Tuesday, May 26, 2009

We're about halfway through two of the most entertaining conference finals. Time to break it all down. But first a quick blanket statement about the way these teams play......



Too many 3 point shot attempts. Everyone. Stop the madness.



We see threes of the dribble, threes off the break, threes when a guy is guarded and threes when a guy is not. Only the ladder is okay. Three pointers are best when attempted open off the pass. And one other thing while I'm on the topic of threes...



Not everyone shoots them well. For chrissake, Kenyon Martin attempts the occasional three. I really like Kenyon's game, but Kenyon ought to keep his rage contained to the dribble. And although LeBron James is the king and I'm a witness and all, he isn't exactly Steve Kerr from behind the arc, his dramatic game 2 winner not withstanding. It doesn't really matter for Derek Fisher. He misses it whether its a two or a three. He can only hit the ones and he doesn't get many if those because he's too washed up too dribble the ball towards the basket.



If more attention was paid by teams to get better two point attempts, everyone's offense would function more efficiently. If you subtract all of the 3 pointers out of each team's shooting percentage, you'll find that each team is shooting close to 50%. When you compare that to the fact that each team struggles to shoot 30% from 3, it doesn't take an MIT grad to figure out that more two point attempts will lead to more efficient offense. Please keep this delectable nugget in the back of your mind next time you watch Sasha Vujacic toss up a 25 footer off the dribble with a hand in his face.



Breakdown time.....



Each of the four remaining teams will be addressed in reference to what they're doing well and what they need to improve on. Stan Van, Mikey Brown, George the Animal, and Philosophical Phil: Get your reading glasses on.



Before I go into detail about what I like about the Orlando Magic up until now, I first must mea culpa all previous criticism of my 2nd favorite Van Gundy brother, Stan. He has had an outstanding series. He has found every right matchup. He changed his offense by employing Hedo Turkoglu as a point forward much more often. This has made Turkoglu so much more valuable than just a wing shooter, which is what he normally is. He has been an outstanding playmaker who is tough to guard becausde you've got to respect the jump shot. Van Gundy has employed Dwight Howard much more frequently as a post presence, a common complaint of your truly. But most importantly, Stan has understood amd embraced the theory from the great philosopher Dan Patrick when defending LeBron James. You can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him. And although LeBron's numbers are off the charts in this series, the Magic have been a pain in his rump in the half court. The Magic have focused on shutting down everyone around LeBron and its working. A good indicator in playing the Cavaliers well is that if LeBron needs to score 40 to keep the Cavs close, you're doing things right defensively.



If I'm Van Gundy going forward, my big focus is continuity. The Magic need to keep feeding Dwight Howard inside. Cleveland's strategy to foul Howard to exploit Howard's spotty free throw shooting has not worked. Howard has been efficient from the line and at times fouling isn't enough to keep him from dunking. It is also important to keep Rashard Lewis active on the perimeter. Cleveland's big defensive adjustment on Lewis has been to switch LeBron onto him. If the ball is in Lewis' hands, LeBron's got to work. Avoiding James on the defensive end is never an answer. He's too good off the ball. Taking the ball at him can wear him down. And if we were in some sort of alternate universe where fouls were called evenly, you may even be able to get hin in foul trouble.



The two things the Magic need to improve upon are something I addressed in detail up top. They need to cut down on the three point attempts. In the two games they won, they attempted 20 and 17 threes respectively. In the game they lost, they attempted 23 and hit 43% of them. The Magic are a very athletic team and need to continue to play offense off the dribble. Lots of good things happen when you get the ball close to the basket. And speaking of athleticism, we need to see more of Mickael Pietrus guarding LeBron James. No one shuts down LeBron, but Pietrus has him breathing heavy. And that works to Orlando's advantage.



In discussing what has worked so far for the Cavaliers is summed up in two words....LeBron James. Thats it. Everyone else, including head coach Mike Brown looks overwhelmed in the moment and overmatched by the Magic. But the one person who can help get Cleveland back in the right direction is none other than the coach himself, Mike Brown.



The first problem the Cavs has had is the game is being played too fast. The Magic are athletic and love to get up and down the court quickly. The Cavs have been more than happy to oblige, which becomes a major problem with Zydrunas Ilgauskas on the court. Ilgauskas has a few post moves and can block a few shots, but he looks like he's playing in concrete shoes. If the Cavs get in a running game with Ilgauskas on the court, they're literally playing 4 on 5 on one end of the floor. Furthermore, and I know its sacreligious to criticize the king, but LeBron's got to slow things down. Despite the easy baskets and free throw attempts he garners by pushing the ball off the floor, he speeds up the tempo of the game which plays right into Orlando's hands. This is something that needs to be explained to LeBron by his coach. In spite of LeBron's abundant talent and relentless determination and work ethic, he is not unlike any other 24 year old NBA player. He needs to be coached.

The other important change that Downtown Brown needs to make his to play a smaller lineup. The Magic have a wealth of wing players with decent size and athleticism. The Cavs have very few. But they do have a player sitting on their bench who was instrumental in their 2007 trip to the NBA finals, Sasha Pavlovic. Pavlovic has just enough size and athleticism to be a decent defender on Turkoglu or Pietrus and he can drain an open three, the RIGHT kind of three, which has been a big problem for the Cavs in this series. A unit of Anderson Varejao, James, Pavlovic, Delonte West, and Mo Williams presents some matchup issues for the Magic. Put LeBron in the post, feed him the rock, spot up your shooters and send Sideshow Bob (Varejao) to the weak side to clear the glass. If Mikey B is reading, I may have just solved all the Cavs problems and threw in a Simpsons reference for good measure. Bart, not OJ......

Speaking of O.J. Simpson, its time to break down Kobe Bryant and the Lakers. I must say that my first thought for Denver to shut down the Lakers was to make sure the Lakers were booked in an Eagle County, Colorado hotel and to hire the Spitzer call girl as the concierge and send her to Kobe's room with an urgent telegram. But once I realized that someone tried that already (albeit with a different girl) and it worked, I decided to get down to business.

Before I get all over Kobe, I must say he is having a very good series. With that said, old habits die hard. Kobe's inclination to do it all himself is wearing him down and making it very difficult for the Lakers. In the four games thus far in this series, Laker center Pau Gasol has attempted 40 shots. Kobe Bryant has attempted 99 shots. This stat becomes much more alarming when you add to the fact that Gasol is shooting 62% for the series. Its no wonder that Gasol was complaining publicly about not getting the ball today. Even though Denver is very deep and very athletic inside, Gasol has to be the a big part of what the Lakers do in the half court. He has the ability to create foul trouble in Nene, the aforementioned Kenyon Martin and my new favorite bench player, Chris "Birdman" Andersen. And the thing about Gasol is that he's about as unselfish a big man that you'll find. If Gasol sees the ball alot, everyone will. Kobe needs to think about shooting less, but scoring more. And it might help make Pau happy if Kobe bought him an "L". It may not shine like his wife's "sorry I cheated" diamond, but Pau needs it a lot more.

The other big problem for the Lakers in this series is the way Philosophical Phil is operating the personnel on his front line. Please allow me to explain. My man crush, Lamar Odom is absolutely overmatched as a power player against the Denver front line. This is clearly a series where Phil needs to get Andrew Bynum more minutes. Bynum's size is tougher for Denver to handle than Odom's s athleticism. However, Phil does not need to bury Odom on the bench. Quite the contrary. Odom actually can provide a tough matchup for Carmelo Anthony if Phil would play him at small forward. A great way for the Lakers to try and negate the Nuggets size advantage would be to play Bynum, Gasol, and Odom together on the front line. Odom is a more than adequate wing player and that lineup for short stretches would dominate the glass and give Denver fits. Instead, Phil keeps giving 15 minutes a game to Luke Walton. I happen to like Luke Walton, but he is no match athletically for everyone on Denver's roster. And I am certainly not suggesting that Phil takes minutes away from Trevor Ariza at small forward. He has had a very effective series and appears to be growing up as a player right before our eyes. This comes down to an old coaching saying that my favorite Van Gundy brother (Jeff) utters often. A coach's most important responsibility is to find a way to get his best players on the floor at the time the game is being decided. Philosophical Phil has 96 minutes to split between three front court players. If he gives Odom 10-15 minutes a game at small forward, he gets his best players on the floor more.

Before I break down the Denver Nuggets, I wonder if anyone has had a donut intervention with George Karl. He looks like Jerry Krause on steroids. Lets get George the Animal onto "The Biggest Loser" before Denver ownership has to get him fitted for a special sideline chair.

The Nuggets have done a lot of things right in this series. Their big men have been active and unselfish. Carmelo Anthony has emerged as an unselfish star that will do whatever it takes to win including but not exclusive to defending, rebounding, passing and even sitting down if need be. Their bench has been very effective. They've gotten extremely valuable and productive minutes out of "Who shot" J.R. Smith and the aforementioned Birdman. Their three problems have been inbound plays, discipline, and Chauncey Billups.

Chauncey Billups has had an amazing effect on the Nuggets since he was traded early in the season by the Detroit Pistons. He has given them the point guard they desperately needed and been a great leader that has helped make Denver's young players more accountable and less selfish. Everytime Denver steps on the court, Chauncey's influence is apparent. So whats the problem??? The threes!! Thats the problem. Billups takes far too many threes before he gets Denver into their offense. Some of them go in, but as Jeff Van Gundy remided us the other night, that doesn't make them good shots. Billups can score a lot of points, but is not a big statistical guy. He doesn't record a lot of assists, yet is a very good passer. Billups' effectiveness is measured in good decisions made and ultimately wins and losses. If Billups would eliminate the pull up three, his decision making would be impeccable. And for a team that has a discipline issue, Billups increased discipline in terms of shot selection would have an influence on other players.

Which segues nicely into the next issue. The Lakers are going to have a tough time beating the Nuggets. The Nuggets on the other hand can do a terrific job of beating themselves. The taunting has to stop. The technical fouls for taunting are going to cost them a game. J. R. Smith already cost them Game 2 with his chest pounding nonsense. He needs to save his technicals for when he needs them, like to knock Kobe down. As opposed to the rest of this column, I'm not trying to be funny now. Denver needs to stay physical and sometimes drawing technicals are a great way to do it. Kenyon Martin has become a master at using the technical to keep it rough. J.R. Smith has been the Nuggets best Kobe defender. If he's drawing tees because he has to scream in someone's face, he's risking being ejected for getting rough with Kobe. And with the way Smith has defended Kobe, the Nuggets can't afford that. He hasn't shut Kobe down. But, just like Mikael Pietrus on LeBron James, he's made Kobe work. And Kobe is starting to look physically worn. If the Nuggets can keep their heads, they can have Kobe breathing real heavy when the Lakers need him the most.

The other part of Denver's discipline problem is foul trouble. Foul trouble is how they lost game 3. Too many stupid touch fouls and too much reaching in. They did a much better job of playing disciplined defense in Game 4. They will need to carry that discipline back to Los Angeles for Game 5. With offensive players like Gasol and Bryant, its easy to find foul trouble. It seems oversimplisitic and George the Animal certainly doesn't want to take the energy or spirit out of these guys, but they've got to strike that delicate balance. For the Nuggets, the difference is looking like the best team in the NBA or self destructing at the Lakers feet. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

Back soon with more playoff thoughts and a few mock drafts. Giddyap. Y'all be cool.

No comments: