Organized Random Thoughts


Normally when I do my random thoughts columns, I’m generally engaging in a stream of consciousness rant jumping from one topic to another as each finger hits the keyboard. But at this particular time of year, with the draft done, most coaching changes already locked in, and the great free agency frenzy of 2010, I’m going to deliver you my random thoughts in a more organized fashion. I know that organized random thoughts wreaks of an oxymoron, but its really just a cheap excuse to make you read the whole column to find out where I think LeBron is going.


The Draft


There were very few surprises at the top of this draft. History has taught us that when there are less surprises, normally there are more mistakes.

The Sacramento Kings did the best job of anybody just by waiting. They got the 2nd best player in the draft with the 5th pick in DeMarcus Cousins. And they cleaned up by getting projected first rounder center Hassan Whiteside early in the second round. They got bigger and better. And with last year’s rookie of the year, Tyreke Evans, in tow, things are looking up for the Kings. They traded for a big expiring contract the week before the draft in Samuel Dalembert. This will be a very attractive free agent destination for someone who wants to win quick. The Kings are on the rise.

I like Ekpe Udoh, but Golden State will deeply regret passing on Greg Monroe.

Speaking of Greg Monroe, I wonder where he would be happier, in Detroit or in a prison in Guantonomo Bay. Joe Dumars wants to revolutionize the NBA as we know it by playing with a team entirely composed of off guards and power forwards.

The San Antonio Spurs continued their pattern of taking advantage of others’ mistakes by grabbing James Anderson of Oklahoma St at the 20th pick. Anderson will be a valuable addition as they work on getting younger…and he will be Gregg Popovich’s excuse to keep Richard Jefferson chained to the bench. I think even the Spurs realize that getting someone to trade for Jefferson’s contract will require a global act of terrorism.

The Nets tried very hard to move the #3 pick , but to no avail. And I don’t think they picked a bad player…they just picked a bad player for them. Derrick Favors will be a good player in this league at some point. But the Nets have made it clear that they want to win soon. Big man projects do not coincide with a young, ridiculously wealthy impatient Russian owner who has declared this team ready to win now. It would not surprise if Favors gets traded before he even plays a game. The good news is that the Nets 2nd 1st rounder, forward Damion James is ready to contribute immediately.

I have similar mixed emotions on the Clippers’ draft. Their first pick (#8) was a big miss. Al Farouq Aminu would be fine for a track meet, but the guy is not much of a basketball player. He is a tremendous athlete that needs a ton of work. The Clippers are a graveyard for guys like him. But with their second pick, I think they scored with point guard Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe has a ton of potential and a lot of skills that could make him an immediate contributor. And he’s insurance against the eventual Baron Davis injury or even worse, Davis pulling another one of his tank jobs. Count on Davis showing up for training camp looking like Oprah.

I love Houston picking Patrick Patterson.

I don’t like Boston picking Avery Bradley

If I were the Sixers, I would have gone big at #2.

There is no questioning how much better the Wizards got on draft night when John Wall officially became their’s.

And the Sixers, Nets, and Timberwolves will regret the day they decided to pass on DeMarcus Cousins. That to me will be what defines the 2010 NBA draft.


Coaching/Executive Moves


Regardless of who the Bulls get in free agency, Tom Thibodeau will give them a defensive identity that will make them better. Is he the guy to get them over the hump? If he resembles his coaching mentor Jeff Van Gundy he will be.

I’m not totally sure about New Orleans hire of Monty Williams. He is going to employ an up tempo system and he’s got the horses to do it. But there is a tremendous amount of pressure to keep backsides in the seats, which is the biggest reason that the Hornets do not want to trade Chris Paul. And if the Williams tenure doesn’t keep attendance up, Paul will be shipped out of there faster than you can say salary dump.

I know that Paul Allen made billions of dollars with Microsoft, but who exactly fires their general manager an hour before the draft. Kevin Pritchard took a team with a reputation as deviant misfits and molded them into a respectable contender. I have no idea what took place in within Portland’s front office, but there can be no logical reason to ask a fired executive to oversee your organization’s most important personnel event of the year. Pritchard deserved much better. And whoever hires him will be getting an excellent GM with a keen eye for talent. And Portland better get it together. Kicking accomplished personnel guys to the curb over garbage office politics is never a recipe for success…except at Microsoft.

The Nets hiring of Avery Johnson was a very good one. Their defense last year was absolutely abysmal and Johnson will not tolerate a repeat performance. The big issue facing the Newark Nets is the pending resignation of GM/President Rod Thorn. Thorn abruptly resigned last week, effective July 15. Thorn did a relatively candid interview with the Newark Star Ledger’s Dave D’Alessandro this week (http://www.nj.com/nets/index.ssf/2010/06/weary_after_10_seasons_on_the.html) where he stated that “it was time to leave.” This could not come at a worse time for the Nets. At the most important time to show organizational stability, the Nets have to replace their head personnel executive.

My theory on Thorn’s departure is pure speculation. None of my sources have given me any of this as factual, but it makes sense to me, so I’ll write it. Its no secret that thorn aggressively shopped the Nets first rounder right up until the moment they selected Derrick Favors. If Favors was who the Nets really wanted, Thorn would not have shopped the pick so aggressively. Then, when you combine the free agency back drop, which is loaded with big forwards the Nets have a chance to get, you could see where a brand new owner who is expecting to win immediately may not be thrilled with drafting a project, especially one who plays the same position as a wealth of guys the Nets may end up committing maximum money to for the next 5 years. Rod was in a tough spot and my bet is that Comrade Prokhorov was not all that sympathetic. I could see where Rod had very little patience to be second guessed by Prokhorov’s minions.

For the record, if I was Thorn, I would have approached this situation entirely differently. I would have picked Cousins at #3. I understand that the Nets already have Brook Lopez at center, but Lopez is a very marketable asset. Lopez could get New Orleans to possibly listen on Chris Paul. Even if it wouldn’t be Paul, Lopez would open up a whole new market for the Nets. And lets be honest about Lopez. He’s a superb inside scorer, but he has slow feet defensively and is an average rebounder at best. He is also extremely respected around the league as being a great young big, This would be a bold, unpopular move, but the type that Comrade Prokhorov just may be looking for.

Now….onto the good stuff….


Free Agency


Before I begin, I would like to clear up a few things about all of this rampant speculation. Do not trust anything that you read. For some reason, journalistic integrity has gone completely out the window this year. Every NBA writer is quoting their “sources”. However, these “sources” are as flimsy as the day is long. I share a source with a prominent NBA writer who will remain nameless. But, rest assured he’s a guy who will report something and it will crawl across the bottom of your TV screen. He took a 15 month old piece of information last week(that I had already used in this space) and ran it as breaking news. The other thing that makes me crazy is the pathological mind reading being described as journalism. The biggest offender of this is ESPN’s Chris (the Basketball Player Whisperer) Broussard. Broussard is constantly quoting sources close to LeBron. I don’t doubt that Broussard has contacts close to James. But to say things like he did two weeks ago, when he stated that “Chicago is in the lead for LeBron” is downright absurd. What lead? He’s monitoring the race in LeBron’s head? There’s nothing wrong with speculation, but when its disguised as news, it thoroughly erases the line between fact and fiction.

The other thing is that this notion that any of these premium free agents will take less money to play with one another or another star player is purely nonsense. Lest us not get so excited that we forget the one main theme of sports in the 21st century. Its always about the money. And before you say its not only about the money this time, let me interrupt you. Its always about the money. And this other idea that LeBron or anyone else is going to take a 3 year deal, then evaluate their options again is even more garbage. The CBA expires at the end of this season. In the new CBA, these 6 year deals are most likely going to go away. Any agent that allows their client to sign a 3 year deal is acting irresponsibly. There will be no 3 year deals for any of these premium free agents,,,and David Lee doesn’t count as a premium free agent.

Also, the sign and trade market will be the most active part of the free agent market early. If you refer back to the prior paragraph, you will see that I believe that’s its all about the money. Teams can offer an extra year and up to $30 million more to sign their own free agent. None of these premium free agents want to leave that kind of money on the table…not even LeBron Buffet. ESPN’s Ric Bucher has been on top of this inevitable fact for a long time now. This will make it difficult early on for the teams with bare rosters…i.e the Knicks and the Heat. The Knicks are actually in better shape than in the sign and trade market because of David Lee. And since the Raptors have gone on the record as willing to be cooperative with a sign and trade, look for Chris Bosh to be the first domino to drop.

