Western Conference Preview- Oh Baby! Part 2
Doing a Western Conference Preview for this coming season is almost like throwing darts at a board. There is a wealth of good teams and the degrees of separation are miniscule. These circumstances do not make me any less opinionated. What fun would that be? Let’s get it on.
Northwest Division (in predicted order of finish)
Oklahoma City Thunder- The Thunder did not make any significant roster upgrades in the off season unless you count Cole Aldrich…and I don’t. The Thunder are another one of those teams who will need to improve by getting improvement from individual players on their roster. Fortunately, for them, they’re loaded with these types of players. The most obvious example is Kevin Durant. Durant’s domination in the World Championships over the summer was stunning. Besides being able to score at will, his defense as ascended to a level where he is a shutdown perimeter defender. The Thunder will be better because Durant will be a lot better. It’s almost boring to gush about Durant because of the volume of superlatives that apply. As of six months ago, I wasn’t completely sold on him as player who can lead his team to a title….oops. On the other hand, it’s plenty exciting to gush about Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook. Westbrook was virtually unguardable at times during the Thunder’s first round playoff loss to the Lakers last season. But he added an entirely new dimension to his game over the summer in the World Championships when he emerged as one of the U.S. team’s best defenders. Keep in mind that Durant is only 22 and Westbrook is only 21. The Thunder have a big decision to make when the season ends on forward Jeff Green’s expiring contract. My call is to let him go and look to get bigger and stronger up front. Green will not be cheap, and the Thunder have the type of core that would be attractive to a veteran big who can help get this team over the hump. There are too many nights for Oklahoma City where Green is overmatched by a bigger or stronger player. (think Dirk, Boozer, Gasol etc…) Even in this day and age of basketball, a team still needs quality size to be a champion. Because of that, the best the Thunder can hope for this season is a trip to the Conference finals, if that.
Portland Trailblazers- From a developmental standpoint, the Blazers have not made much progress the last two seasons. Despite a young talented core, the Blazers have not been able to make it out of the first round of the playoffs two years running. Their undoing has been primarily due to injuries, but there have certainly been some chemistry issues along the way. This season’s version of the Blazers is probably the deepest we’ve seen of late. However, all of the same questions remain. Can Greg “Benjamin Button” Oden stay healthy? Are Andre Miller and Brandon Roy going to figure out how to work well together? Can Nicholas Batum stay healthy enough to stay on the court? Will Rudy Fernandez shot selection, shoddy defense, penchant for turnovers, and general unhappiness be a distraction? Can head coach Nate McMillan keep everyone happy, healthy, and together? The favorable collective outcomes of these questions will dictate how successful the Blazers season will be. I see these questions being answered as follows: There is no way Oden can stay healthy. After the pictures of him on the internet surfaced earlier this year, Oden is actually more likely to appear in an X-rated movie before he plays in an NBA final. I think Miller is too surly to alter his game enough to fit in with Roy. I actually do believe that Batum can stay healthy enough to stay on the court. And he will undoubtedly be a defensive force. Rudy Fernandez’ entire presence will be a continuing distraction for Portland. Portland’s stubbornness in not cutting their losses with Fernandez could haunt them all season. Especially when you factor in that Fernandez isn’t all that good. And I don’t think that McMillan can keep everyone happy or healthy. But McMillan will keep them together…together enough to make the playoffs with a relatively early exit.
Utah Jazz- For a team that made some key changes in personnel, this year’s Jazz team will look an awful lot like last year’s team. The Jazz chose not to re-sign Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, and Wesley Matthews. And they replaced those three with Al Jefferson, first round pick Gordon Hayward, and veteran Raja Bell. Jefferson is not as good as Boozer, but he will replace Boozer’s scoring. Hayward will probably not be as good a shooter as Korver, but his game is more diverse and he’s got a great future. Bell is a better defender than Matthews, but much older and much more injury prone. The net effect of all of this as far as the win column is concerned is neutral. With Jerry Sloan as the head coach, this team will always defend and play hard. And with Deron Williams as the starting point guard, this team will not have a problem scoring points. But the bottom line is that the Jazz are just another good team in the West. Because of the depth in the West, the best the Jazz can do is win one playoff round, just like last season.
Denver Nuggets- In the final scene of the movie Animal House, the Deltas systematically destroy the homecoming parade. Kevin Bacon plays a college student who is working at the parade as a security guard in one of his first movie roles ever. As the parade is slowly becoming a total disaster, Bacon repeatedly utters the term, “all is well, remain calm.” Each time he makes this declaration, there is more and more panic in his voice. The final time that Bacon recites this mantra, he screams it as he stomps his feet…about 3 seconds before he gets trampled by a mob. I impart this little anecdote because each and every time I’ve heard Denver head coach George Karl comment about the upcoming season, he sounds more and more like Kevin Bacon in Animal House. This is an organization that is at a crossroads, to say the least. Carmelo Anthony wants out, and for all intents and purposes has given the Nuggets only one destination where he would be willing to sign an extension. And since the Knicks are painfully aware that they are the apple of Anthony’s eye, they have steadfastly refused to offer Denver their best young asset in Danilo Gallinari, although there are rumblings that the Knicks are softening that stance. Denver’s continued dalliance with New Jersey is only to create the illusion of leverage against the Knicks. As distasteful as it is to Karl, the Nuggets need to get rid of Anthony sooner rather than later. I don’t blame George for trying to keep this together for another run. The Nuggets were a few mental meltdowns away from actually knocking off the Lakers in the 2009 West final. And Karl missed last year’s playoffs while he battled cancer. The point that seems to be eluding Karl is that this Nugget team is not the same team he went to the finals with, although most of the names and faces are the same. Point guard Chauncey Billups is almost two years older and is not the athlete he was. Kenyon Martin’s knee has gotten progressively worse and probably isn’t getting better, which severely compromises him. He won’t be starting the season. Chris “Birdman” Anderson’s athleticism has been compromised by a chronic bad knee. He won’t be starting the season either. And starting center Nene is recovering from knee surgery to repair a tear he sustained in last year’s playoffs. Heck, Karl doesn’t even work for the same guy anymore. GM Mark Warkentien was replaced by 39 year old Masai Ujiri. Warkentien, after winning Executive of the Year in 2009, got canned with assistant GM Rex Chapman for fighting with one another. There is a good reason that Anthony wants to leave. The more they wait to move him, the harder it will be. And, when that is done, they need to get working on moving Billups. They’ll be a big market for him. The faster Denver breaks it down, the faster they can turn it around. Denver needs to understand a stark reality of today;s NBA. If you’re not competing for a title, you need to be rebuilding. They’ve got a great start with second year point guard Ty Lawson. In the meantime, no matter how fast or slow Denver starts to rebuild, they will have a representative in May in Secaucus, NJ anxiously hoping to win the draft lottery.
Minnesota Timberwolves- Unfortunately for Minnesota, all talk about the state of their franchise starts and ends with GM David Kahn. My mother would describe Kahn as the cow who gives milk and kicks over the can. For every decent or bold move Kahn makes, he then makes a counter move that is so asinine, he could work in Congress. Last season’s version of Kahn’s madness had to do with drafting not one, but two pick and roll point guards, then hiring a coach (Kurt Rambis) who employs the triangle offense. This year’s version of the rollercoaster known as Kahn contained the Michael Beasley heist, Darko Milicic’s grand larceny, the trading of Al Jefferson for a dirty pair of sweat socks, and the efficient signing of Luke Ridnour. In spite of Kahn…and because of him, the Timberwolves have accumulated some interesting assets. Wesley Johnson, Kevin Love, the aforementioned Beasley, Johnny Flynn, Corey Brewer, and the rights to Ricky Rubio is an interesting core for a resourceful GM to work from. And considering the fact that there is absolutely no way that the Wolves can even compete to approach the playoffs, there will be another lottery pick in the offing as well. Minnesota owner Glen Taylor would be very wise after this season, but before the draft, to thank Mr. Kahn for his service to the organization and bring in a GM who can allow the franchise to rebuild in earnest. With experienced names like Warkentien, Kevin Pritchard, and Chris Mullin out there (notice I left out Isiah Thomas), Taylor is cheating his fans if he keeps Kahn on the job too much longer.
