Plenty of trades, plenty of draft picks with plenty to say.......
Its very difficult to not like the San Antonio Spurs acquisition of forward Richard Jefferson for nothing but salary cap fodder ( Francisco Oberto, Bruce Bowen, and Kurt Thomas) from the Milwaukee Bucks. However, I'm not sure that he's going to help as much as they think he will. When Jefferson first came into the league, he was a tenacious defender who took the ball to the basket aggressively and often. As the years have worn on, he has become more of an average defensive player and more of a perimeter shooter. The problem is that he's not a very good perimeter shooter and his shot selection is spotty at best. The Spurs have always played a team game on both ends of the floor. Jefferson may not fit in as seamlessly as they believe.
With that said, what's going on in Milwaukee? Last June they traded their 1st round pick (6th overall) Yi Jianlian to the Nets for Richard Jefferson. This June, they trade Jefferson for three guys they're going to cut. And it appears that they are going to use the money to retain point guard Ramon Sessions. This will come right on the heels of drafting point guard Brandon Jennings with their #1 pick this year. Keeping in mind that August of last year, they completed a trade for point guard Luke Ridnour. Their rebuilding plan resembles a moving target. Being a Bucks fan is worse than being one of Jon and Kate's eight.
From a basketball standpoint, the biggest non story of the offseason so far has been the Cavaliers acquisition of Shaquille O'Neal. Shaq is the biggest of the big names and will certainly make the Cavs more interesting to watch, but he's not going to cure what ailed the Cavs in their playoff loss to the Orlando Magic.
The Cavaliers had an outstanding regular season on the strength of their half court defense. They were at their best on both sides of the court playing at a slow pace. In the Orlando series, they were caught from moment one in Orlando's up and down the floor fast paced transition game. And they were not athletic enough to keep up with the Magic. Shaq is a very nice luxury to have. But if you're not going to slow the game down to feed him in the post, he becomes a very expensive statue. The Cavs under utilized their main post presence in Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Obviously Shaq, even at this stage of his career, is much better than Ilgauskas. But if he's not getting the ball, he's useless. He can't thrive in an uptempo system ( i.e the 2008-2009 Phoenix Suns). And this notion that he can help stop Dwight Howard is laughable. The best thing Shaq has in relation to Howard is the ability to create 12 Howard free throws over the course of a game. Very frankly, the Cavs 2nd round draft choice, Danny Green from North Carolina will be a lot more helpful in a series next year against the Magic than the artist formerly known as Shaquille O'Neal. And the task of keeping up with the Magic didn't get any easier with their acquisition of Vince Carter.....
Speaking of Vince Carter, this is one of those few NBA trades that every party involved actually benefits. I will preface this analysis by saying I am a big Vince Carter fan. He gets a very bad rap in this league for quitting on the Toronto Raptors in 2004. And Vince was dead wrong back then. But I believe he righted that sin by being not only a good soldier on a somewhat hopeless New Jersey Net team last season, but an enthusiastic leader who set a very professional example for a very young team. He played unselfish basketball and took an interest in the improvement of the younger players. He deserves a shot at a title a lot more than the coach killing, hypocritical Jason Kidd, who quit on Vince's Nets, but I digress.
I love this trade for Orlando. They get Carter and Ryan Anderson and gave up cap fodder in Tony Battie and Rafer Alston and a promising young player in Courtney Lee. This makes the Magic more athletic and more importantly gives them leverage against a likely Hedo Turkoglu defection. Now if Turkoglu wants to return, it will be On Orlando's terms. Orlando GM Otis Smith derserves a lot of credit for pulling the trigger on this deal.
I like this trade for the Nets as well. Lee is unique in the respect that he's 21 years old with some significant playoff experience under his belt. He is a tough, athletic kid who works hard and doesn't intimidate easily. He can shoot it a little bit and seems to understand NBA defense. He also handles the ball well, which makes him a good backcourt partner to Devin Harris. The Nets also save a lot of money in this deal and open up a lot of cap space for the 2010 free agent class. And with a young nucleus of Lee, Harris, and center Brook Lopez, the Nets have assembled an attractive supporting cast to the array of free agent superstars anticipated to be available next year. Good work by Nets president Rod Thorn.
The other deal from draft week was the Washington Wizards trading away the fifth pick of the first round and three bad contracts (Etan Thomas, Darius Songalia, and Oleksiy Pecherov) to the Minnesota Timberwolves for guards Randy foye and Mike Miller. Before I tell you how much I despise this trade for Washington, let me first tell you that I have always had a great amount of respect for Washington general manager Ernie Grunfeld. He's always been very creative and resourceful when building a team, the Wizards included. But Ernie has made some decisions in the past 9 months that qualify as head scratchers. He fired a very good coach in Eddie Jordan less than 1 month into the season with a 1-10 record on a team besieged by injuries. He hired long time personnel executive Ed Tapscott as interim coach. And no, Knick fans that was not a gas bubble you just had, it was your muscle memory of the gut punch you felt that fateful 1999 draft night when Tapscott selected the immortal Frederic Weis with the 15th pick of the first round leaving Ron Artest on the board. Tapscott lead the Wizards to an 18-53 record to finish out the season. Eddie Jordan was out of work less than a season as he was hired to coach the Philadelphia 76ers not long after the season. Needless to say, I found Jordan's firing and Tapscott's subsequest hiring more than a little curious.
Which brings us to the Foye/Miller trade. When Grunfeld made this deal it made it very clear that this was a trade with the short term in mind. Some so called experts have even predicted that this trade would catapult the Wizards into the elite of the Eastern Conference. I'm not sipping from that Kool Aid jug. The Wizards were a 19 win team last year. I understand that Gilbert Arenas was out all year, but guys like Foye and Miller don't make you an elite contender. They help you get the #8 seed in the playoffs and a quick ticket home from Cleveland/Orlando/Boston, which is NBA no man's land. Either you're competing for a title or you're rebuilding. When you get stuck in between, you become the Knicks from the last decade. No matter what Grunfeld thought of this draft, the Wizards are best served with a young player contributing as he develops. To take it a step further, this trade wreaks of Grunfeld being concerned for his job and looking for a quick turnaround. Those turnarounds don't happen unless you can acquire Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the same offseason while they both have plenty left in the tank.
There was plenty I liked about the draft and plenty, well.....not so much.
I liked what Minnestoa GM David Kahn did in drafting point guards Ricky Rubio and Johnny Flynn with the #5 and #6 picks. He increased his odds greatly to have a solid point guard for the next 10 years, and if ends up with two solid point guards, he's got a very tradable commodity. He kept a good eye on the long term picture for a team that won't be competing for a title in the next 3 years.
I liked Sacramento's selection of Tyreke Evans with the #4 pick. The Kings need good athletes and Evans is an exceptional one.
I did not like the Knicks selection of Jordan Hill at #8. He seems destined for a very pedestrian career. And why, in a point guard heavy draft, with a fast tempo system, would Knick GM Donnie Walsh pass on a fast break point guard like Ty Lawson. Even if Walsh didn't like Lawson (by the way, I LOVE Lawson), take a shot on someone like Brandon Jennings who at least is suppossed to have the skill set to run the system. I don't think Walsh has this ship moving in the right direction.
I liked Indiana's selection of Tyler Hansbrough with the #13 pick. Hansbrough may not end up being a star, but he will be a solid contributor for years to come.
I did not like Detroit's selection of Austin Daye with the #15 pick. Daye's upside is that he turns out to be Tayshaun Prince, and as effective as Prince is, I don't think the Pistons need two of him. In addition, I think Daye is a bust waiting to happen. He does not seem cut out to be physical enough to be any kind of NBA defender.
As you probably would figure, I predictably love the Denver trade for the #18 pick and Ty Lawson. The prevailing thought is that Lawson will serve as Chauncey Billups backup, but I think Lawson will be much more. I think that Denver coach George "the Animal" Karl will use Lawson and Billups together a whole bunch. Billups is strong enough to cover wing players. And Billups tendency to channel his inner Iverson and fire bad threes off the dribble will be mitigated with him playing off the ball. It also helps the Nuggets salary cap wise because playing Lawson and Billups together will not make it necessary to overpay last year's starting two guard Dahntay Jones. They can now devote that money to resigning the legendary Chris "Birdman" Anderson.