Before I hit you with my predictions for where these players will end up, let me make one more thing perfectly clear. Miami cannot bring in two max players to play with Dwyane Wade no matter how many people report that its possible. NBA.com’s David Aldridge explains this in a very concise fashion in this column. (http://www.nba.com/news/features/aldridge.2010.freeagency/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt1) A second max player to go with Wade and lets say LeBron, would not be possible. Someone would have to take over $5 million a year less, and refer to two paragraphs above in remembering, its always about the money. So these “breaking news” reports that Bosh, LeBron, and Wade have decided to “join forces” like a couple of goddamned power rangers is nothing but pure fiction.

Please realize that I don’t have any more inside information than the next guy. I’m just one of the few willing to admit it. I am basing these predictions on what I’ve seen over time. I try to apply logic. I am not a mind reader. But please understand that at best, these are educated guesses. Anyone who claims to know any more is blowing smoke.

I’ll start with Chris Bosh….I believe that Bosh ends up going to Chicago in a sign and trade. The Raptors get Luol Deng who will help them and Bosh gets his money and a chance to compete for a title…and maybe an endorsement or two in a big city like Chicago.

I believe Dwyane Wade will remain in Miami. He’s made it clear that that’s his preference and the Heat appeared to be committed to upgrading the roster, which is all Wade has really asked for….besides max money.

I believe Carlos Boozer will join Wade in Miami. As I stated earlier, Miami will need to be patient and some other dominoes will fall first which will leave Miami with limited options. Boozer will not be able to get that 6th year because Utah will most likely not cooperate with a sign and trade.

I believe that Paul Pierce, who no one talks about, but just opted out two weeks after leading his team to game 7 of the NBA finals, will finish his career in Boston.

I believe that Joe Johnson will stay in Atlanta. They claim that they’re prepared to offer him a max deal and for once I am going to take the notoriously cheap Hawks at their word. Their promotion of assistant Larry Drew to head coach is a Johnson endorsed move. I just don’t believe that Joe Johnson would leave $30 million on the table for any reason.

I believe that Amare Stoudemire will be moved to Houston in a sign and trade. The Rockets almost closed a deal for Amare at the trade deadline. The Suns probably don’t want to completely break things down with Steve Nash’s extension kicked in. A package of a re-signed Luis Scola and Shane Battier and his expiring contract should be enough for the Rockets to reel him in…and Stoudemire gets all of his money.

I believe that Dirk Nowitzki will leave the Dallas Mavericks for….the New Jersey Nets. Dallas seems to have this notion that they can bring Dirk back for less than the max. And with Dirk’s service time, another team could offer him only $1 million less a year than what Dallas can offer him. If Dallas is planning on coming up short (like they did with Steve Nash), they leave a gaping opening for someone to exploit. Who better than a team with former Dallas coach Avery Johnson, former Dallas point guard Devin Harris, and an owner that ESPN’s Bill Simmons likes to refer to as the Mutant Russian Mark Cuban.

Ok…all done…oh yeah, I forgot someone. Here’s what I have to say about LeBron James.

There’s a scene late in the movie Smokey and the Bandit where the main character played by Burt Reynolds, named Bandit is coming close to reaching his destination while police cars and helicopters are bearing down on him. Sally Field is in the car with him and she turns to him and says, “did you count on this? I mean…All of this??” And the Bandit answers only like Bandit can in saying, “No I didn’t honey. “

LeBron is like the Bandit here. I do not believe he counted on this massive paparazzi type of coverage of his pending free agency. James is very P.R. conscious. Ith this type of coverage, it will be very difficult for him to come out of this looking good to the sneaker buying public. And in the end no one will be making this decision but him. If you look at his past, there has been one consistent virtue…loyalty. He employs his best friends from high school. He’s lived his entire life in Ohio. And as much romancing and promising that these other teams can do, no other team knows whats important to him like the Cleveland Cavaliers do. It may not be what everyone wants to hear, but my call is that LeBron will stay in Cleveland.

So, if I’m right, and if you read my mock draft you know how infrequent that is, the Knicks get shut out. And I hate to say this as a Knick fan, but its exactly what the Knicks deserve with how poorly they’ve handled this rebuilding project, but we’ll leave that conversation for another day.

Giddyap. Y’all be cool.