Organized Random Thoughts
Normally when I do my random thoughts columns, I’m generally engaging in a stream of consciousness rant jumping from one topic to another as each finger hits the keyboard. But at this particular time of year, with the draft done, most coaching changes already locked in, and the great free agency frenzy of 2010, I’m going to deliver you my random thoughts in a more organized fashion. I know that organized random thoughts wreaks of an oxymoron, but its really just a cheap excuse to make you read the whole column to find out where I think LeBron is going.
The Draft
There were very few surprises at the top of this draft. History has taught us that when there are less surprises, normally there are more mistakes.
The Sacramento Kings did the best job of anybody just by waiting. They got the 2nd best player in the draft with the 5th pick in DeMarcus Cousins. And they cleaned up by getting projected first rounder center Hassan Whiteside early in the second round. They got bigger and better. And with last year’s rookie of the year, Tyreke Evans, in tow, things are looking up for the Kings. They traded for a big expiring contract the week before the draft in Samuel Dalembert. This will be a very attractive free agent destination for someone who wants to win quick. The Kings are on the rise.
I like Ekpe Udoh, but Golden State will deeply regret passing on Greg Monroe.
Speaking of Greg Monroe, I wonder where he would be happier, in Detroit or in a prison in Guantonomo Bay. Joe Dumars wants to revolutionize the NBA as we know it by playing with a team entirely composed of off guards and power forwards.
The San Antonio Spurs continued their pattern of taking advantage of others’ mistakes by grabbing James Anderson of Oklahoma St at the 20th pick. Anderson will be a valuable addition as they work on getting younger…and he will be Gregg Popovich’s excuse to keep Richard Jefferson chained to the bench. I think even the Spurs realize that getting someone to trade for Jefferson’s contract will require a global act of terrorism.
The Nets tried very hard to move the #3 pick , but to no avail. And I don’t think they picked a bad player…they just picked a bad player for them. Derrick Favors will be a good player in this league at some point. But the Nets have made it clear that they want to win soon. Big man projects do not coincide with a young, ridiculously wealthy impatient Russian owner who has declared this team ready to win now. It would not surprise if Favors gets traded before he even plays a game. The good news is that the Nets 2nd 1st rounder, forward Damion James is ready to contribute immediately.
I have similar mixed emotions on the Clippers’ draft. Their first pick (#8) was a big miss. Al Farouq Aminu would be fine for a track meet, but the guy is not much of a basketball player. He is a tremendous athlete that needs a ton of work. The Clippers are a graveyard for guys like him. But with their second pick, I think they scored with point guard Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe has a ton of potential and a lot of skills that could make him an immediate contributor. And he’s insurance against the eventual Baron Davis injury or even worse, Davis pulling another one of his tank jobs. Count on Davis showing up for training camp looking like Oprah.
I love Houston picking Patrick Patterson.
I don’t like Boston picking Avery Bradley
If I were the Sixers, I would have gone big at #2.
There is no questioning how much better the Wizards got on draft night when John Wall officially became their’s.
And the Sixers, Nets, and Timberwolves will regret the day they decided to pass on DeMarcus Cousins. That to me will be what defines the 2010 NBA draft.
Coaching/Executive Moves
Regardless of who the Bulls get in free agency, Tom Thibodeau will give them a defensive identity that will make them better. Is he the guy to get them over the hump? If he resembles his coaching mentor Jeff Van Gundy he will be.
I’m not totally sure about New Orleans hire of Monty Williams. He is going to employ an up tempo system and he’s got the horses to do it. But there is a tremendous amount of pressure to keep backsides in the seats, which is the biggest reason that the Hornets do not want to trade Chris Paul. And if the Williams tenure doesn’t keep attendance up, Paul will be shipped out of there faster than you can say salary dump.
I know that Paul Allen made billions of dollars with Microsoft, but who exactly fires their general manager an hour before the draft. Kevin Pritchard took a team with a reputation as deviant misfits and molded them into a respectable contender. I have no idea what took place in within Portland’s front office, but there can be no logical reason to ask a fired executive to oversee your organization’s most important personnel event of the year. Pritchard deserved much better. And whoever hires him will be getting an excellent GM with a keen eye for talent. And Portland better get it together. Kicking accomplished personnel guys to the curb over garbage office politics is never a recipe for success…except at Microsoft.
The Nets hiring of Avery Johnson was a very good one. Their defense last year was absolutely abysmal and Johnson will not tolerate a repeat performance. The big issue facing the Newark Nets is the pending resignation of GM/President Rod Thorn. Thorn abruptly resigned last week, effective July 15. Thorn did a relatively candid interview with the Newark Star Ledger’s Dave D’Alessandro this week (http://www.nj.com/nets/index.ssf/2010/06/weary_after_10_seasons_on_the.html) where he stated that “it was time to leave.” This could not come at a worse time for the Nets. At the most important time to show organizational stability, the Nets have to replace their head personnel executive.
My theory on Thorn’s departure is pure speculation. None of my sources have given me any of this as factual, but it makes sense to me, so I’ll write it. Its no secret that thorn aggressively shopped the Nets first rounder right up until the moment they selected Derrick Favors. If Favors was who the Nets really wanted, Thorn would not have shopped the pick so aggressively. Then, when you combine the free agency back drop, which is loaded with big forwards the Nets have a chance to get, you could see where a brand new owner who is expecting to win immediately may not be thrilled with drafting a project, especially one who plays the same position as a wealth of guys the Nets may end up committing maximum money to for the next 5 years. Rod was in a tough spot and my bet is that Comrade Prokhorov was not all that sympathetic. I could see where Rod had very little patience to be second guessed by Prokhorov’s minions.
For the record, if I was Thorn, I would have approached this situation entirely differently. I would have picked Cousins at #3. I understand that the Nets already have Brook Lopez at center, but Lopez is a very marketable asset. Lopez could get New Orleans to possibly listen on Chris Paul. Even if it wouldn’t be Paul, Lopez would open up a whole new market for the Nets. And lets be honest about Lopez. He’s a superb inside scorer, but he has slow feet defensively and is an average rebounder at best. He is also extremely respected around the league as being a great young big, This would be a bold, unpopular move, but the type that Comrade Prokhorov just may be looking for.
Now….onto the good stuff….
Free Agency
Before I begin, I would like to clear up a few things about all of this rampant speculation. Do not trust anything that you read. For some reason, journalistic integrity has gone completely out the window this year. Every NBA writer is quoting their “sources”. However, these “sources” are as flimsy as the day is long. I share a source with a prominent NBA writer who will remain nameless. But, rest assured he’s a guy who will report something and it will crawl across the bottom of your TV screen. He took a 15 month old piece of information last week(that I had already used in this space) and ran it as breaking news. The other thing that makes me crazy is the pathological mind reading being described as journalism. The biggest offender of this is ESPN’s Chris (the Basketball Player Whisperer) Broussard. Broussard is constantly quoting sources close to LeBron. I don’t doubt that Broussard has contacts close to James. But to say things like he did two weeks ago, when he stated that “Chicago is in the lead for LeBron” is downright absurd. What lead? He’s monitoring the race in LeBron’s head? There’s nothing wrong with speculation, but when its disguised as news, it thoroughly erases the line between fact and fiction.
The other thing is that this notion that any of these premium free agents will take less money to play with one another or another star player is purely nonsense. Lest us not get so excited that we forget the one main theme of sports in the 21st century. Its always about the money. And before you say its not only about the money this time, let me interrupt you. Its always about the money. And this other idea that LeBron or anyone else is going to take a 3 year deal, then evaluate their options again is even more garbage. The CBA expires at the end of this season. In the new CBA, these 6 year deals are most likely going to go away. Any agent that allows their client to sign a 3 year deal is acting irresponsibly. There will be no 3 year deals for any of these premium free agents,,,and David Lee doesn’t count as a premium free agent.
Also, the sign and trade market will be the most active part of the free agent market early. If you refer back to the prior paragraph, you will see that I believe that’s its all about the money. Teams can offer an extra year and up to $30 million more to sign their own free agent. None of these premium free agents want to leave that kind of money on the table…not even LeBron Buffet. ESPN’s Ric Bucher has been on top of this inevitable fact for a long time now. This will make it difficult early on for the teams with bare rosters…i.e the Knicks and the Heat. The Knicks are actually in better shape than in the sign and trade market because of David Lee. And since the Raptors have gone on the record as willing to be cooperative with a sign and trade, look for Chris Bosh to be the first domino to drop.
Before I hit you with my predictions for where these players will end up, let me make one more thing perfectly clear. Miami cannot bring in two max players to play with Dwyane Wade no matter how many people report that its possible. NBA.com’s David Aldridge explains this in a very concise fashion in this column. (http://www.nba.com/news/features/aldridge.2010.freeagency/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt1) A second max player to go with Wade and lets say LeBron, would not be possible. Someone would have to take over $5 million a year less, and refer to two paragraphs above in remembering, its always about the money. So these “breaking news” reports that Bosh, LeBron, and Wade have decided to “join forces” like a couple of goddamned power rangers is nothing but pure fiction.
Please realize that I don’t have any more inside information than the next guy. I’m just one of the few willing to admit it. I am basing these predictions on what I’ve seen over time. I try to apply logic. I am not a mind reader. But please understand that at best, these are educated guesses. Anyone who claims to know any more is blowing smoke.
I’ll start with Chris Bosh….I believe that Bosh ends up going to Chicago in a sign and trade. The Raptors get Luol Deng who will help them and Bosh gets his money and a chance to compete for a title…and maybe an endorsement or two in a big city like Chicago.
I believe Dwyane Wade will remain in Miami. He’s made it clear that that’s his preference and the Heat appeared to be committed to upgrading the roster, which is all Wade has really asked for….besides max money.
I believe Carlos Boozer will join Wade in Miami. As I stated earlier, Miami will need to be patient and some other dominoes will fall first which will leave Miami with limited options. Boozer will not be able to get that 6th year because Utah will most likely not cooperate with a sign and trade.
I believe that Paul Pierce, who no one talks about, but just opted out two weeks after leading his team to game 7 of the NBA finals, will finish his career in Boston.
I believe that Joe Johnson will stay in Atlanta. They claim that they’re prepared to offer him a max deal and for once I am going to take the notoriously cheap Hawks at their word. Their promotion of assistant Larry Drew to head coach is a Johnson endorsed move. I just don’t believe that Joe Johnson would leave $30 million on the table for any reason.
I believe that Amare Stoudemire will be moved to Houston in a sign and trade. The Rockets almost closed a deal for Amare at the trade deadline. The Suns probably don’t want to completely break things down with Steve Nash’s extension kicked in. A package of a re-signed Luis Scola and Shane Battier and his expiring contract should be enough for the Rockets to reel him in…and Stoudemire gets all of his money.
I believe that Dirk Nowitzki will leave the Dallas Mavericks for….the New Jersey Nets. Dallas seems to have this notion that they can bring Dirk back for less than the max. And with Dirk’s service time, another team could offer him only $1 million less a year than what Dallas can offer him. If Dallas is planning on coming up short (like they did with Steve Nash), they leave a gaping opening for someone to exploit. Who better than a team with former Dallas coach Avery Johnson, former Dallas point guard Devin Harris, and an owner that ESPN’s Bill Simmons likes to refer to as the Mutant Russian Mark Cuban.
Ok…all done…oh yeah, I forgot someone. Here’s what I have to say about LeBron James.
There’s a scene late in the movie Smokey and the Bandit where the main character played by Burt Reynolds, named Bandit is coming close to reaching his destination while police cars and helicopters are bearing down on him. Sally Field is in the car with him and she turns to him and says, “did you count on this? I mean…All of this??” And the Bandit answers only like Bandit can in saying, “No I didn’t honey. “
LeBron is like the Bandit here. I do not believe he counted on this massive paparazzi type of coverage of his pending free agency. James is very P.R. conscious. Ith this type of coverage, it will be very difficult for him to come out of this looking good to the sneaker buying public. And in the end no one will be making this decision but him. If you look at his past, there has been one consistent virtue…loyalty. He employs his best friends from high school. He’s lived his entire life in Ohio. And as much romancing and promising that these other teams can do, no other team knows whats important to him like the Cleveland Cavaliers do. It may not be what everyone wants to hear, but my call is that LeBron will stay in Cleveland.
So, if I’m right, and if you read my mock draft you know how infrequent that is, the Knicks get shut out. And I hate to say this as a Knick fan, but its exactly what the Knicks deserve with how poorly they’ve handled this rebuilding project, but we’ll leave that conversation for another day.
Giddyap. Y’all be cool.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Thoughts on the Finals and Mock Draft
Before I engage in what has become my favorite column of the year, my mock draft, I would be remiss if I didn’t discuss some thoughts about this year’s finals, which was an epic battle among the league’s two most storied franchises.
Back in November, I had predicted that the Lakers would repeat as world champions. And although I ended up being correct in this prediction, I’m not getting all those warm fuzzy feelings on the few occasions that I’m actually right. There is a clear reason for this. No one in L.A. would be celebrating right now if Kendrick Perkins did not get injured.
Perkins is not a high profile player for Boston. He’s not one of Boston’s highly regarded “Big Three” and he is not as dynamic as star point guard Rajon Rondo. As far as attention and basketball ability is concerned, Perkins is clearly the fifth of the Lakers 5 starters. With all that said, Perkins is the heart and soul of the identity of this version of the Celtics. This Boston team prides itself on defense, rebounding, and toughness. As I’ve stated many times before, I’ve never seen a better team at playing help defense. They do a great job at protecting the rim and are generally very good at not giving up second shots. Perkins is their best post defender. He is excellent at blocking out. And he is outstanding at help defense. Granted he is not much of an offensive threat, but the Celtics really don’t need him to be.
In game 7 of the finals, the Celtics lost a game on the road where they held the Lakers to a putrid 32% from the field. In the first half alone, the Lakers shot only 26% from the field. After 6 games, they seemed to have figured out how to frustrate Kobe Bryant into taking mostly bad shots. Yet somehow, when the first ended, Boston only had a 6 point lead. The reason was very simple. The Lakers had 15 offensive rebounds in the first half. There is absolutely no way that the Lakers get 15 offensive rebounds in a half with Perkins on the floor. Furthermore, as the game was starting to slip away from Boston in the last minute, Kobe Bryant missed a three pointer with 27 seconds left in the game. But Pau Gasol saved the Lakers’ bacon by getting the offensive rebound. These are issues that Boston does not have with Perkins on the floor. And these issues are the biggest reason that there will be no championship parade in Beantown this year.
Celtic coach Doc Rivers deserves a tremendous amount of credit for taking this team as far as he took them. He had a fractured team for the second half of the season. But he got his big three to accept what a force Rondo could be and they displayed a collective toughness and a willingness to play together that allowed them to achieve more as a group than what their aging core could have accomplished individually. Despite the fact that Boston fell just short, this year represents an achievement for Rivers as a coach that no one could ever pour cold water on.
As far as the Lakers are concerned, when looking back at this finals historically, people will remember the virtuoso performances of Pau Gasol and Ron Artest picking up for Kobe Bryant on one of Bryant’s worst games in his storied playoff career. And these recollections will be accurate. Personally, I’m especially happy for Artest. I met Ron as a 16 year old high school player while scouting him as a favor for a friend. I found him to be genuine, engaging, and good hearted. He certainly has made plenty of mistakes over the course of his basketball career, but he played his best game on a night when his best was needed for his team to secure a championship. So, I’ll say this once for Ronnie…Queensbridge, but I digress.
The real heroes for the Lakers in this series were not Gasol, Bryant, or Artest. The two heroes for the Lakers were Andrew Bynum and head coach Phil Jackson. Bynum missed the last dozen games of the regular season with a knee injury. He came back early from the injury to start the playoffs. As the playoffs wore on, the knee got progressively worse. It didn’t help that he must have tweaked it about 5 times through the course of the playoffs. He had fluid drained from the knee twice during the playoffs. He dragged that knee around on the court just to give the Lakers 15-20 minutes a game or more depending on what his team needed. Without Bynum’s rebounding, defense, and physical presence, the Lakers do not beat Boston. He played in pain. He showed a ton of courage, especially for a 22 year old player and he deserves a mountain of credit. Now if only the Lakers could get him to shed a few pounds to lower his incidence of injury going forward…..but that’s a conversation for another day.
In the last column I wrote, I discussed in detail the difficulty of coaching superstars. And I went into excruciating detail on why Phil Jackson is the best coach ever at coaching a superstar. And he proved that and then some in game 7. Kobe Bryant was in the process of putting up one of the all time worst stink bombs of a game in a big spot that we have ever seen from such an accomplished player. He was 5-20 from the field after the third quarter and very frankly, if he threw a bag of garbage of a pier, it wasn’t hitting the water. Yet somehow, thanks to Artest and Gasol, the Lakers were only down 4 points.
With the help of Kobe’s good friend and long time teammate Derek Fisher, Phil got Kobe to understand that the only way to win was for Kobe to be a trusting, unselfish teammate. Kobe needed to pass out of double teams, take the ball to the rim when the opportunity was there, and continue to focus on defense and rebounding. Bryant was not a great offensive player in any facet of game 7. But in the fourth quarter, he was a great teammate and a great leader. He went 8-9 from the free throw line. He pulled down 8 of his 15 rebounds in the 4th quarter and he kept the ball in the hands of Gasol and Artest.
In one of the biggest and most pressurized moments of Bryant and Jackson’s legendary careers, Jackson was able to coach his superstar to alter his game and play in a way that got their team over the hump. An amazing coaching job by one of the best coaches the game has ever seen. Sometimes basketball is simple. Bill Murray’s character in Meatballs, Tripper, stated it simply during the C.I.T basketball game, “Feed Fink, he’s hot man.”
Mock Draft Time
I like to believe that I put together my mock draft a little differently than most others that you will see. I try to match players to teams that I think they SHOULD take, not necessarily who I think they WILL take. This approach will frequently make me more wrong than right, but of you’ve been reading this space long enough, you realize that really doesn’t phase me. There are certain situations that I will match a player to a team that is notorious for making draft mistakes, desperate, or both. But nonetheless, this is one of my favorite exercises. I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoy writing it.
Also, I would be remiss if I didn’t credit the work of Jonathan Givony of the website Draft Express for the footage, interviews, and workout reports that he posts. In formulating my opinions on players, I find Jonathan’s content invaluable.
1) Washington Wizards- John Wall (G) Kentucky- Wall has been the consensus #1 pick since he signed his letter of intent to attend Kentucky. He will enter the NBA as one of the fastest players in the league. He can score in bunches, but is also a very good passer with a knack for letting the game come to him. What impressed me the most from watching Wall through his only college season, was how his off the ball game improved. He got much better at moving without the ball, and he started to grasp the concept of help defense. Also, as the season wore on, his rebounding improved. He’s a can’t miss talent. It won’t be long where he will join Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Derrick Rose as one of the best point guards in the game. And no, I do not have the stomach to put Rondo in that group quite yet.
2) Philadelphia 76ers- DeMarcus Cousins (C) Kentucky- Here is where I go off the reservation according to all of the so called draft experts out there. The two players who you will see more often than not in other mock drafts in this spot are Evan Turner and Derrick Favors. And they very well could select either of them. However, I am very very partial to Cousins. I think Turner will be a very good NBA player. But I don’t think he’s a perfect fit playing next to Andre Igoudala. Plus, with the presence of Igoudala, its very difficult for Philadelphia to pass on a big man with a high ceiling. Favors is a unique physical specimen, but to me, he is no where near the basketball player that Cousins is. Cousins is the next great big man in basketball. He has great athleticism for a man his size. He has great hands and even better feet. He understands help defense principles very well. And he plays the game with an angry edge that you can’t teach. Its obvious that Cousins hates to lose. That’s a guy I want to go to battle with. I love this player.
3) New Jersey Nets- Evan Turner (G) Ohio State- If Turner falls to Jersey here, Net president and GM Rod Thorn will be absolutely ecstatic. Turner has the potential to be a very good NBA player and has a lot of developed skills to allow him to have an immediate impact. But more importantly for New Jersey is that Turner is an outstanding fit as a back court mate to current Nets point guard Devin Harris. Harris is clearly a point guard who is more comfortable scoring, whether its off the dribble or as a spot up shooter. Very frankly, he treats involving other players in the offense as somewhat of a burden. Turner is very comfortable being a distributor and using his scoring ability with discretion. The two of them together will be difficult to defend and with Harris’ defense somewhat evolved at this stage of his career, this will not be a back court that will be easy to exploit. If the Sixers end up taking Turner before the Nets pick, I am completely sold on Thorn’s fascination with Cousins and I would expect Rod to select him and leave it to head coach Avery Johnson on how to use Cousins and Brook Lopez together.
4) Minnesota Timberwolves- Wesley Johnson (G) Syracuse- Before I analyze exactly how Minny GM David Kahn is handling this pick, let me go on the record by saying that I like Johnson’s game very much. He’s athletic, strong, and is an accomplished scorer. There are questions about his ability to handle man to man defense on the NBA level, primarily because he played match up zone his entire college career at Syracuse. But he’s a solid player who will be a good fit in Minnesota. With that said, Kahn is handling this all wrong. I was a big supporter of how Kahn handled last year’s draft. He made a great trade with Washington to secure the #5 pick and had the luxury of two consecutive lottery picks (5 and 6). Considering that his 5 pick Ricky Rubio was a long shot to come to the U.S. for last season and he had a team not ready to compete, I thought it was gutsy and visionary to select Rubio and Syracuse point guard Jonny Flynn back to back. However, going into this year’s draft he has told anyone that will listen that Johnson is his pick no matter who falls to him. Now I understand that he already has two young big forwards in Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, but these two play as well together as Michael Buble and Ozzy Osbourne. If Favors or Cousins would fall to him, wouldn’t he have to seriously consider selecting one of them then looking to trade either Jefferson or Love? Both Love and Jefferson couldn’t guard a crosswalk and one of the intriguing things about both Cousins and Favors is that they both have the tools to be above average NBA defenders. If he would select Cousins or Favors, he would have a great market for a young big like Jefferson or Love and solve his wing problems. Instead, he’s so locked in on Johnson, that Cousins declined to work out for Minnesota because it appears to be a gross waste of time. For a GM who showed some big time cajones in last year’s draft, he’s spending this year’s draft hiding under his desk like a wimp, his last minute protests notwithstanding.
5) Sacramento Kings- Derrick Favors (F/C) Georgia Tech- If I’m Sacramento GM Geoff Petrie, I’m sending David Kahn an expensive gift after this draft. Very frankly, Kahn’s tunnel vision on Johnson has made Petrie’s life very easy. Because Petrie can be relatively confident that Kahn is going to select Johnson at #4, all Petrie really has to do is sit back and wait to see which big guy (Favors or Cousins). I like Cousins better than Favors, so I’m figuring for Favors to fall to Sacramento here. And if he does, he’s a great fit. The Kings already have two productive young bigs in Jason Thompson and Carl Landry. In all of my gushing about Cousins, I’d be remiss if I didn’t say that I think Favors has a chance to be a very good pro. He started to show flashes at the end of the season. A lot of Favors supporters/apologists have made excuses for his average production at times during his year at Georgia Tech. These excuses range from the ball hogging of frontcourt mate Gani Lawal to the passing deficiencies of the guards he played with. And although there is a kernel of truth to these excuses, if Favors was more assertive and aggressive, these issues would have been non-factors. With all that said, by all accounts Favors is a hard working kid whose body resembles Dwight Howard’s. He has a chance to be a very good player with the proper patience and guidance.
6) Golden State Warriors- Al Farouq Aminu (F) Wake Forest- This is my first forecasted mistake. The Warriors are a mess. The franchise is in limbo as owner Chris Cohan awaits the deal he’s looking for to sell the team. Their head coach Don Nelson has clearly lost his fastball at this stage of his long coaching career. They have a lot of talent, but have no clue what to do with it and no semblance of a plan. And as well as they did in last year’s draft by drafting Stephen Curry, his addition did not translate to progress in the win column. Curry and Monta Ellis take my Buble/Osbourne analogy to new heights. They played what I like to call parallel basketball. One possession, one dominates the ball, the next possession the other does. Two talented guys with no ability or willingness to work together. And until one of them is moved (Ellis), this situation will not get better. Aminu is a gifted athlete without a lot of basketball skill. Scouts love him for what he could be. He’s a guy that I would stay away from, because he just doesn’t have a great understanding of the game. But since the Warriors love to run up and down the floor, Aminu is a guy they will clearly swing for the fences with (and miss).
