As the finals draw upon us, this writer's day of reckoning has come. On April 16th, I predicted that the Lakers would not reach the NBA finals. Kobe, Pau, Lamar and Philosophical Phil have made me eat my words once again. So just for the fun of it, I'll use a top ten list to address exactly where I went wrong.





Top Ten Reasons the Lakers made me look like a fool for predicting they would lose.....





10) Trevor Ariza- Once Isiah Thomas' failed pet project with the Knicks, Ariza has developed a jump shot and some physical toughness to go along with his great athletic ability. In the Denver series, he did to Carmelo Anthony what Shane Battier did to Kobe in the Houston series and what Mickael Pietrus did to LeBron James in the Cleveland-Orlando series. He made Anthony work for everything he got, which wore Anthony down later in the series.





9) Pau Gasol- Once Yao Ming got injured in the Houston series, Gasol completely took over for the Lakers inside. And when the Denver big men took stupid fouls, Gasol made them pay by being aggressive and compounding the foul trouble. For a player who is so often seen on national television, he is immensely underappreciated for what he contributes to the Lakers success.





8) A gross lack of discipline by the Denver big men- Denver's three big men, Nene, Chris "Birdman" Andersen and Kenyon Martin were no match for Andrew Bynum. And there were too many of them for Gasol to handle. Thje only thing that could trip them up was committing too many stupid fouls. Which is exactly what they did, Nene in particular. Denver had a big advantage up front but a lack of discipline nullified it. Just one of a stunning array of coaching failings by George "the Animal " Karl.

7) Chauncey Billups atrocious shot selection- There was a point in the third quarter oof Game 5 as the series was slipping away from Denver when Billups fired one of his patented off the dribble threes before he ever passed to a teammate with 20 seconds left on the shot clock as the ball bounced off the iron leading to a transition basket for the Lakers. ABC color commentator Mark Jackson referred to this particular shot as "an Allen Iverson three." And Jackson was right on. Billups inability to exploit the washed up Derek Fisher made an enormous difference in this series. If Billups is not getting into the paint in the half court, the Nuggets might as well have had Iverson.

6) Lamar Odom- In the first four games of the Denver series, Odom looked like a shadow of himself. No one will really know how much his back hurt from the fall he took in the Houston series. Although some blog writing quack of a physician blamed his inconsistency of his candy addicition. Hey Doc, take a look at Odom's numbers the 2nd half of the season with Bynum out. If thats your version of inconsistent, I say we get Lamar on a gummy bear IV, but I digress. Odom dominated Kenyon Martin in games 5 and 6. He seemed to heal up and get his legs back. I've read in several different outlets this week that Odom may be the most valuable Laker, and of course I agree because the Candy Man is my man crush.....

5) Kenyon Martin's inability to hit an open shot- At several key points in the 2nd half of game 5, the Denver offense generated wide open makable looks in Martin's hands. And Kenyon couldn't hit a bull in the backside with a bass fiddle. Maybe this offseason, Kenyon spends less time in the tattoo parlor and more time in the gym practicing jump shots.

4) Phil Jackson's management of the point guard mismatch- As I stated earlier, Lakers starting point guard, the washed up Derek Fisher, was completely overmatched athletically. But somehow, some way, Philosophical Phil found a way to get his best Billups match up, Shannon Brown, on the court at key times, (3rd and 4th quarter of Game 5)while still having the washed up Fisher start and finish every game. The coach not-so-affectionately referred to by Jeff Van Gundy as Big Chief Triangle, has stayed loyal to Fisher despite an obvious erosion of Fisher's skills. But, in this series, he did not let that loyalty blind him to what needed to be done, i.e get Brown on the court against Billups.

3) One of the dumber coaching adjustments ever by George "the Animal" Karl- Denver had good defensive success against the Lakers through the first four games of the series. Sure Kobe was getting his, but the defensive potpourri of J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony, and Dahntay Jones were making him work for everything. And more importantly, Gasol and Odom were being held in check. As we learned in the Cleveland -Orlando series, no one player can win a game on his own. Denver was going down the right road. Then George the Animal inexpicably decided to start doubling Kobe Bryant. Bryant started passing out of double teams and everyone got easy shots. It got so bad for Denver in game 6, that the Nuggets just flat out quit on rotating over to cover open men. Hence, the game was a blowout. Kobe could not have won the series himself. It would have been much smarter for George the Animal to let him try. The good news for Karl is that Denver got eliminated in time for him to audition for "The Biggest Loser".

2) Two of the great team efforts I've seen in recent playoff history- My biggest criticism of the Lakers has always been Kobe's selfishness. As soon as Denver started doubling Kobe, he started passing out of double teams. And it became immediately infectious for the Lakers. Gasol, Odom, and Luke Walton are great passers in their own right, but once Kobe got in on the act, the Lakers shot selection was no less than impeccable. They absolutely shredded Denver. Heck, Kobe was even passing the ball into the post to Gasol in crunch time of game 5. Kobe hasn't done that since Shaquille O'Neal was still alive. Games 5 and 6 were works of art offensively by the Lakers and very frankly, I never thought a Kobe Bryant led team could ever pass like that.....

And the number 1 reason the Lakers made me look like a fool for predicitng they would lose...

1) Yao Ming's game 3 injury in the Houston series- The main reason the Lakers won the Houston series was Pau Gasol's dominance in games 5 and 7. Bryant wasn't shut down, but was forced to play inefficiently. And when Yao was on the court, Gasol could not dominate the game inside. Yao's presence forced Gasol to the perimeter offensively and made him defend on the interior with the risk of foul trouble. Once Yao got hurt, Gasol was freed up on both ends of the floor. The low post was all his on offense and he did not have to defend the post on the other end. Yao stays healthy, things probably turn out differently. Even a team as talented as the Lakers needs to catch breaks to get here.

That was cathartic. So while I'm feeling like Diamond Dave Letterman, here's another top ten list...

Top Ten Reasons the Orlando Magic sent LeBron James' Cavaliers home for the summer....

10) Mickael Pietrus- Pietrus spent a big chunk of the series guarding the King. No one shuts down the King. But Pietrus wore him down. LeBron put up outstanding numbers and carried the Cavs on his back. But when they were on the brink of elimination in game 6, LeBron had nothing left in the tank. That was not LeBron's failing. It was Pietrus' success.

9) Rashard Lewis- Cleveland only had one player who could guard him which also happens to be their best help defender, LeBron James. Cavs coach Mike "I forgot how to slow it down" Brown defended Lewis for much of the series with Anderson Varejao. Varejao is an extremely effective post defender, but a player of Lewis' ability eats guys like Varejao for breakfast on the perimeter. Still trying to figure out why Brown never made that adjustment.

8) The lack of speed in the Cleveland backcourt- When your two guards are 6'1' and 6'3" and you're playing a running team, your guards better be able to run. But Cav guards Mo Williams and Delonte West are not fast guards and are clearly more effective in the half court.

7) The coaching of Stan Van Gundy- Besides finding every right matchup, making every right move, playing his best players when it mattered most, and having all of his players commit to the system, Stan the Man kept his guys calm and focused in coming back to win two different games after being down by 20 points in the first half. Earlier this season, the artist formerly known as Shaquille O'Neal referred to Stan the Man as the master of panic. Stan and the Magic did anything but panic and because of that they get their shot at the Lakers and basketball immortality.

6) The Cavs lack of athleticism on the wings- This may seem like a ridiculous statement considering that the greatest athlete in all the world is a wing player for the Cavs. But somehow in this series, the Cavs ended up playing most of the time with Varejao on Lewis and 6'3" Delonte West guarding 6'10" Hedo Turkoglu. Where's Larry Hughes when you need him??

5) Very little contribution from the Cavs bench- Brown employed an uneven rotation. And when Williams and West were struggling from the field, he was too slow to go to Daniel Gibson. The same Daniel Gibson that helped shoot the Cavs into the finals in 2007. He didn't use Sasha Pavlovic or Wally Szczerbiak enough and when he did use Ben Wallace, Wallace did not seem to have much mileage left on the old odometer.

4) Orlando's commitment to feeding Dwight Howard in the post- This had been my big complaint with Van Gundy throughout the playoffs. Howard was an underutilized asset inside. In all fairness to Stan the Man, Howard wasn't exactly all that interested in kicking the ball out of double teams, a black hole so to speak. But young Dwight grew up in front of our eyes. The Cavs doubled, and Howard found shooters. The Magic drained open shots. The Cavs stopped doubling Howard and Howard went for 40 in the decisive game 6. Its hard to believe that this was the same player who got suspended for a game for elbowing Samuel Dalembert and who played to a draw with Kendrick Perkins for 7 games in the Celtics series. Special credit needs to go out to Magic assistant coach, the great Patrick Ewing, who has done a tremendous job helping Howard ascend to being the top big man in the sport.

3) Terrible job of tempo control by the Cavaliers- This is a point I cannot stress enough. Its really important for a team to understand their identity. Case in point: The Orlando Magic. The Magic are a team who excels at playing up tempo basketball. They are very athletic, they shoot threes very well, and Howard gives them just enough of a half court presence that they can get away with all of the running. The Magic play this way all the time. On the other hand, the Cavaliers biggest strength is their stifling half court defense. So explain why their entire mantra all series was to, and I quote Mike Brown and LeBron James, "play fast." They played Orlando's game instead of their own and went home early because of it. The best athlete on the floor was obviously LeBron James. The next 5 best athletes in this series were all Magic players (Lewis, Howard, Pietrus, Turkoglu, and Courtney Lee). I don't care how good James is, you do not get into a running game with a team who possesses 5 out of the top 6 athletes on the two teams. If the Cavs limited Orlando's possessions and walked the ball up the court the entire series, they would have won in 7 games and Nike and Vitamin Water wouldn't look like morons for designing marketing campaigns around a Kobe-LeBron final that never materialized.