Southwest Division (in predicted order of finish)
Dallas Mavericks- Dallas ended last season with a bitterly disappointing first round playoff loss to the San Antonio Spurs. In the end, Dallas just didn’t play defense well enough to conquer an experienced unit like the Spurs. The Mavericks are a veteran group with a good coach in Rick Carlisle. Their GM Donnie Nelson chose not to overhaul the roster, but to add to it in exactly the spots the Mavericks needed. Nelson added often injured, but very effective center Tyson Chandler. He also re-signed center Brendan Haywood, who they acquired at last year’s trade deadline from Washington. He also traded for a late first round pick and used it on South Florida guard Dominique Jones, who should make their rotation. Chandler and Haywood are both excellent complements to Dirk Nowitzki in the front court. Jones adds to a very deep stable of guards. All of the components are there for Dallas to make a run at the Lakers for conference supremacy. The most important element for the Mavericks is how well Carlisle coaches them up. First off, he needs to realize that their biggest weakness is perimeter defense. Too often in the playoffs, he went with a small lineup, which hurt them badly on defense. His two best perimeter defenders are Caron Butler and Shawn Marion and he rarely, if ever, plays them together. I read a quote last week from Jason Kidd where he said he would welcome having his minutes reduced. If he’s telling the truth, which is always a question with Kidd, this is a good thing, because Kidd has become a defensive liability. Carlisle spent way too much time with Kidd and Jason Terry on the court together, which is like laying out the red carpet to the hoop for opposing guards. Neither of them are one of the Mavericks’ five best defenders. Dallas has the potential to be tremendously successful this coming season. But if Carlisle does not put a premium on defense in managing his rotation, we’re looking at another first round exit. I’m betting Ranger Rick gets it and the Mavs make it all the way to the West finals and give the Lakers all they can handle.
Houston Rockets- The Rockets are one of the harder teams to preview in the league. I know it’s not brain surgery, but their fortunes this season are completely tied to the health of center Yao Ming. Yao provides a uniquely dominant physical presence on both ends of the floor. The Rockets are a skilled, deep team. But Yao makes them special. The West is a very deep, competitive conference. The Rockets without Yao are a bubble playoff team that most likely fall to the wrong side. However, with Yao, they’re a threat to go to the finals. Their GM, Daryl Morey, had a relatively quiet off season. He bailed out of last year’s off season mistake which was the free agent swap of Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza. Despite the fact that Artest is truly out of his mind, he was an enormous defensive presence for the Lakers and frankly they would not have won the title without him. Ariza ended up being a high volume, low percentage shooter who dominated the ball and seemed to forget everything that made him an effective role player. Morey moved him to New Orleans in the off season and brought back Courtney Lee from the Nets in a 4 way deal. Lee was miscast in New Jersey as a starting wing. He will be used much more effectively in Houston as a backup to wings Kevin Martin and Shane Battier. Morey also reinforced his front court by signing forward Luis Scola to a new, rich contract. He also added center Brad Miller, which should be an enormous help to Yao. The Rockets plan on only playing Yao 24 minutes a game this season to lower his incidence of injury. Miller is the perfect guy to split that time with Yao. He handles the ball well out at the high post like Yao, and plays with a mean streak that the Rockets lost when they decided to let Artest leave. I’m a buyer on the Rockets, largely because Morey has put a plan in place for Yao to be available at the times Houston needs him most. I’ve got the Rockets winning at least one round in the playoffs and will be a tough out for anyone, including the World Champion Lakers.
San Antonio Spurs- On the surface, San Antonio appeared to have upgraded their chances to compete to win the West. And although I credit GM R.C. Buford with a productive off season, the Spurs may have the same issues that plagued them the last few years. You see, the Spurs aren’t exactly as young as springtime. Their two best players, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, are 34 and 33 respectively. And their 28 year old point guard, Tony Parker, get hurt a lot more than the Spurs would like. Besides retaining Richard Jefferson ( for an absurd amount of money), their two big off season moves were the drafting on first round pick, wing player James Anderson and the signing of Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter. Anderson is an athletic young wing with an NBA body and some scoring ability. Splitter is an impressive 25 year old big man who can clearly take pressure off of the aging Duncan. The problem is that Splitter has a history of not staying healthy himself. And, sure enough, he’s already on the shelf in the preseason with a bad foot. For the Spurs to challenge the Lakers in the West, they are going to need to be blessed with good health for a good part of the season and especially the playoffs. To me, that’s a tall order. Head coach Greg Popovich will do everything he can to keep his older guys and injury prone players fresh. However, I think there are just too many variables for the Spurs from a health standpoint. As cynical as it sounds, I don’t see things falling the Spurs way. That championship window that was open for so long has officially closed. They’ll make the playoffs. But that’s right where it will end.
Memphis Grizzlies- Since the Grizzlies disastrous February 1, 2008 trade of Pau Gasol, they have appeared to be a hopeless franchise. Their GM, Chris Wallace, hasn’t exactly built a reputation as a skilled organizational architect. And as much fun as it would be to fill my Memphis preview with Chris Wallace jokes, I can’t. The Grizzlies have actually become a good team. They made excellent progress last season in jumping to 40 wins. They were competing for a playoff spot until they ran out of steam late. Wallace made a bold move in trading for power forward Zach Randolph. Randolph is always a risk to run afoul with the law and has never been too fond of passing or defending. But Randolph is an animal in the post and is an effective rebounder. And Wallace was able to bring him while he’s looking for a new contract. The fruits of Wallace’s much maligned Gasol trade, Pau’s younger brother Marc Gasol, has developed into a quality center. The Grizzlies re-signed their best player Rudy Gay to a 5 year max deal. It’s a lot of money for Gay, but it gave them some much needed continuity. When they combine that with O.J. Mayo and their two new athletic wings, free agent signing Tony Allen and first round draft pick Xavier Henry, the Grizzlies have some depth and can run the floor with anybody. Take this one to the bank as my surprise West playoff team. Ladies and gentlemen, here are your 2010-2011 Memphis Grizzlies.
New Orleans Hornets- There’s a scene in the movie Good Fellas where Joe Pesci’s character, Tommy DeVito is on his way to get “made”, which is a rite of passage for a young gangster who establishes himself. On the way to his ceremony, Tommy is as happy as can be as if all is right with the world. Unfortunately for Tommy, when he arrives to his ceremony, he ends up with a bullet in the skull. He had no idea that pending doom was on the other side of the door. When I look at this year’s version of the Hornets, Tommy’s fate comes to mind. The Hornets are a team who is absolutely desperate to keep their star point guard Chris Paul. Paul requested to be traded this past off season and the Hornets managed to get themselves a “stay of execution” so to speak. They convinced Paul that they could assemble a good enough core around him to be competitive in the West. Paul does not have a ton of leverage right now because he still has two years on his contract, so he rescinded the request and is playing the role of good soldier. The Hornets attempted to placate Paul by trading Paul’s backup and heir apparent, Darren Collison, to Indiana in a 4 way deal that brought Trevor Ariza to New Orleans. Ariza still has 4 more years left on his deal. And if he plays like he did in Houston last season, the Hornets have created more problems than they’ve solved. Furthermore, when Paul lifts the stay of execution which will most likely be next off season, the Hornets gave up their insurance policy. If they keep Collison and bring back a good package for Paul, they never have to bottom out and they’re younger and cheaper. Instead, when Paul decides he wants to join Carmelo Anthony in New York, or Dwight Howard in Orlando, the Hornets will be stripped bare which could jeopardize basketball in New Orleans altogether. These issues will hang over the Hornets season like a tornado cloud no matter how much new GM Dell Demps and new head coach Monty Williams wish them away. It will be lottery city for the Hornets this year and they better find a comfortable seat because they are going to be there awhile.
Pacific Division (in order of predicted finish)
Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers face an amazing challenge this season. In spite of the fact that the Lakers significantly improved in the off season, this title defense will be much tougher than the last two titles. The bar is raised around the league. But more than that, the Lakers are going to have to conquer fatigue, father time, and some nagging, potentially debilitating injuries that could undermine their ability to win their third title in a row. Laker head coach Phil Jackson has 10 championships to his name. Out of Philosophical Phil’s 10 titles , none may have been more difficult to achieve than last season’s. And as hard a last year’s title was, this year is going to be harder. Jackson’s toughest challenge will be economizing the minutes of his key players to have them healthy enough to be effective in the playoffs. Very frankly, Jackson played with fire last year and it paid off. Kobe Bryant played far too many minutes in the regular season considering his ongoing health issues. The Lakers signed free agent Matt Barnes in the off season to relieve some of Bryant’s burden. Big Chief Triangle’s biggest problem will be getting Kobe to understand that his minutes need to be regulated. Kobe will fight reduced minutes every step of the way, but Barnes will give them productive playing time while Bryant rests. Jackson also has to deal with Andrew Bynum’s not so recovered knee. Bynum will not be ready to start the season and L.A. will be lucky if he’s back by December. And when he does come back, Jackson would be quite wise to limit his minutes until he gets himself back into shape. Because of Bynum’s injury history and his size, despite his youth, Jackson should wait until he’s in peak condition before using him full time. Bynum’s chances of getting hurt again rise exponentially if he’s not in the best shape possible. The other problem that Phil needs to be acutely aware of is the emerging fatigue of Mr. Khloe Kardashian himself, my main man, Lamar Odom. Odom is enormously important to how the Lakers play because of the diversity of his game. He played his heart out in this summer’s World Championships in being the U.S. team’s key big man in their gold medal winning effort. The fact that Odom looked exhausted on the court, yet was supremely effective, was incredibly impressive. So after a month off, he embarks on what should be a minimum of 100 games over the next 8 ½ months. Jackson needs to be very careful here, so he also has Odom when he needs him. This will require Jackson to show some faith in veteran big man Theo Ratliff and rookie big man Derrick Caracter. If Ratliff is all washed up, like I suspect, than Jackson is going to have to have a lot of faith in a rookie, which rarely is standard operating procedure for Jackson. Whatever happens, Philosophical Phil will do it his way and no one else’s. And considering the man has two fists full of championship rings, he’s not a guy I want to pick against. Because of that, and the lack of another elite team in the Western Conference, I’ve got the Lakers winning the West and going to the finals.
Phoenix Suns- The Suns made a fantastic run to the West finals last season. Unfortunately for them, their most important on court asset is playing on Broadway and their most important off the court asset will be sitting next to Marv Albert at a TNT broadcast table. Many people in NBA circles consider Steve Nash as Phoenix’s best on court asset. Over the last few seasons, as Nash as gotten older, and Stoudemire has hit his prime, Amare has been a more important player for the Suns than Nash. Nash is a brilliant offensive player. However, his complete disinterest in defense borders on offensive. Next time you’re watching Nash on defense (play defense would be on overly generous term), observe what he does when his man beats him. Where a player like Rajon Rondo for example will head toward the basket after he gets beaten to help the man who helps him or be in position to grab a rebound, Nash hangs out close to the sideline to be in position for an inbound pass after a made basket. Nash will wait by the sidelines looking for an inbound pass often times when the ball hasn’t even been shot yet. Now please don’t get me wrong. I am not extolling the virtues of Stoudemire’s defense. Average would probably be a bit of a reach in describing Stoudemire’s defensive prowess. But at this stage of both of their careers, we’re going to see that Nash needs Stoudemire a lot more than Stoudemire needs Nash. I also feel the need to reiterate a point made last week by ESPN.com columnist Bill Simmons. In summarizing Phoenix’s off season, he asked the question of why would the Suns spend $80 million combined on Channing Frye, Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick when they could have brought Amare back for $100 million. It’s a great question, but has unfortunately become standard operating procedure for owner Robert Sarver’s Suns. Steve Kerr was the Suns GM last year. He did a masterful job of building a deep versatile roster that gave head coach Alvin Gentry several options depending upon how they needed to match up. After Gentry did an amazing job leading the suns to the West final, Kerr had the unmitigated gall to suggest to Sarver that Kerr and the front office staff deserved raises. What Sarver had in mind were reductions in pay for the front office. Kerr realized that he was spitting into the wind and walked. So where does that leave Gentry and the Suns? Well considering that the loss of Stoudemire will cause Gentry to have to play small all the time to get his best players on the floor, it leaves the Suns up a creek without a paddle in the West. It will be extremely difficult to match up favorably with teams like the Lakers, Dallas, Portland, San Antonio, and Houston when your big forward is Handsome Hedo Turkoglu. Because of that, I think that the Suns will struggle mightily to make the playoffs.
Sacramento Kings- There’s an old saying about success being defined when preparation meets opportunity. Then, sometimes, there’s just flat out dumb luck. In the 2009 draft, Oklahoma City decided to select James Harden with the third pick and leave Tyreke Evans for Sacramento to select at #4. On his way to winning rookie of the year, Evans was only the 4th rookie ever to average 20 points a game, 5 rebounds a game, and 5 assists a game. The other three were Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and Lebron James. Evans is on his way to being a big time all around player in the league for a long time. In this 2010 draft, the 76ers, the Nets, and the Timberwolves all decided to pass on the best big man in the draft, DeMarcus Cousins. The fact that Sacramento GM, Geoff Petrie selected Cousins was more about the mistakes of others than his own stroke of genius. Nonetheless, the Kings have two building blocks who have the potential to be two of the best ten players in the league. I am particularly fond of Cousins. He has great hands, great feet, plays physical defense, and backs down from no one. The big knock on him is that he is an angry, immature kid. But he’ll grow up, and that anger gives him an on-court edge that makes him very tough to play against. Furthermore, the Kings are very deep up front with Cousins, Jason Thompson, Carl Landry (another favorite of mine), and 19 year old promising rookie Hassan Whiteside. Besides Evans, they have two promising young wings in Omri Casspi and Donte Greene. The only important building block this team still needs is a point guard. Beno Udrih had a good year last season, but he’s not the long term answer as the starter. The Kings are moving in the right direction. You can sort of look at them as Oklahoma City Light. They probably won’t make the jump into the playoffs this year. But, next year…..look out.
Los Angeles Clippers- I’ve never been one to bag on the Clippers just because they’re the Clippers. The combination of poor management and bad luck has made them a franchise that’s synonymous with futility. They thought that their troubles were in the rear view mirror last season when they won the lottery and the privilege to draft Blake Griffin. Then Griffin blew out his knee and didn’t play a game. And now Griffin is back. He has looked great in the preseason and appears ready to lead this team. But what exactly is he going to be leading? Between Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, and Eric Gordon, Griffin has enough around him for L.A. to be respectable. Unfortunately, too many things have to go right for the Clips to creep into the playoffs. Davis has not appeared to be a happy player the last few years. He was lured to the Clips under false pretenses (thanks Elton Brand). And his body language tells the story. But this should be a fresh start. Besides for Griffin, the Clippers brought in a new head coach in former Bulls head coach Vinny Del Negro. Del Negro certainly had some growing pains in Chicago, but he’s a good coach with potential to get better. The big problem with the Clippers is that they didn’t do very much to help themselves in the off season. They signed two pedestrian free agents in Randy Foye and Ryan Gomes. And they drafted a bust in the making in Al-Farouq Aminu and a good young guard caught behind Davis in Eric Bledsoe. Between Griffin, Gordon and Bledsoe, there are the beginnings of some sort of future. In the meantime, the Clippers will be occupying familiar territory….the draft lottery.
Golden State Warriors- Since there is so much bad news associated with the Warriors, I’m going to focus on the good news first. They have new ownership, a new coach, and a few guys that can score. That’s where the good news ends. They replaced Don Nelson at head coach with assistant Keith Smart. Smart is promising to employ a more defensive oriented system. Which is a great idea for the exception of one little problem. Their personnel is geared towards playing an up tempo game without much concern for defense. They paid David Lee an absurd amount of money to come as a free agent. And they gave up a gifted young player in Anthony Randolph in the sign and trade. Lee can score a little and gets rebounds, but he’s as bad a defender as you’ll see and the next guy he boxes out will be his first. Monta Ellis is a chucker who doesn’t pass or defend. Stephen Curry is a statistic machine, but he turns the ball over a ton and doesn’t defend very well either. As a matter of fact, Andris Biedrins is the only guy on the roster who can guard anyone. Smart has the right idea in what he wants to do, but the wrong group to do it with. Ultimately, they’re going to have to decide if they want to keep Ellis or Curry because the most obvious thing about last year’s Warrior team was that these two could not play together. Rarely would they both touch the ball on the same possession. The one they will most likely keep is Curry, even though he can return much more in a trade than Ellis can. Either way, they will be no where close to a playoff team this season.