I like Utah's pick of Virginia Commonwealth guard Eric Maynor at #20. Similar philosophy to what Denver did. Because Utah point guard Deron Williams has good size, he can defend the two guards. And Maynor has good scoring ability off the dribble and is more than skilled enough to be an effective wing player offensively as well as an efficient point guard.
I also like Sacramento's pick at #23, Israeli forward Omir Casspi. He's an energetic, athletic 6'9" forward who doesn't intimidate easily and has confidence in his ability. The Kings had a very good draft.
I did not like the Cavs selection of Christian Eyenga, a forward from the Congo, with the last pick of the first round. The Cavs need wing athletes, preferably one who can shoot. When your team is in a position to compete for a title, making first round picks to stash over in Europe to develop for a few years defeats the purpose. They got very lucky that Danny Green fell to them in the 2nd round at #46. Green is an athletic wing who can shoot and defend who hung around far too long in this draft.
Speaking if guys who hung around far too long, I love the San Antonio Spurs selection of Pittsburgh forward DeJuan Blair in the 2nd round (#37). Blair is a player whose development as a pro was going to be largely dependent on which organization selected him. If he ended up in Minnesota or Memphis, I'm not sure he would have all that much impact. But Blair hit the lottery in San Antonio. He is a very physical player who will take a lot of the physical load off of Tim Duncan. And playing with seasoned veterans who win championships like Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker will do wonders for Blair learning what it takes to be a winning basketball player. This also obviously works out great for the Spurs. Blair will be the first big man off of their bench and be able to provide a low post presence while Duncan gets his much needed rest. This is a marriage made in heaven.
I find it impossible to pan a 2nd round pick, because in reality there are only shots in the dark anyway. So here are the 2nd round picks I think could succeed and make someone's rotation.
Pitt's Sam Young to the Grizzlies at #36
Arizona's Chase Budinger to the Rockets at #44
North Carolina's Danny Green to Cleveland at #46
Oklahoma's Taylor Griffin to Phoenix at #48
Michigan State's Goran Suton to Utah at #50 (good draft for the Jazz)
Connecticut's AJ Price to Indiana at #52 (good draft for the Pacers)
Back next week to sort out the free agency madness. Y'all be cool. Giddyap.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Some wrap up business on the Finals and my mock draft
Before I convey a few random thoughts about the quick work the Lakers made of the Magic, I'd like to respond to the slew of e-mail that I've received from some readers who wanted to take me to task about my merciless assault on Laker point guard Derek Fisher in this space. Here is my response: Fisher's still washed up.
I know that Fisher hit two very big three pointers in the Lakers game 4 overtime win. The first one tied the game with 4 seconds left in regulation and the second one gave the Lakers a 3 point lead in the overtime, a lead the Lakers would never relinquish. But that still doesn't change the fact that Fisher is athletically inferior to every guard he plays against. And who says that Shannon Brown could not have hit big threes if given the chance. I would never have played Fisher as much as Jackson in every series and I stand by it. But then again, Phil Jackson has 10 championship rings and all I have are a couple of wedding rings, so there you go.
Speaking of Philosophical Phil, I think this was his 2nd best coaching job ever. His best was the 1994 Bulls when he had a 55 win season without Michael Jordan and was a bad Hue Hollins whistle from being in the NBA finals. And his 3rd best was the Bulls 72 win season in 1996 that culminated in a title. His finest coaching moment of the series was with 10 seconds left in regulation of game 2, he was able to put a defense on the floor that had the Magic's two shot opportunities to win the game attempted by Orlando's 5th option, Courtney Lee.
A quick note on Kobe Bryant. He changed his game just enough to put the Lakers over the top. Make no mistake. Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol didn't get any better this year. Kobe just played with them more allowing their vast talent to matter for the Lakers. Kobe even starting regularly feeding Gasol in the post down the stretch of games. Don't get me wrong. Kobe isn't exactly the most humble guy in the world. But he played enough team basketball to lead his team to a title and he deserves a lot of credit for that. Now that I just threw up in my mouth, its onto my mock draft.
Most scouts and NBA executives are calling this draft the worst in years. I wholeheartedly disagree. If you need a point guard, this draft is a good place to find one. This draft may be lacking star power, but there's a lot of players in this draft who will be contributors. Too many personnel executives shoot for the moon in the draft. The same chance exists to unearth a star in drafting for contributors than drafting to find the next Michael Jordan (remember Harold "Baby Jordan" Miner). With that in mind, lets begin.
1) LA Clippers- Blake Griffin (F) Oklahoma- The closest thing there is to a sure thing in this draft. The way I see it it is the only thing that can ruin him is that Creepy Clipper Karma. And that has powers we beyond anything that can be analyzed.
2) Memphis- Ricky Rubio (G) Spain- I believe Memphis GM Chris Wallace when he says they are very interested in Rubio and will not let threats from Rubio's camp that Rubio won't come to Memphis prevent Wallace from drafting him. Rubio needs to be the highest pick he can to make enough money to buy himself out of his Spanish league contract. If Memphis selects him, Rubio will come. He'll have fellow Spanish Olympic teammate Marc Gasol waiting for him. Rubio will be a good NBA point guard. He can play NBA level defense at a very young age. He guarded Chris Paul and Deron Williams very effectively in the Olympic gold medal game. Needs to watch his turnovers
3) Oklahoma City- Hasheem Thabeet (C) Connecticut- Thabeet is in the Dikembe Mutombo mold. Very good shot blocker. Very good rebounder. He's adequate offensively. He has great size at 7'3". But needs to add toughness. Got pushed around a lot in Big East play for a guy this size. If the Tin Man finds his heart, Oklahoma City's got themselves a real good center. For the record, I do think Thabeet toughens up and becomes a good center.
4) Sacramento- Stephen Curry (G) Davidson- Curry is an excellent shooter who can fill it up quick. But I question his ability to be a point guard and he's way too skinny to be an effective wing player. Has questionable shot selection for a guy who suppossedly has a "high basketball IQ". I wouldn't take him this early, but a lot of teams are enamored with him. Probably ends up as a good bench player.
5) Washington- Tyreke Evans (G) Memphis- Evans is a great fit for the Wizards. Handles the ball enough to allow Gilbert Arenas to play some on the wing as a scoring guard. And Evans is a tremendous athlete who should evolve into a decent wing defender. He could play a big role in the Wizards turning it around fast.
6) Minnesota- James Harden (G) Arizona St.- Minnesota's back court is a mess. Harden will help stabilize it. Not the best athlete, but a good scorer and a physically tough player for 6"5". Could certainly be part of the long term solution on Minnesota.
7) Golden St.- Jrue Holiday (G) UCLA- Warrior coach Don Nelson (who's back in charge after inserting a ginsu into Chris Mullin's delicate back) will not be able to resist an athlete like Holiday. Holiday's workouts have suppossedly been off the charts. Scouts are drooling over him ignoring the fact that he wasn't all that good a player for UCLA last year. He could develop, but a coin toss is more certain.
8) New York- Ty Lawson (G) North Carolina- Many scouts think this is early for Lawson and maybe a little wishful thinking by this Knick fan, but I think Lawson is going to be one of the top 3 point guards in the league. He's fast, strong, and unselfish. He's a decent shooter, an agressive and willing defender, and he doesn't turn the ball over much. Scouts are concerned about his height and his work ethic. Last time I checked, the best point guard in the league Chris Paul is 5"11" and strong as an ox, just like Lawson. Thats right, I went there. Lawson was the most important player for the champion Tar Heels and played the NCAA tournament with a very bad toe. A great fit in Knick coach Mike D'Antoni's up tempo system. My favorite player in this draft.
9) Toronto- Jordan Hill (F) Arizona- Toronto will think they are a getting a bookend to Chris Bosh to help Bosh with all of the grunt work. But they're getting a tentative player with a low motor. Not a Jordan Hill fan.
