Friday, October 23, 2009

Lets get it on with the West.....





Northwest Division (in predicted order of finish)



Denver Nuggets- They had a great year last year making it to the Western Conference finals. and the good news is that they got better. They brought in Arron Afflalo to replace Dahntay Jones, which will be an upgrade at a better price. But most importantly, they traded for a first round draft pick and selected the apple of my eye, Ty Lawson. Lawson will bring a speed dimension that the Nuggets didn't have last year and will enhance the Nuggets when they're speeding up the tempo. The bad news is that the Lakers and the Spurs both improved more than the Nuggets, so getting further than last year will most likely be a pipe dream.





Portland Trailblazers- The Blazers learned a lot in their first round loss to the Houston Rockets last season. They're a young team who will need to play more disciplined to advance in the postseason. They signed veteran point guard Andre Miller as a free agent. Miller is not the perfect complement to superstar Brandon Roy in the back court. But he's also a player who has never won in his career, and this is a chance to win. With the Blazers just signing LaMarcus Aldridge to a rich 5 year deal, they've got a core in tact for the next 3 years with Aldridge, Miller, and Roy. I have faith in head coach Nate McMillan's ability to make it work. With that said, that may not generally translate into making it further than last year. Its a deep, difficult Western Conference and Portland will get better, but this will be a tough year to break through.



Utah Jazz- The Jazz brought the same core group back with the addition of first round pick guard Eric Maynor, who looks ready. Head coach Jerry Sloan will be challenged in handling the situation at power forward. Carlos Boozer is on the last year of his contract and will be on the trading block until he gets dealt. Paul Millsap just signed a 4 year $32 million deal and is clearly the Jazz' future at the position. Sloan is a hall of famer, but he may have his hands full with this. Ultimately, the best the Jazz can hope for this season is to be cannon fodder for either the Spurs or the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs.



Oklahoma City Thunder- The Thunder will certainly be improved. And Kevin Durant is a star in the making. However, before we send Durant to Springfield, Massachusetts, can we see him learn how to guard someone? The Thunder are young and athletic, but the West is too deep to envision them creeping into the playoffs. They have a nice core of Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden, but they're just not there yet.



Minnesota Timberwolves- Minnesota GM David Kahn has taken a lot of heat in the media for his gutsy move to trade for an extra lottery pick and use both picks on point guards. I continue to believe that he did the right thing for the organization long term. With Rubio staying in Spain for a few years, Kahn has the luxury to hand Jonny Flynn the keys and see what's he's got. If Flynn, works out, then he's got a great trade chip in Rubio to wheel for whatever they need. And if Flynn doesn't work out, hand the keys to Rubio. Unfortunately, none of that will translate into a lot of improvement for this year. Another year out of the playoffs will mean another year in the lottery and the ability to add another productive member to the rotation. Minnesota has got themselves on the right track to be competitive in 2-3 years. And the added bonus is that the only big money they have committed long term is to franchise cornerstone power forward Al Jefferson.


Southwest Division (in predicted order of finish)


San Antonio Spurs- I give the Spurs front office and ownership a lot of credit. They reloaded to make one last run at a title with an aging superstar. The Spurs are smart enough to realize that Tim Duncan is a once in a generation star and you need to make hay while the sun shines. If Duncan's minutes are properly economized in the regular season, he still has enough gas in the tank to be a force in the playoffs. The Spurs traded Kurt Thomas' and Bruce Bowen's expiring contracts for Richard Jefferson. If Jefferson can revert back to his early career habits of quality shot selection and stifling perimeter defense, he's a difference maker for the Spurs. Of course, the Jefferson we saw in Milwaulee and at the tail end in New Jersey, is a player who can implode the Spurs' title hopes. The good news for San Antonio fans is that Spur head coach Gregg Popovich will keep RJ on a short leash. The Spurs also added Antonio McDyess as a free agent and had the wonderful good fortune of having power forward DeJuan Blair fall to them in the 2nd round of the draft. McDyess and Blair will take minutes and pressure of Duncan in a way that Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto never could. ANd as good as all that sounds, they still need to have Duncan and Manu Ginobili healthy for the playoffs or its all for naught. Count on seeing the Spurs playing into the end of May.

Dallas Mavericks- Here's another team in a foot race with Father Time. This past offseason, in making every effort to maximize their title contention aspirations around star power forward Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavericks re-signed 36 year old point guard Jason Kidd, signed free agent forward, 31 year old Shawn Marion, and signed 32 year old free agent forward Tim Thomas. Dallas has done great job of surrounding Nowitzki with the right type of players to win with. With the addition of power forward Drew Gooden, they have the ability to be good going big or small. I'm not the biggest Jason Kidd fan at this stage of his career, but there's no disputing he fits very well here. And very frankly, the worst thing the Mavericks have going against them is the presence of the Lakers and Spurs in the same conference. They've improved significantly, but for this season, it won't be enough.


New Orleans Hornets- Another team that managed to improve in the highly competitive West. Unfortunately, they've got a major problem that the other top teams in the West don't have. The Hornets completely quit on their coach Byron Scott last year during a home playoff game, losing to Denver in excess of 50 points. And with Scott in the last year of his contract and some players openly questioning newly acquired Emeka Okafor's current injury, which has kept him out of most of the preseason, the Hornets are not exactly a picture of team unity. The Hornets' best chance to make a run in the West will be to dump Scott midseason, considering he's on the last year of his contract. Still, the best they can hope for is winning one playoff round.

