted Evan Turner, who does many of the same things as Iguodala, when they could have selected DeMarcus Cousins and had a center for the next 10 years. They do have a young, promising point guard in Jrue Holiday, but he will experience a few years of growing pains before his potential is realized. The Sixers are deluding themselves if they think they’re going to be competitive with this group. They would be better off rebuilding. And the most bizarre part about it is that new team President Rod Thorn thinks he’s got a better chance to turn this group around than his former 12 win mess in New Jersey. What’s even crazier is that Thorn is probably right. Which leads us to…..

New Jersey Nets- The Nets are operating under the premise that it can’t get any worse than last season. That would be difficult. Unfortunately, after their disaster of an off season, it’s not getting much better anytime soon. In an attempt to refrain from kicking the Nets while they’re down, I’m going to gloss over the fact that Carmelo Anthony refused to allow himself to be traded to Jersey by declining their offer of a contract extension. However, the bottom line for the Nets is that they had a miserable off season. They spent an absurd amount of money on Travis Outlaw. Anthony Morrow isn’t solving any problems and Johan Petro creates them. Jordan Farmar is a nice addition, but he’s stuck behind Devin Harris. And speaking of Harris, the Nets are about to bear the brunt of the dysfunctional relationship between Harris and their new head coach Avery Johnson. Johnson was Harris’ coach in Dallas and was thrilled to get rid of him then. When the cameras are on, Johnson tells the world Harris is like a son to him. Yet, when Harris’ name is constantly coming up in trade rumors, rest assured that Johnson is the engine driving that bus. Johnson wants Harris gone and will tell anyone who will listen, when he thinks he’s speaking off the record. But all of this doesn’t represent what I believe is the Nets worst problem. Jersey’s dirty little secret is that their supposed franchise center Brook Lopez is not that good. This Nets regime just like the last regime, have deemed Lopez untouchable. Don’t get me wrong. Lopez is a good player and a legitimate threat in the low post. But Lopez is heavy footed on defense, doesn’t pass out of double teams well and has proven to be an average rebounder at best. Furthermore, most league executives love him. The Nets biggest mistake is not understanding that Lopez will have more value to them off their team. Lopez can bring back a haul on the open market. Lopez is so well regarded around the league, he can be mentioned in a trade conversation for any player in the league not named Wade, Lebron, Kobe, or Durant. The bottom line is that the Nets won’t have this thing turned around until they make a bold move, like trading Lopez. And they better get working before their dirty little secret gets out.


Central Division (in predicted order of finish)


Chicago Bulls- The Bulls had a tremendous off season. They were able to turn one of their max cap slots into all star forward Carlos Boozer. They added key role players in Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer. And most importantly, they signed their athletic center Joakim Noah to a 5 year contract extension. This is undoubtedly a step in the right direction, despite losing Boozer to a broken hand until the beginning of December. As far as this season is concerned, the Bulls have not come quite far enough to be among the Eastern Conference elite. I wholeheartedly believe they will get there. But they are still a year or two away. If the Bulls make the conference finals, this season will have been an absolute success. For what it’s worth, in spite of their great off season, I feel the need to deride their GM Gar Forman and their president John Paxson for throwing away seasoned and versatile guard Kirk Hinrich and a mid first round pick, just for the privilege of chasing someone to play with Lebron James, who they never got. Paxson and Forman aced Professor Donnie Walsh’s class on how to throw away contributors and first round draft pick to chase an impossible dream.

Milwaukee Bucks- The Bucks were last season’s cute little surprise. This year, the stakes get higher and the group the Bucks have assembled should be up to the task. All Star center Andrew Bogut will be back, although not 100% healthy. The Bucks added some key parts in the off season. Wing player Corey Maggette will be a great fit if he manages to stay on the court. Drew Gooden and rookie Larry Sanders (hey now) will give the Bucks a few big forwards to help Bogut, which they didn’t have last year. They will have John Salmons for an entire season and Brandon Jennings should be a year better. Unfortunately, in the East, the best they can do is be a pain in someone’s rump in the second round. For the Bucks, that will represent progress. Head coach Scott Skiles has the group buying in and moving in the right direction. Fear the Deer.