10) Milwaukee- Jonny Flynn (G) Syracuse- A good fit for Milwaukee. Flynn is exactly the kind of floor leader Buck Coach Scott Skiles needs running the point. Needs to improve the shooting and watch the turnovers, but he'll be a good one.
11) New Jersey- Earl Clark (F) Louisville- Clark is a very well rounded basketball player. One of the more talented players in this draft. Has been unfairly downgraded by scouts because of work ethic questions. His college coach Rick Pitino believes he has what it takes. Similar skill set to Lamar Odom. That makes Earl my second favorite player in this draft behind Lawson. He'll be a very good player on a championship contender before all is said and done.
12) Charlotte- Demar DeRozan (F/G) USC- Charlotte thinks they're getting a replacement for Raja Bell as a shutdown wing defender with tremendous athletic ability. What they're really getting is a tremendous athlete who is disinterested and selfish and will be impossible for Larry Brown to coach. This guy has bust written all over him.
13) Indiana- Gerald Henderson (G) Duke- Indiana GM Larry Bird will grab his ex teammate Gerald Henderson's son. The Pacers could use a reliable off guard and Bird knows this kid's a good citizen, which is very important in Indiana. Henderson will be a solid NBA player, but not much more.
14) Phoenix- Eric Maynor (G) Virginia Commonwealth- Maynor can serve as the heir apparent to Steve Nash. Maynor has a complete game. Good at just about everything, great at nothing. But he is a legitimate floor leader who plays wiith passion and guts.
15) Detroit- James Johnson (F) Wake Forest- This guy is billed as being able to play both small forward and power forward. My guess is that he won't play either that well. He's suppossedly a black belt in jujitsu, which will onlly draw him flagrant fouls in the NBA. This pick will not end up at the top of Piston GM Joe Dumars' resume when he ends up looking for a new job.
16) Chicago- Tyler Hansbrough (F) North Carolina- The Bulls are not all that pleased with their 2006 first rounder Tyrus Thomas at power forward. Hansbrough is a hard working physical forward who can shoot. Sort of the anti Tyrus Thomas, who is athletic, but immature. The perfect player to either push Thomas or replace him
17) Philadelphia- Brandon Jennings (G)- Italy- Jennings played professionally in Italy this past season. I'm using the word played loosely because from what in understand, all he did was sit on the bench last season and complain about it. The Sixers figure he can replace free agent point guard Andre Miller, but they might as well be throwing their money on black or red at the roulette table.
18) Minnesota- B.J. Mullens (C) Ohio St.- Minnesota will figure that Mullens can be a project with lots of upside. I think he's the dictionary definition of a bust who never should have left college this early.
19) Atlanta- Jeff Teague (G) Wake Forest- Not a big fan of Teague's game. Clearly should be staying in school at least another year. But the Hawks need a replacement for free agent point guard Mike Bibby. Teague may develop eventually, but will certainly disappoint in the short term.
20) Utah- DeJuan Blair (F) Pittsburgh- I definitely have concerns about Blair, but if he lands in
Utah, he'll have landed in the right place. Utah's coach Jerry Sloan has had outstanding success with undersized, but strong power forwards Carlos Boozer and Paul Milsapp. And with all indications appearing that Boozer will opt out of his contract and explore free agency and with Milsapp entering restricted free agency, who better to bring in than an undersized strong power forward in DeJuan Blair. Blair stock has dropped recently due concerns about his knees. And if he drops to 20, the Jazz will bethrilled and rightfully so. He won't be a star, but he will be a significant contributor in the right situation.
21) New Orleans- Nick Calathes (G) Florida- New Orleans would rather not pay a rookie contract this year, so they'll select Calathes because he signed a contract to play in Greece, so they can wait a few years to bring him in and start paying him. Calathes' game is probably more suited to Europe anyway.
22) Dallas- Sam Young (F/G) Pittsburgh- Young is a very effective wing player who plays strong, defends well, and can shoot. He goes this low because he's ancient by draft standards at 24. Not a lot of upside for him from where he is now. But the good news is that he's pretty damn good now. He may just end up the reason the Mavericks are able to move Josh Howard, which just might net them Chris Bosh.
23) Sacramento- Austin Daye (F) Gonzaga- Sacramento may go European here instead to save a contract, but I think they'll like Daye a lot here. Personally, I don't think Daye deserves to go in the first round. Even though he's 6'11". he's softer than the stay puff marshmallow man. He's only 190 pounds and his only discernible skill is his ability to shoot. Guys like this get thrown around in the NBA like rag dolls.
24) Portland- Darren Collison- (G) UCLA- Certain things about the draft make me scratch my head. Jrue Holiday spent the year last year as Collison's backup, rightfully so. Yet Holiday will go in the lottery and Collison will be lucky to go in the first round because Holiday is a workout star. If Portland selects Collison, they'll be getting a pass first point guard who is a tenacious defender. Collison may be a little small, but he makes up for it with a great motor. He's a perfect fit for the Trailblazers.
25) Oklahoma City- Terrence Williams (G/F) Louisville- If the Thunder get Williams here, they'll have gotten good value. A good athlete and a smart player. He is just not that great an offensive player. he handles the ball decently, but does not have a nose for the basket. He'll defend well on the NBA level. Many scouts have him as a top 10 pick, but you can do better in this draft. He'll be a contributor wherever he goes. Thats his ceiling, but at this stage of the draft thats a good thing.
26) Chicago- Wayne Ellington (G) North Carolina- This would be a great value pick for the Bulls. With it looking likely that they lose Ben Gordon to free agency ( a blessing by the way) Ellington will fill that role and be a much better complement to star point guard Derrick Rose. Gordon dominates the ball way too much. If the Bulls add Hansbrough and Ellington with losing Gordon to free agency, they will be a much better team this year and possibly contend in the East. Both would be excellent chemistry picks.
27) Memphis- Omri Casspi (F) Israel- Everything I've seen on this guy I loved. He didn't want to work out for many teams because in his eyes, the workouts are not reflective of the kind of player he is. And although he changed his mind (as he should have) and blew teams away with his workout , the man has a point. He's a very athletic and energetic forward. He would provide Memphis with some much needed grit. In the words of Judge Smails from Caddyshack, "the world needs ditch diggers too!!" Casspi is a ditch digger.
28) Minnesota- Patrick Mills (G) St. Mary's- Mills is a shoot first point guard and lord knows Minnesota has plenty of them. But Mills just might be the best point guard on their roster if they draft him. Questionable shot selection and lots of turnovers work against Mills. But he might just give them a better chance to win than current point guards Randy Foye and (gulp) Sebastian Telfair.
29) L.A. Lakers- Chase Budinger (G/F) Arizona- If Budinger is here when the Lakers pick, and I think he will be, he will be just the excuse they need to part ways with the psychotic Sasha Vujacic. Watching Vujacic hug his teammates while their nostrils flair at the smell has become downright uncomfortable. Budinger can play the same role as a shooter off the bench, which is really Budinger's only future in the league.
30) Cleveland- Danny Green (F) North Carolina- If I'm correct, the national champion Tar Heels will have placed 4 players in the first round. Green is an excellent shooter and an excellent defender. He doesn't create a lot offensively, but he shoots it real well, and is a very athletic and willing defender. Green is exactly the type of player the Cavaliers were missing in their loss to the Magic in the Eastern Conference finals. Green is an excellent wing complement to LeBron James.
There you have it. I'll be back before the draft with rumors. Giddyap. Y'all be cool.
Before I convey a few random thoughts about the quick work the Lakers made of the Magic, I'd like to respond to the slew of e-mail that I've received from some readers who wanted to take me to task about my merciless assault on Laker point guard Derek Fisher in this space. Here is my response: Fisher's still washed up.
I know that Fisher hit two very big three pointers in the Lakers game 4 overtime win. The first one tied the game with 4 seconds left in regulation and the second one gave the Lakers a 3 point lead in the overtime, a lead the Lakers would never relinquish. But that still doesn't change the fact that Fisher is athletically inferior to every guard he plays against. And who says that Shannon Brown could not have hit big threes if given the chance. I would never have played Fisher as much as Jackson in every series and I stand by it. But then again, Phil Jackson has 10 championship rings and all I have are a couple of wedding rings, so there you go.
Speaking of Philosophical Phil, I think this was his 2nd best coaching job ever. His best was the 1994 Bulls when he had a 55 win season without Michael Jordan and was a bad Hue Hollins whistle from being in the NBA finals. And his 3rd best was the Bulls 72 win season in 1996 that culminated in a title. His finest coaching moment of the series was with 10 seconds left in regulation of game 2, he was able to put a defense on the floor that had the Magic's two shot opportunities to win the game attempted by Orlando's 5th option, Courtney Lee.
A quick note on Kobe Bryant. He changed his game just enough to put the Lakers over the top. Make no mistake. Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol didn't get any better this year. Kobe just played with them more allowing their vast talent to matter for the Lakers. Kobe even starting regularly feeding Gasol in the post down the stretch of games. Don't get me wrong. Kobe isn't exactly the most humble guy in the world. But he played enough team basketball to lead his team to a title and he deserves a lot of credit for that. Now that I just threw up in my mouth, its onto my mock draft.
Most scouts and NBA executives are calling this draft the worst in years. I wholeheartedly disagree. If you need a point guard, this draft is a good place to find one. This draft may be lacking star power, but there's a lot of players in this draft who will be contributors. Too many personnel executives shoot for the moon in the draft. The same chance exists to unearth a star in drafting for contributors than drafting to find the next Michael Jordan (remember Harold "Baby Jordan" Miner). With that in mind, lets begin.
1) LA Clippers- Blake Griffin (F) Oklahoma- The closest thing there is to a sure thing in this draft. The way I see it it is the only thing that can ruin him is that Creepy Clipper Karma. And that has powers we beyond anything that can be analyzed.
2) Memphis- Ricky Rubio (G) Spain- I believe Memphis GM Chris Wallace when he says they are very interested in Rubio and will not let threats from Rubio's camp that Rubio won't come to Memphis prevent Wallace from drafting him. Rubio needs to be the highest pick he can to make enough money to buy himself out of his Spanish league contract. If Memphis selects him, Rubio will come. He'll have fellow Spanish Olympic teammate Marc Gasol waiting for him. Rubio will be a good NBA point guard. He can play NBA level defense at a very young age. He guarded Chris Paul and Deron Williams very effectively in the Olympic gold medal game. Needs to watch his turnovers
3) Oklahoma City- Hasheem Thabeet (C) Connecticut- Thabeet is in the Dikembe Mutombo mold. Very good shot blocker. Very good rebounder. He's adequate offensively. He has great size at 7'3". But needs to add toughness. Got pushed around a lot in Big East play for a guy this size. If the Tin Man finds his heart, Oklahoma City's got themselves a real good center. For the record, I do think Thabeet toughens up and becomes a good center.
4) Sacramento- Stephen Curry (G) Davidson- Curry is an excellent shooter who can fill it up quick. But I question his ability to be a point guard and he's way too skinny to be an effective wing player. Has questionable shot selection for a guy who suppossedly has a "high basketball IQ". I wouldn't take him this early, but a lot of teams are enamored with him. Probably ends up as a good bench player.
5) Washington- Tyreke Evans (G) Memphis- Evans is a great fit for the Wizards. Handles the ball enough to allow Gilbert Arenas to play some on the wing as a scoring guard. And Evans is a tremendous athlete who should evolve into a decent wing defender. He could play a big role in the Wizards turning it around fast.
6) Minnesota- James Harden (G) Arizona St.- Minnesota's back court is a mess. Harden will help stabilize it. Not the best athlete, but a good scorer and a physically tough player for 6"5". Could certainly be part of the long term solution on Minnesota.
7) Golden St.- Jrue Holiday (G) UCLA- Warrior coach Don Nelson (who's back in charge after inserting a ginsu into Chris Mullin's delicate back) will not be able to resist an athlete like Holiday. Holiday's workouts have suppossedly been off the charts. Scouts are drooling over him ignoring the fact that he wasn't all that good a player for UCLA last year. He could develop, but a coin toss is more certain.
8) New York- Ty Lawson (G) North Carolina- Many scouts think this is early for Lawson and maybe a little wishful thinking by this Knick fan, but I think Lawson is going to be one of the top 3 point guards in the league. He's fast, strong, and unselfish. He's a decent shooter, an agressive and willing defender, and he doesn't turn the ball over much. Scouts are concerned about his height and his work ethic. Last time I checked, the best point guard in the league Chris Paul is 5"11" and strong as an ox, just like Lawson. Thats right, I went there. Lawson was the most important player for the champion Tar Heels and played the NCAA tournament with a very bad toe. A great fit in Knick coach Mike D'Antoni's up tempo system. My favorite player in this draft.
9) Toronto- Jordan Hill (F) Arizona- Toronto will think they are a getting a bookend to Chris Bosh to help Bosh with all of the grunt work. But they're getting a tentative player with a low motor. Not a Jordan Hill fan.
10) Milwaukee- Jonny Flynn (G) Syracuse- A good fit for Milwaukee. Flynn is exactly the kind of floor leader Buck Coach Scott Skiles needs running the point. Needs to improve the shooting and watch the turnovers, but he'll be a good one.
11) New Jersey- Earl Clark (F) Louisville- Clark is a very well rounded basketball player. One of the more talented players in this draft. Has been unfairly downgraded by scouts because of work ethic questions. His college coach Rick Pitino believes he has what it takes. Similar skill set to Lamar Odom. That makes Earl my second favorite player in this draft behind Lawson. He'll be a very good player on a championship contender before all is said and done.
12) Charlotte- Demar DeRozan (F/G) USC- Charlotte thinks they're getting a replacement for Raja Bell as a shutdown wing defender with tremendous athletic ability. What they're really getting is a tremendous athlete who is disinterested and selfish and will be impossible for Larry Brown to coach. This guy has bust written all over him.
13) Indiana- Gerald Henderson (G) Duke- Indiana GM Larry Bird will grab his ex teammate Gerald Henderson's son. The Pacers could use a reliable off guard and Bird knows this kid's a good citizen, which is very important in Indiana. Henderson will be a solid NBA player, but not much more.
14) Phoenix- Eric Maynor (G) Virginia Commonwealth- Maynor can serve as the heir apparent to Steve Nash. Maynor has a complete game. Good at just about everything, great at nothing. But he is a legitimate floor leader who plays wiith passion and guts.
15) Detroit- James Johnson (F) Wake Forest- This guy is billed as being able to play both small forward and power forward. My guess is that he won't play either that well. He's suppossedly a black belt in jujitsu, which will onlly draw him flagrant fouls in the NBA. This pick will not end up at the top of Piston GM Joe Dumars' resume when he ends up looking for a new job.
16) Chicago- Tyler Hansbrough (F) North Carolina- The Bulls are not all that pleased with their 2006 first rounder Tyrus Thomas at power forward. Hansbrough is a hard working physical forward who can shoot. Sort of the anti Tyrus Thomas, who is athletic, but immature. The perfect player to either push Thomas or replace him
17) Philadelphia- Brandon Jennings (G)- Italy- Jennings played professionally in Italy this past season. I'm using the word played loosely because from what in understand, all he did was sit on the bench last season and complain about it. The Sixers figure he can replace free agent point guard Andre Miller, but they might as well be throwing their money on black or red at the roulette table.
18) Minnesota- B.J. Mullens (C) Ohio St.- Minnesota will figure that Mullens can be a project with lots of upside. I think he's the dictionary definition of a bust who never should have left college this early.
19) Atlanta- Jeff Teague (G) Wake Forest- Not a big fan of Teague's game. Clearly should be staying in school at least another year. But the Hawks need a replacement for free agent point guard Mike Bibby. Teague may develop eventually, but will certainly disappoint in the short term.
20) Utah- DeJuan Blair (F) Pittsburgh- I definitely have concerns about Blair, but if he lands in
Utah, he'll have landed in the right place. Utah's coach Jerry Sloan has had outstanding success with undersized, but strong power forwards Carlos Boozer and Paul Milsapp. And with all indications appearing that Boozer will opt out of his contract and explore free agency and with Milsapp entering restricted free agency, who better to bring in than an undersized strong power forward in DeJuan Blair. Blair stock has dropped recently due concerns about his knees. And if he drops to 20, the Jazz will bethrilled and rightfully so. He won't be a star, but he will be a significant contributor in the right situation.
21) New Orleans- Nick Calathes (G) Florida- New Orleans would rather not pay a rookie contract this year, so they'll select Calathes because he signed a contract to play in Greece, so they can wait a few years to bring him in and start paying him. Calathes' game is probably more suited to Europe anyway.
22) Dallas- Sam Young (F/G) Pittsburgh- Young is a very effective wing player who plays strong, defends well, and can shoot. He goes this low because he's ancient by draft standards at 24. Not a lot of upside for him from where he is now. But the good news is that he's pretty damn good now. He may just end up the reason the Mavericks are able to move Josh Howard, which just might net them Chris Bosh.
23) Sacramento- Austin Daye (F) Gonzaga- Sacramento may go European here instead to save a contract, but I think they'll like Daye a lot here. Personally, I don't think Daye deserves to go in the first round. Even though he's 6'11". he's softer than the stay puff marshmallow man. He's only 190 pounds and his only discernible skill is his ability to shoot. Guys like this get thrown around in the NBA like rag dolls.
24) Portland- Darren Collison- (G) UCLA- Certain things about the draft make me scratch my head. Jrue Holiday spent the year last year as Collison's backup, rightfully so. Yet Holiday will go in the lottery and Collison will be lucky to go in the first round because Holiday is a workout star. If Portland selects Collison, they'll be getting a pass first point guard who is a tenacious defender. Collison may be a little small, but he makes up for it with a great motor. He's a perfect fit for the Trailblazers.
25) Oklahoma City- Terrence Williams (G/F) Louisville- If the Thunder get Williams here, they'll have gotten good value. A good athlete and a smart player. He is just not that great an offensive player. he handles the ball decently, but does not have a nose for the basket. He'll defend well on the NBA level. Many scouts have him as a top 10 pick, but you can do better in this draft. He'll be a contributor wherever he goes. Thats his ceiling, but at this stage of the draft thats a good thing.
26) Chicago- Wayne Ellington (G) North Carolina- This would be a great value pick for the Bulls. With it looking likely that they lose Ben Gordon to free agency ( a blessing by the way) Ellington will fill that role and be a much better complement to star point guard Derrick Rose. Gordon dominates the ball way too much. If the Bulls add Hansbrough and Ellington with losing Gordon to free agency, they will be a much better team this year and possibly contend in the East. Both would be excellent chemistry picks.
27) Memphis- Omri Casspi (F) Israel- Everything I've seen on this guy I loved. He didn't want to work out for many teams because in his eyes, the workouts are not reflective of the kind of player he is. And although he changed his mind (as he should have) and blew teams away with his workout , the man has a point. He's a very athletic and energetic forward. He would provide Memphis with some much needed grit. In the words of Judge Smails from Caddyshack, "the world needs ditch diggers too!!" Casspi is a ditch digger.
28) Minnesota- Patrick Mills (G) St. Mary's- Mills is a shoot first point guard and lord knows Minnesota has plenty of them. But Mills just might be the best point guard on their roster if they draft him. Questionable shot selection and lots of turnovers work against Mills. But he might just give them a better chance to win than current point guards Randy Foye and (gulp) Sebastian Telfair.
29) L.A. Lakers- Chase Budinger (G/F) Arizona- If Budinger is here when the Lakers pick, and I think he will be, he will be just the excuse they need to part ways with the psychotic Sasha Vujacic. Watching Vujacic hug his teammates while their nostrils flair at the smell has become downright uncomfortable. Budinger can play the same role as a shooter off the bench, which is really Budinger's only future in the league.
30) Cleveland- Danny Green (F) North Carolina- If I'm correct, the national champion Tar Heels will have placed 4 players in the first round. Green is an excellent shooter and an excellent defender. He doesn't create a lot offensively, but he shoots it real well, and is a very athletic and willing defender. Green is exactly the type of player the Cavaliers were missing in their loss to the Magic in the Eastern Conference finals. Green is an excellent wing complement to LeBron James.
There you have it. I'll be back before the draft with rumors. Giddyap. Y'all be cool.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
As the finals draw upon us, this writer's day of reckoning has come. On April 16th, I predicted that the Lakers would not reach the NBA finals. Kobe, Pau, Lamar and Philosophical Phil have made me eat my words once again. So just for the fun of it, I'll use a top ten list to address exactly where I went wrong.
Top Ten Reasons the Lakers made me look like a fool for predicting they would lose.....
10) Trevor Ariza- Once Isiah Thomas' failed pet project with the Knicks, Ariza has developed a jump shot and some physical toughness to go along with his great athletic ability. In the Denver series, he did to Carmelo Anthony what Shane Battier did to Kobe in the Houston series and what Mickael Pietrus did to LeBron James in the Cleveland-Orlando series. He made Anthony work for everything he got, which wore Anthony down later in the series.
9) Pau Gasol- Once Yao Ming got injured in the Houston series, Gasol completely took over for the Lakers inside. And when the Denver big men took stupid fouls, Gasol made them pay by being aggressive and compounding the foul trouble. For a player who is so often seen on national television, he is immensely underappreciated for what he contributes to the Lakers success.
8) A gross lack of discipline by the Denver big men- Denver's three big men, Nene, Chris "Birdman" Andersen and Kenyon Martin were no match for Andrew Bynum. And there were too many of them for Gasol to handle. Thje only thing that could trip them up was committing too many stupid fouls. Which is exactly what they did, Nene in particular. Denver had a big advantage up front but a lack of discipline nullified it. Just one of a stunning array of coaching failings by George "the Animal " Karl.
7) Chauncey Billups atrocious shot selection- There was a point in the third quarter oof Game 5 as the series was slipping away from Denver when Billups fired one of his patented off the dribble threes before he ever passed to a teammate with 20 seconds left on the shot clock as the ball bounced off the iron leading to a transition basket for the Lakers. ABC color commentator Mark Jackson referred to this particular shot as "an Allen Iverson three." And Jackson was right on. Billups inability to exploit the washed up Derek Fisher made an enormous difference in this series. If Billups is not getting into the paint in the half court, the Nuggets might as well have had Iverson.
6) Lamar Odom- In the first four games of the Denver series, Odom looked like a shadow of himself. No one will really know how much his back hurt from the fall he took in the Houston series. Although some blog writing quack of a physician blamed his inconsistency of his candy addicition. Hey Doc, take a look at Odom's numbers the 2nd half of the season with Bynum out. If thats your version of inconsistent, I say we get Lamar on a gummy bear IV, but I digress. Odom dominated Kenyon Martin in games 5 and 6. He seemed to heal up and get his legs back. I've read in several different outlets this week that Odom may be the most valuable Laker, and of course I agree because the Candy Man is my man crush.....
5) Kenyon Martin's inability to hit an open shot- At several key points in the 2nd half of game 5, the Denver offense generated wide open makable looks in Martin's hands. And Kenyon couldn't hit a bull in the backside with a bass fiddle. Maybe this offseason, Kenyon spends less time in the tattoo parlor and more time in the gym practicing jump shots.
4) Phil Jackson's management of the point guard mismatch- As I stated earlier, Lakers starting point guard, the washed up Derek Fisher, was completely overmatched athletically. But somehow, some way, Philosophical Phil found a way to get his best Billups match up, Shannon Brown, on the court at key times, (3rd and 4th quarter of Game 5)while still having the washed up Fisher start and finish every game. The coach not-so-affectionately referred to by Jeff Van Gundy as Big Chief Triangle, has stayed loyal to Fisher despite an obvious erosion of Fisher's skills. But, in this series, he did not let that loyalty blind him to what needed to be done, i.e get Brown on the court against Billups.
3) One of the dumber coaching adjustments ever by George "the Animal" Karl- Denver had good defensive success against the Lakers through the first four games of the series. Sure Kobe was getting his, but the defensive potpourri of J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony, and Dahntay Jones were making him work for everything. And more importantly, Gasol and Odom were being held in check. As we learned in the Cleveland -Orlando series, no one player can win a game on his own. Denver was going down the right road. Then George the Animal inexpicably decided to start doubling Kobe Bryant. Bryant started passing out of double teams and everyone got easy shots. It got so bad for Denver in game 6, that the Nuggets just flat out quit on rotating over to cover open men. Hence, the game was a blowout. Kobe could not have won the series himself. It would have been much smarter for George the Animal to let him try. The good news for Karl is that Denver got eliminated in time for him to audition for "The Biggest Loser".
2) Two of the great team efforts I've seen in recent playoff history- My biggest criticism of the Lakers has always been Kobe's selfishness. As soon as Denver started doubling Kobe, he started passing out of double teams. And it became immediately infectious for the Lakers. Gasol, Odom, and Luke Walton are great passers in their own right, but once Kobe got in on the act, the Lakers shot selection was no less than impeccable. They absolutely shredded Denver. Heck, Kobe was even passing the ball into the post to Gasol in crunch time of game 5. Kobe hasn't done that since Shaquille O'Neal was still alive. Games 5 and 6 were works of art offensively by the Lakers and very frankly, I never thought a Kobe Bryant led team could ever pass like that.....
And the number 1 reason the Lakers made me look like a fool for predicitng they would lose...
1) Yao Ming's game 3 injury in the Houston series- The main reason the Lakers won the Houston series was Pau Gasol's dominance in games 5 and 7. Bryant wasn't shut down, but was forced to play inefficiently. And when Yao was on the court, Gasol could not dominate the game inside. Yao's presence forced Gasol to the perimeter offensively and made him defend on the interior with the risk of foul trouble. Once Yao got hurt, Gasol was freed up on both ends of the floor. The low post was all his on offense and he did not have to defend the post on the other end. Yao stays healthy, things probably turn out differently. Even a team as talented as the Lakers needs to catch breaks to get here.
That was cathartic. So while I'm feeling like Diamond Dave Letterman, here's another top ten list...
Top Ten Reasons the Orlando Magic sent LeBron James' Cavaliers home for the summer....
10) Mickael Pietrus- Pietrus spent a big chunk of the series guarding the King. No one shuts down the King. But Pietrus wore him down. LeBron put up outstanding numbers and carried the Cavs on his back. But when they were on the brink of elimination in game 6, LeBron had nothing left in the tank. That was not LeBron's failing. It was Pietrus' success.
9) Rashard Lewis- Cleveland only had one player who could guard him which also happens to be their best help defender, LeBron James. Cavs coach Mike "I forgot how to slow it down" Brown defended Lewis for much of the series with Anderson Varejao. Varejao is an extremely effective post defender, but a player of Lewis' ability eats guys like Varejao for breakfast on the perimeter. Still trying to figure out why Brown never made that adjustment.
8) The lack of speed in the Cleveland backcourt- When your two guards are 6'1' and 6'3" and you're playing a running team, your guards better be able to run. But Cav guards Mo Williams and Delonte West are not fast guards and are clearly more effective in the half court.
7) The coaching of Stan Van Gundy- Besides finding every right matchup, making every right move, playing his best players when it mattered most, and having all of his players commit to the system, Stan the Man kept his guys calm and focused in coming back to win two different games after being down by 20 points in the first half. Earlier this season, the artist formerly known as Shaquille O'Neal referred to Stan the Man as the master of panic. Stan and the Magic did anything but panic and because of that they get their shot at the Lakers and basketball immortality.
6) The Cavs lack of athleticism on the wings- This may seem like a ridiculous statement considering that the greatest athlete in all the world is a wing player for the Cavs. But somehow in this series, the Cavs ended up playing most of the time with Varejao on Lewis and 6'3" Delonte West guarding 6'10" Hedo Turkoglu. Where's Larry Hughes when you need him??
5) Very little contribution from the Cavs bench- Brown employed an uneven rotation. And when Williams and West were struggling from the field, he was too slow to go to Daniel Gibson. The same Daniel Gibson that helped shoot the Cavs into the finals in 2007. He didn't use Sasha Pavlovic or Wally Szczerbiak enough and when he did use Ben Wallace, Wallace did not seem to have much mileage left on the old odometer.
4) Orlando's commitment to feeding Dwight Howard in the post- This had been my big complaint with Van Gundy throughout the playoffs. Howard was an underutilized asset inside. In all fairness to Stan the Man, Howard wasn't exactly all that interested in kicking the ball out of double teams, a black hole so to speak. But young Dwight grew up in front of our eyes. The Cavs doubled, and Howard found shooters. The Magic drained open shots. The Cavs stopped doubling Howard and Howard went for 40 in the decisive game 6. Its hard to believe that this was the same player who got suspended for a game for elbowing Samuel Dalembert and who played to a draw with Kendrick Perkins for 7 games in the Celtics series. Special credit needs to go out to Magic assistant coach, the great Patrick Ewing, who has done a tremendous job helping Howard ascend to being the top big man in the sport.
3) Terrible job of tempo control by the Cavaliers- This is a point I cannot stress enough. Its really important for a team to understand their identity. Case in point: The Orlando Magic. The Magic are a team who excels at playing up tempo basketball. They are very athletic, they shoot threes very well, and Howard gives them just enough of a half court presence that they can get away with all of the running. The Magic play this way all the time. On the other hand, the Cavaliers biggest strength is their stifling half court defense. So explain why their entire mantra all series was to, and I quote Mike Brown and LeBron James, "play fast." They played Orlando's game instead of their own and went home early because of it. The best athlete on the floor was obviously LeBron James. The next 5 best athletes in this series were all Magic players (Lewis, Howard, Pietrus, Turkoglu, and Courtney Lee). I don't care how good James is, you do not get into a running game with a team who possesses 5 out of the top 6 athletes on the two teams. If the Cavs limited Orlando's possessions and walked the ball up the court the entire series, they would have won in 7 games and Nike and Vitamin Water wouldn't look like morons for designing marketing campaigns around a Kobe-LeBron final that never materialized.
2) The Cavaliers lack of a true point guard- It becomes much more difficult to control the tempo of a game when your backcourt consists of two combo guards in West or Williams. Its like the old football saying, if you've got two starting quarterbacks, you don't really even have one. It needs to be someone's responsibility to slow down the offense. Of course that only works if the coaching staff preaches it, which leads me to....
The number one reason the Orlando Magic sent LeBron James' Cavaliers home for the summer....
1) The awful coaching job by Mike "I forgot how to slow it down" Brown- How did Brown screw up, let me count thy ways. Played the whole series at the Magic's tempo... check. Kept the lead footed Zydrunas Ilgauskas on the floor for long stretches while the tempo was fast, not allowing Ilgauskas' biggest strength to be used, his ability in the post...check. Ignoring Ilgauskas in the post so there be a small likelihood for Dwight Howard foul trouble....check. Stuck with bad matchups most of the series and didn't allow his best perimeter defender (LeBron) to guard Orlando's best perimeter player (Lewis)...check. And worst of all, he did not play a smaller, more athletic team to match up with Orlando. If he had slowed the game down, used a unit of Varejao/Ilgauskas, LeBron, Szczerbiak/Pavlovic, West, and Williams, he could have played to the Cavs' strengths while matching up with Orlando at the same time. He never forced Van Gundy's hand. One of the all time worst coaching jobs I've seen in a playoff in many many years. He makes George "the Animal Karl" look like Red Auerbach.
That was fun. With the finals right in front of us, I'm not quite ready to throw it to Paul Schaffer and the band. One more top ten list coming right at you...
Top Ten things I think you'll see in the NBA finals...
10) Mickael Pietrus will make Kobe work for everything he gets. Pietrus will resemble Shane Battier's job on Kobe more than he will J.R. Smith's.
9) Andrew Bynum with his ample derriere attached to the bench. He's not quick enough to guard Howard and if he can't guard Howard, he can't help.
8) An outstanding series from the Candy Man, Lamar Odom. Odom is Rashard Lewis' worst matchup nightmare. He's an inside outside athletic threat who will make Lewis work on both ends of the floor. Odom will be Lewis' toughest matchup of the playoffs by a wide margin.
7) If Jameer Nelson plays, he'll have a significant impact. If Rafer Alston gets the lion's share of Orlando's point guard minutes, Big Chief Triangle will get away with playing Fisher for big minutes. If Nelson is on the court, Jackson will have to go to his quickest point guard, Jordan Farmar. Even with 4 months of rust, Nelson's speed is a matchup nightmare for L.A.
6) Dwight Howard will keep the Laker big men fighting foul trouble. If he puts Bynum on the bench, no worries. If he puts Gasol on the bench, the Lakers will have issues.
5) Phil Jackson will appeal to the referees through the media for more calls. As we say in the Jewish religion on the holiday of Passover, why should today be different than any other day?
4) ABC color commentator Jeff Van Gundy will be announcing games that his big brother will be coaching. Look for Jeff to be more loyal to his brother than to the network or the fans. And look for several hypocrites.. I mean sportswriters, to call him out for it. Lets all agree that we all would handle it the way Jeff is going to and enjoy a big dose of the Van Gundys in the finals.
3) Trevor Ariza will play a big role for the Lakers in a positive way. After guarding Carmelo Anthony, handling Hedo Turkoglu should not be an issue. And his athleticism and ability to hit threes will be big for the Lakers when they have to run with the Magic. I would guess that the Magic may want to have that atrocious Ariza for Maurice Evans and Brian Cook trade back.
2) The Lakers will continue to keep the ball moving offensively. It appears that Kobe has come to trust his guys enough to know he can't win it alone...and he won't be able to with Pietrus on him....
And the number 1 thing I think you'll see in the finals is......
1) The Lakers will win an epic final in 7. As tough as the Lakers will have it trying to guard Howard and Nelson, the Lakers are the only team that the Magic will have faced in this playoff who can limit Lewis and Turkoglu. And if the Lakers are having trouble playing an uptempo game, we can count on Big Chief Triangle to slow it down. One thing about Philosophical Phil is that he won't pull a Mike Brown and coach an entire series with two hands wrapped around his neck.
Back later in the week with a few finals thoughts and a mock draft. Giddyap. Y'all be cool.
Top Ten Reasons the Lakers made me look like a fool for predicting they would lose.....
10) Trevor Ariza- Once Isiah Thomas' failed pet project with the Knicks, Ariza has developed a jump shot and some physical toughness to go along with his great athletic ability. In the Denver series, he did to Carmelo Anthony what Shane Battier did to Kobe in the Houston series and what Mickael Pietrus did to LeBron James in the Cleveland-Orlando series. He made Anthony work for everything he got, which wore Anthony down later in the series.
9) Pau Gasol- Once Yao Ming got injured in the Houston series, Gasol completely took over for the Lakers inside. And when the Denver big men took stupid fouls, Gasol made them pay by being aggressive and compounding the foul trouble. For a player who is so often seen on national television, he is immensely underappreciated for what he contributes to the Lakers success.
8) A gross lack of discipline by the Denver big men- Denver's three big men, Nene, Chris "Birdman" Andersen and Kenyon Martin were no match for Andrew Bynum. And there were too many of them for Gasol to handle. Thje only thing that could trip them up was committing too many stupid fouls. Which is exactly what they did, Nene in particular. Denver had a big advantage up front but a lack of discipline nullified it. Just one of a stunning array of coaching failings by George "the Animal " Karl.
7) Chauncey Billups atrocious shot selection- There was a point in the third quarter oof Game 5 as the series was slipping away from Denver when Billups fired one of his patented off the dribble threes before he ever passed to a teammate with 20 seconds left on the shot clock as the ball bounced off the iron leading to a transition basket for the Lakers. ABC color commentator Mark Jackson referred to this particular shot as "an Allen Iverson three." And Jackson was right on. Billups inability to exploit the washed up Derek Fisher made an enormous difference in this series. If Billups is not getting into the paint in the half court, the Nuggets might as well have had Iverson.
6) Lamar Odom- In the first four games of the Denver series, Odom looked like a shadow of himself. No one will really know how much his back hurt from the fall he took in the Houston series. Although some blog writing quack of a physician blamed his inconsistency of his candy addicition. Hey Doc, take a look at Odom's numbers the 2nd half of the season with Bynum out. If thats your version of inconsistent, I say we get Lamar on a gummy bear IV, but I digress. Odom dominated Kenyon Martin in games 5 and 6. He seemed to heal up and get his legs back. I've read in several different outlets this week that Odom may be the most valuable Laker, and of course I agree because the Candy Man is my man crush.....
5) Kenyon Martin's inability to hit an open shot- At several key points in the 2nd half of game 5, the Denver offense generated wide open makable looks in Martin's hands. And Kenyon couldn't hit a bull in the backside with a bass fiddle. Maybe this offseason, Kenyon spends less time in the tattoo parlor and more time in the gym practicing jump shots.
4) Phil Jackson's management of the point guard mismatch- As I stated earlier, Lakers starting point guard, the washed up Derek Fisher, was completely overmatched athletically. But somehow, some way, Philosophical Phil found a way to get his best Billups match up, Shannon Brown, on the court at key times, (3rd and 4th quarter of Game 5)while still having the washed up Fisher start and finish every game. The coach not-so-affectionately referred to by Jeff Van Gundy as Big Chief Triangle, has stayed loyal to Fisher despite an obvious erosion of Fisher's skills. But, in this series, he did not let that loyalty blind him to what needed to be done, i.e get Brown on the court against Billups.
3) One of the dumber coaching adjustments ever by George "the Animal" Karl- Denver had good defensive success against the Lakers through the first four games of the series. Sure Kobe was getting his, but the defensive potpourri of J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony, and Dahntay Jones were making him work for everything. And more importantly, Gasol and Odom were being held in check. As we learned in the Cleveland -Orlando series, no one player can win a game on his own. Denver was going down the right road. Then George the Animal inexpicably decided to start doubling Kobe Bryant. Bryant started passing out of double teams and everyone got easy shots. It got so bad for Denver in game 6, that the Nuggets just flat out quit on rotating over to cover open men. Hence, the game was a blowout. Kobe could not have won the series himself. It would have been much smarter for George the Animal to let him try. The good news for Karl is that Denver got eliminated in time for him to audition for "The Biggest Loser".
2) Two of the great team efforts I've seen in recent playoff history- My biggest criticism of the Lakers has always been Kobe's selfishness. As soon as Denver started doubling Kobe, he started passing out of double teams. And it became immediately infectious for the Lakers. Gasol, Odom, and Luke Walton are great passers in their own right, but once Kobe got in on the act, the Lakers shot selection was no less than impeccable. They absolutely shredded Denver. Heck, Kobe was even passing the ball into the post to Gasol in crunch time of game 5. Kobe hasn't done that since Shaquille O'Neal was still alive. Games 5 and 6 were works of art offensively by the Lakers and very frankly, I never thought a Kobe Bryant led team could ever pass like that.....
And the number 1 reason the Lakers made me look like a fool for predicitng they would lose...
1) Yao Ming's game 3 injury in the Houston series- The main reason the Lakers won the Houston series was Pau Gasol's dominance in games 5 and 7. Bryant wasn't shut down, but was forced to play inefficiently. And when Yao was on the court, Gasol could not dominate the game inside. Yao's presence forced Gasol to the perimeter offensively and made him defend on the interior with the risk of foul trouble. Once Yao got hurt, Gasol was freed up on both ends of the floor. The low post was all his on offense and he did not have to defend the post on the other end. Yao stays healthy, things probably turn out differently. Even a team as talented as the Lakers needs to catch breaks to get here.
That was cathartic. So while I'm feeling like Diamond Dave Letterman, here's another top ten list...
Top Ten Reasons the Orlando Magic sent LeBron James' Cavaliers home for the summer....