Houston Rockets- As impressive as the Rockets were in last year's playoffs, this is a very different team without Yao Ming and Ron Artest. Yao will sit out the year with a foot injury and Artest signed with the Lakers as a free agent. Houston GM Daryl Morey would have you believe that the free agent signing of Trevor Ariza from the Lakers represents an upgrade over Artest. Morey would be mistaken. Artest may be certifiably insane, but he was the straw that stirred the drink for the Rockets on both ends of the floor last season. Ariza is a very nice complementary player. The Rockets will take a step back this year, but once they get Yao back for next season, I expect them to contend in the West all over again.

Memphis Grizzlies- If the game were played with 3 basketballs and teams needed parole officers instead of head coaches, the Grizzlies would be set. But in the current NBA landscape, this team is a mess. This was a team plagued last season by the offensive selfishness of young players Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo. So GM Chris Wallace's answer was to bring in two of the biggest chuckers in the league in Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson . Wallace will regret the day he passed on Carlos Boozer's expiring deal to take on Randolph for three years at the league max. Matter of fact, Wallace will end up regretting it before the calendar turns to December. This is an impossible situation for head coach Lionel Hollins to succeed. Its no secret why this organization has been such a mess, for so long.


Pacific Division (in predicted order of finish)


Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers hierarchy has made it very clear that they are interested in cementing a dynasty after willing their first title in their post-Shaq era. They let Trevor Ariza go sign with Houston as a free agent and committed the same money to Ron Artest. Regardless of whta you read anywhere else, this is an upgrade in every way, Artest's off court insanity not withstanding. Artest is a team player on the court and can carry the load for long stretches on both ends of the floor, which is huge in keeping Kobe Bryant fresh for playoff time. Keep in mind, he led the Rockets without Yao Ming to push this same Laker team to 7 games in the same round of last year's playoffs. Also, Artest will HELP team chemistry on the Lakers. Please allow me to explain. The Lakers chose to bring back my man crush, Lamar Odom for four years at a minimal paycut, which was his best offer. The worst kept secret on the Lakers is the not so terrific relationship between Odom and Bryant. That relationship virtually torpedoed the Lakers in the 2008 finals against the Celtics. Artest is Odom's old friend back from AAU days in New York. Bryant oppenly campaigned to have Artest brought in and admittedly has a very good realtionship with Ron. Ron can actually build a bridge between Kobe and Lamar. And besides, what does Lamar have to be unhappy about? He won a title, got paid, gets to play with his old friend and shares a bed every night with my favorite Kardashian sister. In summary, there is no way anyone beats the Lakers come playoff time....and they may win 70 games in the regular season on their way.


Phoenix Suns- This is a team who's laying in the weeds a little bit. The trading of the artist formerly known as Shaquille O'Neal is a clear case of addition by subtraction. Shaq slowed the Suns down and confused their indentity. This is now a team with something to prove. Amare Stoudemire is in a contract year. Steve Nash and Grant Hill would like to prove they're not finished. Jason Richardson is a good fit in their up tempo system. And first round pick Earl Clark replaces what they lost with trading Boris Diaw for Richardson last season. Also, 2nd year center Robin Lopez (Brook's sister....I mean brother...) is a much better complement to Stoudemire in their up tempo system that Shaq ever was. At the very least, I expect the Suns to make the playoffs and be a royal pain in someone's rump come mid May.


Los Angeles Clippers- Lots of good offseason news for the Clips. They were blessed in the #1 pick in the draft and they were lucky to enough to have a star in the making for them in Blake Griffin. And GM Mike Dunleavy was able to unload roster and salary cap albatross in Zach Randolph, turning them into Craig Smith and Sebastian Telfair, two productive bench players. He was also smart enough to keep Marcus Camby for the last year of his contract. The problem is that once the season starts, the team will be coached by head coach Mike Dunleavy, who does a substandard job when compared to GM Mike Dunleavy. Dunleavy truly lost these guys last year, and most everyone is back. Extricating Zach Randolph will help, but it won't fix everything. Dunleavy had major problems with Baron Davis, Al Thornton, and Ricky Davis among others, and its naive to believe that they'll go away. They will be improved, but the best it will result in will be the 8th seed in the playoffs and canon fodder for the Lakers.


Sacramento Kings- They're a long way from looking good, but its starting to appear they're on the right track. They selected Tyreke Evans with the 4th pick of the first round. Evans is a freakish athlete thats got star written all over him. When you combine that with their first round pick last year, forward Jason Thompson, they now have some building blocks. They also are going to only have one big money player after this season in Kevin Martin, who's only 26. The bad news is that they probably won't be much better this year, but they will be back in the lottery to continue to build.


Golden State Warriors- This has become such a dysfunctional situation and from all appearances, it didn't have to be. The Warriors have drafted pretty well. In the last three years, they've selected Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Anthony Randolph, and Stephen Curry, who are all 23 or younger. But Don Nelson's handling of this whole Stephen Jackson situation is providing a damaging distraction. The longer Jackson's trade demand goes unmet, the more he poisons the culture among the young players. Nellie should have seen this coming. If you buy a house on a golf course, don't act surprised if golf balls fly through your windows. If you try to rebuild and keep Stephen Jackson as your veteran presence, you'll have golf balls flying through your windows. I hate to say it, because Don Nelson has been a coach and an executive in this league for a long time and has had plenty of success, but the sooner Warrior owner Chris Cohan turns the organization over to someone else, the better. It will be another year out of the playoffs, but their success this season will be predicated on how well the young players develop together.


Predicted Playoff Seedings

1) L.A. Lakers
2) San Antonio
3) Denver
4) Dallas
5) Portland
6) Phoenix
7) New Orleans
8) Utah

Final Four

L.A. Lakers over Dallas
San Antonio over Denver

Western Conference Finals

L.A. Lakers over San Antonio

NBA Finals

L.A. Lakers over Orlando ( 7 games)- I hate to predict a repeat. It almost appears lazy. But the bottom line is that the two best teams from last season are the two that improved the most. Y'all be cool. Giddyap.

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