Indiana Pacers- As each new season approaches, I always find myself falling into the same trap and predicting some progress for the Pacers. Each new season, the Pacers disappoint and prove me wrong by stinking up the joint. So, where does that leave me this year? I never learn. I think the Pacers are a playoff team in the East this season. Team president Larry Bird has done a tremendous job building a balanced, fundamentally sound roster. The one spot where Indiana suffered last season was point guard. Last year’s starter, T.J. Ford, was the worst starting point guard in the NBA this side of Chris Duhon. Bird stood pat at last year’s trade deadline because he didn’t get what he felt to be a quality offer for Troy Murphy’s expiring contract. So he held onto Murphy until the off season and got rewarded for his patience. He traded Murphy in an elaborate 4 way trade that brought second year point guard Darren Collison to Indiana. Collison is an excellent point guard prospect. He defends very well and can both pass and score. He has a turnover problem he needs to work on, but he is a young productive player and a great fit in Indiana. So much of Indiana’s success will depend upon the unselfishness of their best player, Danny Granger. Granger came into the league has a hard working player who could defend as well as score. He’s evolved into a high volume low percentage shooter who treats defense as a convenience. If Granger rediscovers his unselfishness, it will go a long way in finally seeing some earnest progress in Indiana.


Detroit Pistons- In Rocky 3, Rocky Balboa looks at Adrian on the beach in the penultimate scene and asks, “How did everything that was so good, get so bad?” Pistons fans have every right to ask the same question. Detroit GM Joe Dumars has loused up this organization up and down the line. And the craziest part about it is that he had actually set things up for the Pistons to rebound quickly as their championship core from 2004 progressed into the back nine of their respective careers. Dumars made a very unpopular but financially clever deal early in the 2008-2009 season by sending popular and accomplished point guard Chauncey Billups to Denver for the eccentric Allen Iverson and his expiring contract. With Rasheed Wallace’s contract also expiring after that season, Dumars had set the Pistons up to be big players in the big free agency frenzy of 2010. Here is where Joe D drove the train off the tracks. Instead of holding the cap room until there were worthy players available, Dumars emptied his barrel by signing undersized guard/chucker Ben Gordon and soft power forward Charlie Villanueva to matching $10 million per year contracts. Gordon got 5 years. Joe D was more frugal with Villanueva giving him 4 years. Gordon was unable to stay healthy all year and was ineffective when he played. Villanueva was quite adept at updating his Twitter account frequently, but fell short in terms of making an impact on the court. So where does that leave the Pistons for this coming season. Their head coach John Kuester, who I’m not very impressed with ( as detailed here http://hoopscritic.blogspot.com/2009_07_01_archive.html) has a very difficult balancing act ahead of him. Kuester needs to give enough playing time to holdovers Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton so Dumars can showcase them to other teams in hopes of moving one or both of them for a meaningful asset. At the same time Kuester needs to get their promising young wing players Austin Daye and DaJuan Summers some significant minutes so they can develop and Dumars can see if these kids can play. So what does Joe D do? He decides to sign the thoroughly washed up Tracy McGrady to a one year deal. The same Tracy McGrady that looked like he needed a walker to get onto the court last season for the Knicks. The bad news for Pistons fans is that despite drafting a good player in Georgetown big man Greg Monroe, there are not enough good players on this team…and the coach is bad too. The good news is that it appears as though Mike Ilitch, the owner of the Detroit Tigers and Detroit Red Wings, is planning on buying the Pistons from the Davidson family. This could very well translate into changes at general manager and coach which would be a good thing. Rarely is the guy who made the mess the right guy to clean the mess and Dumars is no exception. It’s another non playoff season of anti-competitive basketball in Detroit.


Cleveland Cavaliers- It would be bad form to pile on the Cavaliers after the devastation that this organization experienced in the off season. We can debate all year about how much the Cavs are culpable for Lebron’s exit, but it doesn’t change the fact that he took his talents to South Beach. In the wake of Lebron’s departure, the Cavs really only have one choice about what direction they need to go. They need to break it down and start from scratch. The main focus before the trade deadline is to find takers for the contracts of Antawn Jamison, Mo Williams, an Anderson Varejao. There should be a healthy market for Varejao. Jamison and Williams will be much tougher to get rid of. This team, should be built around J.J. Hickson. They refused to move him to make Lebron’s Cavs better, so I would say they’re committed to him. They should also find out if young players Danny Green and Christian Eyenga can play. In most unfortunate fashion, the Cavaliers are going back to the days of being the Cleveland Cadavers for a few years. And by the way, Cavs owner Dan Gilbert needs to be very patient with new head coach Byron Scott. Scott walked into miserable situations in his first two jobs in New Jersey and New Orleans. He turned those around quickly. Scott is not the best tactical coach and can wear of players’ nerves after a few years, but he demands a lot from his players and guys get better on his watch.


Southeast Division (in predicted order of finish)


Miami Heat- Are they going to be great? Duh!!! This will be an outstanding regular season team that will win a minimum of 60 games. They are going to be fun to watch and will attract paparazzi like attention where ever they go. But will they win the title this year? I’m not so sure. I don’t think they did such a great job assembling pieces around their three South Beach Super Heroes ( after all,….they joined forces to be together…). Their best 5 players is a group without a true center and without a true point guard. They won’t beat Boston that way and will have their hands full against the Magic. Miami’s best five players are Superman, Batman, Aquaman, Mike Miller, and Udonis Haslem. That lineup forces Bosh or Haslem to play center which makes them too small. And that lineup forces Wade to defend a point guard, which is not the most efficient use of Wade. Speaking of Wade, his, shall we say, inconsistency on defense the last two seasons has been something that Heat management has looked the other way from primarily because he was becoming a free agent. Now that he’s re-signed and he got to bring his friends with him, it will be interesting to see if he decides to renew his commitment to the defensive end of the floor. The Heat will be great and they’ve given the league a villain and a traveling event all rolled into one. But, as currently constituted, they’re not going to be able to win a playoff series against Boston or the Lakers.

Orlando Magic- The Magic have a very interesting challenge ahead of them for this coming season. How do find a way to improve as a unit when management hasn’t made any appreciable upgrades to the personnel? They added Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson and only subtracted Matt Barnes. So the answer to their question is to focus on the improvement of individual players. The two guys that can really upgrade their games to make the Magic better are Dwight Howard and J.J. Redick. Howard has done off season work with Hakeem Olajuwon. Howard does not need work on his defense and rebounding. He needs help offensively in the post. My biggest criticism of Howard’s post game is that he invited double teams as opposed to forcing them. When he catches a pass in the post, he has a habit of holding or dribbling the ball in place while waiting to begin a move. This gives the defense time to make a choice on whether to double him or not. If he makes his move quickly, he forces the defense to make a faster decision, which gives Howard the advantage. This will also make the decision of when to pass out of a double team easier to make, which is Howard’s other weakness. Redick, on the other hand gave us a glimpse of the type of impact wing player he could be in last year’s playoffs. He has become a tenacious defender and is still a dead eye shooter. He has also developed his athleticism and conditioning to a point where he is a perfect fit for how Orlando wants to play. The thing about the Magic is this. They were an excellent regular season team last year and will be an excellent regular season team this year. The Magic struggled last year in the playoffs because they didn’t play fast enough for the lineup that coach Stan Van Gundy employs. By playing Rashard Lewis at big forward most of the time, Orlando is a little small to match up with the Celtics. This would be okay, if they were completely committed to pushing the tempo all the time. But point guard Jameer Nelson was more interested in slowing down the tempo so he could run the pick and roll. And it didn’t seem like Stan Van Gundy was emphasizing a speedy tempo as much as he should have. If the Magic end up matched up with one of the big, elite teams, and they choose to play slow, Van Gundy has to play long stretches with Howard and his secret weapon, 7 footer Marcin Gortat, on the floor together. If they get caught in the half court with a small lineup, they are way too susceptible to the perimeter whims of Nelson and Vince Carter. But Stan has always been set in his ways, so there’s no reason to think he’ll change. I see the Magic with a 55 win season and a 2nd round playoff exit.


Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks did something this off season that they rarely do. They spent money and lots of it. They re-signed Joe Johnson to a 6 year max contract. The problem is that Johnson was probably the wrong guy to pay that kind of money. As the years have passed, Johnson has become less of a well rounded player and more of a high volume, low percentage shooter who doesn’t defend all that well. Unfortunately for the Hawks, they, like Orlando, were unable to make any kind of meaningful roster upgrades. They are working feverishly to sign young big man Al Horford to a long term contract. The franchise is looking to build a perennial winner around Johnson, Horford, and Josh Smith, who they extended last year. They are also steadfastly refusing to extend all-world chucker Jamal Crawford, which shows that they are in tune with what they need. Second year guard Jeff Teague should fill Crawford’s role cheaper and much more efficiently. The bad news in all of this for the Hawks is that they haven’t gotten much better in a conference where the top teams improved significantly. So, although there is a future here, this roster will still only translate into a first round playoff loss.

Washington Wizards-The Wizards are much closer to having last year’s disaster turned around than they deserve. GM Ernie Grunfeld overplayed his hand last year by trading the #5 pick in the draft for two bench players in Randy Foye and Mike Miller who were much closer to being part of the problem than being part of the solution. Ernie’s indigestion really hit high gear when the pick he traded turned out to be Ricky Rubio. And just when Ernie thought it couldn’t get any worse, Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenden tried to turn the Wizards locker room into the final scene of Scarface. Ernie’s decision to break it down at the trade deadline and unload Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, and Brendan Haywood was clearly the right one. And the hoop gods rewarded him with the winning ping pong ball in the draft lottery and the prestigious honor to draft can’t miss point guard John Wall. Wall is a superb athlete that will be one of the best in the league at the position once he learns the nuances. But Ernie didn’t stop there. He rented some cap space to the Chicago Bulls for Kirk Hinrich and a first round pick that ended up being big man Kevin Seraphin. Hinrich will be a fantastic mentor to Wall who should offset any negative influence that emanates from the toxic Arenas. Ernie also may have pulled off a coup in renting more cap space to the Nets for disappointing forward Yi Jianlian. Yi has had an excellent off season and looked like a different player for China in the World Championships. With his contract expiring at the end of the season, the Wizards get a free look. The Wiz may not be good enough to make the playoffs this season, but their time as a lottery team will be short. They’ve got plenty of better days ahead and soon.

Charlotte Bobcats- With the way the Bobcats are set up for this season, I have to figure that head coach Larry Brown makes it no further than the All-Star break without gargling Drano. They lost their point guard Raymond Felton to free agency and Larry trusts last year’s backup D.J. Augustin about as much as Elin Nordegren trusts Tiger Woods. His other choices are Shawn Livingston, who already is having pain in his surgically repaired knee and Javaris “Quick Draw” Crittenden. On top of this, the Bobcats have chosen to get in bed with some bad attitudes who they desperately need to be key players. In the right situation, Stephen Jackson and Tyrus Thomas are major contributors. Jackson can carry the load and Thomas is a young athletic big with a ton of upside. But if the wheels start falling off, these two will turn on Larry faster than a race car on a tight turn. The Bobcats made their maiden playoff appearance last season. But their inability to upgrade the roster in a meaningful way is going to put them right back in the lottery.


Playoff Seeds

1) Miami
2) Boston
3) Chicago
4) Orlando
5) Milwaukee
6) Atlanta
7) New York
8) Indiana

First Round

Miami over Indiana
Boston over New York
Chicago over Atlanta
Orlando over Milwaukee

Second Round

Miami over Orlando
Boston over Chicago

East Finals

Boston over Miami


As much as the Heat have done to build a championship team, this coming season is going to function more as a learning experience. Management will learn exactly what needs to be put in place around the James, Wade, and Bosh. And James, Wade, and Bosh will learn what it takes to play the type of physical, fundamental basketball it takes to win a title. Now before you say it, I know Wade has won one already. But he was a different player then. He was more fearless and a little more athletic than he is now. But the most important thing is that he had Shaq at the tail end of his prime. The Celtics now have an over the hill version of Shaq. However, Shaq at this stage of his career is exactly what the Celtics need to keep their status as Eastern kings. This incarnation of the Heat will win a title or two….but not so fast.

I’ll be back next week with my West preview. Giddyap. Y’all be cool.