Sunday, September 12, 2010

Plagiarizing Dave Letterman


A few months back, I wrote a column comprised only of Top Ten lists. At the time, I used the Conan O’ Brien NBC affair to disguise the fact that I am really just ripping off the King of Late Night. Well that charade ends right here and now. This column will also be comprised only of Top Ten lists. But this time, I will spare the flimsy excuse. Senor Letterman’s version of the Top Ten list will be the most concise format for me to deliver my message. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

It’s been a hectic off season and a lot has happened. There have been players and subjects that have been covered and analyzed from here to the moon and back. My other promise to you, my reader, is to complete this column without making a reference to the South Beach Super Heroes.


The Top Ten Best Value Contracts signed this off season.


10) Shaquille O’Neal Boston Celtics (2 yrs. $3 million)- Over the years, Shaq has been the subject of some of the best fat jokes I’ve ever come up with. And I know that I’m not engaging in any type of astute analysis when I say that he’s certainly playing the 17th and 18th holes of his illustrious career, as his best days are far behind him. But he has arrived at the one destination where his two biggest deficiencies will be easily hurdled. Its no secret that Shaq’s pick and roll defense has been substandard for several years. The Titanic takes sharp turns faster than Shaq rotates off a screen. And against some strong pick and roll teams (Chicago and Orlando for example), Shaq will have to nailed to the bench. However, Shaq can still score in the post. He can still play help defense at the rim. He still is a good rebounder and he obviously still has tremendous size (not a fat joke). The Celtics believe that they can win a title this season. To achieve that, they need to beat both Miami and the Lakers. Against Miami, it will be easy to hide Shaq on Miami’s Ilgauskas/Joel Anthony salad at center. And considering that L.A. runs the triangle, Shaq’s big body will be as asset because he won’t have to defend the screen and roll. The other problem with Shaq is that his ego is the size of his backside. ( sorry…couldn’t resist). One of the few teams in the league who can police Shaq’s ego is the Celtics, who have many guys who have won championship rings without Shaq. Its role player city for the big fella and he will be a pariah in his own locker room if he resists it for even a second.


9) J.J. Redick Orlando Magic (3 yrs. $20 million)- The Bulls signed Redick to an offer sheet and the Magic wisely matched the offer. Redick was the best perimeter player on the Magic in the Eastern Conference finals where they lost to Boston. He would have been an excellent fit for Chicago. But he is crucial for Orlando to maintain their status as contenders in the East. The Magic made a big bet last off season in making a significant commitment to Vince Carter as their primary offensive wing player. Carter had a decent regular season, but was wholly ineffective in the playoffs. Redick looked like a player who was tough to guard, played effective defense, and deserved to play more. His emergence is the most important factor in Orlando’s ability to improve.

8) Carlos Boozer Chicago Bulls (5 yrs. $75 million) - The Bulls managed to sign the perfect player to fit their personnel. They needed a big forward who can score in the post and excel in the pick and roll. Because of the presence of their excellent young center Joakim Noah, the big forward they would sign did not have to be a defensive force. Boozer fits that profile in every way. And the Bulls managed to get him for less than the max. He immediately upgrades the Bulls to a title contender.


7) Luke Ridnour Minnesota Timberwolves ( 4 yrs. $16 million)- Minnesota GM David Kahn is the classic example of the cow that gives milk and kicks over the can. He will make bold visionary moves ( Foye and Miller for the 5th pick in the 2009 draft) that reflect genius, and then he will do things that are inexplicably moronic, like drafting a pick and roll point guard in Johnny Flynn, then hiring Kurt Rambis as head coach who employs the triangle offense. Ridnour qualifies as a coup for Kahn. Ridnour was outstanding last year for Milwaukee. He is an excellent offensive point guard. And for the first time in his career, he was able to mask his defensive deficiencies a little bit by playing scrappy. It would be an even better move, if Kahn didn’t also have Flynn under contract and still own the rights to Ricky Rubio.


6) Ronnie Brewer Chicago Bulls (3 yrs. $12 million)- Brewer is not a player who is going to fill up the basket for Chicago, but he’s efficient and very tough defensively. He is a 50% career shooter whom averages 10 points per game for his career. He is an excellent fit for the Bulls, which is rapidly becoming a common theme here. Brewer is an excellent back court complement to Derrick Rose, and will not need to score to help the Bulls immensely. The Bulls could use a shut down perimeter defender, and Brewer should fit that bill at more than reasonable price.


5) Raja Bell Utah Jazz (3 yrs. $10 million)- Bell was an enormously important signing for Utah, in light of them losing Wesley Matthews to Portland. They traded Brewer to Memphis last season at the trade deadline for a half eaten hot dog just to get under the luxury tax. And although they drafted Gordon Hayward with the 9th pick in the first round to play a wing, Hayward will not be mistaken as a defensive stopper in his first few years. Bell gives Utah a formidable defender to guard the Kobe Bryants and Carmelo Anthonys of the world.


4) Tony Allen Memphis Grizzlies ( 3 yrs. $10 million)- After how Allen performed in the playoffs, it is surprising Memphis got him for such a bargain price. Allen was the single best perimeter defender on the Celtics in the playoffs. He guarded Kobe Bryant as well as frankly I’ve ever seen anyone guard him. I have no illusions about Allen’s offense. If he threw garbage off a pier, he’d only have a slight chance of hitting the water. But the man can shut down a scorer as good as anyone. And Memphis got him for a song. Furthermore, he’s the only important piece that Boston didn’t replace this off season.

3) Jordan Farmar New Jersey Nets ( 3 yrs. $12 million)- Farmar was not a great fit in L.A.’s triangle offense. But he was also their best defensive guard. He’s a very nice signing for the Nets considering that they struck out with all of the premium free agents. Farmar has the ability to play defense effectively from baseline to baseline. He has the ability to get into the paint offensively with his quickness and is more than capable of pushing the tempo. But most importantly for New Jersey, he gives them a viable option at point guard if they would need to move Devin Harris to bring in a premium player. The Nets did not do a lot of smart things in this off season, but Farmar is a smart signing at an efficient price.


2) Raymond Felton New York Knicks ( 3 yrs. $25 million)- When was the last time the Knicks signed a free agent and actually got themselves a bargain? Maybe Allan Houston,,,,but probably not. Most likely is all the way back to John Starks being signed in 1990 as an undrafted free agent. Felton not only survived lovable Larry Brown last year, he actually thrived under him. Felton defends very well and is very physical. He’s excellent at getting into the paint in the half court and improved his shooting percentage significantly last season my displaying a more discerning shot selection. And considering the fact that only 2 years of Felton’s deal are guaranteed at $17 million, the Knicks did very well for themselves.

1) Matt Barnes Los Angeles Lakers ( 2 yrs $3.6 million)- Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak proves for the second straight off season that when it comes to assembling championship teams, he totally gets it. Last year’s finals were a gutter war. And very frankly, Kobe Bryant was barely standing by the time it ended. Bryant needs more rest than he got this past season. Matt Barnes will not only capably fill in for Kobe, he can play a wing opposite Ron Artest with Kobe guarding a weak point guard and they can shut down anyone on the perimeter. Kupchak made the bold, correct move last year in ostensibly swapping Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest. And granted, he was dealing from a stacked deck in this Barnes thing in the respect that Barnes clearly took less to go to L.A., but Kupchak struck gold.



Top Ten Worst Value Contracts signed this off season


10) Wesley Matthews Portland Trailblazers ( 5 yrs. $34 million)- I like Matthews as a player and the fact that he is a capable and willing defender is attractive, but should he get $34 million for one year of slightly above average perimeter defense? And correct me, if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Nicholas Batum do the exact same thing for Portland…only better…and much cheaper. But then again, these are the types of decisions your organization makes when you do things like fire your general manager two hours before the draft.

9) Johan Petro New Jersey Nets ( 3 yrs. $10 million)- Petro backed up Denver bigs Kenyon Martin, Nene, and Chris “Birdman” Anderson last season. So when playoff time came and Martin and Birdman were banged up and Nene blew out his knee in Game 5 of Denver’s first round series against Utah, the Nuggets actually needed Petro to do something. Petro responded by getting outhustled by Utah’s two backup centers, Kosta Koufos and Kyrylo Fesenko. Granted, jersey didn’t pay Petro all that much, but you can find better in the Developmental League.

8) Al Harrington Denver Nuggets ( 5 yrs $34 million) - This is a partially guaranteed deal. The Nuggets have a buyout for Harrington in the 4th year, so they’re only on the hook for $28 million for 3 years. Here’s the problem. Considering that they reside on the wrong end of the luxury tax line, shouldn’t they have been positive that Carmelo Anthony was going to sign his extension before making this kind of financial commitment. Without Anthony, Denver would be smart to get young and cheap. And let’s face it, Big Al isn’t either. And the next guy Harrington defends will be his first.

7) Hakim Warrick Phoenix Suns ( 4 yrs $18 million)- Things like this happen when an owner (Robert Sarver) decides to lowball one of the best young GMs in the game ( Steve Kerr) and get his bluff called when the GM decides to just quit. I wish I was a fly on the wall in the Suns offices when someone uttered the words, “Warrick would be a good guy to replace Stoudemire…”. I don’t mean to be unkind, but this guy has struggled to stay in the rotation on 3 different teams. He is too small to be effective inside and isn’t a natural perimeter player. But the good news for the Suns is that he’ll fit right in because he doesn’t guard anyone. Just for the record, the Suns spent $18 million over 4 years for a guy that they could have gotten on a cheap one year deal or they could have allowed someone else to grossly overpay.

6) Joe Johnson Atlanta Hawks ( 6 yrs. $120 million)- Well, where do I start? I’m not sure what games Hawks ownership were watching during the playoffs but Johnson didn’t look like a franchise player that gets max money and gets a team built around him. In Johnson’s earlier years in the league, he was what Clark Kellogg likes to refer to as a stat sheet stuffer. Whatever his team needed on a particular night, he would provide. The player I saw in this past year’s playoffs was a high volume, low percentage shooter who stopped getting other people involved and didn’t defend well. Furthermore, Atlanta has to make a major financial decision on center Al Horford very soon. If they can’t pay Horford because of the absurd money they paid Johnson, they’ll have taken a strong hand and burned it up. Atlanta’s future runs through their athletic bigs, Josh Smith and Horford. Letting Johnson go would not have been a great P.R. move in Atlanta, but it would have been the proper long term move for the organization, as long as they were committed to keeping Horford. They may have taken a step or two back this season, but they would have had a promising, flexible future. Instead, they’ll occupy NBA no mans land ( 5-7 playoff seed), with nothing but downside in the East.

5) Chris Duhon Orlando Magic (4 yrs. $15 million)- In Duhon’s two years with the Knicks, he represented everything that was wrong with the system New York was attempting to run. He wasn’t fast enough to push the ball, didn’t shoot well enough to be considered a threat, didn’t guard enough to stop anyone, and didn’t take care of the basketball very well. Orlando’s big problem in their playoff loss to Boston was their inability to push the tempo effectively. If they were planning on signing a point guard to complement and relieve Jameer Nelson, they would have been better off committing this money to Jordan Farmar. Instead they get a player who’s overmatched against every guard he’ll go up against on Boston, Miami, or Chicago. And if Orlando wants to get to the finals again, they’ll have to beat two of those teams. Chris Duhon hurts much more than he helps.

4) David Lee Golden State Warriors (6 yrs. $80 million)- My favorite expression to describe David Lee is that if you handed him a sword, a red hat, and a uniform, he couldn’t guard Buckingham Palace. Lee is a player who looks wonderful on a stat sheet. But he doesn’t defend and doesn’t ever box out. His rebounding numbers are emptier than Rex Ryan’s plate. And the worse thing for Golden State is that they gave the Knicks promising young big man Anthony Randolph for the right to obscenely over pay Lee. The good news is that Lee’s defense won’t look unfamiliar to the Warriors. I can think of many many other ways to burn $80 million that are a lot more fun.

3) Richard Jefferson San Antonio Spurs (4 yrs. $39 million)- When I saw Richard Jefferson had opted out of his last year with the Spurs at $15 million, I thought Jefferson had either lost his mind or was an enormously stupid egomaniac. But when I saw what the Spurs decided to pay him, it became blatantly obvious that the fix was in. San Antonio GM R.C. Buford is one of the best in the business. He would never bid against himself for a player who appeared to be such a poor fit for the Spurs. Head coach Gregg Popovich made it obvious that he had very little patience for Jefferson’s game. Jefferson is a curious story. He made his way in this league by being an incredibly athletic wing player who was an extremely effective perimeter defender. He would attack the rim in the half court and score frequently on the break. As soon as he got his big contract from the Nets he became a high volume perimeter shooter who treated defense as a convenience. Last season the Spurs saw both Jeffersons. The Spurs were evidently desperate to get under the luxury tax and give Tim Duncan two more chances to run at a title by keeping anyone they had to on the board. This is a very obvious “wink-wink” deal between Jefferson and the Spurs considering how out of character a signing like this is for Buford. For the Spurs’ sake, I hope they’re getting the good Jefferson because $38 million is a lot of coin for a guy who has the potential to be a regular inhabitant in Popovich’s dog house.

