Thursday, April 30, 2009

Some random thoughts as I mirror Charles Barkley's bewilderment as to why most guys who go bald decide to grow beards......



I have to confess, I'm not really feeling all of this Ben Gordon love. He signed a one year tender with the Bulls before the season began and prevailing wisdom is that his performance in the playoffs has put him in line for a big multi year contract. This is a classic case of buyer beware. No doubt, Gordon can score, but thats all he can do. He certainly can't defend. Ray Allen has exposed him in a big way in this series. And Gordon never met a shot he didn't like. As soon as a teammate passes the ball to Gordon, its rebounding time. He's sort of like the NBA's version of the Bermuda Triangle. And someone is going to give him 50 million for 5 years. And I'm going to laugh.......



While we're on that series, I need to comment on the two point guards. Rajon Rondo has been statistically dominant in this series. The most impressive thing about his game is his ability to give the Celtics exactly what they need, when they need it. He has developed his shooting enough to be an all around threat. Doc Rivers and the Celtics coaching staff deserve a tremendous amount of credit for his development. With that said, these comparisons to Derrick Rose have to stop. Derrick Rose is as unique a guard as you'll ever see in this league. And the matchup between the two has been compelling to watch. But can I remind everyone that if Rose stayed in college, he would just be completing his SOPHOMORE year. Point guards never learn the NBA game as fast as Rose has learned it. He is a very good NBA point guard right now at the age of 20. And the sky is the limit. The Rondo/Rose comparison may seem relevant now, but in three years it won 't be. Rose will blow him out of the water.



And while I'm on point guards, does anyone agree with me that Stephon Marbury probably would have been better off sitting the year than going to the Celtics if his goal was to get a contract for next year. The big worry was Marbury's ability to play within a team concept. Someone might have taken a chance on that. What no one actually considered is Marbury's skills have eroded and he actually kind of stinks. He went from being a bad teammate and a good player to being a good teammate and a bad player. In game 4 of this series, which went to double overtime, Rajon Rondo played 55 of a possible 58 minutes in the game. Rondo's backup, Marbury, played 5 minutes. In Game 6 of this series, a triple overtime game, Rondo played 58 out of a possible 63 minutes in the game. Marbury played 8 minutes. One of my column contributors enlightened me to the inevitable truth. The Celtics signed Marbury in case Rondo got hurt, not to be a capable backup. This has been a staggering fall from grace for Marbury, the once renowned coach killer. Somewhere out there, Larry Brown is laughing......so is Lenny Wilkens, Don Chaney, Isiah Thomas, John Calipari, Keith Van Horn, Kurt Thomas, etc....



As you could probably surmise, I'm very impressed with Phil Jackson's decision to move Lamar Odom back to the starting lineup. Andrew Bynum may have a very bright future, but he's not leading the Lakers to a title. Odom is the only player the Lakers have that creates a matchup problem for the Houston Rockets, including Kobe Bryant. Shane Battier's going to guard Kobe most of the series and when he doesn't, Ron Artest will take him. And life will be rough for Kobe in this series. The Rockets beat up Brandon Roy like Clubber Lang pounded Rocky Balboa in the first fight of Rocky 3. Kobe will have to take a lot more perimeter jump shots in the name of self preservation, which is why Odom will be so important. The Rockets best defender on Odom is probably Artest. If Rocket coach Rick Adelman decides to play Artest on Odom, he'll be forced to play a smaller lineup which would force either Yao Ming or Luis Scola to the bench, which does not play to the Rockets' strength. With that said, I've been on the Rockets all season long and I'm not stopping now. Rockets will win this gutter war in 7 games. Think of it as the Rocky Balboa/Apollo Creed fight in Rocky 2.

While we're on the Houston Rockets, there are two individual redemption stories in process on that team right now and very few are noticing. After Ron Artest ran into the stands on one fateful night in Detroit on November 19, 2004, his NBA career was left for dead. The Indiana Pacers tried to make it work with him, but Ron wasn't ready to be contrite enough for his actions and the Pacers were rightfully short on patience. Finally, on January 24, 2006, the Pacers traded Artest to virtual basketball purgatory in the name of a declining Sacramento Kings team. Almost instantanouesly after the Kings acquired Artest, they went on on a run and qualified as the #8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs. They were defeated by the defending champion San Antonio Spurs in 6 games in the first round, but Artest proved himself to Kings coach Rick Adelman. Artest and Adelman forged such a good relationship, that Artest offerred up his salary for King ownership to retain Adelman. It didn't work and Adelman was fired. This past offseason when the Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey had the opportunity to acquire Artest at cents on the dollar because of Ron's bad reputation, he jumped at the opportunity. And it has paid off big time. You see, Ron Artest was always that player who had the big "What if?" attahced to his NBA career. What if he didn't run into the stands that night? What if he didn't leave the Pacers midseason to make a rap album? What if he grew up and actually realized his potential? This season, this Rockets team, and this role for Ron Artest has separated him from the big, "What if?". He is their offensive, defensive, and spiritual leader. He truly brings something different every night. If either takes the toughest perimeter player on the other team or plays passing lanes like demons. The entire offense runs through him and he plays extremely unselfish basketball. He feeds the post effectively and often which keeps the big men happy. During last night's postgame press conference, the affection between Artest and Yao Ming was evident. And he has kept his emotions in check. The best thing that happened to the Rockets was trading for Ron in the offseason. And the 2nd best thing that happened was losing Tracy McGrady for the season. It made the Rockets Ron Artest's team. And that had made all the difference. You may not like Ron Artest, but you wish he was on your team.

The second redemption story on the Rockets this year revolves around their center, 7'6" Yao Ming. Yao Ming was the first pick in the 2002 NBA draft, a relatively unknown commodity from China. He was a giant of a man who supposedly could shoot. When Yao got to Houston, the Rockets soon saw they had so much more. In Yao's rookie year, he finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting to Amare Stoudemire. Before Yao's 2nd season began, the Rockets hired Jeff Van Gundy as their coach. Yao improved significantly in his 2nd and 3rd seasons under Van Gundy and the expert tutelage of Rockets assistant coach Patrick Ewing. In both of those seasons, Yao was the starting center for the Western Conference all star team. Although we could point out the obvious ballot box stuffing by a rapidly expanding Chinese contingent of NBA fans, Yao's play was worthy of the honor. Then, it started to unwind for Yao rather steadily. He missed chunks of two seasons with injuries. There were rumblings that Yao's commitment to international play for his native China was making him more injury prone for the Rockets. So, when he missed the 2nd half of last season and the Rockets finished the 2nd half of a 22 game win streak without him, he was starting to become a punch line to an NBA draft joke. Then, this season happened. Yao stayed healthy. Yao averaged 19 points a game and 10 rebounds a game. But, most importantly, Yao became a defensive force. Physically, he's an animal. He absorbs a tremendous amount of abuse. He plays excellent post defense. He plays excellent help defense. He doesn't always look pretty doing it, but he is as complete a big man that currently plays in the league. And whether you choose to view this as a coincidence or not, he has become a more selfless agressive player once Tracy McGrady got hurt.

In a nutshell, the way Artest and Yao play the game, make them both very easy to root for. Right now, its a good story. But can it become a great one??

Its a good thing for the Rockets that they beat the Portland Trailblazers in this year's playoffs, because it may be difficult for anyone to do it again anytime in the near future. The Blazers were as impressive as a team can be when its defeated in a series in 6 games. First off, Brandon Roy is a star right now. He's Dwyane Wade without the championship ring and those silly, forced, uncomfortable T-Mobile commercials. And LaMarcus Aldridge is a big time power forward who needs to improve his defense. The rest of their core is young. Rudy Fernandez reminds me of former Blazer and New Jersey Net star Drazen Petrovic and Blazer coach Nate McMillan has got to find more minutes for him. For the record, McMillam realized that and started Fernandez in Game 6. The only issue for the Blazers revolves around the oldest 21 year old in the world, Greg Oden. If Oden can be a productive, healthy role player, the Blazers have something very special. Unfortunately for them, Oden has specialized in getting injured and commmitting fouls. Just last week, he pulled a groin and got benched with three fouls while he was making a pass at his girlfriend, but I digress. If Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard can upgrade from Steve Blake at point guard, and Oden can be more Forrest Gump than Benjamin Button, they might just be dominating June for years to come.

Please don't be mad at me for using the Greg Oden/Benjamin Button again. I really think its funny....