10) Mickael Pietrus- Pietrus spent a big chunk of the series guarding the King. No one shuts down the King. But Pietrus wore him down. LeBron put up outstanding numbers and carried the Cavs on his back. But when they were on the brink of elimination in game 6, LeBron had nothing left in the tank. That was not LeBron's failing. It was Pietrus' success.
9) Rashard Lewis- Cleveland only had one player who could guard him which also happens to be their best help defender, LeBron James. Cavs coach Mike "I forgot how to slow it down" Brown defended Lewis for much of the series with Anderson Varejao. Varejao is an extremely effective post defender, but a player of Lewis' ability eats guys like Varejao for breakfast on the perimeter. Still trying to figure out why Brown never made that adjustment.
8) The lack of speed in the Cleveland backcourt- When your two guards are 6'1' and 6'3" and you're playing a running team, your guards better be able to run. But Cav guards Mo Williams and Delonte West are not fast guards and are clearly more effective in the half court.
7) The coaching of Stan Van Gundy- Besides finding every right matchup, making every right move, playing his best players when it mattered most, and having all of his players commit to the system, Stan the Man kept his guys calm and focused in coming back to win two different games after being down by 20 points in the first half. Earlier this season, the artist formerly known as Shaquille O'Neal referred to Stan the Man as the master of panic. Stan and the Magic did anything but panic and because of that they get their shot at the Lakers and basketball immortality.
6) The Cavs lack of athleticism on the wings- This may seem like a ridiculous statement considering that the greatest athlete in all the world is a wing player for the Cavs. But somehow in this series, the Cavs ended up playing most of the time with Varejao on Lewis and 6'3" Delonte West guarding 6'10" Hedo Turkoglu. Where's Larry Hughes when you need him??
5) Very little contribution from the Cavs bench- Brown employed an uneven rotation. And when Williams and West were struggling from the field, he was too slow to go to Daniel Gibson. The same Daniel Gibson that helped shoot the Cavs into the finals in 2007. He didn't use Sasha Pavlovic or Wally Szczerbiak enough and when he did use Ben Wallace, Wallace did not seem to have much mileage left on the old odometer.
4) Orlando's commitment to feeding Dwight Howard in the post- This had been my big complaint with Van Gundy throughout the playoffs. Howard was an underutilized asset inside. In all fairness to Stan the Man, Howard wasn't exactly all that interested in kicking the ball out of double teams, a black hole so to speak. But young Dwight grew up in front of our eyes. The Cavs doubled, and Howard found shooters. The Magic drained open shots. The Cavs stopped doubling Howard and Howard went for 40 in the decisive game 6. Its hard to believe that this was the same player who got suspended for a game for elbowing Samuel Dalembert and who played to a draw with Kendrick Perkins for 7 games in the Celtics series. Special credit needs to go out to Magic assistant coach, the great Patrick Ewing, who has done a tremendous job helping Howard ascend to being the top big man in the sport.
3) Terrible job of tempo control by the Cavaliers- This is a point I cannot stress enough. Its really important for a team to understand their identity. Case in point: The Orlando Magic. The Magic are a team who excels at playing up tempo basketball. They are very athletic, they shoot threes very well, and Howard gives them just enough of a half court presence that they can get away with all of the running. The Magic play this way all the time. On the other hand, the Cavaliers biggest strength is their stifling half court defense. So explain why their entire mantra all series was to, and I quote Mike Brown and LeBron James, "play fast." They played Orlando's game instead of their own and went home early because of it. The best athlete on the floor was obviously LeBron James. The next 5 best athletes in this series were all Magic players (Lewis, Howard, Pietrus, Turkoglu, and Courtney Lee). I don't care how good James is, you do not get into a running game with a team who possesses 5 out of the top 6 athletes on the two teams. If the Cavs limited Orlando's possessions and walked the ball up the court the entire series, they would have won in 7 games and Nike and Vitamin Water wouldn't look like morons for designing marketing campaigns around a Kobe-LeBron final that never materialized.
2) The Cavaliers lack of a true point guard- It becomes much more difficult to control the tempo of a game when your backcourt consists of two combo guards in West or Williams. Its like the old football saying, if you've got two starting quarterbacks, you don't really even have one. It needs to be someone's responsibility to slow down the offense. Of course that only works if the coaching staff preaches it, which leads me to....
The number one reason the Orlando Magic sent LeBron James' Cavaliers home for the summer....
1) The awful coaching job by Mike "I forgot how to slow it down" Brown- How did Brown screw up, let me count thy ways. Played the whole series at the Magic's tempo... check. Kept the lead footed Zydrunas Ilgauskas on the floor for long stretches while the tempo was fast, not allowing Ilgauskas' biggest strength to be used, his ability in the post...check. Ignoring Ilgauskas in the post so there be a small likelihood for Dwight Howard foul trouble....check. Stuck with bad matchups most of the series and didn't allow his best perimeter defender (LeBron) to guard Orlando's best perimeter player (Lewis)...check. And worst of all, he did not play a smaller, more athletic team to match up with Orlando. If he had slowed the game down, used a unit of Varejao/Ilgauskas, LeBron, Szczerbiak/Pavlovic, West, and Williams, he could have played to the Cavs' strengths while matching up with Orlando at the same time. He never forced Van Gundy's hand. One of the all time worst coaching jobs I've seen in a playoff in many many years. He makes George "the Animal Karl" look like Red Auerbach.
That was fun. With the finals right in front of us, I'm not quite ready to throw it to Paul Schaffer and the band. One more top ten list coming right at you...
Top Ten things I think you'll see in the NBA finals...
10) Mickael Pietrus will make Kobe work for everything he gets. Pietrus will resemble Shane Battier's job on Kobe more than he will J.R. Smith's.
9) Andrew Bynum with his ample derriere attached to the bench. He's not quick enough to guard Howard and if he can't guard Howard, he can't help.
8) An outstanding series from the Candy Man, Lamar Odom. Odom is Rashard Lewis' worst matchup nightmare. He's an inside outside athletic threat who will make Lewis work on both ends of the floor. Odom will be Lewis' toughest matchup of the playoffs by a wide margin.
7) If Jameer Nelson plays, he'll have a significant impact. If Rafer Alston gets the lion's share of Orlando's point guard minutes, Big Chief Triangle will get away with playing Fisher for big minutes. If Nelson is on the court, Jackson will have to go to his quickest point guard, Jordan Farmar. Even with 4 months of rust, Nelson's speed is a matchup nightmare for L.A.
6) Dwight Howard will keep the Laker big men fighting foul trouble. If he puts Bynum on the bench, no worries. If he puts Gasol on the bench, the Lakers will have issues.
5) Phil Jackson will appeal to the referees through the media for more calls. As we say in the Jewish religion on the holiday of Passover, why should today be different than any other day?
4) ABC color commentator Jeff Van Gundy will be announcing games that his big brother will be coaching. Look for Jeff to be more loyal to his brother than to the network or the fans. And look for several hypocrites.. I mean sportswriters, to call him out for it. Lets all agree that we all would handle it the way Jeff is going to and enjoy a big dose of the Van Gundys in the finals.
3) Trevor Ariza will play a big role for the Lakers in a positive way. After guarding Carmelo Anthony, handling Hedo Turkoglu should not be an issue. And his athleticism and ability to hit threes will be big for the Lakers when they have to run with the Magic. I would guess that the Magic may want to have that atrocious Ariza for Maurice Evans and Brian Cook trade back.
2) The Lakers will continue to keep the ball moving offensively. It appears that Kobe has come to trust his guys enough to know he can't win it alone...and he won't be able to with Pietrus on him....
And the number 1 thing I think you'll see in the finals is......
1) The Lakers will win an epic final in 7. As tough as the Lakers will have it trying to guard Howard and Nelson, the Lakers are the only team that the Magic will have faced in this playoff who can limit Lewis and Turkoglu. And if the Lakers are having trouble playing an uptempo game, we can count on Big Chief Triangle to slow it down. One thing about Philosophical Phil is that he won't pull a Mike Brown and coach an entire series with two hands wrapped around his neck.
Back later in the week with a few finals thoughts and a mock draft. Giddyap. Y'all be cool.
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