2) Amir Johnson Toronto Raptors (5 yrs. $32 million)- I understand the Raptors were a little desperate to replace their South Beach Super Hero, but Johnson is not and never will be the answer. Although he can score inside, he commits fouls at an alarming rate. Furthermore, he’s a black hole in the post. Once the ball goes in, it never goes out. He is incredibly unproven and very frankly, has done nothing to justify a contract this size. And after drafting a promising young big in the first round in North Carolina’s Ed Davis, I am completely puzzled as to what Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo was thinking in so grossly overpaying Johnson. This is not the type of signing that will help the Raptors recover quickly from the loss of you know who.

1) Darko Milicic Minnesota Timberwolves ( 4 yrs. $20 million)- Minnesota GM David Kahn has been as maligned as any other executive in the game. The way I see it, Kahn’s biggest issue is that he gets too bold for his own good. A wise man once told me that there is a fine line between brilliance and stupidity and no other personnel man straddles that line as awkwardly. When Kahn went out on a limb in the 2009 draft and selected point guards Ricky Rubio and Johnny Flynn back to back, I thought there was something visionary about it, even though he was widely ridiculed. The fact that Kahn drafted two pick and roll point guards seemed to vacate his mind, when he hired Kurt Rambis as his head coach after the draft. Rambis is a Phil Jackson disciple who employs a triangle offense which uses very little pick and roll ( as I alluded to earlier). Flynn has been less than useless and Rubio has stayed far away, which brings us to Darko…..
Milicic’s claim to fame is that he was the bust in the 2003 draft that brought the NBA some of its biggest stars. Milicic was selected in front of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade. Milicic has had a miserable career so far. He couldn’t crack the rotation last season on the 29 win Knicks. He was traded to Minnesota at the deadline and averaged 8 points and 5 ½ rebounds per game playing an average of 25 minutes. Kahn got himself so excited by this, all because Milicic was actually putting forth effort on the basketball court, that he decided that he had to have him back. Kahn wasn’t bidding against himself. Milicic certainly could have made this type of money in Europe. But it’s inexplicable that Kahn wouldn’t let him go. Worse than that, The Milicic signing created such a logjam in Minnesota’s front court, that Kahn was forced to move Al Jefferson for cents on the dollar. My father has an expression for GMs like Kahn. He could screw up a one car funeral procession.


Top Ten Observations taken from the Summer League and World Championships


10) It looks like one year in Greece did wonders for Linas Kleiza. Kleiza looked like a different player athletically in the World Championships than he did two seasons ago when he played for Denver. He was the biggest reason for Lithuania’s success in this tournament. If he plays like that for the Raptors this season, they’ll have gotten a bargain for 4 years and $18 million.

9) If I’m Phil Jackson, Mitch Kupchak, and the rest of the Lakers’ front office, I’m not exactly getting warm and fuzzies watching Lamar Odom play for the U.S. in the World Championships. Don’t get me wrong. Odom has been extremely effective and played his role very well. U.S. coach Mike Krzyzewski has needed Odom to play center and Odom has been predictably excellent has the Team USA’s main big man. What concerns me about Odom is that he looks tired on the court. He definitely doesn’t appear in peak condition and it appears as though playing competitively through June and then restarting again in August has tremendously fatigued him. Odom is not as young as springtime anymore. If Big Chief Triangle is watching, he’s understanding the importance of limiting Odom’s minutes early in the season to give the Lakers the best chance to three-peat.

8) The best point guard I saw in Vegas was undoubtedly Ty Lawson of Denver. Lawson definitely hit a rookie wall last year in Denver. But I will repeat what I’ve believed about Lawson since his junior year at North Carolina. He has the potential to be one of the best 5 point guards in the NBA and I think that ascension will begin this coming season.

7) I was completely surprised with how well Ed Davis played for Toronto in Vegas. Davis was a high potential, average production player in college. He was projected to be a top 10 pick in the 2010 draft, but ended up falling to 13. My initial thoughts on Davis were that he wasn’t going to be strong enough to play in the NBA. But he looked anything but in Vegas. Granted, it was only Vegas, but Davis looked like he has what it takes to cut it as a legitimate big forward. We’ll see what the season holds, but I’m preparing my mea culpa…..

6) As long as I’m setting up mea culpas, I might as well take a minute and hurt my arm as I pat myself on my ample back. In my draft preview, I went against the grain and called for Philadelphia to take Kentucky center DeMarcus Cousins. After watching summer league action in Vegas and Orlando, the Sixers are probably wondering the same thing. Philly’s pick, the second pick in the draft Evan Turner did not look good in Orlando. Granted, it’s only the summer league and these players are relative babies in the basketball world, but after seeing Cousins show off some perimeter skills we didn’t see at Kentucky, if I had passed on him for anyone but John Wall, I’d be physically ill. Turner still might be a very good NBA player, but despite Cousins occasional bouts with immaturity, big men with his type of skill don’t come along that often. And as far as Cousins anger issues go, I am going to invoke the words of former Georgetown coach, John Thompson. When asked about Cousins, Thompson observed that it’s much easier to dial down a young player’s angry edge than try to create an angry edge on a guy who doesn’t have one. Read the last line again and think Derrick Favors.

5) As those of you who regularly read this space would know, if Jeff Van Gundy was a cult leader, I wouldn’t only be a member. I would be his lead recruiter. I’ve heard Jeff discuss on a few different occasions how impressed he was with Nicholas Batum of the Portland Trailblazers. Batum has been injured for significant portions of the last two seasons. In watching Batum play for France in this summer’s FIBA World Championships, I’ve gotten to see exactly what Jeff is talking about. Batum is an extremely disruptive perimeter defender. At his best, Batum is so active that he creates turnovers and transition baskets. If he can find a way to stay healthy in the NBA, he will provide an excellent wing complement to Brandon Roy in Portland. As usual, Jeff knows the gospel.

4) One of the more compelling games of the World Championships was the United States’ slim victory over Brazil during the round robin phase of the tournament. And the most impressive thing about that game was the way Brazil big man Tiago Splitter gave the U.S. big men fits. Splitter has not yet played in the NBA, but was signed to a three year deal by the San Antonio Spurs. Splitter looks to be the best big man complement the Spurs have had since David Robinson. He has no issue playing physical. He appears to be a legitimate 6’10”. And he plays well in the post, both offensively and defensively. He is a quick player inside, normally making his post move very quickly when he gets the ball. He will be an enormous help to San Antonio and just may be the reason that the Spurs become the Lakers chief competition to win the West.

3) Besides for Pau Gasol. Ricky Rubio and Rudy Fernandez are the most celebrated players hailing from Spain. After watching these two play in the World Championships, I really do not understand why. Rubio is a skilled ball handler, a terrific passer, and looks great of those little running one handed shots in the lane. However, he is one of the worst over-dribblers I’ve ever seen and is a very poor defender. His defense is so bad, I wouldn’t let him guard my spot in line at the bank. Rubio may make a nice sideshow in the NBA, but he has a long way to go before he’s a big time point guard. Fernandez can shoot from long range, score in bunches, and jump out of the gym. But he plays undisciplined, turnover prone, stupid basketball. His shot selection is garbage and his effort comes and goes way too much for my liking. He also treats defense as an occasional convenience. He supposedly isn’t happy in Portland with head coach Nate McMillan. Frankly, he strikes me as a guy who may not be happy anywhere.

2) The most improved player I saw this entire summer was Toronto guard Demar Derozan. Derozan looked terrific playing on the Raptors entry in Vegas. Admittedly, I was not a big fan of Derozan when Toronto drafted him last year after playing only his freshman year at USC. Derozan was (and still is) extremely athletic , but was very raw and immature. The player I saw in Vegas was anything but raw and immature. Not only has Derozan worked on his perimeter shooting, he’s worked on his pull up game as well. And he has learned relatively quickly how his tremendous athleticism can translate into superior defense if applied properly. If Derozan can carry this momentum over into the season, he’ll be a big help to the Raptors. After the summer performances of Derozan, Ed Davis and Linas Kleiza, the Raptors may be able to recover from the loss of their South Beach Super Hero pretty quickly. ( I know I promised not to reference the Super Heroes, but I didn’t say his name!!!)

1) I discovered this summer that it is truly impossible to love basketball and not get thoroughly excited watching Kevin Durant play. It’s not news that Durant was the best player to set foot on the court in the World Championships. Frankly, there was no one else even close. The two things that I found amazing about Durant were his killer instinct when games are on the line and his profound commitment to being the best defender he can be. It seems like Durant discovered what it takes to be an elite defender while defending Kobe Bryant in Game 3 of the first round of this past season’s playoffs. Durant smothered Kobe at crunch time and hasn’t looked back. And offensively, he has the unique ability to assume his team’s primary scoring responsibility taking very few bad shots. Watching Durant’s ascension into superstardom will be one of the most interesting stories to watch this coming season and that includes a certain team that plays in a state that borders the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Since I’m coming dangerously close to breaking my promise about not mentioning the Miami Unmentionables, I’m going to wrap this up. Giddyap. Y’all be cool.

You can follow me on Twitter @bgeltz.

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