Western Conference Preview- Oh Baby! Part 2


Doing a Western Conference Preview for this coming season is almost like throwing darts at a board. There is a wealth of good teams and the degrees of separation are miniscule. These circumstances do not make me any less opinionated. What fun would that be? Let’s get it on.


Northwest Division (in predicted order of finish)


Oklahoma City Thunder- The Thunder did not make any significant roster upgrades in the off season unless you count Cole Aldrich…and I don’t. The Thunder are another one of those teams who will need to improve by getting improvement from individual players on their roster. Fortunately, for them, they’re loaded with these types of players. The most obvious example is Kevin Durant. Durant’s domination in the World Championships over the summer was stunning. Besides being able to score at will, his defense as ascended to a level where he is a shutdown perimeter defender. The Thunder will be better because Durant will be a lot better. It’s almost boring to gush about Durant because of the volume of superlatives that apply. As of six months ago, I wasn’t completely sold on him as player who can lead his team to a title….oops. On the other hand, it’s plenty exciting to gush about Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook. Westbrook was virtually unguardable at times during the Thunder’s first round playoff loss to the Lakers last season. But he added an entirely new dimension to his game over the summer in the World Championships when he emerged as one of the U.S. team’s best defenders. Keep in mind that Durant is only 22 and Westbrook is only 21. The Thunder have a big decision to make when the season ends on forward Jeff Green’s expiring contract. My call is to let him go and look to get bigger and stronger up front. Green will not be cheap, and the Thunder have the type of core that would be attractive to a veteran big who can help get this team over the hump. There are too many nights for Oklahoma City where Green is overmatched by a bigger or stronger player. (think Dirk, Boozer, Gasol etc…) Even in this day and age of basketball, a team still needs quality size to be a champion. Because of that, the best the Thunder can hope for this season is a trip to the Conference finals, if that.


Portland Trailblazers- From a developmental standpoint, the Blazers have not made much progress the last two seasons. Despite a young talented core, the Blazers have not been able to make it out of the first round of the playoffs two years running. Their undoing has been primarily due to injuries, but there have certainly been some chemistry issues along the way. This season’s version of the Blazers is probably the deepest we’ve seen of late. However, all of the same questions remain. Can Greg “Benjamin Button” Oden stay healthy? Are Andre Miller and Brandon Roy going to figure out how to work well together? Can Nicholas Batum stay healthy enough to stay on the court? Will Rudy Fernandez shot selection, shoddy defense, penchant for turnovers, and general unhappiness be a distraction? Can head coach Nate McMillan keep everyone happy, healthy, and together? The favorable collective outcomes of these questions will dictate how successful the Blazers season will be. I see these questions being answered as follows: There is no way Oden can stay healthy. After the pictures of him on the internet surfaced earlier this year, Oden is actually more likely to appear in an X-rated movie before he plays in an NBA final. I think Miller is too surly to alter his game enough to fit in with Roy. I actually do believe that Batum can stay healthy enough to stay on the court. And he will undoubtedly be a defensive force. Rudy Fernandez’ entire presence will be a continuing distraction for Portland. Portland’s stubbornness in not cutting their losses with Fernandez could haunt them all season. Especially when you factor in that Fernandez isn’t all that good. And I don’t think that McMillan can keep everyone happy or healthy. But McMillan will keep them together…together enough to make the playoffs with a relatively early exit.


Utah Jazz- For a team that made some key changes in personnel, this year’s Jazz team will look an awful lot like last year’s team. The Jazz chose not to re-sign Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, and Wesley Matthews. And they replaced those three with Al Jefferson, first round pick Gordon Hayward, and veteran Raja Bell. Jefferson is not as good as Boozer, but he will replace Boozer’s scoring. Hayward will probably not be as good a shooter as Korver, but his game is more diverse and he’s got a great future. Bell is a better defender than Matthews, but much older and much more injury prone. The net effect of all of this as far as the win column is concerned is neutral. With Jerry Sloan as the head coach, this team will always defend and play hard. And with Deron Williams as the starting point guard, this team will not have a problem scoring points. But the bottom line is that the Jazz are just another good team in the West. Because of the depth in the West, the best the Jazz can do is win one playoff round, just like last season.


