Late Night Wars


There's lots of coverage out there over who is hosting who's late night talk show. Frankly, I could care less about Jay Leno or Conan O'Brien. (did his parents really name him, Conan??). I've always been a Letterman guy myself. So, a few times a year, I swipe my man Dave's copyright on the Top Ten list, and I bust out a few myself, NBA style.

Top Ten Observations about the Eastern Conference

10) The most unlikely productive marriage I've seen in the league all year is Stephen Jackson and Larry Brown in Charlotte. Jackson has become the straw that stirs the drink for Larry's overachieving team. Since Jackson got to Charlotte, he's been defending hard and playing Larry's way. I've got to give Larry credit. He's found a way over the years for getting very productive leadership out of certified mental pateints like Allen Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, and now Jackson. Tells you everything you need to know about Stephon Marbury.

9)If the Toronto Raptors can get Andrew Bynum for Chris Bosh beyween now and the trade deadline, they should not think twice. Even if Bosh promises the Raptors that he intends to stay, they should still move him. Bosh may be afforded a unique, once ion a career opportunity to join Dwyane Wade or LeBron James and compete for a title every year' Expecting that not to be seductive for a 25 year old emerging star is extremely naive on the Raptors' part. If given a choice between playing deep into the playoffs every spring with a league MVP or freezing your buppy off in a hockey town with Handsome Hedo Turkoglu, what would you do? If the Raptors can find someone to take Handsome Hedo off their books, Bynum and Bargnani are promising young bigs to build around. If the Raptors do decide to trade Bosh, it wouldn't surprise me to see Handsome Hedo go to Cleveland (Hedo and Amir Johnson's expiring contract for Hickson and Ilgauskas' expiring contract)...just saying....

8) Despite Orlando's struggles lately, I still like what I see. Head coach Stan Van Gundy has a plan and the Magic to me are still my favorite to win the Eastern Conference. The issues Stan has had with Vince Carter have a very promising light at the end of the tunnel. When the playoffs begin, Stan will have Vince playing it the Van Gundy way. When Carter wants to, he can be a productive team player. The challenge has always been shot selection with Vince. And Van Gundy is well aware of this. The other move Van Gundy has made which I like is inserting forward Matt Barnes into the starting lineup. This move Mikael Pietrus back to the bench, where Pietrus is more effective. And since Barnes is a better rebounder, it gives center Dwight Howard help on the glass that Howard doesn't get from stretch power forward Rashard Lewis.

7) David Lee is having a very productive year for the New York Knicks. But unfortunately for the Knicks, all that is really going to help is David Lee. The Knicks had brought Lee back on a one year deal for this season. They will have a decision to make after this year on Lee and after the year Lee is having, he won't be cheap. But the larger issue is that if the Knicks are committed to 21 year old second year player Danilo Gallinari, there's no place for Lee on the court. Knick coach Mike D'Antoni is trying to get away with playing Lee and Gallinari together this season, and surprise, surprise.... he's not getting away with it. The Knicks are an awful defensive team around the rim. Both Lee and Gallinari are power forwards, and neither of them masquerades very well as a center. Watching teams with decent size just have their way with the Knicks inside. Bosh and Bargnani, Garnett and Perkins, Lopez and Yi, it doesn't matter. With these two guys playing together, the paint is like a subway turnstile. The one that will go will be Lee. Managment considers Gallinari a cornerstone. And just to be recklessly speculative, Lee might fit in quite well as Amare Stoudemire's replacement in Phoenix.

6) The Atlanta Hawks are clearly good enough to compete for the Eastern Conference title. Al Horford and Josh Smith are as imposing a front line as there is. As I've written many times, Joe Johnson is the most unrecognized star in the league. And as much as it pains me to admit, they've gotten excellent guard play from Mike Bibby and chucker extraordinaire Jamal Crawford. They are the Celtcis worst nightmare. And as sacreligious as this sounds, this might just be the year the Celtics significantly lose the Kevin Garnett-Josh Smith matchup. KG is clearly on the back nine of his career and Smith is just learning everything he''s capable of on the basketball court.

