Friday, February 20, 2009

Back from vacation, ready to blog.......

Its been a busy few weeks. There's been a bunch of trades and a load of injuries. There's been some addition by subtraction and some subtraction by subtraction. We'll start with the addition by subtraction.

Those of you who read this space regularly probably got quite the chuckle earlier this week whne you saw across your ESPN scroll that Tracy McGrady went out for the year and Rafer Alston was traded. You probably figured that my Rockets are going deep in the playoffs prediction got thrown out the window before the calendar turned to March. Well, if thats what you figured, you're wrong. Let me be the first to tell you that the Rockets are significantly better without McGrady and Alston and are now more primed than ever to make a run . After you get done calling me ridiculous, I'll be glad to explain.

Tracy McGrady is an extremely talented player. However his shot selection has gone from bad to awful. That combined with his hesitancy to share the basketball has adversely affected the chemistry of the Rockets. One common element to the rest of the Rockets core players is their willingness to play unselfishly. As crazy as Ron Artest is, he will pass the basketball to an open teammate in crunch time to get a better shot. The Rockets will shoot less threes without McGrady and they will have a higher shooting percentage. It will aslo mean more minutes for Artest and Shane Battier, which will mean more defense. With Yao Ming, Luis Scola, and Artest, the Rockets have plenty of scoring. They will stop more people without McGrady and take higher percentage shots. This will lead to more wins.

And although I think the Orlando Magic made a very good trade in acquring Rafer Alston, primarily because he plays a similar style of point guard to the injured Jameer Nelson (although not as effective), this trade makes the Rockets stronger as well. It allows the Rockets to get more minutes for their second year point guard Aaron Brooks. Brooks is a much better pick and roll point guard than Alston. Don't get me wrong, I like Alston's game. But when you have big men like Yao and Scola who can not only handle the ball on the perimeter, but shoot it well also, it becomes a bit of a waste to have a point guard who is more effective penetrating. Brooks' skills complement the two big guys much more than Alston's. That will make the Rockets better.

The next reason to call me an idiot..... the Lakers are better without Andrew Bynum. i know it sounds silly. Bynum appears to be the next great big man in the NBA who has proven that his only real weakness as a player is his ability to stay on the court. Yet somehow the Lakers are a more cohesive unit when Bynum is not in the lineup.

The first reason is obviously the increased minutes for Lamar Odom. I have never been shy about my affection for Odom's game. It borders somewhere between infatuation and love. And as much as I respect Phil Jackson, I have always wondered why he hasn't gotten more out of Odom. So, it was disconcerting to see Odom come off the bench for the first half of the year. But watching the way Odom has dominated since Bynum got injured, I'm seeing the method to Phil's madness. The Lakers lost the finals last year because Kobe Bryant played selfishly and Odom sulked. Only one of those things is curable and it looks like Phil Jackson cured it, because Kobe will always play selfishly, his greatness not withstanding. When Odom is playing his best, his well rounded skill set is much more complementary to Bryant and Pau Gasol. As good as Bynum is, he neutralizes Gasol a little bit. Gasol spends a lot of time trying to stay out of Bynum's way. As long as Odom understands that part of playing well with Bryant is to stay out of his way, he's a better fit playing next to Gasol up front. And the added bonus is that for one reason or another, Luke Walton is a much more effective small forward playing next to Odom. Odom makes other guys better. Whats not to love!!! I'm smitten

The second reason is the selfishness of Kobe Bryant. This is not a bash of Kobe, but quite the opposite. A player like Kobe should have the ball a lot because he can score from anywhere on the court no matter who's playing defense. A big guy like Bynum needs the ball fed to him to be effective, which keeps Kobe feeding the post. Kobe is at his best when he's putting the ball on the floor or posting up himself. If Bynum needs post touches, those are less post touches for Bryant. And Bryant can carry this team back to the finals if his focus is to score closer to the basket. And the more he scores close to the basket, the tougher he will be to guard on the perimeter. And the tougher the Lakers will be in June.

Next reason to tell me I'm nuts. The Suns will be better without Amare Stoudemire. Now I'm cheating on this one a little bit because I don't think its going to to matter for the Suns. They're at best a first round playoff loser regardless and they had to fire their coach to get there, but I still think they will be improved.

This whole Stoudemire-Shaquille O'Neal experiment has been a miserable failure. They occupy the same space on the floor. At this stage, neither of them is a great rebounder. O'Neal is unable to rebound well and Stoudemire is unwilling to . And whats worse than that is that the rest of the team's core plays much more effectively in an up tempo system. Before the Shaq trade, the Suns had an identity. Having two post players with a bunch of greyhounds has put the Suns in no man's land. Not good enough in the halfcourt to get defensive stops and not fast enough to run and out score anyone. Without Stoudemire, new coach Alvin Gentry can play four perimeter players around Shaq and the track meet can begin again. The Suns will definitely win a couple more games playing this way, but it won't make a difference in May. And while I'm on the topic, its been a long time since I've seen a coach treated worse than Terry Porter was in Phoenix. Steve Kerr gave him a group of players who excelled much more at the offensive end of the floor than on defense. Then Kerr told him he wanted the team to play a half court walk the ball up system predicated on defense. Then when Porter had the team on the playoff bubble in the deep Western Conference, Kerr pink slips him and tells Gentry to pick up the tempo. Think Phoenix fans miss the Colangelos? But I digress.......

Onto the subtraction by subtraction situations, a few that look almost irretrievable......

Its also been an intersting week for the San Antonio Spurs. They begin the week rumored to be extremely close to adding Vince Carter, who would have been the perfect player to put them over the hump . His ability to score combined with unselfishness would have been a tremendous complement to the Duncan-Ginobili-Parker trio. They end the week losing one of that trio to injury for a few weeks with more devastating ramifications.

Last sason the Spurs lost the Western Conference finals to the Lakers. Although the Lakers had an excellent team that would have been difficult any season, the reality is that the Spurs didn't have a chance. The reason is simple. Tim Duncan makes the Spurs great, but Manu Ginobili makes them champions. And during that Lakers series Ginobili was physically compromised because of a bad ankle. The way Ginobili plays does not lend itself to playing with a bad wheel. So, when the trade deadline rolls around Wednesday and the Spurs don't get Carter and find out they lost Ginobili to a "stress reaction" in that same ankle, my optimism for their championship aspirations seriously wanes.

My last subtraction by subtraction example is a little more obvious, so I'm not really out on a limb when I say that without a healthy Kevin Garnett, there is no way the Celtics go back to the finals, let alone repeat. And I will take it one step further in saying that this 2-4 week period in which the Celtics will be without Garnett, will be enough to keep the Celtics from winning the East.

The reason for this is pretty simple. Without Garnett, the Celtics are barely average. And barely average will not hold up when your neck and neck with LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers for home court advantage in the Eastern Conference, even if its just for two weeks.

The Cavs have it all going on. They've got a tight group who are in lock step with the coach. They've had some injuries and their depth has been tested, yet their entire bench has responded admirably. They stand up for one another. And most of all, they have the best player on the planet. With the year LeBron James is having, I cannot believe anyone will come into Cleveland and beat him in a game 7 come playoff time. From every indication, including this Garnett injury, its the Cavs year up and down the line.

Y'all be cool. Giddyap.