Denver Nuggets- In the final scene of the movie Animal House, the Deltas systematically destroy the homecoming parade. Kevin Bacon plays a college student who is working at the parade as a security guard in one of his first movie roles ever. As the parade is slowly becoming a total disaster, Bacon repeatedly utters the term, “all is well, remain calm.” Each time he makes this declaration, there is more and more panic in his voice. The final time that Bacon recites this mantra, he screams it as he stomps his feet…about 3 seconds before he gets trampled by a mob. I impart this little anecdote because each and every time I’ve heard Denver head coach George Karl comment about the upcoming season, he sounds more and more like Kevin Bacon in Animal House. This is an organization that is at a crossroads, to say the least. Carmelo Anthony wants out, and for all intents and purposes has given the Nuggets only one destination where he would be willing to sign an extension. And since the Knicks are painfully aware that they are the apple of Anthony’s eye, they have steadfastly refused to offer Denver their best young asset in Danilo Gallinari, although there are rumblings that the Knicks are softening that stance. Denver’s continued dalliance with New Jersey is only to create the illusion of leverage against the Knicks. As distasteful as it is to Karl, the Nuggets need to get rid of Anthony sooner rather than later. I don’t blame George for trying to keep this together for another run. The Nuggets were a few mental meltdowns away from actually knocking off the Lakers in the 2009 West final. And Karl missed last year’s playoffs while he battled cancer. The point that seems to be eluding Karl is that this Nugget team is not the same team he went to the finals with, although most of the names and faces are the same. Point guard Chauncey Billups is almost two years older and is not the athlete he was. Kenyon Martin’s knee has gotten progressively worse and probably isn’t getting better, which severely compromises him. He won’t be starting the season. Chris “Birdman” Anderson’s athleticism has been compromised by a chronic bad knee. He won’t be starting the season either. And starting center Nene is recovering from knee surgery to repair a tear he sustained in last year’s playoffs. Heck, Karl doesn’t even work for the same guy anymore. GM Mark Warkentien was replaced by 39 year old Masai Ujiri. Warkentien, after winning Executive of the Year in 2009, got canned with assistant GM Rex Chapman for fighting with one another. There is a good reason that Anthony wants to leave. The more they wait to move him, the harder it will be. And, when that is done, they need to get working on moving Billups. They’ll be a big market for him. The faster Denver breaks it down, the faster they can turn it around. Denver needs to understand a stark reality of today;s NBA. If you’re not competing for a title, you need to be rebuilding. They’ve got a great start with second year point guard Ty Lawson. In the meantime, no matter how fast or slow Denver starts to rebuild, they will have a representative in May in Secaucus, NJ anxiously hoping to win the draft lottery.



Minnesota Timberwolves- Unfortunately for Minnesota, all talk about the state of their franchise starts and ends with GM David Kahn. My mother would describe Kahn as the cow who gives milk and kicks over the can. For every decent or bold move Kahn makes, he then makes a counter move that is so asinine, he could work in Congress. Last season’s version of Kahn’s madness had to do with drafting not one, but two pick and roll point guards, then hiring a coach (Kurt Rambis) who employs the triangle offense. This year’s version of the rollercoaster known as Kahn contained the Michael Beasley heist, Darko Milicic’s grand larceny, the trading of Al Jefferson for a dirty pair of sweat socks, and the efficient signing of Luke Ridnour. In spite of Kahn…and because of him, the Timberwolves have accumulated some interesting assets. Wesley Johnson, Kevin Love, the aforementioned Beasley, Johnny Flynn, Corey Brewer, and the rights to Ricky Rubio is an interesting core for a resourceful GM to work from. And considering the fact that there is absolutely no way that the Wolves can even compete to approach the playoffs, there will be another lottery pick in the offing as well. Minnesota owner Glen Taylor would be very wise after this season, but before the draft, to thank Mr. Kahn for his service to the organization and bring in a GM who can allow the franchise to rebuild in earnest. With experienced names like Warkentien, Kevin Pritchard, and Chris Mullin out there (notice I left out Isiah Thomas), Taylor is cheating his fans if he keeps Kahn on the job too much longer.



Southwest Division (in predicted order of finish)

Dallas Mavericks- Dallas ended last season with a bitterly disappointing first round playoff loss to the San Antonio Spurs. In the end, Dallas just didn’t play defense well enough to conquer an experienced unit like the Spurs. The Mavericks are a veteran group with a good coach in Rick Carlisle. Their GM Donnie Nelson chose not to overhaul the roster, but to add to it in exactly the spots the Mavericks needed. Nelson added often injured, but very effective center Tyson Chandler. He also re-signed center Brendan Haywood, who they acquired at last year’s trade deadline from Washington. He also traded for a late first round pick and used it on South Florida guard Dominique Jones, who should make their rotation. Chandler and Haywood are both excellent complements to Dirk Nowitzki in the front court. Jones adds to a very deep stable of guards. All of the components are there for Dallas to make a run at the Lakers for conference supremacy. The most important element for the Mavericks is how well Carlisle coaches them up. First off, he needs to realize that their biggest weakness is perimeter defense. Too often in the playoffs, he went with a small lineup, which hurt them badly on defense. His two best perimeter defenders are Caron Butler and Shawn Marion and he rarely, if ever, plays them together. I read a quote last week from Jason Kidd where he said he would welcome having his minutes reduced. If he’s telling the truth, which is always a question with Kidd, this is a good thing, because Kidd has become a defensive liability. Carlisle spent way too much time with Kidd and Jason Terry on the court together, which is like laying out the red carpet to the hoop for opposing guards. Neither of them are one of the Mavericks’ five best defenders. Dallas has the potential to be tremendously successful this coming season. But if Carlisle does not put a premium on defense in managing his rotation, we’re looking at another first round exit. I’m betting Ranger Rick gets it and the Mavs make it all the way to the West finals and give the Lakers all they can handle.


Houston Rockets- The Rockets are one of the harder teams to preview in the league. I know it’s not brain surgery, but their fortunes this season are completely tied to the health of center Yao Ming. Yao provides a uniquely dominant physical presence on both ends of the floor. The Rockets are a skilled, deep team. But Yao makes them special. The West is a very deep, competitive conference. The Rockets without Yao are a bubble playoff team that most likely fall to the wrong side. However, with Yao, they’re a threat to go to the finals. Their GM, Daryl Morey, had a relatively quiet off season. He bailed out of last year’s off season mistake which was the free agent swap of Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza. Despite the fact that Artest is truly out of his mind, he was an enormous defensive presence for the Lakers and frankly they would not have won the title without him. Ariza ended up being a high volume, low percentage shooter who dominated the ball and seemed to forget everything that made him an effective role player. Morey moved him to New Orleans in the off season and brought back Courtney Lee from the Nets in a 4 way deal. Lee was miscast in New Jersey as a starting wing. He will be used much more effectively in Houston as a backup to wings Kevin Martin and Shane Battier. Morey also reinforced his front court by signing forward Luis Scola to a new, rich contract. He also added center Brad Miller, which should be an enormous help to Yao. The Rockets plan on only playing Yao 24 minutes a game this season to lower his incidence of injury. Miller is the perfect guy to split that time with Yao. He handles the ball well out at the high post like Yao, and plays with a mean streak that the Rockets lost when they decided to let Artest leave. I’m a buyer on the Rockets, largely because Morey has put a plan in place for Yao to be available at the times Houston needs him most. I’ve got the Rockets winning at least one round in the playoffs and will be a tough out for anyone, including the World Champion Lakers.


San Antonio Spurs- On the surface, San Antonio appeared to have upgraded their chances to compete to win the West. And although I credit GM R.C. Buford with a productive off season, the Spurs may have the same issues that plagued them the last few years. You see, the Spurs aren’t exactly as young as springtime. Their two best players, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, are 34 and 33 respectively. And their 28 year old point guard, Tony Parker, get hurt a lot more than the Spurs would like. Besides retaining Richard Jefferson ( for an absurd amount of money), their two big off season moves were the drafting on first round pick, wing player James Anderson and the signing of Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter. Anderson is an athletic young wing with an NBA body and some scoring ability. Splitter is an impressive 25 year old big man who can clearly take pressure off of the aging Duncan. The problem is that Splitter has a history of not staying healthy himself. And, sure enough, he’s already on the shelf in the preseason with a bad foot. For the Spurs to challenge the Lakers in the West, they are going to need to be blessed with good health for a good part of the season and especially the playoffs. To me, that’s a tall order. Head coach Greg Popovich will do everything he can to keep his older guys and injury prone players fresh. However, I think there are just too many variables for the Spurs from a health standpoint. As cynical as it sounds, I don’t see things falling the Spurs way. That championship window that was open for so long has officially closed. They’ll make the playoffs. But that’s right where it will end.


Memphis Grizzlies- Since the Grizzlies disastrous February 1, 2008 trade of Pau Gasol, they have appeared to be a hopeless franchise. Their GM, Chris Wallace, hasn’t exactly built a reputation as a skilled organizational architect. And as much fun as it would be to fill my Memphis preview with Chris Wallace jokes, I can’t. The Grizzlies have actually become a good team. They made excellent progress last season in jumping to 40 wins. They were competing for a playoff spot until they ran out of steam late. Wallace made a bold move in trading for power forward Zach Randolph. Randolph is always a risk to run afoul with the law and has never been too fond of passing or defending. But Randolph is an animal in the post and is an effective rebounder. And Wallace was able to bring him while he’s looking for a new contract. The fruits of Wallace’s much maligned Gasol trade, Pau’s younger brother Marc Gasol, has developed into a quality center. The Grizzlies re-signed their best player Rudy Gay to a 5 year max deal. It’s a lot of money for Gay, but it gave them some much needed continuity. When they combine that with O.J. Mayo and their two new athletic wings, free agent signing Tony Allen and first round draft pick Xavier Henry, the Grizzlies have some depth and can run the floor with anybody. Take this one to the bank as my surprise West playoff team. Ladies and gentlemen, here are your 2010-2011 Memphis Grizzlies.


New Orleans Hornets- There’s a scene in the movie Good Fellas where Joe Pesci’s character, Tommy DeVito is on his way to get “made”, which is a rite of passage for a young gangster who establishes himself. On the way to his ceremony, Tommy is as happy as can be as if all is right with the world. Unfortunately for Tommy, when he arrives to his ceremony, he ends up with a bullet in the skull. He had no idea that pending doom was on the other side of the door. When I look at this year’s version of the Hornets, Tommy’s fate comes to mind. The Hornets are a team who is absolutely desperate to keep their star point guard Chris Paul. Paul requested to be traded this past off season and the Hornets managed to get themselves a “stay of execution” so to speak. They convinced Paul that they could assemble a good enough core around him to be competitive in the West. Paul does not have a ton of leverage right now because he still has two years on his contract, so he rescinded the request and is playing the role of good soldier. The Hornets attempted to placate Paul by trading Paul’s backup and heir apparent, Darren Collison, to Indiana in a 4 way deal that brought Trevor Ariza to New Orleans. Ariza still has 4 more years left on his deal. And if he plays like he did in Houston last season, the Hornets have created more problems than they’ve solved. Furthermore, when Paul lifts the stay of execution which will most likely be next off season, the Hornets gave up their insurance policy. If they keep Collison and bring back a good package for Paul, they never have to bottom out and they’re younger and cheaper. Instead, when Paul decides he wants to join Carmelo Anthony in New York, or Dwight Howard in Orlando, the Hornets will be stripped bare which could jeopardize basketball in New Orleans altogether. These issues will hang over the Hornets season like a tornado cloud no matter how much new GM Dell Demps and new head coach Monty Williams wish them away. It will be lottery city for the Hornets this year and they better find a comfortable seat because they are going to be there awhile.


Pacific Division (in order of predicted finish)

Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers face an amazing challenge this season. In spite of the fact that the Lakers significantly improved in the off season, this title defense will be much tougher than the last two titles. The bar is raised around the league. But more than that, the Lakers are going to have to conquer fatigue, father time, and some nagging, potentially debilitating injuries that could undermine their ability to win their third title in a row. Laker head coach Phil Jackson has 10 championships to his name. Out of Philosophical Phil’s 10 titles , none may have been more difficult to achieve than last season’s. And as hard a last year’s title was, this year is going to be harder. Jackson’s toughest challenge will be economizing the minutes of his key players to have them healthy enough to be effective in the playoffs. Very frankly, Jackson played with fire last year and it paid off. Kobe Bryant played far too many minutes in the regular season considering his ongoing health issues. The Lakers signed free agent Matt Barnes in the off season to relieve some of Bryant’s burden. Big Chief Triangle’s biggest problem will be getting Kobe to understand that his minutes need to be regulated. Kobe will fight reduced minutes every step of the way, but Barnes will give them productive playing time while Bryant rests. Jackson also has to deal with Andrew Bynum’s not so recovered knee. Bynum will not be ready to start the season and L.A. will be lucky if he’s back by December. And when he does come back, Jackson would be quite wise to limit his minutes until he gets himself back into shape. Because of Bynum’s injury history and his size, despite his youth, Jackson should wait until he’s in peak condition before using him full time. Bynum’s chances of getting hurt again rise exponentially if he’s not in the best shape possible. The other problem that Phil needs to be acutely aware of is the emerging fatigue of Mr. Khloe Kardashian himself, my main man, Lamar Odom. Odom is enormously important to how the Lakers play because of the diversity of his game. He played his heart out in this summer’s World Championships in being the U.S. team’s key big man in their gold medal winning effort. The fact that Odom looked exhausted on the court, yet was supremely effective, was incredibly impressive. So after a month off, he embarks on what should be a minimum of 100 games over the next 8 ½ months. Jackson needs to be very careful here, so he also has Odom when he needs him. This will require Jackson to show some faith in veteran big man Theo Ratliff and rookie big man Derrick Caracter. If Ratliff is all washed up, like I suspect, than Jackson is going to have to have a lot of faith in a rookie, which rarely is standard operating procedure for Jackson. Whatever happens, Philosophical Phil will do it his way and no one else’s. And considering the man has two fists full of championship rings, he’s not a guy I want to pick against. Because of that, and the lack of another elite team in the Western Conference, I’ve got the Lakers winning the West and going to the finals.


Phoenix Suns- The Suns made a fantastic run to the West finals last season. Unfortunately for them, their most important on court asset is playing on Broadway and their most important off the court asset will be sitting next to Marv Albert at a TNT broadcast table. Many people in NBA circles consider Steve Nash as Phoenix’s best on court asset. Over the last few seasons, as Nash as gotten older, and Stoudemire has hit his prime, Amare has been a more important player for the Suns than Nash. Nash is a brilliant offensive player. However, his complete disinterest in defense borders on offensive. Next time you’re watching Nash on defense (play defense would be on overly generous term), observe what he does when his man beats him. Where a player like Rajon Rondo for example will head toward the basket after he gets beaten to help the man who helps him or be in position to grab a rebound, Nash hangs out close to the sideline to be in position for an inbound pass after a made basket. Nash will wait by the sidelines looking for an inbound pass often times when the ball hasn’t even been shot yet. Now please don’t get me wrong. I am not extolling the virtues of Stoudemire’s defense. Average would probably be a bit of a reach in describing Stoudemire’s defensive prowess. But at this stage of both of their careers, we’re going to see that Nash needs Stoudemire a lot more than Stoudemire needs Nash. I also feel the need to reiterate a point made last week by ESPN.com columnist Bill Simmons. In summarizing Phoenix’s off season, he asked the question of why would the Suns spend $80 million combined on Channing Frye, Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick when they could have brought Amare back for $100 million. It’s a great question, but has unfortunately become standard operating procedure for owner Robert Sarver’s Suns. Steve Kerr was the Suns GM last year. He did a masterful job of building a deep versatile roster that gave head coach Alvin Gentry several options depending upon how they needed to match up. After Gentry did an amazing job leading the suns to the West final, Kerr had the unmitigated gall to suggest to Sarver that Kerr and the front office staff deserved raises. What Sarver had in mind were reductions in pay for the front office. Kerr realized that he was spitting into the wind and walked. So where does that leave Gentry and the Suns? Well considering that the loss of Stoudemire will cause Gentry to have to play small all the time to get his best players on the floor, it leaves the Suns up a creek without a paddle in the West. It will be extremely difficult to match up favorably with teams like the Lakers, Dallas, Portland, San Antonio, and Houston when your big forward is Handsome Hedo Turkoglu. Because of that, I think that the Suns will struggle mightily to make the playoffs.


Sacramento Kings- There’s an old saying about success being defined when preparation meets opportunity. Then, sometimes, there’s just flat out dumb luck. In the 2009 draft, Oklahoma City decided to select James Harden with the third pick and leave Tyreke Evans for Sacramento to select at #4. On his way to winning rookie of the year, Evans was only the 4th rookie ever to average 20 points a game, 5 rebounds a game, and 5 assists a game. The other three were Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and Lebron James. Evans is on his way to being a big time all around player in the league for a long time. In this 2010 draft, the 76ers, the Nets, and the Timberwolves all decided to pass on the best big man in the draft, DeMarcus Cousins. The fact that Sacramento GM, Geoff Petrie selected Cousins was more about the mistakes of others than his own stroke of genius. Nonetheless, the Kings have two building blocks who have the potential to be two of the best ten players in the league. I am particularly fond of Cousins. He has great hands, great feet, plays physical defense, and backs down from no one. The big knock on him is that he is an angry, immature kid. But he’ll grow up, and that anger gives him an on-court edge that makes him very tough to play against. Furthermore, the Kings are very deep up front with Cousins, Jason Thompson, Carl Landry (another favorite of mine), and 19 year old promising rookie Hassan Whiteside. Besides Evans, they have two promising young wings in Omri Casspi and Donte Greene. The only important building block this team still needs is a point guard. Beno Udrih had a good year last season, but he’s not the long term answer as the starter. The Kings are moving in the right direction. You can sort of look at them as Oklahoma City Light. They probably won’t make the jump into the playoffs this year. But, next year…..look out.