It would be quite interesting to kidnap Dwyane Wade, inject him with truth serum, and interrogate him about the feeble group of amateurs that Pat Riley has surrounded him with. Before you call the authorities, remember there's no such thing as truth serum and I don't have a history of kidnapping professional athletes. Regardless of the outcome of this Atlanta series, the Heat will have a very interesting summer ahead of them. Wade is a free agent in 2010. And as much as Wade loves South Beach, I get the impression he likes winning more. If the Heat are unable to surround him with better talent this offseason, Wade could bolt next offseason. With interesting destinations like New York and Detroit in the market for high paid superstars in the summer of 2010, Miami's window to build a good team around Wade is closing fast. Wade's career will not last as long as it could with the physical abuse he takes in Miami. And he is a sharp enough guy to realize it. Last year's big move to upgrade looks like a big dud. The #2 pick in last year's draft Michael Beasley doesn't appear to be the answer. If Beasley doesn't develop soon, it may be bad news in South Florida.

While we're in Florida, I owe an apology to Stan Van Gundy. He got his Orlando Magic to blow out the Philadelphia 76ers and the Magic were playing without Dwight Howard, who was lost for a justified suspension. The two big discoveries in Game 6 of that series were the fact that Sixers' coach Tony DiLeo is not so good with adjustments and Magic backup center, Marcin Gortat can really play. Gortat's 11 point 15 rebound performance made Howard's absence virtually irrelevant. My bet is that Stan is smart enough to realize that his team can match up much better with EVERYONE left in the playoffs playing Howard and Gortat together. The Magic's big weakness is their love affair with the three point shot and the lack of inside support for Dwight Howard. Playing Gortat next to Howard helps address both of those problems. It will be interesting to see if Van Gundy sees it that way.

I am not anticipating a competitive series between Denver and Dallas. I don't drink the Jason Kidd kool-aid. Additionally, Kenyon Martin will guard Dirk Nowitski well and Josh Howard is going to develop whiplash watching Carmelo Anthony repeatedly blow by him. My prediction is that Mark Cuban will be using barf bags behind the Maverick bench by the time we reach the 2nd quarter of Game 4.

As we've seen two very proud and accomplished franchises of the last decade, the San Antonio Spurs and the Detriot Pistons, it begs the question, is this the end of an era for both franchises. In one case its simple. Stick a fork in the Pistons, they're done. Time to break it down and start over. Let Rasheed Wallace sign somewhere else as a free agent. Trade Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Antonio McDyess. It would be very different right now in Detroit if general manager Joe Dumars didn't pass on Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh in the 2003 draft in favor of foreign unknown Darko Milicic. Dumars doesn't take close to as much heat as he should for that blunder. It will also be interesting to see how far that 2004 championship trophy carries Dumars after his chief ally in Pistons owner Bill Davidson has passed away.

The Spurs are a little bit of a different story. Tim Duncan could probably give them another high level season if his minutes are regulated, which is coach Greg Popovich's specialty. Tony Parker is in his prime. And if Manu Ginobili's ankle is okay and his minutes are regulated (which they always are), the Spurs have their core in tact. However, they need more help than that. Their ultimate problem is that wing players Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley are playing the 18th hole of their respective careers. The two of them look so slow and old on the court, I'm not sure I'd want either of them on my over 40 synangogue team. At this past season's trade deadline, the Spurs kicked the tires on the Nets' Vince Carter. They would be smart to revisit this. Carter has become a very unselfish efficient player. He would fit in very well with this Spurs group. He could make them elite as Duncan and Ginobili reach the twilight of their repsective careers. And he can help keep the Spurs competitive with Parker as they move past the Duncan/Ginobili era. The only issue is Carter's bloated contract. The Spurs need to decide how much they want to pay to make one more run. Logic would dictate they take the shot. Tim Duncan is a once in a lifetime player for an organization. And you never know when you will get another shot to be a contender. Food for thought.

Enjoy the Game 7s. Giddyap. Y'all be cool.

Friday, April 24, 2009

One week into the NBA playoffs, a bunch of things I've seen surprise me. Others, not so much.

I am surprised that the Miami Heat responded so well to their Game 1 beating at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. Their coach Eric Spoelstra does an outstanding job. He's got Dwyane Wade and a bunch of CBA quality players and he keeps them more than competitive. Don't look now but Pat Riley is getting that franchise turned around quick. Spoelstra better watch his back. He may only stay around long enough for Riley to pull the plug on him to return to the sideline himself in time to win another ring. Just ask Stan Van Gundy....

Speaking of Stan Van Gundy, I am surprised that it appears that he's losing his team. The Orlando Magic have had a great year. But in watching them in the playoffs, it has become painfully obvious that his players are not responding the all of the hollering and histrionics. The Sixers are a spirited enough opponent to take advantage of the kinks in the Orlando armor. It seems like the Magic are playing these games very tight. They take way too many three point shot. And they're perimeter defense is weak, which can be a killer against the athletic Sixers. This is not an easy matchup for the Magic under the best of circumstances, but my man Stan is setting him up to be the fall guy because of his bellicose sideline demeanor.

I am not surprised that the New Orleans Hornets are quitting on Byron Scott. Scott is generally a finger pointer when it comes to his players. He can get by for a year or two, selling his finger pointing under the guise of accountability. But his act becomes transparent quickly. This is a young, talented team, but they lack effort at times and play with a collective body language normally reserved for solitary confinement at a prison ward. The only reason Scott will survive this offseason as coach is because owner George Shinn would rather keep a bad coach than pay two.

I am not surprised that the Lakers are in a dog fight with the Utah Jazz. I don't think the Jazz can beat them, but the Lakers have some serious issues on the defensive end of the floor. And I think if you force fed Phil Jackson some truth serum, he'd admit to you the same thing.

And while I'm still on the theme of coaches, I'm very surprised about the 180 that Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro has done this season. Not only has he grown nicely into the job, but their young players are improving under him. Joakim Noah has improved immensely. He has become an outstanding defensive player and a very good screen and roll big man. Between that and his hair, he looks a little like Rebecca Lobo out there, but I digress. Del Negro has taken a lot of heat for not having time outs available in the closing seconds of the first two games of this series. But if you don't use them, you lose them. He called the timeouts he needed to call to gvet them to the end. And they managed to win one late on the road. Also, keep in mind he's without his 2nd best player in Luol Deng. No matter how this Celtics series turns out, the Bulls have turned the corner.

I am completely surprised that Yao Ming only had 6 shots in Game 2 of the Rockets-Blazers series. I will be even more surprised if we see Yao take so few shots again in another game in these playoffs.

I am not surprised that the Cavs are dominating the Pistons. There is no team in the league that is as imposing defensively as the Cavaliers. And the faster they can finish off the Pistons, the more rest they can get. Whcih would make them that much tougher to beat come mid June.

I am totally suprised that Jeff Van Gundy stole my Benjamin Button/Greg Oden joke. Either great minds think alike or my favorite coach/announcer is secretly reading my blog and I don't know it. And if you're a little uncomfortable with my man crush on the Van Gundys, I understand.

And finally, I'm surprised to the great Tim Duncan playing like a shadow of his former self. Either we're wathcing an all time great get old before our eyes, or he's more injured that the Spurs are letting on. With that sais, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich made a very smart move pulling his starters in the 3rd quarter of a blowout, especially Duncan. Either way, I would not count the Spurs out until they're out. Duncan may not be able to move like he used to, but he knows how to get it on on guts and brains. And if all else fails, he'll blame the refs......Y'all be cool. Giddyap.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

With the NBA playoffs on our doorstep, if we believe everything we read, there's no reason to play anything before the finals. Lets just throw LeBron James and Kobe Bryant in a steel cage and its on. And although that appears as the likely scenario as these playoffs are about to commence, I'm going to tell you why I think that will NOT happen come the start of June.



I must confess that in the East, its virtually impossible to make a case for anyone but the Cleveland Cavaliers. The defending champion Celtics will have too large a mountain to climb in beating the Cavs on the road in the absence of Kevin Garnett. They might not even make it to Cleveland without Garnett. If this were the NCAA tournament, the selection committee would lower their seeding. And the Orlando Magic are not quite ready to take the Cavs. I sit here giggling like a mental patient thinking about Courtney Lee trying to guard LeBron in a playoff games in Cleveland. So before I turn this column into a LeBron love fest, let me get to the point.



The Lakers will not win the West. I think I'm going to say it again for effect.....



The Lakers will not win the West. As a matter of fact, there are four other teams in the West that are more than capable of going to the finals besides for the Lakers. This year's version of the Western Conference is too strong and too talented for it to be anything but wide open.