Playoff Seeds
1) L.A. Lakers
2) Dallas
3) Oklahoma City
4) Houston
5) Portland
6) San Antonio
7) Utah
8) Memphis
First Round
L.A. over Memphis
Dallas over Utah
San Antonio over Oklahoma City
Houston over Portland
Second Round
L.A. over Houston
Dallas over San Antonio
Conference Finals
L.A. over Dallas
NBA Finals
Boston over L.A. (in 7)
I can’t escape what I saw in game 7 of last year’s NBA finals. For as good as the Lakers are, they ran out of steam at the end of that series. They were able to win the title because of two important factors. The first being the home court advantage. The Lakers could not have won game 7 with as badly as they shot if they were on the road. The second factor was the absence of Boston center Kendrick Perkins. The Lakers shot 26% from the field in the first half of that game but were only down six at the half largely because of their 15 offensive rebounds. There is no possible way that L.A. gets 15 offensive rebounds in a half with Perkins on the floor. The Celtics have restocked their rotation of bigs with the addition of the O’Neals…and they’ll get Perkins back sometime in the middle of the season. For the Lakers to win last year, a lot of things had to fall their way. These two teams are so evenly matched, I see things falling the Celtics way this year by the slimmest of margins.
Giddyap. Y’all be cool.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Eastern Conference Preview…..Oh Baby!!!!
As a lifelong New York Rangers fan, it was an inevitable development that I became an enormous fan of longtime Ranger goaltender and then announcer John Davidson, affectionately known to Ranger fans as JD. JD was a goalie who was not blessed with a lot of talent. His effectiveness was belied by his heart, his fearlessness, and his passion for the game. That passion for hockey would come shooting out of his voice while he was announcing a game. He developed an expression during the most exciting parts of a game. JD would uncontrollably exclaim, Oh Baby, when the action got so intense, he lost the words to describe it. Oh Baby wasn’t a contrived catch phrase. It was the result of a passionate hockey man who couldn’t hold back.
Being the basketball fanatic that I am, when I think about this upcoming season, the only words I can use to describe it are, “Oh Baby!!!” After the most interesting and publicized off season in league history, the time has come to lace them up and get it on. So, without further adieu, I give you my Eastern Conference Preview.
Atlantic Division (in order of predicted finish)
Boston Celtics- This season’s incarnation of the storied Celtics is a little different than the previous 3 years and I actually think that’s a good thing. The biggest problem this group of Celtics can encounter are the effects of father time. As their core ages, the importance of managing the minutes of their “Big 3” becomes more essential. This version of the Celtics will have that covered well. This is the deepest Celtic team of the last 4 years, even without Kendrick Perkins for the first half of the season. The free agent signings of Shaquille and Jermaine O’Neal will give the Celtics plenty of depth up front while they wait for Perkins to return. Also, the additions of Delonte West and Von Wafer will strengthen the bench as well and allow Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to get the necessary rest they need to be healthy for the playoffs. Keep an eye on Wafer, who played for the Rockets two years ago and was out of the league last year. Wafer will pass a kidney stone before he’ll ever pass the ball, but he can fill it up in bunches in short spurts and defends like an animal. The Celtics have a very good chance to return to where they got last year….game 7 of the NBA finals.
New York Knicks- After 10 years of selling their fans a bill of goods about their ability to be competitive, it looks the Knicks are finally going to be making the right kind of progress. They got younger, more athletic, and will be significantly more fun to watch. Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks a caliber of player that they haven’t had since the days of Patrick Ewing. Raymond Felton gives the Knicks a tough, fast point guard who can push the ball and actually run coach Mike D’Antoni’s offense. Felton just came out of a year of point guard prison with Warden Larry Brown. Playing in D’Antoni’s wide open style will feel like a whole new world has opened up for Felton. And watch Knicks rookie center Timofey Mozgov from Russia. He’s big, he can jump high, has good hands, plays physical, and understands how to play help defense. The Knicks may be able to push over the .500 mark as they move in the right direction. Now the future would really be bright if the Knicks actually had any draft picks. Also, a big wild card for the Knicks will be if they are able to acquire Carmelo Anthony this season. I think there’s a high probability that Anthony ends up in New York. If he does, the Knicks could be as high as a #5 seed in the East. Better times are on the horizon in the Big Apple. Despite not getting Lebron James in free agency, Donnie Walsh had a very productive off season.
Toronto Raptors- The good news for the Raptors is that in my opinion, they will not completely collapse after losing Chris Bosh to his higher calling of saving the free world with the Miami Heat. The Raptors are actually in the process of building an interesting young core. Last year’s first round pick Demar Derozan appears to be ready to pick up the slack as the franchise’s best player. Ed Davis may end up being a tremendous value in this past year’s first round. And the addition of wing player Linas Kleiza should really help. Kleiza played in Greece last season after being an important bench player two years ago for the Denver team that made to the West finals. Kleiza looked great this summer playing for Lithuania in this past summer’s World Championships. He should help Toronto a lot. Unfortunately for Toronto, the best they can hope for is an outside shot at the #8 seed in the East and frankly, they would be better off back in the lottery.
Philadelphia 76ers- Sometime soon, new Sixers head coach Doug Collins is going to realize what he left the cozy confines of the broadcast booth to coach, and when he does, he is going to get a case of indigestion worse than Rex Ryan at a breakfast buffet. First off, they’re not very deep up front. Marreese Speights is an athletic big, but there’s not much behind him. Elton Brand has been an enormous disappointment on every front. His contract is an anchor on the organization. He has been unable to stay healthy and when he’s played, he’s been barely noticeable. And they still owe him huge money for 3 more years. As good as Andre Iguodala looked in the World Championships this summer, he’s not an elite player and he’s paid like one. The Sixers drafted Evan Turner, who does many of the same things as Iguodala, when they could have selected DeMarcus Cousins and had a center for the next 10 years. They do have a young, promising point guard in Jrue Holiday, but he will experience a few years of growing pains before his potential is realized. The Sixers are deluding themselves if they think they’re going to be competitive with this group. They would be better off rebuilding. And the most bizarre part about it is that new team President Rod Thorn thinks he’s got a better chance to turn this group around than his former 12 win mess in New Jersey. What’s even crazier is that Thorn is probably right. Which leads us to…..
New Jersey Nets- The Nets are operating under the premise that it can’t get any worse than last season. That would be difficult. Unfortunately, after their disaster of an off season, it’s not getting much better anytime soon. In an attempt to refrain from kicking the Nets while they’re down, I’m going to gloss over the fact that Carmelo Anthony refused to allow himself to be traded to Jersey by declining their offer of a contract extension. However, the bottom line for the Nets is that they had a miserable off season. They spent an absurd amount of money on Travis Outlaw. Anthony Morrow isn’t solving any problems and Johan Petro creates them. Jordan Farmar is a nice addition, but he’s stuck behind Devin Harris. And speaking of Harris, the Nets are about to bear the brunt of the dysfunctional relationship between Harris and their new head coach Avery Johnson. Johnson was Harris’ coach in Dallas and was thrilled to get rid of him then. When the cameras are on, Johnson tells the world Harris is like a son to him. Yet, when Harris’ name is constantly coming up in trade rumors, rest assured that Johnson is the engine driving that bus. Johnson wants Harris gone and will tell anyone who will listen, when he thinks he’s speaking off the record. But all of this doesn’t represent what I believe is the Nets worst problem. Jersey’s dirty little secret is that their supposed franchise center Brook Lopez is not that good. This Nets regime just like the last regime, have deemed Lopez untouchable. Don’t get me wrong. Lopez is a good player and a legitimate threat in the low post. But Lopez is heavy footed on defense, doesn’t pass out of double teams well and has proven to be an average rebounder at best. Furthermore, most league executives love him. The Nets biggest mistake is not understanding that Lopez will have more value to them off their team. Lopez can bring back a haul on the open market. Lopez is so well regarded around the league, he can be mentioned in a trade conversation for any player in the league not named Wade, Lebron, Kobe, or Durant. The bottom line is that the Nets won’t have this thing turned around until they make a bold move, like trading Lopez. And they better get working before their dirty little secret gets out.
Central Division (in predicted order of finish)
Chicago Bulls- The Bulls had a tremendous off season. They were able to turn one of their max cap slots into all star forward Carlos Boozer. They added key role players in Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer. And most importantly, they signed their athletic center Joakim Noah to a 5 year contract extension. This is undoubtedly a step in the right direction, despite losing Boozer to a broken hand until the beginning of December. As far as this season is concerned, the Bulls have not come quite far enough to be among the Eastern Conference elite. I wholeheartedly believe they will get there. But they are still a year or two away. If the Bulls make the conference finals, this season will have been an absolute success. For what it’s worth, in spite of their great off season, I feel the need to deride their GM Gar Forman and their president John Paxson for throwing away seasoned and versatile guard Kirk Hinrich and a mid first round pick, just for the privilege of chasing someone to play with Lebron James, who they never got. Paxson and Forman aced Professor Donnie Walsh’s class on how to throw away contributors and first round draft pick to chase an impossible dream.