7) Detroit Pistons- Ed Davis (F) North Carolina- I wanted so badly to put Georgetown’s Greg Monroe in this spot for Detroit. But then I went back and looked at Piston GM Joe Dumars recent track record on choosing personnel and I realized that expecting Dumars to do the smart thing is like asking Joran Van Der Sloot to take your daughter to the prom. Davis has a lot of athletic ability, but he’s raw and really has not accomplished much in college basketball wise. Could he be a good player at one point in the future? Maybe. But the Pistons need immediate contributors and Davis is not it. But Dumars has littered Detroit’s roster in recent years with players like this, so if Davis is there, which he will be, I think this is a pretty good bet.
8) Los Angeles Clippers- Xavier Henry (G/F) Kansas- What a topsy turvy NBA world we’ve entered when we can count on the Pistons to make the dumb pick and the Clippers to make the smart one. I love Henry. He has two very important NBA ready skills as a 19 year old. He can shoot and he can defend. He subjugated a little bit of his game this past season at Kansas to fit into a talented Kansas squad. But he has a ton of ability and a ton of potential. If the Clippers take him, he will be a great fit and a great building block with Blake Griffin for L.A.’s future.
9) Utah Jazz- Greg Monroe (F/C) Georgetown- If this draft plays out like I’m predicting, Utah GM Kevin O’Connor will be like a kid in a candy store. The Jazz have already made the decision to not offer Carlos Boozer a contract in the great free agency frenzy of 2010. And frankly, it’s a good decision. The Jazz committed to Paul Milsap in last year’s offseason at a cheaper price than they would have to pay Boozer and the two of them play a very similar game and are similar in size. Monroe is a big man who has the ideal skill set to play this era’s version of a ower forward known as a “stretch 4”. Chris Bosh is the prototype for this position, but Rashard Lewis and Lamar Odom are the other players who make it prominent. Monroe is the ideal stretch 4. He has very good perimeter abilities offensively as a 6 foot 11 big guy, but is big and tough enough to defend and rebound well inside. I think Monroe is going to be an extremely productive NBA player. And if he ends up in Utah, he immediately makes them a contender to win the west. They were beaten easily by the Lakers in the second round this year because with Mehmet Okur’s injury they were not long enough to handle Odom and Pau Gasol. Monroe solves those problems. The only buzzkill here for Utah is that if Dumars wises up quickly, Monroe won’t be available. But if he is, the Jazz become a force to reckon with for years to come. And considering that this was the Knicks pick that they gave up in that clever Stephon Marbury trade, I am now going to stick my head in the toilet and flush.
10) Indiana Pacers- Ekpe Udoh (F/C) Baylor- This is probably the hardest pick to forecast in this entire draft. The Pacers are in desperate need of a point guard, but there isn’t one they like this early. It would not be a huge mistake to select Kentucky’s Eric Bledsoe here, but I think that Indiana is going to focus on value and select Udoh. Udoh is a 6 foot 10 shot blocker/rebounder with some post skills on offense. A lot of the scouts downgrade him based upon the fact that he’s 23 years old, but I actually find that to be a plus because he’s mature and developed enough to contribute immediately. He is a very nice fit in a big man rotation with Roy Hibbert and Tyler Hansbrough and frees up Indiana President Larry Bird to trade forward Troy Murphy in the last year of his contract to fill that point guard void. Of course, if Monroe is not on the board for Utah, Udoh may get snatched up by the Jazz, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.
11) New Orleans Hornets- Paul George (G/F) Fresno St- George is a great fit in New Orleans. He’s a developed shooter and a very athletic long wing. He’s still a little raw and definitely defensively challenged, but he’d be a big help in the new up tempo system that new Hornet coach Monty Williams is going to install. George and last year’s second rounder Marcus Thornton will make very nice wing weapons for point guards Chris Paul and Darren Collison.
12) Memphis Grizzlies- Luke Babbitt (F) Nevada- Memphis will be disappointed that Henry and George are gone as they look for a replacement for Rudy Gay who owner Michael Heisley will not pay big money to regardless of the rhetoric he spews. Babbitt is a very good shooter who couldn’t guard a chair. If Memphis looks to replace Gay with the pu-pu platter of Babbitt and last year’s second rounder Sam Young, they won’t be as bad off as some would think. Young is a tough defender and Babbitt can bury it from deep. They have nice complementary skills to one another and will fit nicely as wings with emerging star O.J. Mayo.
13) Toronto Raptors- Cole Aldrich (C) Kansas- All of the pre-draft buzz has Toronto selecting Texas guard Avery Bradley, but the more I read it, the more I think it’s a smoke screen. They’re committed to Jarrett Jack for another 3 years at reasonable money, and in reality as young as Bradley is, in the end its extremely questionable if he ends up being an upgrade over Jack. Aldrich serves a great purpose in that he helps the Raptors prepare for L.A.B (life after Bosh). Aldrich is a legit big man defensively and is a decent rebounder. He’s evolved enough offensively to not be a liability. And most importantly, he accomplishes a very important objective for the Raptors, which is enabling Toronto to move Andrea Bargnani to big forward. And if by some chance they keep Bosh, Aldrich provides invaluable power depth. At best, I think Aldrich will be an average NBA player, but he’d be a good fit with Toronto
14) Houston Rockets- Eric Bledsoe (G) Kentucky- Houston generally functions without a pure point guard. Aaron Brooks has been a very productive starter since being installed there after last year’s trade deadline. But with Houston trading for Kevin Martin from Sacramento at this past year’s trade deadline, they do need a distributor to get him the ball. Their current backup Kyle Lowry is more of a change of pace guy. Bledsoe should be too good to pass up here. He can defend, distribute, and learned how to shoot playing a wing next to John Wall. The one caveat with Bledsoe that could keep him chained to someone’s bench is his penchant for turnovers. That should dissipate as more maturity sets in.
15) Milwaukee Bucks- Patrick Patterson (F) Kentucky- When Buck center Andrew Bogut went down before the playoffs, the Bucks were left with a big time shortage of bigs and still almost took down Atlanta. If Patterson is available, the Bucks will be thrilled. Patterson is not great at anything, but he’s good at most things. And he shoots well enough from the perimeter to play stretch 4, although his perimeter defense is not great. With that said, I think Patterson will make a good pro.
16) Minnesota Timberwolves- James Anderson (G) Oklahoma St.- Considering David Kahn’s tunnel vision in his handling of the number 4 pick pre-draft, he seems pretty committed to upgrading at the wing positions. If Anderson is available for him, he’ll be a no-brainer. I like Anderson a lot. He’s a strong athletic wing who is tough off the dribble and is more of a scorer than a pure shooter. He’s got an NBA body and should not have a tough time adapting to playing NBA defense.
17) Chicago Bulls- Gordon Hayward (G/F) Butler- If Hayward falls to this spot, the Bulls should be ecstatic. Although Hayward needs to evolve defensively, he has as complete an offensive game as any wing player in this draft. He can handle, shoot,pass, and is creative in the half court off the dribble. His handling and passing will be very complementary to Derrick Rose’s talents for the Bulls.
18) Oklahoma City Thunder- Daniel Orton (C) Kentucky- Up until this week, it appeared that Orton was the apple of the Thunder’s eye. Supposedly, some rumors have floated of Orton having a bad knee and a bad attitude. Considering that the Thunder just traded for this pick, the day before the draft, it wreaks of a smoke screen. Orton is a big athletic center who appears to not need the ball to be effective. I say appears because he only averaged around 6 minutes a game in his only year of college. Not exactly a large sample size for a first round pick. This is a pick with big bust potential on a player who received bad advice and never should have left college.
19) Boston Celtics- Dominique Jones (G) South Florida- This is a player I really like a lot. He’s a natural scorer, a very tough rebounder for 6’4”, and plays with a nasty streak. His perimeter shooting needs some work, but he has proven to be a hard worker and a winner. His physicality will translate well to the NBA and with Ray Allen entering free agency, he would make a valuable insurance policy for Boston.
20) San Antonio Spurs- Damion James (F) Texas- James was a four year college player who is ready to contribute immediately. He played as an inside player in college, but will be more of a perimeter player in the pros. His only real weakness is that he does not shoot the ball well from deep. But he will be able to cut it on the defensive end form day 1, and will be a productive contributor for the Spurs if they go this way.
21) Oklahoma City Thunder- Larry Sanders (F/C) Virginia Commonwealth- Sanders is a good fit in Oklahoma City. Jeff Green is going to be a free agent after next year and although Green is a good unselfish player who does a lot of little things, playing forward next to Kevin Durant makes the Thunder a little smaller than they’d like to be if they want to be big enough to supplant the Lakers in the West. Sanders is a good inside scorer and rebounded well in college. He needs to put on some weight, but has the potential to be a Larry Nance type of forward in the NBA.
22) Portland Trailblazers- Avery Bradley (G)- Texas- I’m not a Bradley fan. Clearly an example of a guy who should have stayed in school. Scouts seem to like him because he is a tenacious defender. But I’m not a fan of guys who are built like point guards and don’t distribute the ball effectively. Furthermore, he’s only an average shooter. At this stage, I’m not even sure he’s a rotation player for someone, but Portland could take him because his ball handling deficiencies could be covered up playing next to Brandon Roy or Andre Miller and he can play defense.
23) Minnesota Timberwolves- Kevin Seraphin (C) France- Seraphin is a project. Scouts liken him to Kendrick Perkins. If that’s true, he actually could be a nice complement to Love or Jefferson. But he makes a nice pick for Minnesota because they may be able to talk him into staying in France for a year or two to develop further.
24) Atlanta Hawks- Devin Ebanks (F/G) West Virginia - Here’s another perfect fit for the perfect team. Atlanta’s major weakness was perimeter defense. Ebnaks is a long athletic tenacious perimeter defender. His offense is a little limited, but he plays fearless in the half court off the dribble. He needs desperately to work on his perimeter shooting. But considering the fact that Atlanta will most likely lose Joe Johnson to free agency, Ebanks can bring a completely different element to replacing Johnson at the same position.
25) Memphis Grizzlies- Quincy Pondexter (G/F) Washington- Pondexter is a very accomplished college player. Not a great shooter, but an athletic scorer with lots of basketball sense. Wherever he ends up, he is an immediate contributor to a rotation with potential into developing into more. He’s a wonderful value at this stage of the draft.
26) Oklahoma City Thunder- Hassan Whiteside (C) Marshall- Whiteside hurt himself in the pre draft camps and in interviews by displaying a cockiness that bordered on delusional. He’s very young and could have definitely used more than one year of college, but he’s in that Marcus Camby/Tyson Chandler mode in that he’s a big leaper with a nice knack for shot blocking and rebounding. Even if the Thunder land Orton, Whiteside provides decent competition and insurance.
27) New Jersey Nets- Jordan Crawford (G) Xavier- This is another player I am very fond of. Crawford is a big time scorer with big time range. Some scouts question his athleticism, but he’s one of these guys who is a much better athlete on the court than in workouts. The Nets struggled to score from the perimeter last year. Getting Crawford at this stage of the draft would qualify as a steal.
28) Memphis Grizzlies- Gani Lawal (F/C) Georgia Tech- I like Lawal. He’s physically tough and should be able to rebound and defend effectively on the next level. One of the big, justified criticisms of him is his inflated impression of his offensive skills which caused him to be a black hole at Georgia Tech. when the ball went in, it never came out. Yet he certainly has enough ability to be a contributor in someone’s rotation this year and considering Memphis’ bench issues this past season, this is as good a place for him as any.
29) Orlando Magic- Lazar Heyward (G/F) Marquette- Orlando has a chance to lose both Matt Barnes and J.J. Redick to free agency, so an athletic wing certainly is a need. Heyward is certainly athletic, but suffered a little at Marquette from questionable shot selection. At this point in the draft, he’s well worth a shot because he certainly has the ability to be an effective rotation player.
30) Washington Wizards- Solomon Alabi (C) Florida State- Alabi was a good shot blocker and rebounder at Florida State and is athletic enough to have the potential to be improve significantly. However, he is a major project offensively. But at this stage of the draft, he is more than a worthwhile risk because of his size and upside.
As you’ve probably surmised by now, I really like this draft. Its both deep and top heavy. I think that Wall and Cousins are going to be superstars and I think that Tunrer and Monroe will be excellent for years to come. There are also players that I think can be contributors in the league who I did not put into my first round. Here’s a list of second rounders who I think will make the league as significant contributors.
Lance Stephenson (G) Cincinnati- Made a terrible decision coming out, but still has a chance to be good.
Willie Warren (G) Oklahoma- Gave himself no choice but to come out by burning a bridge with his college coach, Jeff Capel. With an attitude adjustment, he’s got a chance because he has ability.
Jarvis Varnado (F/C) Mississippi St. - Good athlete and an excellent defender and shot blocker. Needs to develop an offensive game and put on some weight.
Derrick Caracter (C) UTEP- He has the offensive ability to play in the NBA, but he needs to keep off weight and keep himself out of trouble. Although he played great last year and behaved himself, discipline and citizenship remain question marks for him.
Jon Scheyer (G) Duke- Whoever gets him in the second round will be getting a steal. He’s more athletic than the scouts are giving him credit for and is an accomplished shooter. He also is a very good ball handler and is a flat out winner. He’s a first round talent who is coming out in a deep draft.
Dexter Pittman (C) Texas- Pittman has a lot of ability, he just struggles with weight issues. He had to leave the Chicago pre-draft camp because of the death of his brother. He handled it with grace that showed great character. Someone will take a shot with this kid. He’s worth a risk for any team willing to invest in a full time personal trainer for him.
Sherron Collins (G) Kansas- Collins will benefit fron being a point guard in a weak point guard draft. He’s a leader and was a tough defender in college. He’s not a great shooter and has a propensity to put on weight. Teams will be much more patient with a big guy with a weight issue than a point guard. But if Collins get himself together, he has a chance to be an effective backup.
Omar Samhan (C) St. Mary’s- Samhan has great hands and feet and plays like a winner. He’s a smart guy, but for a phys ed major, doesn’t value conditioning like he should. Similar to Pittman, if you draft him, hire him Jillian Michaels and you may just have yourself a big time center.
Da’Sean Butler (G) West Virginia- He was one of the best players in the Big East before he blew out his knee in the final four versus Duke. He’s a great kid, who defends well, takes the ball to the basketball effectively and defends like an animal. Choosing him in the second round is a worthwhile investment in a good character kid who is committed to rehabbing his knee.
I’ll be back next week with a draft review, my thoughts on the new coaching hires, and of course my own little preview of the Great Free Agency Frenzy of 2010. Giddyap. Y’all be cool.
Before I engage in what has become my favorite column of the year, my mock draft, I would be remiss if I didn’t discuss some thoughts about this year’s finals, which was an epic battle among the league’s two most storied franchises.
Back in November, I had predicted that the Lakers would repeat as world champions. And although I ended up being correct in this prediction, I’m not getting all those warm fuzzy feelings on the few occasions that I’m actually right. There is a clear reason for this. No one in L.A. would be celebrating right now if Kendrick Perkins did not get injured.
Perkins is not a high profile player for Boston. He’s not one of Boston’s highly regarded “Big Three” and he is not as dynamic as star point guard Rajon Rondo. As far as attention and basketball ability is concerned, Perkins is clearly the fifth of the Lakers 5 starters. With all that said, Perkins is the heart and soul of the identity of this version of the Celtics. This Boston team prides itself on defense, rebounding, and toughness. As I’ve stated many times before, I’ve never seen a better team at playing help defense. They do a great job at protecting the rim and are generally very good at not giving up second shots. Perkins is their best post defender. He is excellent at blocking out. And he is outstanding at help defense. Granted he is not much of an offensive threat, but the Celtics really don’t need him to be.
In game 7 of the finals, the Celtics lost a game on the road where they held the Lakers to a putrid 32% from the field. In the first half alone, the Lakers shot only 26% from the field. After 6 games, they seemed to have figured out how to frustrate Kobe Bryant into taking mostly bad shots. Yet somehow, when the first ended, Boston only had a 6 point lead. The reason was very simple. The Lakers had 15 offensive rebounds in the first half. There is absolutely no way that the Lakers get 15 offensive rebounds in a half with Perkins on the floor. Furthermore, as the game was starting to slip away from Boston in the last minute, Kobe Bryant missed a three pointer with 27 seconds left in the game. But Pau Gasol saved the Lakers’ bacon by getting the offensive rebound. These are issues that Boston does not have with Perkins on the floor. And these issues are the biggest reason that there will be no championship parade in Beantown this year.