Los Angeles Clippers- I’ve never been one to bag on the Clippers just because they’re the Clippers. The combination of poor management and bad luck has made them a franchise that’s synonymous with futility. They thought that their troubles were in the rear view mirror last season when they won the lottery and the privilege to draft Blake Griffin. Then Griffin blew out his knee and didn’t play a game. And now Griffin is back. He has looked great in the preseason and appears ready to lead this team. But what exactly is he going to be leading? Between Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, and Eric Gordon, Griffin has enough around him for L.A. to be respectable. Unfortunately, too many things have to go right for the Clips to creep into the playoffs. Davis has not appeared to be a happy player the last few years. He was lured to the Clips under false pretenses (thanks Elton Brand). And his body language tells the story. But this should be a fresh start. Besides for Griffin, the Clippers brought in a new head coach in former Bulls head coach Vinny Del Negro. Del Negro certainly had some growing pains in Chicago, but he’s a good coach with potential to get better. The big problem with the Clippers is that they didn’t do very much to help themselves in the off season. They signed two pedestrian free agents in Randy Foye and Ryan Gomes. And they drafted a bust in the making in Al-Farouq Aminu and a good young guard caught behind Davis in Eric Bledsoe. Between Griffin, Gordon and Bledsoe, there are the beginnings of some sort of future. In the meantime, the Clippers will be occupying familiar territory….the draft lottery.


Golden State Warriors- Since there is so much bad news associated with the Warriors, I’m going to focus on the good news first. They have new ownership, a new coach, and a few guys that can score. That’s where the good news ends. They replaced Don Nelson at head coach with assistant Keith Smart. Smart is promising to employ a more defensive oriented system. Which is a great idea for the exception of one little problem. Their personnel is geared towards playing an up tempo game without much concern for defense. They paid David Lee an absurd amount of money to come as a free agent. And they gave up a gifted young player in Anthony Randolph in the sign and trade. Lee can score a little and gets rebounds, but he’s as bad a defender as you’ll see and the next guy he boxes out will be his first. Monta Ellis is a chucker who doesn’t pass or defend. Stephen Curry is a statistic machine, but he turns the ball over a ton and doesn’t defend very well either. As a matter of fact, Andris Biedrins is the only guy on the roster who can guard anyone. Smart has the right idea in what he wants to do, but the wrong group to do it with. Ultimately, they’re going to have to decide if they want to keep Ellis or Curry because the most obvious thing about last year’s Warrior team was that these two could not play together. Rarely would they both touch the ball on the same possession. The one they will most likely keep is Curry, even though he can return much more in a trade than Ellis can. Either way, they will be no where close to a playoff team this season.



Playoff Seeds

1) L.A. Lakers
2) Dallas
3) Oklahoma City
4) Houston
5) Portland
6) San Antonio
7) Utah
8) Memphis


First Round

L.A. over Memphis
Dallas over Utah
San Antonio over Oklahoma City
Houston over Portland


Second Round

L.A. over Houston
Dallas over San Antonio

Conference Finals

L.A. over Dallas


NBA Finals

Boston over L.A. (in 7)



I can’t escape what I saw in game 7 of last year’s NBA finals. For as good as the Lakers are, they ran out of steam at the end of that series. They were able to win the title because of two important factors. The first being the home court advantage. The Lakers could not have won game 7 with as badly as they shot if they were on the road. The second factor was the absence of Boston center Kendrick Perkins. The Lakers shot 26% from the field in the first half of that game but were only down six at the half largely because of their 15 offensive rebounds. There is no possible way that L.A. gets 15 offensive rebounds in a half with Perkins on the floor. The Celtics have restocked their rotation of bigs with the addition of the O’Neals…and they’ll get Perkins back sometime in the middle of the season. For the Lakers to win last year, a lot of things had to fall their way. These two teams are so evenly matched, I see things falling the Celtics way this year by the slimmest of margins.

Giddyap. Y’all be cool.