2) The Cavaliers lack of a true point guard- It becomes much more difficult to control the tempo of a game when your backcourt consists of two combo guards in West or Williams. Its like the old football saying, if you've got two starting quarterbacks, you don't really even have one. It needs to be someone's responsibility to slow down the offense. Of course that only works if the coaching staff preaches it, which leads me to....

The number one reason the Orlando Magic sent LeBron James' Cavaliers home for the summer....

1) The awful coaching job by Mike "I forgot how to slow it down" Brown- How did Brown screw up, let me count thy ways. Played the whole series at the Magic's tempo... check. Kept the lead footed Zydrunas Ilgauskas on the floor for long stretches while the tempo was fast, not allowing Ilgauskas' biggest strength to be used, his ability in the post...check. Ignoring Ilgauskas in the post so there be a small likelihood for Dwight Howard foul trouble....check. Stuck with bad matchups most of the series and didn't allow his best perimeter defender (LeBron) to guard Orlando's best perimeter player (Lewis)...check. And worst of all, he did not play a smaller, more athletic team to match up with Orlando. If he had slowed the game down, used a unit of Varejao/Ilgauskas, LeBron, Szczerbiak/Pavlovic, West, and Williams, he could have played to the Cavs' strengths while matching up with Orlando at the same time. He never forced Van Gundy's hand. One of the all time worst coaching jobs I've seen in a playoff in many many years. He makes George "the Animal Karl" look like Red Auerbach.

That was fun. With the finals right in front of us, I'm not quite ready to throw it to Paul Schaffer and the band. One more top ten list coming right at you...

Top Ten things I think you'll see in the NBA finals...

10) Mickael Pietrus will make Kobe work for everything he gets. Pietrus will resemble Shane Battier's job on Kobe more than he will J.R. Smith's.

9) Andrew Bynum with his ample derriere attached to the bench. He's not quick enough to guard Howard and if he can't guard Howard, he can't help.

8) An outstanding series from the Candy Man, Lamar Odom. Odom is Rashard Lewis' worst matchup nightmare. He's an inside outside athletic threat who will make Lewis work on both ends of the floor. Odom will be Lewis' toughest matchup of the playoffs by a wide margin.

7) If Jameer Nelson plays, he'll have a significant impact. If Rafer Alston gets the lion's share of Orlando's point guard minutes, Big Chief Triangle will get away with playing Fisher for big minutes. If Nelson is on the court, Jackson will have to go to his quickest point guard, Jordan Farmar. Even with 4 months of rust, Nelson's speed is a matchup nightmare for L.A.

6) Dwight Howard will keep the Laker big men fighting foul trouble. If he puts Bynum on the bench, no worries. If he puts Gasol on the bench, the Lakers will have issues.

5) Phil Jackson will appeal to the referees through the media for more calls. As we say in the Jewish religion on the holiday of Passover, why should today be different than any other day?

4) ABC color commentator Jeff Van Gundy will be announcing games that his big brother will be coaching. Look for Jeff to be more loyal to his brother than to the network or the fans. And look for several hypocrites.. I mean sportswriters, to call him out for it. Lets all agree that we all would handle it the way Jeff is going to and enjoy a big dose of the Van Gundys in the finals.

3) Trevor Ariza will play a big role for the Lakers in a positive way. After guarding Carmelo Anthony, handling Hedo Turkoglu should not be an issue. And his athleticism and ability to hit threes will be big for the Lakers when they have to run with the Magic. I would guess that the Magic may want to have that atrocious Ariza for Maurice Evans and Brian Cook trade back.

2) The Lakers will continue to keep the ball moving offensively. It appears that Kobe has come to trust his guys enough to know he can't win it alone...and he won't be able to with Pietrus on him....

And the number 1 thing I think you'll see in the finals is......

1) The Lakers will win an epic final in 7. As tough as the Lakers will have it trying to guard Howard and Nelson, the Lakers are the only team that the Magic will have faced in this playoff who can limit Lewis and Turkoglu. And if the Lakers are having trouble playing an uptempo game, we can count on Big Chief Triangle to slow it down. One thing about Philosophical Phil is that he won't pull a Mike Brown and coach an entire series with two hands wrapped around his neck.

Back later in the week with a few finals thoughts and a mock draft. Giddyap. Y'all be cool.