Celtic coach Doc Rivers deserves a tremendous amount of credit for taking this team as far as he took them. He had a fractured team for the second half of the season. But he got his big three to accept what a force Rondo could be and they displayed a collective toughness and a willingness to play together that allowed them to achieve more as a group than what their aging core could have accomplished individually. Despite the fact that Boston fell just short, this year represents an achievement for Rivers as a coach that no one could ever pour cold water on.
As far as the Lakers are concerned, when looking back at this finals historically, people will remember the virtuoso performances of Pau Gasol and Ron Artest picking up for Kobe Bryant on one of Bryant’s worst games in his storied playoff career. And these recollections will be accurate. Personally, I’m especially happy for Artest. I met Ron as a 16 year old high school player while scouting him as a favor for a friend. I found him to be genuine, engaging, and good hearted. He certainly has made plenty of mistakes over the course of his basketball career, but he played his best game on a night when his best was needed for his team to secure a championship. So, I’ll say this once for Ronnie…Queensbridge, but I digress.
The real heroes for the Lakers in this series were not Gasol, Bryant, or Artest. The two heroes for the Lakers were Andrew Bynum and head coach Phil Jackson. Bynum missed the last dozen games of the regular season with a knee injury. He came back early from the injury to start the playoffs. As the playoffs wore on, the knee got progressively worse. It didn’t help that he must have tweaked it about 5 times through the course of the playoffs. He had fluid drained from the knee twice during the playoffs. He dragged that knee around on the court just to give the Lakers 15-20 minutes a game or more depending on what his team needed. Without Bynum’s rebounding, defense, and physical presence, the Lakers do not beat Boston. He played in pain. He showed a ton of courage, especially for a 22 year old player and he deserves a mountain of credit. Now if only the Lakers could get him to shed a few pounds to lower his incidence of injury going forward…..but that’s a conversation for another day.
In the last column I wrote, I discussed in detail the difficulty of coaching superstars. And I went into excruciating detail on why Phil Jackson is the best coach ever at coaching a superstar. And he proved that and then some in game 7. Kobe Bryant was in the process of putting up one of the all time worst stink bombs of a game in a big spot that we have ever seen from such an accomplished player. He was 5-20 from the field after the third quarter and very frankly, if he threw a bag of garbage of a pier, it wasn’t hitting the water. Yet somehow, thanks to Artest and Gasol, the Lakers were only down 4 points.
With the help of Kobe’s good friend and long time teammate Derek Fisher, Phil got Kobe to understand that the only way to win was for Kobe to be a trusting, unselfish teammate. Kobe needed to pass out of double teams, take the ball to the rim when the opportunity was there, and continue to focus on defense and rebounding. Bryant was not a great offensive player in any facet of game 7. But in the fourth quarter, he was a great teammate and a great leader. He went 8-9 from the free throw line. He pulled down 8 of his 15 rebounds in the 4th quarter and he kept the ball in the hands of Gasol and Artest.
In one of the biggest and most pressurized moments of Bryant and Jackson’s legendary careers, Jackson was able to coach his superstar to alter his game and play in a way that got their team over the hump. An amazing coaching job by one of the best coaches the game has ever seen. Sometimes basketball is simple. Bill Murray’s character in Meatballs, Tripper, stated it simply during the C.I.T basketball game, “Feed Fink, he’s hot man.”
Mock Draft Time
I like to believe that I put together my mock draft a little differently than most others that you will see. I try to match players to teams that I think they SHOULD take, not necessarily who I think they WILL take. This approach will frequently make me more wrong than right, but of you’ve been reading this space long enough, you realize that really doesn’t phase me. There are certain situations that I will match a player to a team that is notorious for making draft mistakes, desperate, or both. But nonetheless, this is one of my favorite exercises. I hope you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoy writing it.
Also, I would be remiss if I didn’t credit the work of Jonathan Givony of the website Draft Express for the footage, interviews, and workout reports that he posts. In formulating my opinions on players, I find Jonathan’s content invaluable.
1) Washington Wizards- John Wall (G) Kentucky- Wall has been the consensus #1 pick since he signed his letter of intent to attend Kentucky. He will enter the NBA as one of the fastest players in the league. He can score in bunches, but is also a very good passer with a knack for letting the game come to him. What impressed me the most from watching Wall through his only college season, was how his off the ball game improved. He got much better at moving without the ball, and he started to grasp the concept of help defense. Also, as the season wore on, his rebounding improved. He’s a can’t miss talent. It won’t be long where he will join Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Derrick Rose as one of the best point guards in the game. And no, I do not have the stomach to put Rondo in that group quite yet.
2) Philadelphia 76ers- DeMarcus Cousins (C) Kentucky- Here is where I go off the reservation according to all of the so called draft experts out there. The two players who you will see more often than not in other mock drafts in this spot are Evan Turner and Derrick Favors. And they very well could select either of them. However, I am very very partial to Cousins. I think Turner will be a very good NBA player. But I don’t think he’s a perfect fit playing next to Andre Igoudala. Plus, with the presence of Igoudala, its very difficult for Philadelphia to pass on a big man with a high ceiling. Favors is a unique physical specimen, but to me, he is no where near the basketball player that Cousins is. Cousins is the next great big man in basketball. He has great athleticism for a man his size. He has great hands and even better feet. He understands help defense principles very well. And he plays the game with an angry edge that you can’t teach. Its obvious that Cousins hates to lose. That’s a guy I want to go to battle with. I love this player.
3) New Jersey Nets- Evan Turner (G) Ohio State- If Turner falls to Jersey here, Net president and GM Rod Thorn will be absolutely ecstatic. Turner has the potential to be a very good NBA player and has a lot of developed skills to allow him to have an immediate impact. But more importantly for New Jersey is that Turner is an outstanding fit as a back court mate to current Nets point guard Devin Harris. Harris is clearly a point guard who is more comfortable scoring, whether its off the dribble or as a spot up shooter. Very frankly, he treats involving other players in the offense as somewhat of a burden. Turner is very comfortable being a distributor and using his scoring ability with discretion. The two of them together will be difficult to defend and with Harris’ defense somewhat evolved at this stage of his career, this will not be a back court that will be easy to exploit. If the Sixers end up taking Turner before the Nets pick, I am completely sold on Thorn’s fascination with Cousins and I would expect Rod to select him and leave it to head coach Avery Johnson on how to use Cousins and Brook Lopez together.
4) Minnesota Timberwolves- Wesley Johnson (G) Syracuse- Before I analyze exactly how Minny GM David Kahn is handling this pick, let me go on the record by saying that I like Johnson’s game very much. He’s athletic, strong, and is an accomplished scorer. There are questions about his ability to handle man to man defense on the NBA level, primarily because he played match up zone his entire college career at Syracuse. But he’s a solid player who will be a good fit in Minnesota. With that said, Kahn is handling this all wrong. I was a big supporter of how Kahn handled last year’s draft. He made a great trade with Washington to secure the #5 pick and had the luxury of two consecutive lottery picks (5 and 6). Considering that his 5 pick Ricky Rubio was a long shot to come to the U.S. for last season and he had a team not ready to compete, I thought it was gutsy and visionary to select Rubio and Syracuse point guard Jonny Flynn back to back. However, going into this year’s draft he has told anyone that will listen that Johnson is his pick no matter who falls to him. Now I understand that he already has two young big forwards in Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, but these two play as well together as Michael Buble and Ozzy Osbourne. If Favors or Cousins would fall to him, wouldn’t he have to seriously consider selecting one of them then looking to trade either Jefferson or Love? Both Love and Jefferson couldn’t guard a crosswalk and one of the intriguing things about both Cousins and Favors is that they both have the tools to be above average NBA defenders. If he would select Cousins or Favors, he would have a great market for a young big like Jefferson or Love and solve his wing problems. Instead, he’s so locked in on Johnson, that Cousins declined to work out for Minnesota because it appears to be a gross waste of time. For a GM who showed some big time cajones in last year’s draft, he’s spending this year’s draft hiding under his desk like a wimp, his last minute protests notwithstanding.
5) Sacramento Kings- Derrick Favors (F/C) Georgia Tech- If I’m Sacramento GM Geoff Petrie, I’m sending David Kahn an expensive gift after this draft. Very frankly, Kahn’s tunnel vision on Johnson has made Petrie’s life very easy. Because Petrie can be relatively confident that Kahn is going to select Johnson at #4, all Petrie really has to do is sit back and wait to see which big guy (Favors or Cousins). I like Cousins better than Favors, so I’m figuring for Favors to fall to Sacramento here. And if he does, he’s a great fit. The Kings already have two productive young bigs in Jason Thompson and Carl Landry. In all of my gushing about Cousins, I’d be remiss if I didn’t say that I think Favors has a chance to be a very good pro. He started to show flashes at the end of the season. A lot of Favors supporters/apologists have made excuses for his average production at times during his year at Georgia Tech. These excuses range from the ball hogging of frontcourt mate Gani Lawal to the passing deficiencies of the guards he played with. And although there is a kernel of truth to these excuses, if Favors was more assertive and aggressive, these issues would have been non-factors. With all that said, by all accounts Favors is a hard working kid whose body resembles Dwight Howard’s. He has a chance to be a very good player with the proper patience and guidance.
6) Golden State Warriors- Al Farouq Aminu (F) Wake Forest- This is my first forecasted mistake. The Warriors are a mess. The franchise is in limbo as owner Chris Cohan awaits the deal he’s looking for to sell the team. Their head coach Don Nelson has clearly lost his fastball at this stage of his long coaching career. They have a lot of talent, but have no clue what to do with it and no semblance of a plan. And as well as they did in last year’s draft by drafting Stephen Curry, his addition did not translate to progress in the win column. Curry and Monta Ellis take my Buble/Osbourne analogy to new heights. They played what I like to call parallel basketball. One possession, one dominates the ball, the next possession the other does. Two talented guys with no ability or willingness to work together. And until one of them is moved (Ellis), this situation will not get better. Aminu is a gifted athlete without a lot of basketball skill. Scouts love him for what he could be. He’s a guy that I would stay away from, because he just doesn’t have a great understanding of the game. But since the Warriors love to run up and down the floor, Aminu is a guy they will clearly swing for the fences with (and miss).
7) Detroit Pistons- Ed Davis (F) North Carolina- I wanted so badly to put Georgetown’s Greg Monroe in this spot for Detroit. But then I went back and looked at Piston GM Joe Dumars recent track record on choosing personnel and I realized that expecting Dumars to do the smart thing is like asking Joran Van Der Sloot to take your daughter to the prom. Davis has a lot of athletic ability, but he’s raw and really has not accomplished much in college basketball wise. Could he be a good player at one point in the future? Maybe. But the Pistons need immediate contributors and Davis is not it. But Dumars has littered Detroit’s roster in recent years with players like this, so if Davis is there, which he will be, I think this is a pretty good bet.
8) Los Angeles Clippers- Xavier Henry (G/F) Kansas- What a topsy turvy NBA world we’ve entered when we can count on the Pistons to make the dumb pick and the Clippers to make the smart one. I love Henry. He has two very important NBA ready skills as a 19 year old. He can shoot and he can defend. He subjugated a little bit of his game this past season at Kansas to fit into a talented Kansas squad. But he has a ton of ability and a ton of potential. If the Clippers take him, he will be a great fit and a great building block with Blake Griffin for L.A.’s future.
9) Utah Jazz- Greg Monroe (F/C) Georgetown- If this draft plays out like I’m predicting, Utah GM Kevin O’Connor will be like a kid in a candy store. The Jazz have already made the decision to not offer Carlos Boozer a contract in the great free agency frenzy of 2010. And frankly, it’s a good decision. The Jazz committed to Paul Milsap in last year’s offseason at a cheaper price than they would have to pay Boozer and the two of them play a very similar game and are similar in size. Monroe is a big man who has the ideal skill set to play this era’s version of a ower forward known as a “stretch 4”. Chris Bosh is the prototype for this position, but Rashard Lewis and Lamar Odom are the other players who make it prominent. Monroe is the ideal stretch 4. He has very good perimeter abilities offensively as a 6 foot 11 big guy, but is big and tough enough to defend and rebound well inside. I think Monroe is going to be an extremely productive NBA player. And if he ends up in Utah, he immediately makes them a contender to win the west. They were beaten easily by the Lakers in the second round this year because with Mehmet Okur’s injury they were not long enough to handle Odom and Pau Gasol. Monroe solves those problems. The only buzzkill here for Utah is that if Dumars wises up quickly, Monroe won’t be available. But if he is, the Jazz become a force to reckon with for years to come. And considering that this was the Knicks pick that they gave up in that clever Stephon Marbury trade, I am now going to stick my head in the toilet and flush.
10) Indiana Pacers- Ekpe Udoh (F/C) Baylor- This is probably the hardest pick to forecast in this entire draft. The Pacers are in desperate need of a point guard, but there isn’t one they like this early. It would not be a huge mistake to select Kentucky’s Eric Bledsoe here, but I think that Indiana is going to focus on value and select Udoh. Udoh is a 6 foot 10 shot blocker/rebounder with some post skills on offense. A lot of the scouts downgrade him based upon the fact that he’s 23 years old, but I actually find that to be a plus because he’s mature and developed enough to contribute immediately. He is a very nice fit in a big man rotation with Roy Hibbert and Tyler Hansbrough and frees up Indiana President Larry Bird to trade forward Troy Murphy in the last year of his contract to fill that point guard void. Of course, if Monroe is not on the board for Utah, Udoh may get snatched up by the Jazz, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.
11) New Orleans Hornets- Paul George (G/F) Fresno St- George is a great fit in New Orleans. He’s a developed shooter and a very athletic long wing. He’s still a little raw and definitely defensively challenged, but he’d be a big help in the new up tempo system that new Hornet coach Monty Williams is going to install. George and last year’s second rounder Marcus Thornton will make very nice wing weapons for point guards Chris Paul and Darren Collison.
12) Memphis Grizzlies- Luke Babbitt (F) Nevada- Memphis will be disappointed that Henry and George are gone as they look for a replacement for Rudy Gay who owner Michael Heisley will not pay big money to regardless of the rhetoric he spews. Babbitt is a very good shooter who couldn’t guard a chair. If Memphis looks to replace Gay with the pu-pu platter of Babbitt and last year’s second rounder Sam Young, they won’t be as bad off as some would think. Young is a tough defender and Babbitt can bury it from deep. They have nice complementary skills to one another and will fit nicely as wings with emerging star O.J. Mayo.
13) Toronto Raptors- Cole Aldrich (C) Kansas- All of the pre-draft buzz has Toronto selecting Texas guard Avery Bradley, but the more I read it, the more I think it’s a smoke screen. They’re committed to Jarrett Jack for another 3 years at reasonable money, and in reality as young as Bradley is, in the end its extremely questionable if he ends up being an upgrade over Jack. Aldrich serves a great purpose in that he helps the Raptors prepare for L.A.B (life after Bosh). Aldrich is a legit big man defensively and is a decent rebounder. He’s evolved enough offensively to not be a liability. And most importantly, he accomplishes a very important objective for the Raptors, which is enabling Toronto to move Andrea Bargnani to big forward. And if by some chance they keep Bosh, Aldrich provides invaluable power depth. At best, I think Aldrich will be an average NBA player, but he’d be a good fit with Toronto
14) Houston Rockets- Eric Bledsoe (G) Kentucky- Houston generally functions without a pure point guard. Aaron Brooks has been a very productive starter since being installed there after last year’s trade deadline. But with Houston trading for Kevin Martin from Sacramento at this past year’s trade deadline, they do need a distributor to get him the ball. Their current backup Kyle Lowry is more of a change of pace guy. Bledsoe should be too good to pass up here. He can defend, distribute, and learned how to shoot playing a wing next to John Wall. The one caveat with Bledsoe that could keep him chained to someone’s bench is his penchant for turnovers. That should dissipate as more maturity sets in.
15) Milwaukee Bucks- Patrick Patterson (F) Kentucky- When Buck center Andrew Bogut went down before the playoffs, the Bucks were left with a big time shortage of bigs and still almost took down Atlanta. If Patterson is available, the Bucks will be thrilled. Patterson is not great at anything, but he’s good at most things. And he shoots well enough from the perimeter to play stretch 4, although his perimeter defense is not great. With that said, I think Patterson will make a good pro.
16) Minnesota Timberwolves- James Anderson (G) Oklahoma St.- Considering David Kahn’s tunnel vision in his handling of the number 4 pick pre-draft, he seems pretty committed to upgrading at the wing positions. If Anderson is available for him, he’ll be a no-brainer. I like Anderson a lot. He’s a strong athletic wing who is tough off the dribble and is more of a scorer than a pure shooter. He’s got an NBA body and should not have a tough time adapting to playing NBA defense.
17) Chicago Bulls- Gordon Hayward (G/F) Butler- If Hayward falls to this spot, the Bulls should be ecstatic. Although Hayward needs to evolve defensively, he has as complete an offensive game as any wing player in this draft. He can handle, shoot,pass, and is creative in the half court off the dribble. His handling and passing will be very complementary to Derrick Rose’s talents for the Bulls.
18) Oklahoma City Thunder- Daniel Orton (C) Kentucky- Up until this week, it appeared that Orton was the apple of the Thunder’s eye. Supposedly, some rumors have floated of Orton having a bad knee and a bad attitude. Considering that the Thunder just traded for this pick, the day before the draft, it wreaks of a smoke screen. Orton is a big athletic center who appears to not need the ball to be effective. I say appears because he only averaged around 6 minutes a game in his only year of college. Not exactly a large sample size for a first round pick. This is a pick with big bust potential on a player who received bad advice and never should have left college.
19) Boston Celtics- Dominique Jones (G) South Florida- This is a player I really like a lot. He’s a natural scorer, a very tough rebounder for 6’4”, and plays with a nasty streak. His perimeter shooting needs some work, but he has proven to be a hard worker and a winner. His physicality will translate well to the NBA and with Ray Allen entering free agency, he would make a valuable insurance policy for Boston.
20) San Antonio Spurs- Damion James (F) Texas- James was a four year college player who is ready to contribute immediately. He played as an inside player in college, but will be more of a perimeter player in the pros. His only real weakness is that he does not shoot the ball well from deep. But he will be able to cut it on the defensive end form day 1, and will be a productive contributor for the Spurs if they go this way.
21) Oklahoma City Thunder- Larry Sanders (F/C) Virginia Commonwealth- Sanders is a good fit in Oklahoma City. Jeff Green is going to be a free agent after next year and although Green is a good unselfish player who does a lot of little things, playing forward next to Kevin Durant makes the Thunder a little smaller than they’d like to be if they want to be big enough to supplant the Lakers in the West. Sanders is a good inside scorer and rebounded well in college. He needs to put on some weight, but has the potential to be a Larry Nance type of forward in the NBA.
22) Portland Trailblazers- Avery Bradley (G)- Texas- I’m not a Bradley fan. Clearly an example of a guy who should have stayed in school. Scouts seem to like him because he is a tenacious defender. But I’m not a fan of guys who are built like point guards and don’t distribute the ball effectively. Furthermore, he’s only an average shooter. At this stage, I’m not even sure he’s a rotation player for someone, but Portland could take him because his ball handling deficiencies could be covered up playing next to Brandon Roy or Andre Miller and he can play defense.
23) Minnesota Timberwolves- Kevin Seraphin (C) France- Seraphin is a project. Scouts liken him to Kendrick Perkins. If that’s true, he actually could be a nice complement to Love or Jefferson. But he makes a nice pick for Minnesota because they may be able to talk him into staying in France for a year or two to develop further.
24) Atlanta Hawks- Devin Ebanks (F/G) West Virginia - Here’s another perfect fit for the perfect team. Atlanta’s major weakness was perimeter defense. Ebnaks is a long athletic tenacious perimeter defender. His offense is a little limited, but he plays fearless in the half court off the dribble. He needs desperately to work on his perimeter shooting. But considering the fact that Atlanta will most likely lose Joe Johnson to free agency, Ebanks can bring a completely different element to replacing Johnson at the same position.
25) Memphis Grizzlies- Quincy Pondexter (G/F) Washington- Pondexter is a very accomplished college player. Not a great shooter, but an athletic scorer with lots of basketball sense. Wherever he ends up, he is an immediate contributor to a rotation with potential into developing into more. He’s a wonderful value at this stage of the draft.
26) Oklahoma City Thunder- Hassan Whiteside (C) Marshall- Whiteside hurt himself in the pre draft camps and in interviews by displaying a cockiness that bordered on delusional. He’s very young and could have definitely used more than one year of college, but he’s in that Marcus Camby/Tyson Chandler mode in that he’s a big leaper with a nice knack for shot blocking and rebounding. Even if the Thunder land Orton, Whiteside provides decent competition and insurance.
27) New Jersey Nets- Jordan Crawford (G) Xavier- This is another player I am very fond of. Crawford is a big time scorer with big time range. Some scouts question his athleticism, but he’s one of these guys who is a much better athlete on the court than in workouts. The Nets struggled to score from the perimeter last year. Getting Crawford at this stage of the draft would qualify as a steal.
28) Memphis Grizzlies- Gani Lawal (F/C) Georgia Tech- I like Lawal. He’s physically tough and should be able to rebound and defend effectively on the next level. One of the big, justified criticisms of him is his inflated impression of his offensive skills which caused him to be a black hole at Georgia Tech. when the ball went in, it never came out. Yet he certainly has enough ability to be a contributor in someone’s rotation this year and considering Memphis’ bench issues this past season, this is as good a place for him as any.
29) Orlando Magic- Lazar Heyward (G/F) Marquette- Orlando has a chance to lose both Matt Barnes and J.J. Redick to free agency, so an athletic wing certainly is a need. Heyward is certainly athletic, but suffered a little at Marquette from questionable shot selection. At this point in the draft, he’s well worth a shot because he certainly has the ability to be an effective rotation player.
30) Washington Wizards- Solomon Alabi (C) Florida State- Alabi was a good shot blocker and rebounder at Florida State and is athletic enough to have the potential to be improve significantly. However, he is a major project offensively. But at this stage of the draft, he is more than a worthwhile risk because of his size and upside.
As you’ve probably surmised by now, I really like this draft. Its both deep and top heavy. I think that Wall and Cousins are going to be superstars and I think that Tunrer and Monroe will be excellent for years to come. There are also players that I think can be contributors in the league who I did not put into my first round. Here’s a list of second rounders who I think will make the league as significant contributors.
Lance Stephenson (G) Cincinnati- Made a terrible decision coming out, but still has a chance to be good.
Willie Warren (G) Oklahoma- Gave himself no choice but to come out by burning a bridge with his college coach, Jeff Capel. With an attitude adjustment, he’s got a chance because he has ability.
Jarvis Varnado (F/C) Mississippi St. - Good athlete and an excellent defender and shot blocker. Needs to develop an offensive game and put on some weight.
Derrick Caracter (C) UTEP- He has the offensive ability to play in the NBA, but he needs to keep off weight and keep himself out of trouble. Although he played great last year and behaved himself, discipline and citizenship remain question marks for him.
Jon Scheyer (G) Duke- Whoever gets him in the second round will be getting a steal. He’s more athletic than the scouts are giving him credit for and is an accomplished shooter. He also is a very good ball handler and is a flat out winner. He’s a first round talent who is coming out in a deep draft.
Dexter Pittman (C) Texas- Pittman has a lot of ability, he just struggles with weight issues. He had to leave the Chicago pre-draft camp because of the death of his brother. He handled it with grace that showed great character. Someone will take a shot with this kid. He’s worth a risk for any team willing to invest in a full time personal trainer for him.
Sherron Collins (G) Kansas- Collins will benefit fron being a point guard in a weak point guard draft. He’s a leader and was a tough defender in college. He’s not a great shooter and has a propensity to put on weight. Teams will be much more patient with a big guy with a weight issue than a point guard. But if Collins get himself together, he has a chance to be an effective backup.
Omar Samhan (C) St. Mary’s- Samhan has great hands and feet and plays like a winner. He’s a smart guy, but for a phys ed major, doesn’t value conditioning like he should. Similar to Pittman, if you draft him, hire him Jillian Michaels and you may just have yourself a big time center.
Da’Sean Butler (G) West Virginia- He was one of the best players in the Big East before he blew out his knee in the final four versus Duke. He’s a great kid, who defends well, takes the ball to the basketball effectively and defends like an animal. Choosing him in the second round is a worthwhile investment in a good character kid who is committed to rehabbing his knee.
I’ll be back next week with a draft review, my thoughts on the new coaching hires, and of course my own little preview of the Great Free Agency Frenzy of 2010. Giddyap. Y’all be cool.
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