The Denver Nuggets are starting the playoffs as the #2 team in the West. They went 1-3 against the Lakers this season. One of the losses was before the Billups/Iverson trade. They can be a tough matchup for the Lakers. The Lakers do not have a point guard to match up with Billups. Kobe would actually have to play defense in this series because no on else on the Lakers can guard Carmelo Anthony. Denver's athletic big men, Kenyon Martin and Nene, match up well with the Lakers' bigs. And Nuggets coach George Karl is a good enough coach to neutralize some of the bench advantage that Phil Jackson brings. The one player who can tip this series towards the Lakers is Lamar Odom. He's too big for Anthony to guard and too quick for Martin. But Phil just loooooves Andrew Bynum, so if Odom's hightops gather dust on the bench, the Nuggets are right there.



The Houston Rockets are starting the playoffs as the # 5 team in the West. They lost all four times they played the Lakers this year. I will not let that statistical anomaly deter my analysis. The Rockets have the best Kobe Bryant defender in basketball in Shane Battier. They also match up well with the Laker bigs. Sure they can't guard the Laker bigs, but the Laker bigs can't guard them either. Their lack of a very strong point guard does not hurt them against the Lakers because the Lakers don't have one. And because of their size and great perimeter defense, they can wear the Lakers down in a long series. If this series occurs, it will come down to Bryant's willingness to play team basketball because we know the Rockets will. Kobe will need to spend time guarding Ron Artest, because no one else on the Lakers can. And Kobe will have to share the basketball, because there will be times that Battier keep him from even seeing the basket. This is also a potential series where Phil Jackson's bench advantage will be somewhat neutralized. Rick Adelman is a good coach in his own right and has been going head to head against Phil for years, first in the 91 Bulls-Blazers finals and then in those epic Laker-Sacramento King battles of the early 2000s. This Rocket team is bulit for the playoffs. As you can see, I'm not paying mych attention to their winless regualr season versus the Lakers.

The San Antonio Spurs are the # 3 team in the West. They lost 2 of 3 games against the Lakers in the regular season. The whole world has dismissed them because they will not have Manu Ginobili for the playoffs. In years passed, this would have been devastating for them, but this year they are in a position to replace his clutch production. In typical Spurs fashion, they acquired Roger Mason Jr under the radar in the offseason. He has hit some clutch shots for the Spurs this year and has particularly elevated his game since Ginobili went down for the season. That, in addition to the maturation of Tony Parker could make the Spurs a ton of trouble for the Lakers. And even though the Spurs have no one who can guard Kobe, the Lakers have no one who can guard Parker. The Spurs are deeper than they've been in the past. And Tim Duncan gives the Laker bigs fits. Also, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich is probably the one coach who can outcoach Phil Jackson. If Phil is thinking right, he'll play Odom a ton of minutes at small forward and force Michael Finley to guard him or Kobe. If Phil insists on giving Trevor Ariza and Luke Walton the lion's share of the minutes at small forward, we may be looking at another Finals appearance for this very proud, very accomplished Spurs group.

Thje New Orleans Hornets are the #7 seed in the West. They lost 3 of 4 games versus the Lakers in the regular season. They had alot of injuries all season, but look like they're starting the playoffs healthy. Their point guard, Chris Paul is for the Lakers, which is lucky for the Hornets because they don't have a player on their roster who can even distract Kobe. They have good size across the front line and one of the Laker bigs is going to be pulled to the perimeter to guard Hornet power forward David West. The best guy on the Lakers to handle this job.....(lets say it all together).... Lamar Odom. If Phil buries Odom on the bench in a potential New Orleans series, the Lakers could have more than they can handle. What could save the Lakers in a series like this is the fact that Hornet coach Byron Scott generally coaches in tight spots with two hands wrapped around his own neck. And even though he made two finals trips as the head man (hey now) for the Nets, he's in over his head against Phil Jackson tactically. You could probably say that about Scott going against any other coach in the West, which is the primary reason I list this potential upset as the least likely scenario. That, and I don't think New Orleans can survive Denver in the first round.

So there you have it. Four different scenarios that send NBA commissioner David Stern rushing to his cardiologist. He probably goes into cardiac arrest if he gets a Rockets-Cavs finals and Ron Artest injures LeBron for the series in a game 1 with a flagrant foul.

Now don't get me wrong. I would enjoy a Kobe-LeBron steel cage match. But lets let them do what needs to be done before we crown anyone. In the words of a balding, aging, overweight, broadcaster, who is in dire need of a new catch phrase..... Thats why they play the games.

Giddyap. Y'all be cool