5) The Chicago Bulls are not dead yet. As much as I really have not been overly enthralled with Derrick Rose's 2nd year in the league, he is starting to carry this team offensively. I truly believe that Rose ultimately will max out his pro potential by being more of a distributing type of pure point guard. But as long as Bull coach Vinny Del Negro chooses to play Kirk Hinrich next to Rose in the backcourt, Rose can get away with a little more shooting because Hinrich is also a willing distributor. Furthermore, Bull center Joakim Noah is developing into an extremely effective big man. And it is not lost on this writer that the two of the three best centers in the Eastern Conference won two national championships together playing for the University of Florida. Al Horford and Noah are a new, young athletic brand of center who can thrive in an up tempo system and in the half court.

4) Do you think the Celtics made a mistake with this Rasheed Wallace signing? Is the pope Catholic? Not only is Wallace perpetually firing three pointers, while hitting very few of them, his volatile nature runs the risk of poisoning the Celtics team chemistry. And if thats not enough, Rasheed hasn't been saying no to too many buffets lately. Either he's been taking nutrition tips from Shaq, or he's just become the guy that ate Rasheed Wallace. Either way, without a healthy Garnett, Wallace is not a suitable replacement. And while I'm on the topic, I wonder aloud why the Celtics don't shut Garnett down for the next 20 games. They most likely will not fall below a 4 seed in the East. And regardless of home court, they'll still have to beat two of Cleveland, Orlando, and Atlanta to get to the Finals. A healthy Garnett is of much more value to Boston than an extra playoff home game.

3) One of the better coaching jobs being done in the league this year is Scott Skiles in Milwaukee. In spite of the presence of exciting rookie point guard Brandon Jennings is not blessed with a ton of talent. Nis best offensive player, Michael Redd, is out for the season. He has a good, hard working center in Andrew Bogut. He's got Jennings, who is still very much a work in progress, and he's got a second good young point guard in Luke Ridnour. Ridnour has made significant progress from last year to this year. His defense has improved. He's a better shooter, and a better decision maker. Skiles has been giving teams matchup fits by playing Jennings and Ridnour together at crunch time. Beyond these guys, Skiles has a bunch of spare parts. He's finding a way to get these to compete night in and night out. If they keep Skiles around in Milwaulee for the long haul, he will be a big part of a turnaround. He's enacted a culture change and it would behoove the Bucks to allow him to finish what he started.

2) The Cleveland Cavaliers still strike me as a team that is built more for a successful regular season and less designed to win in a long playoff series. There is no disputing that the league's most dominanat player leads the Cavaliers. LeBron James is as effective a player in every facet of the game that we may ever see in our lifetime. But one player does not a team make. Besides LeBron, the Cavs level of athleticism is putrid. That is why Jamario Moon looms as such an important player for Cleveland. He gives them athleticism they don't get anywhere else. Anderson Varejao has some athleticism for a 6'10" player, but in the East they need more. The Hawks roll big time athletes at you like Al Horford, Josh Smith, and Joe Johnson. The Magic show you Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Vince Carter. Even the Celtics challenge a little athletically with Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo. On Cleveland, its LeBron, the Fat Man, and a couple fo shooters. If the Cavs can add Antawn Jamison or Andre Igoudala, it becomes a different story. Even handsome Hedo Turkoglu would help. But as is, the Cavs don't have enough. And of they don't get there this year, the next sound they may hear is the door hitting Lebron in his ample backside on his way out.

1) And my number one observation about the Eastern Conference is that the Nets will win at least 10 games and not set the futility record for mosses in a season set by the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers. As bad a coach as Kiki Vandeweghe is and as much of a dog that Devin Harris has become, there are enough competitive guys in that locker room that they will not quit. And as the season winds down, there will be plenty of team the Nets play that will have quit. As crazy as it sounds, the Nets have something to play for.

