Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Plenty of trades, plenty of draft picks with plenty to say.......











Its very difficult to not like the San Antonio Spurs acquisition of forward Richard Jefferson for nothing but salary cap fodder ( Francisco Oberto, Bruce Bowen, and Kurt Thomas) from the Milwaukee Bucks. However, I'm not sure that he's going to help as much as they think he will. When Jefferson first came into the league, he was a tenacious defender who took the ball to the basket aggressively and often. As the years have worn on, he has become more of an average defensive player and more of a perimeter shooter. The problem is that he's not a very good perimeter shooter and his shot selection is spotty at best. The Spurs have always played a team game on both ends of the floor. Jefferson may not fit in as seamlessly as they believe.





With that said, what's going on in Milwaukee? Last June they traded their 1st round pick (6th overall) Yi Jianlian to the Nets for Richard Jefferson. This June, they trade Jefferson for three guys they're going to cut. And it appears that they are going to use the money to retain point guard Ramon Sessions. This will come right on the heels of drafting point guard Brandon Jennings with their #1 pick this year. Keeping in mind that August of last year, they completed a trade for point guard Luke Ridnour. Their rebuilding plan resembles a moving target. Being a Bucks fan is worse than being one of Jon and Kate's eight.





From a basketball standpoint, the biggest non story of the offseason so far has been the Cavaliers acquisition of Shaquille O'Neal. Shaq is the biggest of the big names and will certainly make the Cavs more interesting to watch, but he's not going to cure what ailed the Cavs in their playoff loss to the Orlando Magic.



The Cavaliers had an outstanding regular season on the strength of their half court defense. They were at their best on both sides of the court playing at a slow pace. In the Orlando series, they were caught from moment one in Orlando's up and down the floor fast paced transition game. And they were not athletic enough to keep up with the Magic. Shaq is a very nice luxury to have. But if you're not going to slow the game down to feed him in the post, he becomes a very expensive statue. The Cavs under utilized their main post presence in Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Obviously Shaq, even at this stage of his career, is much better than Ilgauskas. But if he's not getting the ball, he's useless. He can't thrive in an uptempo system ( i.e the 2008-2009 Phoenix Suns). And this notion that he can help stop Dwight Howard is laughable. The best thing Shaq has in relation to Howard is the ability to create 12 Howard free throws over the course of a game. Very frankly, the Cavs 2nd round draft choice, Danny Green from North Carolina will be a lot more helpful in a series next year against the Magic than the artist formerly known as Shaquille O'Neal. And the task of keeping up with the Magic didn't get any easier with their acquisition of Vince Carter.....



Speaking of Vince Carter, this is one of those few NBA trades that every party involved actually benefits. I will preface this analysis by saying I am a big Vince Carter fan. He gets a very bad rap in this league for quitting on the Toronto Raptors in 2004. And Vince was dead wrong back then. But I believe he righted that sin by being not only a good soldier on a somewhat hopeless New Jersey Net team last season, but an enthusiastic leader who set a very professional example for a very young team. He played unselfish basketball and took an interest in the improvement of the younger players. He deserves a shot at a title a lot more than the coach killing, hypocritical Jason Kidd, who quit on Vince's Nets, but I digress.



I love this trade for Orlando. They get Carter and Ryan Anderson and gave up cap fodder in Tony Battie and Rafer Alston and a promising young player in Courtney Lee. This makes the Magic more athletic and more importantly gives them leverage against a likely Hedo Turkoglu defection. Now if Turkoglu wants to return, it will be On Orlando's terms. Orlando GM Otis Smith derserves a lot of credit for pulling the trigger on this deal.



I like this trade for the Nets as well. Lee is unique in the respect that he's 21 years old with some significant playoff experience under his belt. He is a tough, athletic kid who works hard and doesn't intimidate easily. He can shoot it a little bit and seems to understand NBA defense. He also handles the ball well, which makes him a good backcourt partner to Devin Harris. The Nets also save a lot of money in this deal and open up a lot of cap space for the 2010 free agent class. And with a young nucleus of Lee, Harris, and center Brook Lopez, the Nets have assembled an attractive supporting cast to the array of free agent superstars anticipated to be available next year. Good work by Nets president Rod Thorn.

The other deal from draft week was the Washington Wizards trading away the fifth pick of the first round and three bad contracts (Etan Thomas, Darius Songalia, and Oleksiy Pecherov) to the Minnesota Timberwolves for guards Randy foye and Mike Miller. Before I tell you how much I despise this trade for Washington, let me first tell you that I have always had a great amount of respect for Washington general manager Ernie Grunfeld. He's always been very creative and resourceful when building a team, the Wizards included. But Ernie has made some decisions in the past 9 months that qualify as head scratchers. He fired a very good coach in Eddie Jordan less than 1 month into the season with a 1-10 record on a team besieged by injuries. He hired long time personnel executive Ed Tapscott as interim coach. And no, Knick fans that was not a gas bubble you just had, it was your muscle memory of the gut punch you felt that fateful 1999 draft night when Tapscott selected the immortal Frederic Weis with the 15th pick of the first round leaving Ron Artest on the board. Tapscott lead the Wizards to an 18-53 record to finish out the season. Eddie Jordan was out of work less than a season as he was hired to coach the Philadelphia 76ers not long after the season. Needless to say, I found Jordan's firing and Tapscott's subsequest hiring more than a little curious.