Milwaukee Bucks- The Bucks were last season’s cute little surprise. This year, the stakes get higher and the group the Bucks have assembled should be up to the task. All Star center Andrew Bogut will be back, although not 100% healthy. The Bucks added some key parts in the off season. Wing player Corey Maggette will be a great fit if he manages to stay on the court. Drew Gooden and rookie Larry Sanders (hey now) will give the Bucks a few big forwards to help Bogut, which they didn’t have last year. They will have John Salmons for an entire season and Brandon Jennings should be a year better. Unfortunately, in the East, the best they can do is be a pain in someone’s rump in the second round. For the Bucks, that will represent progress. Head coach Scott Skiles has the group buying in and moving in the right direction. Fear the Deer.
Indiana Pacers- As each new season approaches, I always find myself falling into the same trap and predicting some progress for the Pacers. Each new season, the Pacers disappoint and prove me wrong by stinking up the joint. So, where does that leave me this year? I never learn. I think the Pacers are a playoff team in the East this season. Team president Larry Bird has done a tremendous job building a balanced, fundamentally sound roster. The one spot where Indiana suffered last season was point guard. Last year’s starter, T.J. Ford, was the worst starting point guard in the NBA this side of Chris Duhon. Bird stood pat at last year’s trade deadline because he didn’t get what he felt to be a quality offer for Troy Murphy’s expiring contract. So he held onto Murphy until the off season and got rewarded for his patience. He traded Murphy in an elaborate 4 way trade that brought second year point guard Darren Collison to Indiana. Collison is an excellent point guard prospect. He defends very well and can both pass and score. He has a turnover problem he needs to work on, but he is a young productive player and a great fit in Indiana. So much of Indiana’s success will depend upon the unselfishness of their best player, Danny Granger. Granger came into the league has a hard working player who could defend as well as score. He’s evolved into a high volume low percentage shooter who treats defense as a convenience. If Granger rediscovers his unselfishness, it will go a long way in finally seeing some earnest progress in Indiana.
Detroit Pistons- In Rocky 3, Rocky Balboa looks at Adrian on the beach in the penultimate scene and asks, “How did everything that was so good, get so bad?” Pistons fans have every right to ask the same question. Detroit GM Joe Dumars has loused up this organization up and down the line. And the craziest part about it is that he had actually set things up for the Pistons to rebound quickly as their championship core from 2004 progressed into the back nine of their respective careers. Dumars made a very unpopular but financially clever deal early in the 2008-2009 season by sending popular and accomplished point guard Chauncey Billups to Denver for the eccentric Allen Iverson and his expiring contract. With Rasheed Wallace’s contract also expiring after that season, Dumars had set the Pistons up to be big players in the big free agency frenzy of 2010. Here is where Joe D drove the train off the tracks. Instead of holding the cap room until there were worthy players available, Dumars emptied his barrel by signing undersized guard/chucker Ben Gordon and soft power forward Charlie Villanueva to matching $10 million per year contracts. Gordon got 5 years. Joe D was more frugal with Villanueva giving him 4 years. Gordon was unable to stay healthy all year and was ineffective when he played. Villanueva was quite adept at updating his Twitter account frequently, but fell short in terms of making an impact on the court. So where does that leave the Pistons for this coming season. Their head coach John Kuester, who I’m not very impressed with ( as detailed here http://hoopscritic.blogspot.com/2009_07_01_archive.html) has a very difficult balancing act ahead of him. Kuester needs to give enough playing time to holdovers Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton so Dumars can showcase them to other teams in hopes of moving one or both of them for a meaningful asset. At the same time Kuester needs to get their promising young wing players Austin Daye and DaJuan Summers some significant minutes so they can develop and Dumars can see if these kids can play. So what does Joe D do? He decides to sign the thoroughly washed up Tracy McGrady to a one year deal. The same Tracy McGrady that looked like he needed a walker to get onto the court last season for the Knicks. The bad news for Pistons fans is that despite drafting a good player in Georgetown big man Greg Monroe, there are not enough good players on this team…and the coach is bad too. The good news is that it appears as though Mike Ilitch, the owner of the Detroit Tigers and Detroit Red Wings, is planning on buying the Pistons from the Davidson family. This could very well translate into changes at general manager and coach which would be a good thing. Rarely is the guy who made the mess the right guy to clean the mess and Dumars is no exception. It’s another non playoff season of anti-competitive basketball in Detroit.
Cleveland Cavaliers- It would be bad form to pile on the Cavaliers after the devastation that this organization experienced in the off season. We can debate all year about how much the Cavs are culpable for Lebron’s exit, but it doesn’t change the fact that he took his talents to South Beach. In the wake of Lebron’s departure, the Cavs really only have one choice about what direction they need to go. They need to break it down and start from scratch. The main focus before the trade deadline is to find takers for the contracts of Antawn Jamison, Mo Williams, an Anderson Varejao. There should be a healthy market for Varejao. Jamison and Williams will be much tougher to get rid of. This team, should be built around J.J. Hickson. They refused to move him to make Lebron’s Cavs better, so I would say they’re committed to him. They should also find out if young players Danny Green and Christian Eyenga can play. In most unfortunate fashion, the Cavaliers are going back to the days of being the Cleveland Cadavers for a few years. And by the way, Cavs owner Dan Gilbert needs to be very patient with new head coach Byron Scott. Scott walked into miserable situations in his first two jobs in New Jersey and New Orleans. He turned those around quickly. Scott is not the best tactical coach and can wear of players’ nerves after a few years, but he demands a lot from his players and guys get better on his watch.
Southeast Division (in predicted order of finish)
Miami Heat- Are they going to be great? Duh!!! This will be an outstanding regular season team that will win a minimum of 60 games. They are going to be fun to watch and will attract paparazzi like attention where ever they go. But will they win the title this year? I’m not so sure. I don’t think they did such a great job assembling pieces around their three South Beach Super Heroes ( after all,….they joined forces to be together…). Their best 5 players is a group without a true center and without a true point guard. They won’t beat Boston that way and will have their hands full against the Magic. Miami’s best five players are Superman, Batman, Aquaman, Mike Miller, and Udonis Haslem. That lineup forces Bosh or Haslem to play center which makes them too small. And that lineup forces Wade to defend a point guard, which is not the most efficient use of Wade. Speaking of Wade, his, shall we say, inconsistency on defense the last two seasons has been something that Heat management has looked the other way from primarily because he was becoming a free agent. Now that he’s re-signed and he got to bring his friends with him, it will be interesting to see if he decides to renew his commitment to the defensive end of the floor. The Heat will be great and they’ve given the league a villain and a traveling event all rolled into one. But, as currently constituted, they’re not going to be able to win a playoff series against Boston or the Lakers.
Orlando Magic- The Magic have a very interesting challenge ahead of them for this coming season. How do find a way to improve as a unit when management hasn’t made any appreciable upgrades to the personnel? They added Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson and only subtracted Matt Barnes. So the answer to their question is to focus on the improvement of individual players. The two guys that can really upgrade their games to make the Magic better are Dwight Howard and J.J. Redick. Howard has done off season work with Hakeem Olajuwon. Howard does not need work on his defense and rebounding. He needs help offensively in the post. My biggest criticism of Howard’s post game is that he invited double teams as opposed to forcing them. When he catches a pass in the post, he has a habit of holding or dribbling the ball in place while waiting to begin a move. This gives the defense time to make a choice on whether to double him or not. If he makes his move quickly, he forces the defense to make a faster decision, which gives Howard the advantage. This will also make the decision of when to pass out of a double team easier to make, which is Howard’s other weakness. Redick, on the other hand gave us a glimpse of the type of impact wing player he could be in last year’s playoffs. He has become a tenacious defender and is still a dead eye shooter. He has also developed his athleticism and conditioning to a point where he is a perfect fit for how Orlando wants to play. The thing about the Magic is this. They were an excellent regular season team last year and will be an excellent regular season team this year. The Magic struggled last year in the playoffs because they didn’t play fast enough for the lineup that coach Stan Van Gundy employs. By playing Rashard Lewis at big forward most of the time, Orlando is a little small to match up with the Celtics. This would be okay, if they were completely committed to pushing the tempo all the time. But point guard Jameer Nelson was more interested in slowing down the tempo so he could run the pick and roll. And it didn’t seem like Stan Van Gundy was emphasizing a speedy tempo as much as he should have. If the Magic end up matched up with one of the big, elite teams, and they choose to play slow, Van Gundy has to play long stretches with Howard and his secret weapon, 7 footer Marcin Gortat, on the floor together. If they get caught in the half court with a small lineup, they are way too susceptible to the perimeter whims of Nelson and Vince Carter. But Stan has always been set in his ways, so there’s no reason to think he’ll change. I see the Magic with a 55 win season and a 2nd round playoff exit.
Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks did something this off season that they rarely do. They spent money and lots of it. They re-signed Joe Johnson to a 6 year max contract. The problem is that Johnson was probably the wrong guy to pay that kind of money. As the years have passed, Johnson has become less of a well rounded player and more of a high volume, low percentage shooter who doesn’t defend all that well. Unfortunately for the Hawks, they, like Orlando, were unable to make any kind of meaningful roster upgrades. They are working feverishly to sign young big man Al Horford to a long term contract. The franchise is looking to build a perennial winner around Johnson, Horford, and Josh Smith, who they extended last year. They are also steadfastly refusing to extend all-world chucker Jamal Crawford, which shows that they are in tune with what they need. Second year guard Jeff Teague should fill Crawford’s role cheaper and much more efficiently. The bad news in all of this for the Hawks is that they haven’t gotten much better in a conference where the top teams improved significantly. So, although there is a future here, this roster will still only translate into a first round playoff loss.
Washington Wizards-The Wizards are much closer to having last year’s disaster turned around than they deserve. GM Ernie Grunfeld overplayed his hand last year by trading the #5 pick in the draft for two bench players in Randy Foye and Mike Miller who were much closer to being part of the problem than being part of the solution. Ernie’s indigestion really hit high gear when the pick he traded turned out to be Ricky Rubio. And just when Ernie thought it couldn’t get any worse, Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenden tried to turn the Wizards locker room into the final scene of Scarface. Ernie’s decision to break it down at the trade deadline and unload Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, and Brendan Haywood was clearly the right one. And the hoop gods rewarded him with the winning ping pong ball in the draft lottery and the prestigious honor to draft can’t miss point guard John Wall. Wall is a superb athlete that will be one of the best in the league at the position once he learns the nuances. But Ernie didn’t stop there. He rented some cap space to the Chicago Bulls for Kirk Hinrich and a first round pick that ended up being big man Kevin Seraphin. Hinrich will be a fantastic mentor to Wall who should offset any negative influence that emanates from the toxic Arenas. Ernie also may have pulled off a coup in renting more cap space to the Nets for disappointing forward Yi Jianlian. Yi has had an excellent off season and looked like a different player for China in the World Championships. With his contract expiring at the end of the season, the Wizards get a free look. The Wiz may not be good enough to make the playoffs this season, but their time as a lottery team will be short. They’ve got plenty of better days ahead and soon.
Charlotte Bobcats- With the way the Bobcats are set up for this season, I have to figure that head coach Larry Brown makes it no further than the All-Star break without gargling Drano. They lost their point guard Raymond Felton to free agency and Larry trusts last year’s backup D.J. Augustin about as much as Elin Nordegren trusts Tiger Woods. His other choices are Shawn Livingston, who already is having pain in his surgically repaired knee and Javaris “Quick Draw” Crittenden. On top of this, the Bobcats have chosen to get in bed with some bad attitudes who they desperately need to be key players. In the right situation, Stephen Jackson and Tyrus Thomas are major contributors. Jackson can carry the load and Thomas is a young athletic big with a ton of upside. But if the wheels start falling off, these two will turn on Larry faster than a race car on a tight turn. The Bobcats made their maiden playoff appearance last season. But their inability to upgrade the roster in a meaningful way is going to put them right back in the lottery.
Playoff Seeds
1) Miami
2) Boston
3) Chicago
4) Orlando
5) Milwaukee
6) Atlanta
7) New York
8) Indiana
First Round
Miami over Indiana
Boston over New York
Chicago over Atlanta
Orlando over Milwaukee
Second Round
Miami over Orlando
Boston over Chicago
East Finals
Boston over Miami
As much as the Heat have done to build a championship team, this coming season is going to function more as a learning experience. Management will learn exactly what needs to be put in place around the James, Wade, and Bosh. And James, Wade, and Bosh will learn what it takes to play the type of physical, fundamental basketball it takes to win a title. Now before you say it, I know Wade has won one already. But he was a different player then. He was more fearless and a little more athletic than he is now. But the most important thing is that he had Shaq at the tail end of his prime. The Celtics now have an over the hill version of Shaq. However, Shaq at this stage of his career is exactly what the Celtics need to keep their status as Eastern kings. This incarnation of the Heat will win a title or two….but not so fast.
I’ll be back next week with my West preview. Giddyap. Y’all be cool.
As a lifelong New York Rangers fan, it was an inevitable development that I became an enormous fan of longtime Ranger goaltender and then announcer John Davidson, affectionately known to Ranger fans as JD. JD was a goalie who was not blessed with a lot of talent. His effectiveness was belied by his heart, his fearlessness, and his passion for the game. That passion for hockey would come shooting out of his voice while he was announcing a game. He developed an expression during the most exciting parts of a game. JD would uncontrollably exclaim, Oh Baby, when the action got so intense, he lost the words to describe it. Oh Baby wasn’t a contrived catch phrase. It was the result of a passionate hockey man who couldn’t hold back.
Being the basketball fanatic that I am, when I think about this upcoming season, the only words I can use to describe it are, “Oh Baby!!!” After the most interesting and publicized off season in league history, the time has come to lace them up and get it on. So, without further adieu, I give you my Eastern Conference Preview.
Atlantic Division (in order of predicted finish)
Boston Celtics- This season’s incarnation of the storied Celtics is a little different than the previous 3 years and I actually think that’s a good thing. The biggest problem this group of Celtics can encounter are the effects of father time. As their core ages, the importance of managing the minutes of their “Big 3” becomes more essential. This version of the Celtics will have that covered well. This is the deepest Celtic team of the last 4 years, even without Kendrick Perkins for the first half of the season. The free agent signings of Shaquille and Jermaine O’Neal will give the Celtics plenty of depth up front while they wait for Perkins to return. Also, the additions of Delonte West and Von Wafer will strengthen the bench as well and allow Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to get the necessary rest they need to be healthy for the playoffs. Keep an eye on Wafer, who played for the Rockets two years ago and was out of the league last year. Wafer will pass a kidney stone before he’ll ever pass the ball, but he can fill it up in bunches in short spurts and defends like an animal. The Celtics have a very good chance to return to where they got last year….game 7 of the NBA finals.
New York Knicks- After 10 years of selling their fans a bill of goods about their ability to be competitive, it looks the Knicks are finally going to be making the right kind of progress. They got younger, more athletic, and will be significantly more fun to watch. Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks a caliber of player that they haven’t had since the days of Patrick Ewing. Raymond Felton gives the Knicks a tough, fast point guard who can push the ball and actually run coach Mike D’Antoni’s offense. Felton just came out of a year of point guard prison with Warden Larry Brown. Playing in D’Antoni’s wide open style will feel like a whole new world has opened up for Felton. And watch Knicks rookie center Timofey Mozgov from Russia. He’s big, he can jump high, has good hands, plays physical, and understands how to play help defense. The Knicks may be able to push over the .500 mark as they move in the right direction. Now the future would really be bright if the Knicks actually had any draft picks. Also, a big wild card for the Knicks will be if they are able to acquire Carmelo Anthony this season. I think there’s a high probability that Anthony ends up in New York. If he does, the Knicks could be as high as a #5 seed in the East. Better times are on the horizon in the Big Apple. Despite not getting Lebron James in free agency, Donnie Walsh had a very productive off season.
Toronto Raptors- The good news for the Raptors is that in my opinion, they will not completely collapse after losing Chris Bosh to his higher calling of saving the free world with the Miami Heat. The Raptors are actually in the process of building an interesting young core. Last year’s first round pick Demar Derozan appears to be ready to pick up the slack as the franchise’s best player. Ed Davis may end up being a tremendous value in this past year’s first round. And the addition of wing player Linas Kleiza should really help. Kleiza played in Greece last season after being an important bench player two years ago for the Denver team that made to the West finals. Kleiza looked great this summer playing for Lithuania in this past summer’s World Championships. He should help Toronto a lot. Unfortunately for Toronto, the best they can hope for is an outside shot at the #8 seed in the East and frankly, they would be better off back in the lottery.
Philadelphia 76ers- Sometime soon, new Sixers head coach Doug Collins is going to realize what he left the cozy confines of the broadcast booth to coach, and when he does, he is going to get a case of indigestion worse than Rex Ryan at a breakfast buffet. First off, they’re not very deep up front. Marreese Speights is an athletic big, but there’s not much behind him. Elton Brand has been an enormous disappointment on every front. His contract is an anchor on the organization. He has been unable to stay healthy and when he’s played, he’s been barely noticeable. And they still owe him huge money for 3 more years. As good as Andre Iguodala looked in the World Championships this summer, he’s not an elite player and he’s paid like one. The Sixers drafted Evan Turner, who does many of the same things as Iguodala, when they could have selected DeMarcus Cousins and had a center for the next 10 years. They do have a young, promising point guard in Jrue Holiday, but he will experience a few years of growing pains before his potential is realized. The Sixers are deluding themselves if they think they’re going to be competitive with this group. They would be better off rebuilding. And the most bizarre part about it is that new team President Rod Thorn thinks he’s got a better chance to turn this group around than his former 12 win mess in New Jersey. What’s even crazier is that Thorn is probably right. Which leads us to…..
New Jersey Nets- The Nets are operating under the premise that it can’t get any worse than last season. That would be difficult. Unfortunately, after their disaster of an off season, it’s not getting much better anytime soon. In an attempt to refrain from kicking the Nets while they’re down, I’m going to gloss over the fact that Carmelo Anthony refused to allow himself to be traded to Jersey by declining their offer of a contract extension. However, the bottom line for the Nets is that they had a miserable off season. They spent an absurd amount of money on Travis Outlaw. Anthony Morrow isn’t solving any problems and Johan Petro creates them. Jordan Farmar is a nice addition, but he’s stuck behind Devin Harris. And speaking of Harris, the Nets are about to bear the brunt of the dysfunctional relationship between Harris and their new head coach Avery Johnson. Johnson was Harris’ coach in Dallas and was thrilled to get rid of him then. When the cameras are on, Johnson tells the world Harris is like a son to him. Yet, when Harris’ name is constantly coming up in trade rumors, rest assured that Johnson is the engine driving that bus. Johnson wants Harris gone and will tell anyone who will listen, when he thinks he’s speaking off the record. But all of this doesn’t represent what I believe is the Nets worst problem. Jersey’s dirty little secret is that their supposed franchise center Brook Lopez is not that good. This Nets regime just like the last regime, have deemed Lopez untouchable. Don’t get me wrong. Lopez is a good player and a legitimate threat in the low post. But Lopez is heavy footed on defense, doesn’t pass out of double teams well and has proven to be an average rebounder at best. Furthermore, most league executives love him. The Nets biggest mistake is not understanding that Lopez will have more value to them off their team. Lopez can bring back a haul on the open market. Lopez is so well regarded around the league, he can be mentioned in a trade conversation for any player in the league not named Wade, Lebron, Kobe, or Durant. The bottom line is that the Nets won’t have this thing turned around until they make a bold move, like trading Lopez. And they better get working before their dirty little secret gets out.
Central Division (in predicted order of finish)
Chicago Bulls- The Bulls had a tremendous off season. They were able to turn one of their max cap slots into all star forward Carlos Boozer. They added key role players in Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer. And most importantly, they signed their athletic center Joakim Noah to a 5 year contract extension. This is undoubtedly a step in the right direction, despite losing Boozer to a broken hand until the beginning of December. As far as this season is concerned, the Bulls have not come quite far enough to be among the Eastern Conference elite. I wholeheartedly believe they will get there. But they are still a year or two away. If the Bulls make the conference finals, this season will have been an absolute success. For what it’s worth, in spite of their great off season, I feel the need to deride their GM Gar Forman and their president John Paxson for throwing away seasoned and versatile guard Kirk Hinrich and a mid first round pick, just for the privilege of chasing someone to play with Lebron James, who they never got. Paxson and Forman aced Professor Donnie Walsh’s class on how to throw away contributors and first round draft pick to chase an impossible dream.
Milwaukee Bucks- The Bucks were last season’s cute little surprise. This year, the stakes get higher and the group the Bucks have assembled should be up to the task. All Star center Andrew Bogut will be back, although not 100% healthy. The Bucks added some key parts in the off season. Wing player Corey Maggette will be a great fit if he manages to stay on the court. Drew Gooden and rookie Larry Sanders (hey now) will give the Bucks a few big forwards to help Bogut, which they didn’t have last year. They will have John Salmons for an entire season and Brandon Jennings should be a year better. Unfortunately, in the East, the best they can do is be a pain in someone’s rump in the second round. For the Bucks, that will represent progress. Head coach Scott Skiles has the group buying in and moving in the right direction. Fear the Deer.
Indiana Pacers- As each new season approaches, I always find myself falling into the same trap and predicting some progress for the Pacers. Each new season, the Pacers disappoint and prove me wrong by stinking up the joint. So, where does that leave me this year? I never learn. I think the Pacers are a playoff team in the East this season. Team president Larry Bird has done a tremendous job building a balanced, fundamentally sound roster. The one spot where Indiana suffered last season was point guard. Last year’s starter, T.J. Ford, was the worst starting point guard in the NBA this side of Chris Duhon. Bird stood pat at last year’s trade deadline because he didn’t get what he felt to be a quality offer for Troy Murphy’s expiring contract. So he held onto Murphy until the off season and got rewarded for his patience. He traded Murphy in an elaborate 4 way trade that brought second year point guard Darren Collison to Indiana. Collison is an excellent point guard prospect. He defends very well and can both pass and score. He has a turnover problem he needs to work on, but he is a young productive player and a great fit in Indiana. So much of Indiana’s success will depend upon the unselfishness of their best player, Danny Granger. Granger came into the league has a hard working player who could defend as well as score. He’s evolved into a high volume low percentage shooter who treats defense as a convenience. If Granger rediscovers his unselfishness, it will go a long way in finally seeing some earnest progress in Indiana.
Detroit Pistons- In Rocky 3, Rocky Balboa looks at Adrian on the beach in the penultimate scene and asks, “How did everything that was so good, get so bad?” Pistons fans have every right to ask the same question. Detroit GM Joe Dumars has loused up this organization up and down the line. And the craziest part about it is that he had actually set things up for the Pistons to rebound quickly as their championship core from 2004 progressed into the back nine of their respective careers. Dumars made a very unpopular but financially clever deal early in the 2008-2009 season by sending popular and accomplished point guard Chauncey Billups to Denver for the eccentric Allen Iverson and his expiring contract. With Rasheed Wallace’s contract also expiring after that season, Dumars had set the Pistons up to be big players in the big free agency frenzy of 2010. Here is where Joe D drove the train off the tracks. Instead of holding the cap room until there were worthy players available, Dumars emptied his barrel by signing undersized guard/chucker Ben Gordon and soft power forward Charlie Villanueva to matching $10 million per year contracts. Gordon got 5 years. Joe D was more frugal with Villanueva giving him 4 years. Gordon was unable to stay healthy all year and was ineffective when he played. Villanueva was quite adept at updating his Twitter account frequently, but fell short in terms of making an impact on the court. So where does that leave the Pistons for this coming season. Their head coach John Kuester, who I’m not very impressed with ( as detailed here http://hoopscritic.blogspot.com/2009_07_01_archive.html) has a very difficult balancing act ahead of him. Kuester needs to give enough playing time to holdovers Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton so Dumars can showcase them to other teams in hopes of moving one or both of them for a meaningful asset. At the same time Kuester needs to get their promising young wing players Austin Daye and DaJuan Summers some significant minutes so they can develop and Dumars can see if these kids can play. So what does Joe D do? He decides to sign the thoroughly washed up Tracy McGrady to a one year deal. The same Tracy McGrady that looked like he needed a walker to get onto the court last season for the Knicks. The bad news for Pistons fans is that despite drafting a good player in Georgetown big man Greg Monroe, there are not enough good players on this team…and the coach is bad too. The good news is that it appears as though Mike Ilitch, the owner of the Detroit Tigers and Detroit Red Wings, is planning on buying the Pistons from the Davidson family. This could very well translate into changes at general manager and coach which would be a good thing. Rarely is the guy who made the mess the right guy to clean the mess and Dumars is no exception. It’s another non playoff season of anti-competitive basketball in Detroit.
