The Shell Answer Man



My favorite teacher ever was my 8th grade journalism teacher Bill Ehrlich. Mr. Ehrlich generally played it by ear with the curriculum and loved basketball as much as I did. He also did not subscribe to the theory that no question was a dumb question. Every time someone asked Mr. Ehrlich a dumb question, he always gave the same answer. “What the hell am I, The Shell Answer Man?’ This was a reference to an early 80s TV commercial for Shell Oil where a guy dubbed the Shell Answer Man answered any question you can imagine about cars, oil, gas etc….

So as a tribute to my first journalism inspiration, Mr. Ehrlich, I am going to use a new column theme called the Shell Answer Man. I am going to compile questions that either I’ve been asked, I’ve heard someone else ask, or most often, I’ve asked myself. Considering that I talk to myself more than anyone else talks to me, a good number of these questions involve me talking to myself, so kindly indulge me.

It is a very unique start of training camp across the NBA when there is a player the caliber of Carmelo Anthony who is likely to move before the season begins. Therefore the maiden voyage of the Shell Answer Man will focus around Anthony and his quest to be able to see Denver in his rear view mirror.

Will this well publicized Anthony trade to the Nets actually be consummated?

My call is absolutely not. There are a few different obstacles standing in the way of this deal’s completion. First and foremost, The Nets will not make this trade if Anthony doesn’t agree to a contract extension. Anthony has made it very clear to everyone and anyone that would listen that his first choice is to go to the New York Knicks. And although the Nets are located and will be located no more than one bridge from Manhattan, to Carmelo, I believe it represents a significant difference. First of all, sources close to Anthony say that he would like to play with Amare Stoudemire and those same sources are not saying he’s dying to play with the untouchable Brook Lopez. Anthony’s top two choices on his wish list may end up being his only two, New York and Chicago. And considering that the only way Denver would trade Carmelo to Chicago would be if they got Joakim Noah in return, we can rule out Chicago. The Bulls are not moving Noah and I don’t blame them. So that leaves the Knicks. When we consider the fact that Carmelo has all of the leverage based upon the fact that he can leave Denver at the end of the season and go wherever he wants, he doesn’t have to agree to extend a contract anywhere he doesn’t prefer to, which is bad news for the Nets. The only break the Nets can catch here is that Anthony may be hesitant to hit free agency with the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring at the end of the season, Anthony may not want to go into the unknown not knowing, so to speak. Anthony can guarantee himself up to 5 more years by signing a three year extension which would require exercising his 2011-2012 option at max money. There is no guarantee he gets 5 years in the new CBA. It become a big old game of chicken. If Anthony doesn’t blink and calls Denver’s bluff about not sending him to the Knicks, he risks not getting 5 years at this CBA’s max numbers. Three months ago, I would have absolutely believed he would accept the Nets trade and take the money, but after the South Beach Super Heroes took less to play together, I feel differently. In the end, Cleveland caved and did a sign and trade for Lebron, after they said they never would. If Anthony calls Denver’s bluff about the Knicks, I think Denver caves too and doesn’t risk getting nothing for him. Which leads us to our next question……

If Anthony wants to play in New York so badly, why aren’t the Knicks bigger players in all of this right now?

The first and most important reason is that the Knicks do not have a package that is relatively attractive to Denver. Denver has made it clear they want a young asset(s), salary cap relief and draft picks. The Knicks have a few young assets and can offer Ready Eddy Curry as cap relief but don’t have a draft pick to send because of last February’s disastrous Jared Jeffries trade. The other reality staring the Knicks in the face is the fact that even if they had a first rounder to send to Denver, they still are not going to have a relatively competitive package. If the Bulls ever decided to include Noah, the Knicks couldn’t compete. And this deal that the Nets have agreed to is a much better deal than what the Knicks can offer.

Knick GM Donnie Walsh has been getting skewered on New York talk radio for the Knicks not being major players for Anthony at this stage of the game considering how badly Anthony wants to play in New York. In reality, Donnie is actually playing this perfectly. Why would Donnie offer up his best possible package when he knows it won’t be enough? If Anthony gets traded to the Knicks, it will be because he used his considerable leverage to bend the Nuggets over a barrel to get there. If Anthony uses this leverage, the Nuggets will be at the Knicks mercy if they want to get anything for him. Why should Donnie offer his best package, when he’ll be able to do it for less, especially if his best package isn’t enough? The Knicks only chance is if Anthony backs Denver into a corner and gives them no other viable alternative. In that scenario, Walsh will most likely not have to put Danilo Gallinari and Anthony Randolph in the same package. He can keep one, most likely Gallinari. And if Donnie needs a first rounder, both Houston and Denver are willing to offer a first rounder to New York for Randolph. Beggars can’t be choosers and Carmelo has the ability to turn Denver into beggars. Sure, Denver can be defiant and choose to let Anthony go to free agency, but then they will get nothing for him, just like Cleveland did with Lebron James. Considering the Knicks do not have the best hand at this poker table, they are playing this perfectly. If Anthony says no to New Jersey, in poker terms, the Knicks have flopped the nut flush.

What happens to Denver if Anthony rejects the Net deal?

If Anthony rejects the Net deal, Denver is up a creek without a paddle. They lose any negotiating leverage with any other teams. Most likely, Denver would start the season with Anthony on their team while continuing to beg him to sign an extension with them or expand his wish list. There is a low likelihood of either of those things happening. The longer Denver holds Anthony into the season, the less they will be able to bring in for him. So as angry as Denver will be at him and as distasteful as it would be to give him his way, ultimately it would be good business to move him to New York and get whatever they can.

What happens to New Jersey if Anthony rejects the deal?

If Anthony rejects this deal, it will be a black mark on the New Jersey’s new regime. Their ability to attract premium players in their prime will be completely neutralized. And it will certainly lengthen their rebuilding process which is sure not to please new owner Mikhail Prokhorov. But with the young assets they’ve accumulated, combined with their salary cap space and a wealth of draft picks, they still should get things turned around in the next 3 years. A player of Anthony’s stature would bring instant credibility. That level of credibility would take some time to achieve otherwise.

What happens to all parties involved if Anthony says yes to New Jersey?

For Carmelo, he runs the risk of getting mired in the exact situation he’s looking escape in Denver. The Nets were a 12 win team last year, who have made modest roster upgrades at best. If they can’t follow an Anthony acquisition up with another legitimate star player, Anthony’s further away from winning than he was in Denver. For the Nuggets, they get a nice package that begins rebuilding, but keeps them modestly competitive for this year. For New Jersey, they gain the credibility that Comrade Prokhorov promised his fans, but end up with accelerated pressure to continue to upgrade the roster immediately. And for the Knicks, they end up exactly where they are right now, in the early stages of a rebuilding project with very few draft picks going forward.


I’ll have my season preview forthcoming just as soon as L’Affaire Carmelo plays itself out. This is a pretty fluid situation, so feel free to get my updated lunatic rantings at www.twitter.com/bgeltz . Giddyap. Y’all be cool.