Without further adieu....my Top Ten Observations about the Western Conference


10) The most exciting story in the West this season is clearly the Memphis Grizzlies. Since starting the season 1-8, the Grizzlies have won 24 of 36 and are currently seeded 7th in the Western Conference. They have a wealth of very talented offensive players in Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, O.J. Mayo, and Marc Gasol. But what has characterized their emergence as a legitimate playoff contender is their selflessness and work ethic. Gasol lost a ton of weight in the offseason and does all the little things you like your center to do. He's big, physical and highly skilled. Randolph has been a well behaved version of himself. Randolph scores and rebounds like a madman. And he'll lay his body put defensively. What Z-Bo doesn't like to do is share the rock with anyone else. But because Gay and Mayo have checked their egos at the door and have been more than willing to give up the ball, the team has flourished with Randolph as the offensive centerpiece. The great thing for the Grizzlies is that they have not asked much of their bench which consists of Sam Young, Hasheeem Thabeet, and Jamaal Tinsley. And make no mistake. when called upon, the Grizzlies' bench is more than capable. And a big shout out to Memphis head coach Lionel Hollins who has gotten this group to buy in.

9) The Rockets would have been better off keeping Ron Artest than bringing in Trevor Ariza. Granted Ariza is younger, but the reality is that Ariza is much more efficient as a role player than as a facilitator. And if you're going to play off guard next to a point guard like Aaron Brooks, you need to fucntion more as a distributor than a shooter. Frankly, Ariza plays as if he doesn't know what he is. He seems to pass up good shots and hoist bad ones. He also tends to dominate the ball and dribble too much. In the meantime, Artest has upgraded the Lakers team defense in a big way. And although Ron is not asked to do as much offensively for the Lakers, he takes the toughest wing matchup night in and night out allowing Kobe Bryant to have easier defensive matchups, giving Kobe more energy to focus on the offensive end. That is a factor that is not minor for the Lakers, which begs my next question.....

8) Which individual within the Lakers organization is making the decision to allow Kobe Bryant to continue to play every night with a broken finger and a bad back? It is extremely admirable of Bryant to want to gut his way through games with his injuries. But the reality is that Kobe is laboring out there. And as much as the Lakers would like to secure the first seed in the West, much like the Celtics with Kevin Garnett, it is much more imperative that the Lakers have Bryant healthy than having home court advantage. Frankly, the Lakers have more than enough talent to stay very competitive in the West without Bryant for 5-10 games. But without Bryant in the playoffs, the Lakers are burnt to a crisp. And if they need to find a little extra rest for Artest's plantar fasciatis or Pau Gasol's groin, it needs to happen. The priority for the Lakers must be the health of their best four players. (Bryant, Gasol, Artest, and Odom.) Just ask Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, who kept Tim Duncan in street clothes on the second night of a back to back two weeks ago for the sole purpose of resting him. Its good policy to understand that healthy stars win road games in the playoffs and teams with injured stars struggle to win home games. If Kobe Bryant doesn't want to sit, someone within the Lakers organization needs to tell him to. The most logical candidate is Laker coach Big Chief Triangle.

7) Speaking of the Spurs, this Richard Jefferson thing doesn't appear to be working out too well. Jefferson has spent much of the first half of the season in and out of Popovich's dog house. He looks legitimately uncomfortable sharing the ball and not consistently taking bad shots. His defensive intensity tends to fade in and out. Thank god for the Spurs that George Hill has developed as nicely as he has. Hill gives them a more than capable backup to Tony Parker and doubles as a very athletic wing player giving the Spurs some much needed athleticism. The Spurs will need every bit of Hill's athleticism and Jefferson playing at his best if they have any chance to come out of the West...and that's assuming they stay healthy.

6) Speaking of staying healthy, in watching Dirk Nowitzki play lately it appears the big fella's elbow isn't totally healed. I watched him fall on it earlier this week in Phoenix and he protected that thing like a chicken favoring a wounded wing. The Mavericks are in the same boat as the Lakers with Kobe and the Celtics with Garnett. Dirk not healthy equals zero chance at a title. As it stands, they will have to go through two of L.A., San Antonio and Denver. A high seed would be nice, but Dirk at 100% is much better. And while I'm on the Mavs, I think they made a crucial error in resigning Jason Kidd for three years. He has become a defensive liability and does not push tempo as effectively as he used to. Dallas is a better team with J.J. Barea on the court. Barea plays stifling man to man defense and creates more than this ancient version of Kidd. I do believe that Dallas coach Rick Carlisle is aware of this fact. How deftly he manages Kidd's fragile ego with this will be something that bears watching for the Mavericks.

5) I'm very impressed with how far Kevin Durant's game has come. I did not expect him to be as effective defensively this early in his career. Imagine how good Oklahoma City would be if they selected Tyreke Evans in this past draft instead of James Harden? And while we're on the what ifs, Evans probably would have had the same effect on Memphis, who selected backup center Hasheem Thabeet, but I digress... I watched an Oklahoma City game earlier this week and regardless of how impressed I am with Durant's game, I do have an ongoing issue with him. He is painful to watch in high definition. He's got a face like a cobble stone driveway. Can someone recommend this guy a dermatologist. In high definition, he makes Handsome Hedo look like George Clooney. I don't mean to be unkind. He's a great young player, but the only endorements he's getting with that complexion is to hawk motor oil.

4) For as much heat that Minnesota GM David Kahn for drafting two point guards in succession in the first round of last year's draft, it was the right move then and remains the right move now in spite of the dismal season the Timberwolves are having. Ricky Rubio is still in Spain improving by leaps and bounds on somebody else's dime. When Rubio decides to come stateside, the product Kahn will be getting will be much more refined. And in the meantime, Kahn is learning that his other point guard, Jonny Flynn, may not have what it takes to be a big time point guard in the league. He's prone to turnovers, takes lots of bad shots and is having typical rookie defensive struggles. The Timberwolves are having a miserable year, but because of Kahn's boldness in last year's draft they are still prepared to make a big time turnaround in the next few years.

3) The Los Angeles Clippers are not cursed. They're just stupid. Stupidity had nothing to do with number one overall pick Blake Griffin going out for the year before ever playing a game. But if management thinks thats the only reason they stink this year, they are in denial. Building the franchise around Baron Davis is a tactical mistake. Davis routinely mails in games and has for years. When the going gets tough, Davis is nowhere to be found. He had 2/3rds of a productive year playing Nellie ball for Golden State where he wasn't required to defend, which was a good thing, because defense is not something that crosses his mind all that much. The Clippers should also be trading Marcus Camby for draft picks and young talent. The cap space that Camby's contract will create in the offseason will not matter because the Clippers have very little chance to attract a free agent. They should be building around Griffin and Eric Gordon and understand they should be gearing up to be competitive in 2 years. Instead they delude themselves into beleiving they can win now and permananetly reside with the Knicks and Pacers in NBA no man's land.

2) The Denver Nuggets just completed a string of games that should scare the living daylights out of everyone in the West. They just played four games in a row without MVP candidate Carmelo Anthony. They went 3-1 with road wins at Houston and at San Antonio. In early January they lost Anthony for 5 games and went 3-2. With Anthony out, they are forced to rely more on other players. And these other players are stepping up big time. Nene has been terrific. Kenyon Martin has stepped up. And Arron Afflalo and J.R. Smith have picked up a nice piece of the scoring load. This will be a great benefit to Denver come playoff time. Having your best player miss some regular season time can be a great benefit for a title contender. This is why I think the Lakers, Celtics and Mavericks are being foolish with Kobe, Garnett, and Dirk and why i think the Spurs have been smart with Duncan. The Nuggets are the team that the Lakers ought to be checking out like Mickey scoped out Clubber Lang in Rocky 3. The Lakers could be in for the fight of their life.

And my number one observation about the Western Conference is......

1) The problem with the Phoenix Suns lately has not ben Amare Stoudemire. Its Steve Nash. I know, it sounds like heresy. But Nash's skills are eroding in front of our eyes. He's always been a very poor defensive player. However, for the first time this season he's having increased difficulty getting off his own shot. This has lead to some bad shot selection and more turnovers. Rumor has it that the Suns are shopping Stoudemire. Stoudemire has been a round peg in a square hole for the Suns for years. He could thrive much more in a slower half court system. reportedly, the Suns have no desire to re-sign Stoudemire in the offseason, so they're trying to move him now. They would be better off signing Stoudemire to a max deal and seeing what kind of a market there is for Nash before its too late. There is definitely still a market for Nash, even with his extension kicking in next year. As sacreligious as it sounds, the Suns can get younger much quicker bringing back young players for Nash and handing the reins to 22 year old backup point guard Goran Dragic, who shows a lot of promise. Thats no a sentimental or popular thought. But in my estimation, its the right one.

Giddyap, y'all be cool.

New Logo, New URL, New Year, New Post......


Is there anything more fun in this world than being right?? Its clearly to me one of life's great pleasures. Since its been a good six weeks since I've written, I'd like to give my readers pleasure as I pleasure myself at the same time...(hey now). I'm going to use this column to follow up on my early season predictions I made in this very space. I promise that I will break my own arm patting myself on the back for some things. And for others, i will remind you all what a bufoon I truly can be. Nonetheless, prediction follow up is something we rarely see in the mainstream media. So, here goes......

I'm going to start with an easy one. I was correct in predicting what an absolute mess the Washington Wizards have become. And this was before Gilbert Arenas decided to play Billy the Kid in the Verizon Center locker room. . Two Wizard related questions to ponder.... Does Wiz GM Ernie Grunfeld wake up in a cold sweat dreaming of Ricky Rubio running the fast break for Minnesota?....And is there a bigger bad ass in sports than David Stern? The Don Corleone of commissioners placed a proverbial bloody horse head right in Arenas' bed. Don't mess with the Don.

And while I'm congratulating myself, I was also correct on the Miami Heat. Ultimately, its a one player team. Michael Beasley is developing some, but its essentially team Wade. And no team has a bigger upside and downside in this coming offseason free agent sweepstakes. If Wade stays, it will be because someone decided to join him (LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemre etc..) or Wade leaves and they get nothing. Pat Riley is another league executive who has a legitimate reason for grave concern.

As embarrassing as it is, I totally missed on my New York Knicks. I thought they would be downright atrocious and they've managed to ascend to barely mediocre. The good news is that they actually have 3 players who have a chance to be part of their future. David Lee has improved considerably and has seemed to rediscover his work ethic. Wilson Chandler has learned the defensive end of the floor and he is truly athletic enough to be a difference maker defensively. And Danilo Gallinari has shown signs of being an electric offense player at a young age. And while I'm on the subject, I think Knick coach Mike D'Antoni isn't using Gallo correctly. Having him play a wing and primarily shoot threes is a waste and will not develop Gallo's inside skills enough. Gallo is a high post player who can step out for threes. He is big, strong, and a fantastic scorer. He can be a star as a high post player. If used properly, he could be a dominant offensive player in the mold of Dirk Nowitzki. To be fair to D'Antoni, I'd like to commend him on his handling of future Harlem Globetrotter Nate Robinson. He has sufficiently humbled this sideshow act to the point where Robinson conducts himself on the court like a professional ballplayer. Unfortunately, the next guy Nate defends will be his first, but I digress.

I was really really really wrong about the woeful New Jersey Nets. Very frankly, the most disappointing player in the entire league has been Net guard Devin Harris. His game has seemed to lack fire. He's not the greatest team player and has seemed to lose any shred of killer instinct that he's had. And as good as Brook Lopez is developing, he has been remarkably slow in learning what to do out of double teams. In all fairness, the Nets have the sorriest assembly of perimeter shooters I've seen in this league in along time. And as much as I respect Net president Rod Thorn as a team executive, he exercised the most futile gesture in the league this season in firing Lawrence Frank.

My prediction that the Cavalier-Shaq marriage would be an abject failure is on its way to fruition. All you need to know about that is that neither the Cavs best small unit and the Cavs best unit do not have Shaq in it. And besides LeBron, the most important Cav players to stay healthy are Anderson Varejao and Jamario Moon. I never thought I'd write that last sentence. And if they can manage to add Antawn Jamison from the Wizards' pending fire sale, they might just have a chance to compete for the Eastern Conference title.

I completely blew it on the Bulls. They have taken three giant steps backwards since their classic first round series last season versus the Kevin Garnett-less Celtics. The only reason head coach Vinny Del Negro has not lost his job yet is because they haven't found anyone to take it and team president John Paxson doesn't want to do it himself. Del Negro's biggest failure has been his inability to get through to 2nd year point guard Derrick Rose. Rose has taken a big step backwards this year. He has become a high volume shooter and a reluctant passer and defender. Del Negro has not gotten him to understand that he didn't have to try and be Ben Gordon to replace Ben Gordon.

And while I'm talking about Ben Gordon, I was absolutely correct on the miserable Detroit Pistons. Piston GM Joe Dumars assembled a roster only Isiah Thomas could be proud of then hired a lifetime assistant in John Kuester who would have trouble managing a 7-11. What Dumars has is one of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference loaded with untradable long term contracts, most of them being guys who play the same position. This may end up being the end of the road for Dumars in Detroit. This disaster may exhaust the rest of the goodwill capital Dumars built with the 2003-04 championship.

My prediction for the Indiana Pacers this season was a total miss. They are currently 12-25 and going nowhere. I thought they had an interesting, versatile roster. But Danny Granger went from being an up and coming star into a high volume shooter who is disinterested in defense. T.J. Ford is not a starting NBA guard. And head coach Jim O'Brien tends to coach this team like he has no clue what he's going to get from certain guys on a nightly basis, which is the case. Mike Dunleavy has been slow to return to form after a knee injury. Troy Murphy has been inconsistent. Rookie Tyler Hansbrough has been the Pacers' most consistent player. Indiana needs to be sellers at the trade deadline. Its time for Pacer president Larry Bird to gut the whole operation.

I completely whiffed on the Atlanta Hawks. I figured the Hawks might fall victim to some of their moderate playoff success over the last two seasons. Combine that with the pending free agency of their best player Joe Johnson and the presence of all-world chucker Jamal Crawford, and I thought things would get tough. Instead, they have played like a top tier team. Center Al Horford has developed into a very unselfish, physical big man. Josh Smith is one of the most athletic big forwards in the league. Crwaford has actually been a very productive scoring guard off the bench. And Johnson is turning in another routine stellar season. Head coach Mike Woodson does one of the most underrated jobs in the league with this team. They are officially the Cetics worst nightmare come playoff time.

I'll close it out with a giant pat on the back for my correct call on the success of the Phoenix Suns. One can never underrate how much a team can be helped merely by the removal of a 400 lb washed up Hall of Fame championship center who is the only one that doesn't realize that he's just not an asset on the court anymore. Without Shaq, the Suns have rediscovered their identity as an up tempo team. They probably won't make a deep playoff run because there are at least 4 better half court teams in the West, and the playoffs are more of a half court game. However, this success could increase their chances of keeping Amare Stoudemire in the offseason with free agency around the corner. Lots of credit here should also go to head coach Alvin Gentry, who has his guys playing a system perfectly tailored to their roster.


Back next week with more predictions for the second half of the season. Giddyap. Y'all be cool.