Cleveland Cavaliers- It would be bad form to pile on the Cavaliers after the devastation that this organization experienced in the off season. We can debate all year about how much the Cavs are culpable for Lebron’s exit, but it doesn’t change the fact that he took his talents to South Beach. In the wake of Lebron’s departure, the Cavs really only have one choice about what direction they need to go. They need to break it down and start from scratch. The main focus before the trade deadline is to find takers for the contracts of Antawn Jamison, Mo Williams, an Anderson Varejao. There should be a healthy market for Varejao. Jamison and Williams will be much tougher to get rid of. This team, should be built around J.J. Hickson. They refused to move him to make Lebron’s Cavs better, so I would say they’re committed to him. They should also find out if young players Danny Green and Christian Eyenga can play. In most unfortunate fashion, the Cavaliers are going back to the days of being the Cleveland Cadavers for a few years. And by the way, Cavs owner Dan Gilbert needs to be very patient with new head coach Byron Scott. Scott walked into miserable situations in his first two jobs in New Jersey and New Orleans. He turned those around quickly. Scott is not the best tactical coach and can wear of players’ nerves after a few years, but he demands a lot from his players and guys get better on his watch.
Southeast Division (in predicted order of finish)
Miami Heat- Are they going to be great? Duh!!! This will be an outstanding regular season team that will win a minimum of 60 games. They are going to be fun to watch and will attract paparazzi like attention where ever they go. But will they win the title this year? I’m not so sure. I don’t think they did such a great job assembling pieces around their three South Beach Super Heroes ( after all,….they joined forces to be together…). Their best 5 players is a group without a true center and without a true point guard. They won’t beat Boston that way and will have their hands full against the Magic. Miami’s best five players are Superman, Batman, Aquaman, Mike Miller, and Udonis Haslem. That lineup forces Bosh or Haslem to play center which makes them too small. And that lineup forces Wade to defend a point guard, which is not the most efficient use of Wade. Speaking of Wade, his, shall we say, inconsistency on defense the last two seasons has been something that Heat management has looked the other way from primarily because he was becoming a free agent. Now that he’s re-signed and he got to bring his friends with him, it will be interesting to see if he decides to renew his commitment to the defensive end of the floor. The Heat will be great and they’ve given the league a villain and a traveling event all rolled into one. But, as currently constituted, they’re not going to be able to win a playoff series against Boston or the Lakers.
Orlando Magic- The Magic have a very interesting challenge ahead of them for this coming season. How do find a way to improve as a unit when management hasn’t made any appreciable upgrades to the personnel? They added Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson and only subtracted Matt Barnes. So the answer to their question is to focus on the improvement of individual players. The two guys that can really upgrade their games to make the Magic better are Dwight Howard and J.J. Redick. Howard has done off season work with Hakeem Olajuwon. Howard does not need work on his defense and rebounding. He needs help offensively in the post. My biggest criticism of Howard’s post game is that he invited double teams as opposed to forcing them. When he catches a pass in the post, he has a habit of holding or dribbling the ball in place while waiting to begin a move. This gives the defense time to make a choice on whether to double him or not. If he makes his move quickly, he forces the defense to make a faster decision, which gives Howard the advantage. This will also make the decision of when to pass out of a double team easier to make, which is Howard’s other weakness. Redick, on the other hand gave us a glimpse of the type of impact wing player he could be in last year’s playoffs. He has become a tenacious defender and is still a dead eye shooter. He has also developed his athleticism and conditioning to a point where he is a perfect fit for how Orlando wants to play. The thing about the Magic is this. They were an excellent regular season team last year and will be an excellent regular season team this year. The Magic struggled last year in the playoffs because they didn’t play fast enough for the lineup that coach Stan Van Gundy employs. By playing Rashard Lewis at big forward most of the time, Orlando is a little small to match up with the Celtics. This would be okay, if they were completely committed to pushing the tempo all the time. But point guard Jameer Nelson was more interested in slowing down the tempo so he could run the pick and roll. And it didn’t seem like Stan Van Gundy was emphasizing a speedy tempo as much as he should have. If the Magic end up matched up with one of the big, elite teams, and they choose to play slow, Van Gundy has to play long stretches with Howard and his secret weapon, 7 footer Marcin Gortat, on the floor together. If they get caught in the half court with a small lineup, they are way too susceptible to the perimeter whims of Nelson and Vince Carter. But Stan has always been set in his ways, so there’s no reason to think he’ll change. I see the Magic with a 55 win season and a 2nd round playoff exit.
Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks did something this off season that they rarely do. They spent money and lots of it. They re-signed Joe Johnson to a 6 year max contract. The problem is that Johnson was probably the wrong guy to pay that kind of money. As the years have passed, Johnson has become less of a well rounded player and more of a high volume, low percentage shooter who doesn’t defend all that well. Unfortunately for the Hawks, they, like Orlando, were unable to make any kind of meaningful roster upgrades. They are working feverishly to sign young big man Al Horford to a long term contract. The franchise is looking to build a perennial winner around Johnson, Horford, and Josh Smith, who they extended last year. They are also steadfastly refusing to extend all-world chucker Jamal Crawford, which shows that they are in tune with what they need. Second year guard Jeff Teague should fill Crawford’s role cheaper and much more efficiently. The bad news in all of this for the Hawks is that they haven’t gotten much better in a conference where the top teams improved significantly. So, although there is a future here, this roster will still only translate into a first round playoff loss.
Washington Wizards-The Wizards are much closer to having last year’s disaster turned around than they deserve. GM Ernie Grunfeld overplayed his hand last year by trading the #5 pick in the draft for two bench players in Randy Foye and Mike Miller who were much closer to being part of the problem than being part of the solution. Ernie’s indigestion really hit high gear when the pick he traded turned out to be Ricky Rubio. And just when Ernie thought it couldn’t get any worse, Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenden tried to turn the Wizards locker room into the final scene of Scarface. Ernie’s decision to break it down at the trade deadline and unload Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, and Brendan Haywood was clearly the right one. And the hoop gods rewarded him with the winning ping pong ball in the draft lottery and the prestigious honor to draft can’t miss point guard John Wall. Wall is a superb athlete that will be one of the best in the league at the position once he learns the nuances. But Ernie didn’t stop there. He rented some cap space to the Chicago Bulls for Kirk Hinrich and a first round pick that ended up being big man Kevin Seraphin. Hinrich will be a fantastic mentor to Wall who should offset any negative influence that emanates from the toxic Arenas. Ernie also may have pulled off a coup in renting more cap space to the Nets for disappointing forward Yi Jianlian. Yi has had an excellent off season and looked like a different player for China in the World Championships. With his contract expiring at the end of the season, the Wizards get a free look. The Wiz may not be good enough to make the playoffs this season, but their time as a lottery team will be short. They’ve got plenty of better days ahead and soon.
Charlotte Bobcats- With the way the Bobcats are set up for this season, I have to figure that head coach Larry Brown makes it no further than the All-Star break without gargling Drano. They lost their point guard Raymond Felton to free agency and Larry trusts last year’s backup D.J. Augustin about as much as Elin Nordegren trusts Tiger Woods. His other choices are Shawn Livingston, who already is having pain in his surgically repaired knee and Javaris “Quick Draw” Crittenden. On top of this, the Bobcats have chosen to get in bed with some bad attitudes who they desperately need to be key players. In the right situation, Stephen Jackson and Tyrus Thomas are major contributors. Jackson can carry the load and Thomas is a young athletic big with a ton of upside. But if the wheels start falling off, these two will turn on Larry faster than a race car on a tight turn. The Bobcats made their maiden playoff appearance last season. But their inability to upgrade the roster in a meaningful way is going to put them right back in the lottery.
Playoff Seeds
1) Miami
2) Boston
3) Chicago
4) Orlando
5) Milwaukee
6) Atlanta
7) New York
8) Indiana
First Round
Miami over Indiana
Boston over New York
Chicago over Atlanta
Orlando over Milwaukee
Second Round
Miami over Orlando
Boston over Chicago
East Finals
Boston over Miami
As much as the Heat have done to build a championship team, this coming season is going to function more as a learning experience. Management will learn exactly what needs to be put in place around the James, Wade, and Bosh. And James, Wade, and Bosh will learn what it takes to play the type of physical, fundamental basketball it takes to win a title. Now before you say it, I know Wade has won one already. But he was a different player then. He was more fearless and a little more athletic than he is now. But the most important thing is that he had Shaq at the tail end of his prime. The Celtics now have an over the hill version of Shaq. However, Shaq at this stage of his career is exactly what the Celtics need to keep their status as Eastern kings. This incarnation of the Heat will win a title or two….but not so fast.
I’ll be back next week with my West preview. Giddyap. Y’all be cool.
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