Which brings us to the Foye/Miller trade. When Grunfeld made this deal it made it very clear that this was a trade with the short term in mind. Some so called experts have even predicted that this trade would catapult the Wizards into the elite of the Eastern Conference. I'm not sipping from that Kool Aid jug. The Wizards were a 19 win team last year. I understand that Gilbert Arenas was out all year, but guys like Foye and Miller don't make you an elite contender. They help you get the #8 seed in the playoffs and a quick ticket home from Cleveland/Orlando/Boston, which is NBA no man's land. Either you're competing for a title or you're rebuilding. When you get stuck in between, you become the Knicks from the last decade. No matter what Grunfeld thought of this draft, the Wizards are best served with a young player contributing as he develops. To take it a step further, this trade wreaks of Grunfeld being concerned for his job and looking for a quick turnaround. Those turnarounds don't happen unless you can acquire Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the same offseason while they both have plenty left in the tank.


There was plenty I liked about the draft and plenty, well.....not so much.

I liked what Minnestoa GM David Kahn did in drafting point guards Ricky Rubio and Johnny Flynn with the #5 and #6 picks. He increased his odds greatly to have a solid point guard for the next 10 years, and if ends up with two solid point guards, he's got a very tradable commodity. He kept a good eye on the long term picture for a team that won't be competing for a title in the next 3 years.

I liked Sacramento's selection of Tyreke Evans with the #4 pick. The Kings need good athletes and Evans is an exceptional one.

I did not like the Knicks selection of Jordan Hill at #8. He seems destined for a very pedestrian career. And why, in a point guard heavy draft, with a fast tempo system, would Knick GM Donnie Walsh pass on a fast break point guard like Ty Lawson. Even if Walsh didn't like Lawson (by the way, I LOVE Lawson), take a shot on someone like Brandon Jennings who at least is suppossed to have the skill set to run the system. I don't think Walsh has this ship moving in the right direction.

I liked Indiana's selection of Tyler Hansbrough with the #13 pick. Hansbrough may not end up being a star, but he will be a solid contributor for years to come.

I did not like Detroit's selection of Austin Daye with the #15 pick. Daye's upside is that he turns out to be Tayshaun Prince, and as effective as Prince is, I don't think the Pistons need two of him. In addition, I think Daye is a bust waiting to happen. He does not seem cut out to be physical enough to be any kind of NBA defender.

As you probably would figure, I predictably love the Denver trade for the #18 pick and Ty Lawson. The prevailing thought is that Lawson will serve as Chauncey Billups backup, but I think Lawson will be much more. I think that Denver coach George "the Animal" Karl will use Lawson and Billups together a whole bunch. Billups is strong enough to cover wing players. And Billups tendency to channel his inner Iverson and fire bad threes off the dribble will be mitigated with him playing off the ball. It also helps the Nuggets salary cap wise because playing Lawson and Billups together will not make it necessary to overpay last year's starting two guard Dahntay Jones. They can now devote that money to resigning the legendary Chris "Birdman" Anderson.

I like Utah's pick of Virginia Commonwealth guard Eric Maynor at #20. Similar philosophy to what Denver did. Because Utah point guard Deron Williams has good size, he can defend the two guards. And Maynor has good scoring ability off the dribble and is more than skilled enough to be an effective wing player offensively as well as an efficient point guard.

I also like Sacramento's pick at #23, Israeli forward Omir Casspi. He's an energetic, athletic 6'9" forward who doesn't intimidate easily and has confidence in his ability. The Kings had a very good draft.

I did not like the Cavs selection of Christian Eyenga, a forward from the Congo, with the last pick of the first round. The Cavs need wing athletes, preferably one who can shoot. When your team is in a position to compete for a title, making first round picks to stash over in Europe to develop for a few years defeats the purpose. They got very lucky that Danny Green fell to them in the 2nd round at #46. Green is an athletic wing who can shoot and defend who hung around far too long in this draft.

Speaking if guys who hung around far too long, I love the San Antonio Spurs selection of Pittsburgh forward DeJuan Blair in the 2nd round (#37). Blair is a player whose development as a pro was going to be largely dependent on which organization selected him. If he ended up in Minnesota or Memphis, I'm not sure he would have all that much impact. But Blair hit the lottery in San Antonio. He is a very physical player who will take a lot of the physical load off of Tim Duncan. And playing with seasoned veterans who win championships like Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker will do wonders for Blair learning what it takes to be a winning basketball player. This also obviously works out great for the Spurs. Blair will be the first big man off of their bench and be able to provide a low post presence while Duncan gets his much needed rest. This is a marriage made in heaven.

I find it impossible to pan a 2nd round pick, because in reality there are only shots in the dark anyway. So here are the 2nd round picks I think could succeed and make someone's rotation.

Pitt's Sam Young to the Grizzlies at #36
Arizona's Chase Budinger to the Rockets at #44
North Carolina's Danny Green to Cleveland at #46
Oklahoma's Taylor Griffin to Phoenix at #48
Michigan State's Goran Suton to Utah at #50 (good draft for the Jazz)
Connecticut's AJ Price to Indiana at #52 (good draft for the Pacers)

Back next week to sort out the free agency madness. Y'all be cool. Giddyap.

No comments: