Western Conference Preview- Oh Baby! Part 2


Doing a Western Conference Preview for this coming season is almost like throwing darts at a board. There is a wealth of good teams and the degrees of separation are miniscule. These circumstances do not make me any less opinionated. What fun would that be? Let’s get it on.


Northwest Division (in predicted order of finish)


Oklahoma City Thunder- The Thunder did not make any significant roster upgrades in the off season unless you count Cole Aldrich…and I don’t. The Thunder are another one of those teams who will need to improve by getting improvement from individual players on their roster. Fortunately, for them, they’re loaded with these types of players. The most obvious example is Kevin Durant. Durant’s domination in the World Championships over the summer was stunning. Besides being able to score at will, his defense as ascended to a level where he is a shutdown perimeter defender. The Thunder will be better because Durant will be a lot better. It’s almost boring to gush about Durant because of the volume of superlatives that apply. As of six months ago, I wasn’t completely sold on him as player who can lead his team to a title….oops. On the other hand, it’s plenty exciting to gush about Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook. Westbrook was virtually unguardable at times during the Thunder’s first round playoff loss to the Lakers last season. But he added an entirely new dimension to his game over the summer in the World Championships when he emerged as one of the U.S. team’s best defenders. Keep in mind that Durant is only 22 and Westbrook is only 21. The Thunder have a big decision to make when the season ends on forward Jeff Green’s expiring contract. My call is to let him go and look to get bigger and stronger up front. Green will not be cheap, and the Thunder have the type of core that would be attractive to a veteran big who can help get this team over the hump. There are too many nights for Oklahoma City where Green is overmatched by a bigger or stronger player. (think Dirk, Boozer, Gasol etc…) Even in this day and age of basketball, a team still needs quality size to be a champion. Because of that, the best the Thunder can hope for this season is a trip to the Conference finals, if that.


Portland Trailblazers- From a developmental standpoint, the Blazers have not made much progress the last two seasons. Despite a young talented core, the Blazers have not been able to make it out of the first round of the playoffs two years running. Their undoing has been primarily due to injuries, but there have certainly been some chemistry issues along the way. This season’s version of the Blazers is probably the deepest we’ve seen of late. However, all of the same questions remain. Can Greg “Benjamin Button” Oden stay healthy? Are Andre Miller and Brandon Roy going to figure out how to work well together? Can Nicholas Batum stay healthy enough to stay on the court? Will Rudy Fernandez shot selection, shoddy defense, penchant for turnovers, and general unhappiness be a distraction? Can head coach Nate McMillan keep everyone happy, healthy, and together? The favorable collective outcomes of these questions will dictate how successful the Blazers season will be. I see these questions being answered as follows: There is no way Oden can stay healthy. After the pictures of him on the internet surfaced earlier this year, Oden is actually more likely to appear in an X-rated movie before he plays in an NBA final. I think Miller is too surly to alter his game enough to fit in with Roy. I actually do believe that Batum can stay healthy enough to stay on the court. And he will undoubtedly be a defensive force. Rudy Fernandez’ entire presence will be a continuing distraction for Portland. Portland’s stubbornness in not cutting their losses with Fernandez could haunt them all season. Especially when you factor in that Fernandez isn’t all that good. And I don’t think that McMillan can keep everyone happy or healthy. But McMillan will keep them together…together enough to make the playoffs with a relatively early exit.


Utah Jazz- For a team that made some key changes in personnel, this year’s Jazz team will look an awful lot like last year’s team. The Jazz chose not to re-sign Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, and Wesley Matthews. And they replaced those three with Al Jefferson, first round pick Gordon Hayward, and veteran Raja Bell. Jefferson is not as good as Boozer, but he will replace Boozer’s scoring. Hayward will probably not be as good a shooter as Korver, but his game is more diverse and he’s got a great future. Bell is a better defender than Matthews, but much older and much more injury prone. The net effect of all of this as far as the win column is concerned is neutral. With Jerry Sloan as the head coach, this team will always defend and play hard. And with Deron Williams as the starting point guard, this team will not have a problem scoring points. But the bottom line is that the Jazz are just another good team in the West. Because of the depth in the West, the best the Jazz can do is win one playoff round, just like last season.


Denver Nuggets- In the final scene of the movie Animal House, the Deltas systematically destroy the homecoming parade. Kevin Bacon plays a college student who is working at the parade as a security guard in one of his first movie roles ever. As the parade is slowly becoming a total disaster, Bacon repeatedly utters the term, “all is well, remain calm.” Each time he makes this declaration, there is more and more panic in his voice. The final time that Bacon recites this mantra, he screams it as he stomps his feet…about 3 seconds before he gets trampled by a mob. I impart this little anecdote because each and every time I’ve heard Denver head coach George Karl comment about the upcoming season, he sounds more and more like Kevin Bacon in Animal House. This is an organization that is at a crossroads, to say the least. Carmelo Anthony wants out, and for all intents and purposes has given the Nuggets only one destination where he would be willing to sign an extension. And since the Knicks are painfully aware that they are the apple of Anthony’s eye, they have steadfastly refused to offer Denver their best young asset in Danilo Gallinari, although there are rumblings that the Knicks are softening that stance. Denver’s continued dalliance with New Jersey is only to create the illusion of leverage against the Knicks. As distasteful as it is to Karl, the Nuggets need to get rid of Anthony sooner rather than later. I don’t blame George for trying to keep this together for another run. The Nuggets were a few mental meltdowns away from actually knocking off the Lakers in the 2009 West final. And Karl missed last year’s playoffs while he battled cancer. The point that seems to be eluding Karl is that this Nugget team is not the same team he went to the finals with, although most of the names and faces are the same. Point guard Chauncey Billups is almost two years older and is not the athlete he was. Kenyon Martin’s knee has gotten progressively worse and probably isn’t getting better, which severely compromises him. He won’t be starting the season. Chris “Birdman” Anderson’s athleticism has been compromised by a chronic bad knee. He won’t be starting the season either. And starting center Nene is recovering from knee surgery to repair a tear he sustained in last year’s playoffs. Heck, Karl doesn’t even work for the same guy anymore. GM Mark Warkentien was replaced by 39 year old Masai Ujiri. Warkentien, after winning Executive of the Year in 2009, got canned with assistant GM Rex Chapman for fighting with one another. There is a good reason that Anthony wants to leave. The more they wait to move him, the harder it will be. And, when that is done, they need to get working on moving Billups. They’ll be a big market for him. The faster Denver breaks it down, the faster they can turn it around. Denver needs to understand a stark reality of today;s NBA. If you’re not competing for a title, you need to be rebuilding. They’ve got a great start with second year point guard Ty Lawson. In the meantime, no matter how fast or slow Denver starts to rebuild, they will have a representative in May in Secaucus, NJ anxiously hoping to win the draft lottery.



Minnesota Timberwolves- Unfortunately for Minnesota, all talk about the state of their franchise starts and ends with GM David Kahn. My mother would describe Kahn as the cow who gives milk and kicks over the can. For every decent or bold move Kahn makes, he then makes a counter move that is so asinine, he could work in Congress. Last season’s version of Kahn’s madness had to do with drafting not one, but two pick and roll point guards, then hiring a coach (Kurt Rambis) who employs the triangle offense. This year’s version of the rollercoaster known as Kahn contained the Michael Beasley heist, Darko Milicic’s grand larceny, the trading of Al Jefferson for a dirty pair of sweat socks, and the efficient signing of Luke Ridnour. In spite of Kahn…and because of him, the Timberwolves have accumulated some interesting assets. Wesley Johnson, Kevin Love, the aforementioned Beasley, Johnny Flynn, Corey Brewer, and the rights to Ricky Rubio is an interesting core for a resourceful GM to work from. And considering the fact that there is absolutely no way that the Wolves can even compete to approach the playoffs, there will be another lottery pick in the offing as well. Minnesota owner Glen Taylor would be very wise after this season, but before the draft, to thank Mr. Kahn for his service to the organization and bring in a GM who can allow the franchise to rebuild in earnest. With experienced names like Warkentien, Kevin Pritchard, and Chris Mullin out there (notice I left out Isiah Thomas), Taylor is cheating his fans if he keeps Kahn on the job too much longer.



Southwest Division (in predicted order of finish)

Dallas Mavericks- Dallas ended last season with a bitterly disappointing first round playoff loss to the San Antonio Spurs. In the end, Dallas just didn’t play defense well enough to conquer an experienced unit like the Spurs. The Mavericks are a veteran group with a good coach in Rick Carlisle. Their GM Donnie Nelson chose not to overhaul the roster, but to add to it in exactly the spots the Mavericks needed. Nelson added often injured, but very effective center Tyson Chandler. He also re-signed center Brendan Haywood, who they acquired at last year’s trade deadline from Washington. He also traded for a late first round pick and used it on South Florida guard Dominique Jones, who should make their rotation. Chandler and Haywood are both excellent complements to Dirk Nowitzki in the front court. Jones adds to a very deep stable of guards. All of the components are there for Dallas to make a run at the Lakers for conference supremacy. The most important element for the Mavericks is how well Carlisle coaches them up. First off, he needs to realize that their biggest weakness is perimeter defense. Too often in the playoffs, he went with a small lineup, which hurt them badly on defense. His two best perimeter defenders are Caron Butler and Shawn Marion and he rarely, if ever, plays them together. I read a quote last week from Jason Kidd where he said he would welcome having his minutes reduced. If he’s telling the truth, which is always a question with Kidd, this is a good thing, because Kidd has become a defensive liability. Carlisle spent way too much time with Kidd and Jason Terry on the court together, which is like laying out the red carpet to the hoop for opposing guards. Neither of them are one of the Mavericks’ five best defenders. Dallas has the potential to be tremendously successful this coming season. But if Carlisle does not put a premium on defense in managing his rotation, we’re looking at another first round exit. I’m betting Ranger Rick gets it and the Mavs make it all the way to the West finals and give the Lakers all they can handle.


Houston Rockets- The Rockets are one of the harder teams to preview in the league. I know it’s not brain surgery, but their fortunes this season are completely tied to the health of center Yao Ming. Yao provides a uniquely dominant physical presence on both ends of the floor. The Rockets are a skilled, deep team. But Yao makes them special. The West is a very deep, competitive conference. The Rockets without Yao are a bubble playoff team that most likely fall to the wrong side. However, with Yao, they’re a threat to go to the finals. Their GM, Daryl Morey, had a relatively quiet off season. He bailed out of last year’s off season mistake which was the free agent swap of Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza. Despite the fact that Artest is truly out of his mind, he was an enormous defensive presence for the Lakers and frankly they would not have won the title without him. Ariza ended up being a high volume, low percentage shooter who dominated the ball and seemed to forget everything that made him an effective role player. Morey moved him to New Orleans in the off season and brought back Courtney Lee from the Nets in a 4 way deal. Lee was miscast in New Jersey as a starting wing. He will be used much more effectively in Houston as a backup to wings Kevin Martin and Shane Battier. Morey also reinforced his front court by signing forward Luis Scola to a new, rich contract. He also added center Brad Miller, which should be an enormous help to Yao. The Rockets plan on only playing Yao 24 minutes a game this season to lower his incidence of injury. Miller is the perfect guy to split that time with Yao. He handles the ball well out at the high post like Yao, and plays with a mean streak that the Rockets lost when they decided to let Artest leave. I’m a buyer on the Rockets, largely because Morey has put a plan in place for Yao to be available at the times Houston needs him most. I’ve got the Rockets winning at least one round in the playoffs and will be a tough out for anyone, including the World Champion Lakers.


San Antonio Spurs- On the surface, San Antonio appeared to have upgraded their chances to compete to win the West. And although I credit GM R.C. Buford with a productive off season, the Spurs may have the same issues that plagued them the last few years. You see, the Spurs aren’t exactly as young as springtime. Their two best players, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, are 34 and 33 respectively. And their 28 year old point guard, Tony Parker, get hurt a lot more than the Spurs would like. Besides retaining Richard Jefferson ( for an absurd amount of money), their two big off season moves were the drafting on first round pick, wing player James Anderson and the signing of Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter. Anderson is an athletic young wing with an NBA body and some scoring ability. Splitter is an impressive 25 year old big man who can clearly take pressure off of the aging Duncan. The problem is that Splitter has a history of not staying healthy himself. And, sure enough, he’s already on the shelf in the preseason with a bad foot. For the Spurs to challenge the Lakers in the West, they are going to need to be blessed with good health for a good part of the season and especially the playoffs. To me, that’s a tall order. Head coach Greg Popovich will do everything he can to keep his older guys and injury prone players fresh. However, I think there are just too many variables for the Spurs from a health standpoint. As cynical as it sounds, I don’t see things falling the Spurs way. That championship window that was open for so long has officially closed. They’ll make the playoffs. But that’s right where it will end.


Memphis Grizzlies- Since the Grizzlies disastrous February 1, 2008 trade of Pau Gasol, they have appeared to be a hopeless franchise. Their GM, Chris Wallace, hasn’t exactly built a reputation as a skilled organizational architect. And as much fun as it would be to fill my Memphis preview with Chris Wallace jokes, I can’t. The Grizzlies have actually become a good team. They made excellent progress last season in jumping to 40 wins. They were competing for a playoff spot until they ran out of steam late. Wallace made a bold move in trading for power forward Zach Randolph. Randolph is always a risk to run afoul with the law and has never been too fond of passing or defending. But Randolph is an animal in the post and is an effective rebounder. And Wallace was able to bring him while he’s looking for a new contract. The fruits of Wallace’s much maligned Gasol trade, Pau’s younger brother Marc Gasol, has developed into a quality center. The Grizzlies re-signed their best player Rudy Gay to a 5 year max deal. It’s a lot of money for Gay, but it gave them some much needed continuity. When they combine that with O.J. Mayo and their two new athletic wings, free agent signing Tony Allen and first round draft pick Xavier Henry, the Grizzlies have some depth and can run the floor with anybody. Take this one to the bank as my surprise West playoff team. Ladies and gentlemen, here are your 2010-2011 Memphis Grizzlies.


New Orleans Hornets- There’s a scene in the movie Good Fellas where Joe Pesci’s character, Tommy DeVito is on his way to get “made”, which is a rite of passage for a young gangster who establishes himself. On the way to his ceremony, Tommy is as happy as can be as if all is right with the world. Unfortunately for Tommy, when he arrives to his ceremony, he ends up with a bullet in the skull. He had no idea that pending doom was on the other side of the door. When I look at this year’s version of the Hornets, Tommy’s fate comes to mind. The Hornets are a team who is absolutely desperate to keep their star point guard Chris Paul. Paul requested to be traded this past off season and the Hornets managed to get themselves a “stay of execution” so to speak. They convinced Paul that they could assemble a good enough core around him to be competitive in the West. Paul does not have a ton of leverage right now because he still has two years on his contract, so he rescinded the request and is playing the role of good soldier. The Hornets attempted to placate Paul by trading Paul’s backup and heir apparent, Darren Collison, to Indiana in a 4 way deal that brought Trevor Ariza to New Orleans. Ariza still has 4 more years left on his deal. And if he plays like he did in Houston last season, the Hornets have created more problems than they’ve solved. Furthermore, when Paul lifts the stay of execution which will most likely be next off season, the Hornets gave up their insurance policy. If they keep Collison and bring back a good package for Paul, they never have to bottom out and they’re younger and cheaper. Instead, when Paul decides he wants to join Carmelo Anthony in New York, or Dwight Howard in Orlando, the Hornets will be stripped bare which could jeopardize basketball in New Orleans altogether. These issues will hang over the Hornets season like a tornado cloud no matter how much new GM Dell Demps and new head coach Monty Williams wish them away. It will be lottery city for the Hornets this year and they better find a comfortable seat because they are going to be there awhile.


Pacific Division (in order of predicted finish)

Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers face an amazing challenge this season. In spite of the fact that the Lakers significantly improved in the off season, this title defense will be much tougher than the last two titles. The bar is raised around the league. But more than that, the Lakers are going to have to conquer fatigue, father time, and some nagging, potentially debilitating injuries that could undermine their ability to win their third title in a row. Laker head coach Phil Jackson has 10 championships to his name. Out of Philosophical Phil’s 10 titles , none may have been more difficult to achieve than last season’s. And as hard a last year’s title was, this year is going to be harder. Jackson’s toughest challenge will be economizing the minutes of his key players to have them healthy enough to be effective in the playoffs. Very frankly, Jackson played with fire last year and it paid off. Kobe Bryant played far too many minutes in the regular season considering his ongoing health issues. The Lakers signed free agent Matt Barnes in the off season to relieve some of Bryant’s burden. Big Chief Triangle’s biggest problem will be getting Kobe to understand that his minutes need to be regulated. Kobe will fight reduced minutes every step of the way, but Barnes will give them productive playing time while Bryant rests. Jackson also has to deal with Andrew Bynum’s not so recovered knee. Bynum will not be ready to start the season and L.A. will be lucky if he’s back by December. And when he does come back, Jackson would be quite wise to limit his minutes until he gets himself back into shape. Because of Bynum’s injury history and his size, despite his youth, Jackson should wait until he’s in peak condition before using him full time. Bynum’s chances of getting hurt again rise exponentially if he’s not in the best shape possible. The other problem that Phil needs to be acutely aware of is the emerging fatigue of Mr. Khloe Kardashian himself, my main man, Lamar Odom. Odom is enormously important to how the Lakers play because of the diversity of his game. He played his heart out in this summer’s World Championships in being the U.S. team’s key big man in their gold medal winning effort. The fact that Odom looked exhausted on the court, yet was supremely effective, was incredibly impressive. So after a month off, he embarks on what should be a minimum of 100 games over the next 8 ½ months. Jackson needs to be very careful here, so he also has Odom when he needs him. This will require Jackson to show some faith in veteran big man Theo Ratliff and rookie big man Derrick Caracter. If Ratliff is all washed up, like I suspect, than Jackson is going to have to have a lot of faith in a rookie, which rarely is standard operating procedure for Jackson. Whatever happens, Philosophical Phil will do it his way and no one else’s. And considering the man has two fists full of championship rings, he’s not a guy I want to pick against. Because of that, and the lack of another elite team in the Western Conference, I’ve got the Lakers winning the West and going to the finals.


Phoenix Suns- The Suns made a fantastic run to the West finals last season. Unfortunately for them, their most important on court asset is playing on Broadway and their most important off the court asset will be sitting next to Marv Albert at a TNT broadcast table. Many people in NBA circles consider Steve Nash as Phoenix’s best on court asset. Over the last few seasons, as Nash as gotten older, and Stoudemire has hit his prime, Amare has been a more important player for the Suns than Nash. Nash is a brilliant offensive player. However, his complete disinterest in defense borders on offensive. Next time you’re watching Nash on defense (play defense would be on overly generous term), observe what he does when his man beats him. Where a player like Rajon Rondo for example will head toward the basket after he gets beaten to help the man who helps him or be in position to grab a rebound, Nash hangs out close to the sideline to be in position for an inbound pass after a made basket. Nash will wait by the sidelines looking for an inbound pass often times when the ball hasn’t even been shot yet. Now please don’t get me wrong. I am not extolling the virtues of Stoudemire’s defense. Average would probably be a bit of a reach in describing Stoudemire’s defensive prowess. But at this stage of both of their careers, we’re going to see that Nash needs Stoudemire a lot more than Stoudemire needs Nash. I also feel the need to reiterate a point made last week by ESPN.com columnist Bill Simmons. In summarizing Phoenix’s off season, he asked the question of why would the Suns spend $80 million combined on Channing Frye, Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick when they could have brought Amare back for $100 million. It’s a great question, but has unfortunately become standard operating procedure for owner Robert Sarver’s Suns. Steve Kerr was the Suns GM last year. He did a masterful job of building a deep versatile roster that gave head coach Alvin Gentry several options depending upon how they needed to match up. After Gentry did an amazing job leading the suns to the West final, Kerr had the unmitigated gall to suggest to Sarver that Kerr and the front office staff deserved raises. What Sarver had in mind were reductions in pay for the front office. Kerr realized that he was spitting into the wind and walked. So where does that leave Gentry and the Suns? Well considering that the loss of Stoudemire will cause Gentry to have to play small all the time to get his best players on the floor, it leaves the Suns up a creek without a paddle in the West. It will be extremely difficult to match up favorably with teams like the Lakers, Dallas, Portland, San Antonio, and Houston when your big forward is Handsome Hedo Turkoglu. Because of that, I think that the Suns will struggle mightily to make the playoffs.


Sacramento Kings- There’s an old saying about success being defined when preparation meets opportunity. Then, sometimes, there’s just flat out dumb luck. In the 2009 draft, Oklahoma City decided to select James Harden with the third pick and leave Tyreke Evans for Sacramento to select at #4. On his way to winning rookie of the year, Evans was only the 4th rookie ever to average 20 points a game, 5 rebounds a game, and 5 assists a game. The other three were Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and Lebron James. Evans is on his way to being a big time all around player in the league for a long time. In this 2010 draft, the 76ers, the Nets, and the Timberwolves all decided to pass on the best big man in the draft, DeMarcus Cousins. The fact that Sacramento GM, Geoff Petrie selected Cousins was more about the mistakes of others than his own stroke of genius. Nonetheless, the Kings have two building blocks who have the potential to be two of the best ten players in the league. I am particularly fond of Cousins. He has great hands, great feet, plays physical defense, and backs down from no one. The big knock on him is that he is an angry, immature kid. But he’ll grow up, and that anger gives him an on-court edge that makes him very tough to play against. Furthermore, the Kings are very deep up front with Cousins, Jason Thompson, Carl Landry (another favorite of mine), and 19 year old promising rookie Hassan Whiteside. Besides Evans, they have two promising young wings in Omri Casspi and Donte Greene. The only important building block this team still needs is a point guard. Beno Udrih had a good year last season, but he’s not the long term answer as the starter. The Kings are moving in the right direction. You can sort of look at them as Oklahoma City Light. They probably won’t make the jump into the playoffs this year. But, next year…..look out.


Los Angeles Clippers- I’ve never been one to bag on the Clippers just because they’re the Clippers. The combination of poor management and bad luck has made them a franchise that’s synonymous with futility. They thought that their troubles were in the rear view mirror last season when they won the lottery and the privilege to draft Blake Griffin. Then Griffin blew out his knee and didn’t play a game. And now Griffin is back. He has looked great in the preseason and appears ready to lead this team. But what exactly is he going to be leading? Between Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, and Eric Gordon, Griffin has enough around him for L.A. to be respectable. Unfortunately, too many things have to go right for the Clips to creep into the playoffs. Davis has not appeared to be a happy player the last few years. He was lured to the Clips under false pretenses (thanks Elton Brand). And his body language tells the story. But this should be a fresh start. Besides for Griffin, the Clippers brought in a new head coach in former Bulls head coach Vinny Del Negro. Del Negro certainly had some growing pains in Chicago, but he’s a good coach with potential to get better. The big problem with the Clippers is that they didn’t do very much to help themselves in the off season. They signed two pedestrian free agents in Randy Foye and Ryan Gomes. And they drafted a bust in the making in Al-Farouq Aminu and a good young guard caught behind Davis in Eric Bledsoe. Between Griffin, Gordon and Bledsoe, there are the beginnings of some sort of future. In the meantime, the Clippers will be occupying familiar territory….the draft lottery.


Golden State Warriors- Since there is so much bad news associated with the Warriors, I’m going to focus on the good news first. They have new ownership, a new coach, and a few guys that can score. That’s where the good news ends. They replaced Don Nelson at head coach with assistant Keith Smart. Smart is promising to employ a more defensive oriented system. Which is a great idea for the exception of one little problem. Their personnel is geared towards playing an up tempo game without much concern for defense. They paid David Lee an absurd amount of money to come as a free agent. And they gave up a gifted young player in Anthony Randolph in the sign and trade. Lee can score a little and gets rebounds, but he’s as bad a defender as you’ll see and the next guy he boxes out will be his first. Monta Ellis is a chucker who doesn’t pass or defend. Stephen Curry is a statistic machine, but he turns the ball over a ton and doesn’t defend very well either. As a matter of fact, Andris Biedrins is the only guy on the roster who can guard anyone. Smart has the right idea in what he wants to do, but the wrong group to do it with. Ultimately, they’re going to have to decide if they want to keep Ellis or Curry because the most obvious thing about last year’s Warrior team was that these two could not play together. Rarely would they both touch the ball on the same possession. The one they will most likely keep is Curry, even though he can return much more in a trade than Ellis can. Either way, they will be no where close to a playoff team this season.



Playoff Seeds

1) L.A. Lakers
2) Dallas
3) Oklahoma City
4) Houston
5) Portland
6) San Antonio
7) Utah
8) Memphis


First Round

L.A. over Memphis
Dallas over Utah
San Antonio over Oklahoma City
Houston over Portland


Second Round

L.A. over Houston
Dallas over San Antonio

Conference Finals

L.A. over Dallas


NBA Finals

Boston over L.A. (in 7)



I can’t escape what I saw in game 7 of last year’s NBA finals. For as good as the Lakers are, they ran out of steam at the end of that series. They were able to win the title because of two important factors. The first being the home court advantage. The Lakers could not have won game 7 with as badly as they shot if they were on the road. The second factor was the absence of Boston center Kendrick Perkins. The Lakers shot 26% from the field in the first half of that game but were only down six at the half largely because of their 15 offensive rebounds. There is no possible way that L.A. gets 15 offensive rebounds in a half with Perkins on the floor. The Celtics have restocked their rotation of bigs with the addition of the O’Neals…and they’ll get Perkins back sometime in the middle of the season. For the Lakers to win last year, a lot of things had to fall their way. These two teams are so evenly matched, I see things falling the Celtics way this year by the slimmest of margins.

Giddyap. Y’all be cool.

Eastern Conference Preview…..Oh Baby!!!!


As a lifelong New York Rangers fan, it was an inevitable development that I became an enormous fan of longtime Ranger goaltender and then announcer John Davidson, affectionately known to Ranger fans as JD. JD was a goalie who was not blessed with a lot of talent. His effectiveness was belied by his heart, his fearlessness, and his passion for the game. That passion for hockey would come shooting out of his voice while he was announcing a game. He developed an expression during the most exciting parts of a game. JD would uncontrollably exclaim, Oh Baby, when the action got so intense, he lost the words to describe it. Oh Baby wasn’t a contrived catch phrase. It was the result of a passionate hockey man who couldn’t hold back.

Being the basketball fanatic that I am, when I think about this upcoming season, the only words I can use to describe it are, “Oh Baby!!!” After the most interesting and publicized off season in league history, the time has come to lace them up and get it on. So, without further adieu, I give you my Eastern Conference Preview.


Atlantic Division (in order of predicted finish)


Boston Celtics- This season’s incarnation of the storied Celtics is a little different than the previous 3 years and I actually think that’s a good thing. The biggest problem this group of Celtics can encounter are the effects of father time. As their core ages, the importance of managing the minutes of their “Big 3” becomes more essential. This version of the Celtics will have that covered well. This is the deepest Celtic team of the last 4 years, even without Kendrick Perkins for the first half of the season. The free agent signings of Shaquille and Jermaine O’Neal will give the Celtics plenty of depth up front while they wait for Perkins to return. Also, the additions of Delonte West and Von Wafer will strengthen the bench as well and allow Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to get the necessary rest they need to be healthy for the playoffs. Keep an eye on Wafer, who played for the Rockets two years ago and was out of the league last year. Wafer will pass a kidney stone before he’ll ever pass the ball, but he can fill it up in bunches in short spurts and defends like an animal. The Celtics have a very good chance to return to where they got last year….game 7 of the NBA finals.

New York Knicks- After 10 years of selling their fans a bill of goods about their ability to be competitive, it looks the Knicks are finally going to be making the right kind of progress. They got younger, more athletic, and will be significantly more fun to watch. Amare Stoudemire gives the Knicks a caliber of player that they haven’t had since the days of Patrick Ewing. Raymond Felton gives the Knicks a tough, fast point guard who can push the ball and actually run coach Mike D’Antoni’s offense. Felton just came out of a year of point guard prison with Warden Larry Brown. Playing in D’Antoni’s wide open style will feel like a whole new world has opened up for Felton. And watch Knicks rookie center Timofey Mozgov from Russia. He’s big, he can jump high, has good hands, plays physical, and understands how to play help defense. The Knicks may be able to push over the .500 mark as they move in the right direction. Now the future would really be bright if the Knicks actually had any draft picks. Also, a big wild card for the Knicks will be if they are able to acquire Carmelo Anthony this season. I think there’s a high probability that Anthony ends up in New York. If he does, the Knicks could be as high as a #5 seed in the East. Better times are on the horizon in the Big Apple. Despite not getting Lebron James in free agency, Donnie Walsh had a very productive off season.

Toronto Raptors- The good news for the Raptors is that in my opinion, they will not completely collapse after losing Chris Bosh to his higher calling of saving the free world with the Miami Heat. The Raptors are actually in the process of building an interesting young core. Last year’s first round pick Demar Derozan appears to be ready to pick up the slack as the franchise’s best player. Ed Davis may end up being a tremendous value in this past year’s first round. And the addition of wing player Linas Kleiza should really help. Kleiza played in Greece last season after being an important bench player two years ago for the Denver team that made to the West finals. Kleiza looked great this summer playing for Lithuania in this past summer’s World Championships. He should help Toronto a lot. Unfortunately for Toronto, the best they can hope for is an outside shot at the #8 seed in the East and frankly, they would be better off back in the lottery.

Philadelphia 76ers- Sometime soon, new Sixers head coach Doug Collins is going to realize what he left the cozy confines of the broadcast booth to coach, and when he does, he is going to get a case of indigestion worse than Rex Ryan at a breakfast buffet. First off, they’re not very deep up front. Marreese Speights is an athletic big, but there’s not much behind him. Elton Brand has been an enormous disappointment on every front. His contract is an anchor on the organization. He has been unable to stay healthy and when he’s played, he’s been barely noticeable. And they still owe him huge money for 3 more years. As good as Andre Iguodala looked in the World Championships this summer, he’s not an elite player and he’s paid like one. The Sixers drafted Evan Turner, who does many of the same things as Iguodala, when they could have selected DeMarcus Cousins and had a center for the next 10 years. They do have a young, promising point guard in Jrue Holiday, but he will experience a few years of growing pains before his potential is realized. The Sixers are deluding themselves if they think they’re going to be competitive with this group. They would be better off rebuilding. And the most bizarre part about it is that new team President Rod Thorn thinks he’s got a better chance to turn this group around than his former 12 win mess in New Jersey. What’s even crazier is that Thorn is probably right. Which leads us to…..

New Jersey Nets- The Nets are operating under the premise that it can’t get any worse than last season. That would be difficult. Unfortunately, after their disaster of an off season, it’s not getting much better anytime soon. In an attempt to refrain from kicking the Nets while they’re down, I’m going to gloss over the fact that Carmelo Anthony refused to allow himself to be traded to Jersey by declining their offer of a contract extension. However, the bottom line for the Nets is that they had a miserable off season. They spent an absurd amount of money on Travis Outlaw. Anthony Morrow isn’t solving any problems and Johan Petro creates them. Jordan Farmar is a nice addition, but he’s stuck behind Devin Harris. And speaking of Harris, the Nets are about to bear the brunt of the dysfunctional relationship between Harris and their new head coach Avery Johnson. Johnson was Harris’ coach in Dallas and was thrilled to get rid of him then. When the cameras are on, Johnson tells the world Harris is like a son to him. Yet, when Harris’ name is constantly coming up in trade rumors, rest assured that Johnson is the engine driving that bus. Johnson wants Harris gone and will tell anyone who will listen, when he thinks he’s speaking off the record. But all of this doesn’t represent what I believe is the Nets worst problem. Jersey’s dirty little secret is that their supposed franchise center Brook Lopez is not that good. This Nets regime just like the last regime, have deemed Lopez untouchable. Don’t get me wrong. Lopez is a good player and a legitimate threat in the low post. But Lopez is heavy footed on defense, doesn’t pass out of double teams well and has proven to be an average rebounder at best. Furthermore, most league executives love him. The Nets biggest mistake is not understanding that Lopez will have more value to them off their team. Lopez can bring back a haul on the open market. Lopez is so well regarded around the league, he can be mentioned in a trade conversation for any player in the league not named Wade, Lebron, Kobe, or Durant. The bottom line is that the Nets won’t have this thing turned around until they make a bold move, like trading Lopez. And they better get working before their dirty little secret gets out.


Central Division (in predicted order of finish)


Chicago Bulls- The Bulls had a tremendous off season. They were able to turn one of their max cap slots into all star forward Carlos Boozer. They added key role players in Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer. And most importantly, they signed their athletic center Joakim Noah to a 5 year contract extension. This is undoubtedly a step in the right direction, despite losing Boozer to a broken hand until the beginning of December. As far as this season is concerned, the Bulls have not come quite far enough to be among the Eastern Conference elite. I wholeheartedly believe they will get there. But they are still a year or two away. If the Bulls make the conference finals, this season will have been an absolute success. For what it’s worth, in spite of their great off season, I feel the need to deride their GM Gar Forman and their president John Paxson for throwing away seasoned and versatile guard Kirk Hinrich and a mid first round pick, just for the privilege of chasing someone to play with Lebron James, who they never got. Paxson and Forman aced Professor Donnie Walsh’s class on how to throw away contributors and first round draft pick to chase an impossible dream.

Milwaukee Bucks- The Bucks were last season’s cute little surprise. This year, the stakes get higher and the group the Bucks have assembled should be up to the task. All Star center Andrew Bogut will be back, although not 100% healthy. The Bucks added some key parts in the off season. Wing player Corey Maggette will be a great fit if he manages to stay on the court. Drew Gooden and rookie Larry Sanders (hey now) will give the Bucks a few big forwards to help Bogut, which they didn’t have last year. They will have John Salmons for an entire season and Brandon Jennings should be a year better. Unfortunately, in the East, the best they can do is be a pain in someone’s rump in the second round. For the Bucks, that will represent progress. Head coach Scott Skiles has the group buying in and moving in the right direction. Fear the Deer.


Indiana Pacers- As each new season approaches, I always find myself falling into the same trap and predicting some progress for the Pacers. Each new season, the Pacers disappoint and prove me wrong by stinking up the joint. So, where does that leave me this year? I never learn. I think the Pacers are a playoff team in the East this season. Team president Larry Bird has done a tremendous job building a balanced, fundamentally sound roster. The one spot where Indiana suffered last season was point guard. Last year’s starter, T.J. Ford, was the worst starting point guard in the NBA this side of Chris Duhon. Bird stood pat at last year’s trade deadline because he didn’t get what he felt to be a quality offer for Troy Murphy’s expiring contract. So he held onto Murphy until the off season and got rewarded for his patience. He traded Murphy in an elaborate 4 way trade that brought second year point guard Darren Collison to Indiana. Collison is an excellent point guard prospect. He defends very well and can both pass and score. He has a turnover problem he needs to work on, but he is a young productive player and a great fit in Indiana. So much of Indiana’s success will depend upon the unselfishness of their best player, Danny Granger. Granger came into the league has a hard working player who could defend as well as score. He’s evolved into a high volume low percentage shooter who treats defense as a convenience. If Granger rediscovers his unselfishness, it will go a long way in finally seeing some earnest progress in Indiana.


Detroit Pistons- In Rocky 3, Rocky Balboa looks at Adrian on the beach in the penultimate scene and asks, “How did everything that was so good, get so bad?” Pistons fans have every right to ask the same question. Detroit GM Joe Dumars has loused up this organization up and down the line. And the craziest part about it is that he had actually set things up for the Pistons to rebound quickly as their championship core from 2004 progressed into the back nine of their respective careers. Dumars made a very unpopular but financially clever deal early in the 2008-2009 season by sending popular and accomplished point guard Chauncey Billups to Denver for the eccentric Allen Iverson and his expiring contract. With Rasheed Wallace’s contract also expiring after that season, Dumars had set the Pistons up to be big players in the big free agency frenzy of 2010. Here is where Joe D drove the train off the tracks. Instead of holding the cap room until there were worthy players available, Dumars emptied his barrel by signing undersized guard/chucker Ben Gordon and soft power forward Charlie Villanueva to matching $10 million per year contracts. Gordon got 5 years. Joe D was more frugal with Villanueva giving him 4 years. Gordon was unable to stay healthy all year and was ineffective when he played. Villanueva was quite adept at updating his Twitter account frequently, but fell short in terms of making an impact on the court. So where does that leave the Pistons for this coming season. Their head coach John Kuester, who I’m not very impressed with ( as detailed here http://hoopscritic.blogspot.com/2009_07_01_archive.html) has a very difficult balancing act ahead of him. Kuester needs to give enough playing time to holdovers Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton so Dumars can showcase them to other teams in hopes of moving one or both of them for a meaningful asset. At the same time Kuester needs to get their promising young wing players Austin Daye and DaJuan Summers some significant minutes so they can develop and Dumars can see if these kids can play. So what does Joe D do? He decides to sign the thoroughly washed up Tracy McGrady to a one year deal. The same Tracy McGrady that looked like he needed a walker to get onto the court last season for the Knicks. The bad news for Pistons fans is that despite drafting a good player in Georgetown big man Greg Monroe, there are not enough good players on this team…and the coach is bad too. The good news is that it appears as though Mike Ilitch, the owner of the Detroit Tigers and Detroit Red Wings, is planning on buying the Pistons from the Davidson family. This could very well translate into changes at general manager and coach which would be a good thing. Rarely is the guy who made the mess the right guy to clean the mess and Dumars is no exception. It’s another non playoff season of anti-competitive basketball in Detroit.


Cleveland Cavaliers- It would be bad form to pile on the Cavaliers after the devastation that this organization experienced in the off season. We can debate all year about how much the Cavs are culpable for Lebron’s exit, but it doesn’t change the fact that he took his talents to South Beach. In the wake of Lebron’s departure, the Cavs really only have one choice about what direction they need to go. They need to break it down and start from scratch. The main focus before the trade deadline is to find takers for the contracts of Antawn Jamison, Mo Williams, an Anderson Varejao. There should be a healthy market for Varejao. Jamison and Williams will be much tougher to get rid of. This team, should be built around J.J. Hickson. They refused to move him to make Lebron’s Cavs better, so I would say they’re committed to him. They should also find out if young players Danny Green and Christian Eyenga can play. In most unfortunate fashion, the Cavaliers are going back to the days of being the Cleveland Cadavers for a few years. And by the way, Cavs owner Dan Gilbert needs to be very patient with new head coach Byron Scott. Scott walked into miserable situations in his first two jobs in New Jersey and New Orleans. He turned those around quickly. Scott is not the best tactical coach and can wear of players’ nerves after a few years, but he demands a lot from his players and guys get better on his watch.


Southeast Division (in predicted order of finish)


Miami Heat- Are they going to be great? Duh!!! This will be an outstanding regular season team that will win a minimum of 60 games. They are going to be fun to watch and will attract paparazzi like attention where ever they go. But will they win the title this year? I’m not so sure. I don’t think they did such a great job assembling pieces around their three South Beach Super Heroes ( after all,….they joined forces to be together…). Their best 5 players is a group without a true center and without a true point guard. They won’t beat Boston that way and will have their hands full against the Magic. Miami’s best five players are Superman, Batman, Aquaman, Mike Miller, and Udonis Haslem. That lineup forces Bosh or Haslem to play center which makes them too small. And that lineup forces Wade to defend a point guard, which is not the most efficient use of Wade. Speaking of Wade, his, shall we say, inconsistency on defense the last two seasons has been something that Heat management has looked the other way from primarily because he was becoming a free agent. Now that he’s re-signed and he got to bring his friends with him, it will be interesting to see if he decides to renew his commitment to the defensive end of the floor. The Heat will be great and they’ve given the league a villain and a traveling event all rolled into one. But, as currently constituted, they’re not going to be able to win a playoff series against Boston or the Lakers.

Orlando Magic- The Magic have a very interesting challenge ahead of them for this coming season. How do find a way to improve as a unit when management hasn’t made any appreciable upgrades to the personnel? They added Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson and only subtracted Matt Barnes. So the answer to their question is to focus on the improvement of individual players. The two guys that can really upgrade their games to make the Magic better are Dwight Howard and J.J. Redick. Howard has done off season work with Hakeem Olajuwon. Howard does not need work on his defense and rebounding. He needs help offensively in the post. My biggest criticism of Howard’s post game is that he invited double teams as opposed to forcing them. When he catches a pass in the post, he has a habit of holding or dribbling the ball in place while waiting to begin a move. This gives the defense time to make a choice on whether to double him or not. If he makes his move quickly, he forces the defense to make a faster decision, which gives Howard the advantage. This will also make the decision of when to pass out of a double team easier to make, which is Howard’s other weakness. Redick, on the other hand gave us a glimpse of the type of impact wing player he could be in last year’s playoffs. He has become a tenacious defender and is still a dead eye shooter. He has also developed his athleticism and conditioning to a point where he is a perfect fit for how Orlando wants to play. The thing about the Magic is this. They were an excellent regular season team last year and will be an excellent regular season team this year. The Magic struggled last year in the playoffs because they didn’t play fast enough for the lineup that coach Stan Van Gundy employs. By playing Rashard Lewis at big forward most of the time, Orlando is a little small to match up with the Celtics. This would be okay, if they were completely committed to pushing the tempo all the time. But point guard Jameer Nelson was more interested in slowing down the tempo so he could run the pick and roll. And it didn’t seem like Stan Van Gundy was emphasizing a speedy tempo as much as he should have. If the Magic end up matched up with one of the big, elite teams, and they choose to play slow, Van Gundy has to play long stretches with Howard and his secret weapon, 7 footer Marcin Gortat, on the floor together. If they get caught in the half court with a small lineup, they are way too susceptible to the perimeter whims of Nelson and Vince Carter. But Stan has always been set in his ways, so there’s no reason to think he’ll change. I see the Magic with a 55 win season and a 2nd round playoff exit.


Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks did something this off season that they rarely do. They spent money and lots of it. They re-signed Joe Johnson to a 6 year max contract. The problem is that Johnson was probably the wrong guy to pay that kind of money. As the years have passed, Johnson has become less of a well rounded player and more of a high volume, low percentage shooter who doesn’t defend all that well. Unfortunately for the Hawks, they, like Orlando, were unable to make any kind of meaningful roster upgrades. They are working feverishly to sign young big man Al Horford to a long term contract. The franchise is looking to build a perennial winner around Johnson, Horford, and Josh Smith, who they extended last year. They are also steadfastly refusing to extend all-world chucker Jamal Crawford, which shows that they are in tune with what they need. Second year guard Jeff Teague should fill Crawford’s role cheaper and much more efficiently. The bad news in all of this for the Hawks is that they haven’t gotten much better in a conference where the top teams improved significantly. So, although there is a future here, this roster will still only translate into a first round playoff loss.

Washington Wizards-The Wizards are much closer to having last year’s disaster turned around than they deserve. GM Ernie Grunfeld overplayed his hand last year by trading the #5 pick in the draft for two bench players in Randy Foye and Mike Miller who were much closer to being part of the problem than being part of the solution. Ernie’s indigestion really hit high gear when the pick he traded turned out to be Ricky Rubio. And just when Ernie thought it couldn’t get any worse, Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenden tried to turn the Wizards locker room into the final scene of Scarface. Ernie’s decision to break it down at the trade deadline and unload Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, and Brendan Haywood was clearly the right one. And the hoop gods rewarded him with the winning ping pong ball in the draft lottery and the prestigious honor to draft can’t miss point guard John Wall. Wall is a superb athlete that will be one of the best in the league at the position once he learns the nuances. But Ernie didn’t stop there. He rented some cap space to the Chicago Bulls for Kirk Hinrich and a first round pick that ended up being big man Kevin Seraphin. Hinrich will be a fantastic mentor to Wall who should offset any negative influence that emanates from the toxic Arenas. Ernie also may have pulled off a coup in renting more cap space to the Nets for disappointing forward Yi Jianlian. Yi has had an excellent off season and looked like a different player for China in the World Championships. With his contract expiring at the end of the season, the Wizards get a free look. The Wiz may not be good enough to make the playoffs this season, but their time as a lottery team will be short. They’ve got plenty of better days ahead and soon.

Charlotte Bobcats- With the way the Bobcats are set up for this season, I have to figure that head coach Larry Brown makes it no further than the All-Star break without gargling Drano. They lost their point guard Raymond Felton to free agency and Larry trusts last year’s backup D.J. Augustin about as much as Elin Nordegren trusts Tiger Woods. His other choices are Shawn Livingston, who already is having pain in his surgically repaired knee and Javaris “Quick Draw” Crittenden. On top of this, the Bobcats have chosen to get in bed with some bad attitudes who they desperately need to be key players. In the right situation, Stephen Jackson and Tyrus Thomas are major contributors. Jackson can carry the load and Thomas is a young athletic big with a ton of upside. But if the wheels start falling off, these two will turn on Larry faster than a race car on a tight turn. The Bobcats made their maiden playoff appearance last season. But their inability to upgrade the roster in a meaningful way is going to put them right back in the lottery.


Playoff Seeds

1) Miami
2) Boston
3) Chicago
4) Orlando
5) Milwaukee
6) Atlanta
7) New York
8) Indiana

First Round

Miami over Indiana
Boston over New York
Chicago over Atlanta
Orlando over Milwaukee

Second Round

Miami over Orlando
Boston over Chicago

East Finals

Boston over Miami


As much as the Heat have done to build a championship team, this coming season is going to function more as a learning experience. Management will learn exactly what needs to be put in place around the James, Wade, and Bosh. And James, Wade, and Bosh will learn what it takes to play the type of physical, fundamental basketball it takes to win a title. Now before you say it, I know Wade has won one already. But he was a different player then. He was more fearless and a little more athletic than he is now. But the most important thing is that he had Shaq at the tail end of his prime. The Celtics now have an over the hill version of Shaq. However, Shaq at this stage of his career is exactly what the Celtics need to keep their status as Eastern kings. This incarnation of the Heat will win a title or two….but not so fast.

I’ll be back next week with my West preview. Giddyap. Y’all be cool.

The Shell Answer Man



My favorite teacher ever was my 8th grade journalism teacher Bill Ehrlich. Mr. Ehrlich generally played it by ear with the curriculum and loved basketball as much as I did. He also did not subscribe to the theory that no question was a dumb question. Every time someone asked Mr. Ehrlich a dumb question, he always gave the same answer. “What the hell am I, The Shell Answer Man?’ This was a reference to an early 80s TV commercial for Shell Oil where a guy dubbed the Shell Answer Man answered any question you can imagine about cars, oil, gas etc….

So as a tribute to my first journalism inspiration, Mr. Ehrlich, I am going to use a new column theme called the Shell Answer Man. I am going to compile questions that either I’ve been asked, I’ve heard someone else ask, or most often, I’ve asked myself. Considering that I talk to myself more than anyone else talks to me, a good number of these questions involve me talking to myself, so kindly indulge me.

It is a very unique start of training camp across the NBA when there is a player the caliber of Carmelo Anthony who is likely to move before the season begins. Therefore the maiden voyage of the Shell Answer Man will focus around Anthony and his quest to be able to see Denver in his rear view mirror.

Will this well publicized Anthony trade to the Nets actually be consummated?

My call is absolutely not. There are a few different obstacles standing in the way of this deal’s completion. First and foremost, The Nets will not make this trade if Anthony doesn’t agree to a contract extension. Anthony has made it very clear to everyone and anyone that would listen that his first choice is to go to the New York Knicks. And although the Nets are located and will be located no more than one bridge from Manhattan, to Carmelo, I believe it represents a significant difference. First of all, sources close to Anthony say that he would like to play with Amare Stoudemire and those same sources are not saying he’s dying to play with the untouchable Brook Lopez. Anthony’s top two choices on his wish list may end up being his only two, New York and Chicago. And considering that the only way Denver would trade Carmelo to Chicago would be if they got Joakim Noah in return, we can rule out Chicago. The Bulls are not moving Noah and I don’t blame them. So that leaves the Knicks. When we consider the fact that Carmelo has all of the leverage based upon the fact that he can leave Denver at the end of the season and go wherever he wants, he doesn’t have to agree to extend a contract anywhere he doesn’t prefer to, which is bad news for the Nets. The only break the Nets can catch here is that Anthony may be hesitant to hit free agency with the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expiring at the end of the season, Anthony may not want to go into the unknown not knowing, so to speak. Anthony can guarantee himself up to 5 more years by signing a three year extension which would require exercising his 2011-2012 option at max money. There is no guarantee he gets 5 years in the new CBA. It become a big old game of chicken. If Anthony doesn’t blink and calls Denver’s bluff about not sending him to the Knicks, he risks not getting 5 years at this CBA’s max numbers. Three months ago, I would have absolutely believed he would accept the Nets trade and take the money, but after the South Beach Super Heroes took less to play together, I feel differently. In the end, Cleveland caved and did a sign and trade for Lebron, after they said they never would. If Anthony calls Denver’s bluff about the Knicks, I think Denver caves too and doesn’t risk getting nothing for him. Which leads us to our next question……

If Anthony wants to play in New York so badly, why aren’t the Knicks bigger players in all of this right now?

The first and most important reason is that the Knicks do not have a package that is relatively attractive to Denver. Denver has made it clear they want a young asset(s), salary cap relief and draft picks. The Knicks have a few young assets and can offer Ready Eddy Curry as cap relief but don’t have a draft pick to send because of last February’s disastrous Jared Jeffries trade. The other reality staring the Knicks in the face is the fact that even if they had a first rounder to send to Denver, they still are not going to have a relatively competitive package. If the Bulls ever decided to include Noah, the Knicks couldn’t compete. And this deal that the Nets have agreed to is a much better deal than what the Knicks can offer.

Knick GM Donnie Walsh has been getting skewered on New York talk radio for the Knicks not being major players for Anthony at this stage of the game considering how badly Anthony wants to play in New York. In reality, Donnie is actually playing this perfectly. Why would Donnie offer up his best possible package when he knows it won’t be enough? If Anthony gets traded to the Knicks, it will be because he used his considerable leverage to bend the Nuggets over a barrel to get there. If Anthony uses this leverage, the Nuggets will be at the Knicks mercy if they want to get anything for him. Why should Donnie offer his best package, when he’ll be able to do it for less, especially if his best package isn’t enough? The Knicks only chance is if Anthony backs Denver into a corner and gives them no other viable alternative. In that scenario, Walsh will most likely not have to put Danilo Gallinari and Anthony Randolph in the same package. He can keep one, most likely Gallinari. And if Donnie needs a first rounder, both Houston and Denver are willing to offer a first rounder to New York for Randolph. Beggars can’t be choosers and Carmelo has the ability to turn Denver into beggars. Sure, Denver can be defiant and choose to let Anthony go to free agency, but then they will get nothing for him, just like Cleveland did with Lebron James. Considering the Knicks do not have the best hand at this poker table, they are playing this perfectly. If Anthony says no to New Jersey, in poker terms, the Knicks have flopped the nut flush.

What happens to Denver if Anthony rejects the Net deal?

If Anthony rejects the Net deal, Denver is up a creek without a paddle. They lose any negotiating leverage with any other teams. Most likely, Denver would start the season with Anthony on their team while continuing to beg him to sign an extension with them or expand his wish list. There is a low likelihood of either of those things happening. The longer Denver holds Anthony into the season, the less they will be able to bring in for him. So as angry as Denver will be at him and as distasteful as it would be to give him his way, ultimately it would be good business to move him to New York and get whatever they can.

What happens to New Jersey if Anthony rejects the deal?

If Anthony rejects this deal, it will be a black mark on the New Jersey’s new regime. Their ability to attract premium players in their prime will be completely neutralized. And it will certainly lengthen their rebuilding process which is sure not to please new owner Mikhail Prokhorov. But with the young assets they’ve accumulated, combined with their salary cap space and a wealth of draft picks, they still should get things turned around in the next 3 years. A player of Anthony’s stature would bring instant credibility. That level of credibility would take some time to achieve otherwise.

What happens to all parties involved if Anthony says yes to New Jersey?

For Carmelo, he runs the risk of getting mired in the exact situation he’s looking escape in Denver. The Nets were a 12 win team last year, who have made modest roster upgrades at best. If they can’t follow an Anthony acquisition up with another legitimate star player, Anthony’s further away from winning than he was in Denver. For the Nuggets, they get a nice package that begins rebuilding, but keeps them modestly competitive for this year. For New Jersey, they gain the credibility that Comrade Prokhorov promised his fans, but end up with accelerated pressure to continue to upgrade the roster immediately. And for the Knicks, they end up exactly where they are right now, in the early stages of a rebuilding project with very few draft picks going forward.


I’ll have my season preview forthcoming just as soon as L’Affaire Carmelo plays itself out. This is a pretty fluid situation, so feel free to get my updated lunatic rantings at www.twitter.com/bgeltz . Giddyap. Y’all be cool.

Plagiarizing Dave Letterman


A few months back, I wrote a column comprised only of Top Ten lists. At the time, I used the Conan O’ Brien NBC affair to disguise the fact that I am really just ripping off the King of Late Night. Well that charade ends right here and now. This column will also be comprised only of Top Ten lists. But this time, I will spare the flimsy excuse. Senor Letterman’s version of the Top Ten list will be the most concise format for me to deliver my message. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

It’s been a hectic off season and a lot has happened. There have been players and subjects that have been covered and analyzed from here to the moon and back. My other promise to you, my reader, is to complete this column without making a reference to the South Beach Super Heroes.


The Top Ten Best Value Contracts signed this off season.


10) Shaquille O’Neal Boston Celtics (2 yrs. $3 million)- Over the years, Shaq has been the subject of some of the best fat jokes I’ve ever come up with. And I know that I’m not engaging in any type of astute analysis when I say that he’s certainly playing the 17th and 18th holes of his illustrious career, as his best days are far behind him. But he has arrived at the one destination where his two biggest deficiencies will be easily hurdled. Its no secret that Shaq’s pick and roll defense has been substandard for several years. The Titanic takes sharp turns faster than Shaq rotates off a screen. And against some strong pick and roll teams (Chicago and Orlando for example), Shaq will have to nailed to the bench. However, Shaq can still score in the post. He can still play help defense at the rim. He still is a good rebounder and he obviously still has tremendous size (not a fat joke). The Celtics believe that they can win a title this season. To achieve that, they need to beat both Miami and the Lakers. Against Miami, it will be easy to hide Shaq on Miami’s Ilgauskas/Joel Anthony salad at center. And considering that L.A. runs the triangle, Shaq’s big body will be as asset because he won’t have to defend the screen and roll. The other problem with Shaq is that his ego is the size of his backside. ( sorry…couldn’t resist). One of the few teams in the league who can police Shaq’s ego is the Celtics, who have many guys who have won championship rings without Shaq. Its role player city for the big fella and he will be a pariah in his own locker room if he resists it for even a second.


9) J.J. Redick Orlando Magic (3 yrs. $20 million)- The Bulls signed Redick to an offer sheet and the Magic wisely matched the offer. Redick was the best perimeter player on the Magic in the Eastern Conference finals where they lost to Boston. He would have been an excellent fit for Chicago. But he is crucial for Orlando to maintain their status as contenders in the East. The Magic made a big bet last off season in making a significant commitment to Vince Carter as their primary offensive wing player. Carter had a decent regular season, but was wholly ineffective in the playoffs. Redick looked like a player who was tough to guard, played effective defense, and deserved to play more. His emergence is the most important factor in Orlando’s ability to improve.

8) Carlos Boozer Chicago Bulls (5 yrs. $75 million) - The Bulls managed to sign the perfect player to fit their personnel. They needed a big forward who can score in the post and excel in the pick and roll. Because of the presence of their excellent young center Joakim Noah, the big forward they would sign did not have to be a defensive force. Boozer fits that profile in every way. And the Bulls managed to get him for less than the max. He immediately upgrades the Bulls to a title contender.


7) Luke Ridnour Minnesota Timberwolves ( 4 yrs. $16 million)- Minnesota GM David Kahn is the classic example of the cow that gives milk and kicks over the can. He will make bold visionary moves ( Foye and Miller for the 5th pick in the 2009 draft) that reflect genius, and then he will do things that are inexplicably moronic, like drafting a pick and roll point guard in Johnny Flynn, then hiring Kurt Rambis as head coach who employs the triangle offense. Ridnour qualifies as a coup for Kahn. Ridnour was outstanding last year for Milwaukee. He is an excellent offensive point guard. And for the first time in his career, he was able to mask his defensive deficiencies a little bit by playing scrappy. It would be an even better move, if Kahn didn’t also have Flynn under contract and still own the rights to Ricky Rubio.


6) Ronnie Brewer Chicago Bulls (3 yrs. $12 million)- Brewer is not a player who is going to fill up the basket for Chicago, but he’s efficient and very tough defensively. He is a 50% career shooter whom averages 10 points per game for his career. He is an excellent fit for the Bulls, which is rapidly becoming a common theme here. Brewer is an excellent back court complement to Derrick Rose, and will not need to score to help the Bulls immensely. The Bulls could use a shut down perimeter defender, and Brewer should fit that bill at more than reasonable price.


5) Raja Bell Utah Jazz (3 yrs. $10 million)- Bell was an enormously important signing for Utah, in light of them losing Wesley Matthews to Portland. They traded Brewer to Memphis last season at the trade deadline for a half eaten hot dog just to get under the luxury tax. And although they drafted Gordon Hayward with the 9th pick in the first round to play a wing, Hayward will not be mistaken as a defensive stopper in his first few years. Bell gives Utah a formidable defender to guard the Kobe Bryants and Carmelo Anthonys of the world.


4) Tony Allen Memphis Grizzlies ( 3 yrs. $10 million)- After how Allen performed in the playoffs, it is surprising Memphis got him for such a bargain price. Allen was the single best perimeter defender on the Celtics in the playoffs. He guarded Kobe Bryant as well as frankly I’ve ever seen anyone guard him. I have no illusions about Allen’s offense. If he threw garbage off a pier, he’d only have a slight chance of hitting the water. But the man can shut down a scorer as good as anyone. And Memphis got him for a song. Furthermore, he’s the only important piece that Boston didn’t replace this off season.

3) Jordan Farmar New Jersey Nets ( 3 yrs. $12 million)- Farmar was not a great fit in L.A.’s triangle offense. But he was also their best defensive guard. He’s a very nice signing for the Nets considering that they struck out with all of the premium free agents. Farmar has the ability to play defense effectively from baseline to baseline. He has the ability to get into the paint offensively with his quickness and is more than capable of pushing the tempo. But most importantly for New Jersey, he gives them a viable option at point guard if they would need to move Devin Harris to bring in a premium player. The Nets did not do a lot of smart things in this off season, but Farmar is a smart signing at an efficient price.


2) Raymond Felton New York Knicks ( 3 yrs. $25 million)- When was the last time the Knicks signed a free agent and actually got themselves a bargain? Maybe Allan Houston,,,,but probably not. Most likely is all the way back to John Starks being signed in 1990 as an undrafted free agent. Felton not only survived lovable Larry Brown last year, he actually thrived under him. Felton defends very well and is very physical. He’s excellent at getting into the paint in the half court and improved his shooting percentage significantly last season my displaying a more discerning shot selection. And considering the fact that only 2 years of Felton’s deal are guaranteed at $17 million, the Knicks did very well for themselves.

1) Matt Barnes Los Angeles Lakers ( 2 yrs $3.6 million)- Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak proves for the second straight off season that when it comes to assembling championship teams, he totally gets it. Last year’s finals were a gutter war. And very frankly, Kobe Bryant was barely standing by the time it ended. Bryant needs more rest than he got this past season. Matt Barnes will not only capably fill in for Kobe, he can play a wing opposite Ron Artest with Kobe guarding a weak point guard and they can shut down anyone on the perimeter. Kupchak made the bold, correct move last year in ostensibly swapping Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest. And granted, he was dealing from a stacked deck in this Barnes thing in the respect that Barnes clearly took less to go to L.A., but Kupchak struck gold.



Top Ten Worst Value Contracts signed this off season


10) Wesley Matthews Portland Trailblazers ( 5 yrs. $34 million)- I like Matthews as a player and the fact that he is a capable and willing defender is attractive, but should he get $34 million for one year of slightly above average perimeter defense? And correct me, if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Nicholas Batum do the exact same thing for Portland…only better…and much cheaper. But then again, these are the types of decisions your organization makes when you do things like fire your general manager two hours before the draft.

9) Johan Petro New Jersey Nets ( 3 yrs. $10 million)- Petro backed up Denver bigs Kenyon Martin, Nene, and Chris “Birdman” Anderson last season. So when playoff time came and Martin and Birdman were banged up and Nene blew out his knee in Game 5 of Denver’s first round series against Utah, the Nuggets actually needed Petro to do something. Petro responded by getting outhustled by Utah’s two backup centers, Kosta Koufos and Kyrylo Fesenko. Granted, jersey didn’t pay Petro all that much, but you can find better in the Developmental League.

8) Al Harrington Denver Nuggets ( 5 yrs $34 million) - This is a partially guaranteed deal. The Nuggets have a buyout for Harrington in the 4th year, so they’re only on the hook for $28 million for 3 years. Here’s the problem. Considering that they reside on the wrong end of the luxury tax line, shouldn’t they have been positive that Carmelo Anthony was going to sign his extension before making this kind of financial commitment. Without Anthony, Denver would be smart to get young and cheap. And let’s face it, Big Al isn’t either. And the next guy Harrington defends will be his first.

7) Hakim Warrick Phoenix Suns ( 4 yrs $18 million)- Things like this happen when an owner (Robert Sarver) decides to lowball one of the best young GMs in the game ( Steve Kerr) and get his bluff called when the GM decides to just quit. I wish I was a fly on the wall in the Suns offices when someone uttered the words, “Warrick would be a good guy to replace Stoudemire…”. I don’t mean to be unkind, but this guy has struggled to stay in the rotation on 3 different teams. He is too small to be effective inside and isn’t a natural perimeter player. But the good news for the Suns is that he’ll fit right in because he doesn’t guard anyone. Just for the record, the Suns spent $18 million over 4 years for a guy that they could have gotten on a cheap one year deal or they could have allowed someone else to grossly overpay.

6) Joe Johnson Atlanta Hawks ( 6 yrs. $120 million)- Well, where do I start? I’m not sure what games Hawks ownership were watching during the playoffs but Johnson didn’t look like a franchise player that gets max money and gets a team built around him. In Johnson’s earlier years in the league, he was what Clark Kellogg likes to refer to as a stat sheet stuffer. Whatever his team needed on a particular night, he would provide. The player I saw in this past year’s playoffs was a high volume, low percentage shooter who stopped getting other people involved and didn’t defend well. Furthermore, Atlanta has to make a major financial decision on center Al Horford very soon. If they can’t pay Horford because of the absurd money they paid Johnson, they’ll have taken a strong hand and burned it up. Atlanta’s future runs through their athletic bigs, Josh Smith and Horford. Letting Johnson go would not have been a great P.R. move in Atlanta, but it would have been the proper long term move for the organization, as long as they were committed to keeping Horford. They may have taken a step or two back this season, but they would have had a promising, flexible future. Instead, they’ll occupy NBA no mans land ( 5-7 playoff seed), with nothing but downside in the East.

5) Chris Duhon Orlando Magic (4 yrs. $15 million)- In Duhon’s two years with the Knicks, he represented everything that was wrong with the system New York was attempting to run. He wasn’t fast enough to push the ball, didn’t shoot well enough to be considered a threat, didn’t guard enough to stop anyone, and didn’t take care of the basketball very well. Orlando’s big problem in their playoff loss to Boston was their inability to push the tempo effectively. If they were planning on signing a point guard to complement and relieve Jameer Nelson, they would have been better off committing this money to Jordan Farmar. Instead they get a player who’s overmatched against every guard he’ll go up against on Boston, Miami, or Chicago. And if Orlando wants to get to the finals again, they’ll have to beat two of those teams. Chris Duhon hurts much more than he helps.

4) David Lee Golden State Warriors (6 yrs. $80 million)- My favorite expression to describe David Lee is that if you handed him a sword, a red hat, and a uniform, he couldn’t guard Buckingham Palace. Lee is a player who looks wonderful on a stat sheet. But he doesn’t defend and doesn’t ever box out. His rebounding numbers are emptier than Rex Ryan’s plate. And the worse thing for Golden State is that they gave the Knicks promising young big man Anthony Randolph for the right to obscenely over pay Lee. The good news is that Lee’s defense won’t look unfamiliar to the Warriors. I can think of many many other ways to burn $80 million that are a lot more fun.

3) Richard Jefferson San Antonio Spurs (4 yrs. $39 million)- When I saw Richard Jefferson had opted out of his last year with the Spurs at $15 million, I thought Jefferson had either lost his mind or was an enormously stupid egomaniac. But when I saw what the Spurs decided to pay him, it became blatantly obvious that the fix was in. San Antonio GM R.C. Buford is one of the best in the business. He would never bid against himself for a player who appeared to be such a poor fit for the Spurs. Head coach Gregg Popovich made it obvious that he had very little patience for Jefferson’s game. Jefferson is a curious story. He made his way in this league by being an incredibly athletic wing player who was an extremely effective perimeter defender. He would attack the rim in the half court and score frequently on the break. As soon as he got his big contract from the Nets he became a high volume perimeter shooter who treated defense as a convenience. Last season the Spurs saw both Jeffersons. The Spurs were evidently desperate to get under the luxury tax and give Tim Duncan two more chances to run at a title by keeping anyone they had to on the board. This is a very obvious “wink-wink” deal between Jefferson and the Spurs considering how out of character a signing like this is for Buford. For the Spurs’ sake, I hope they’re getting the good Jefferson because $38 million is a lot of coin for a guy who has the potential to be a regular inhabitant in Popovich’s dog house.

2) Amir Johnson Toronto Raptors (5 yrs. $32 million)- I understand the Raptors were a little desperate to replace their South Beach Super Hero, but Johnson is not and never will be the answer. Although he can score inside, he commits fouls at an alarming rate. Furthermore, he’s a black hole in the post. Once the ball goes in, it never goes out. He is incredibly unproven and very frankly, has done nothing to justify a contract this size. And after drafting a promising young big in the first round in North Carolina’s Ed Davis, I am completely puzzled as to what Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo was thinking in so grossly overpaying Johnson. This is not the type of signing that will help the Raptors recover quickly from the loss of you know who.

1) Darko Milicic Minnesota Timberwolves ( 4 yrs. $20 million)- Minnesota GM David Kahn has been as maligned as any other executive in the game. The way I see it, Kahn’s biggest issue is that he gets too bold for his own good. A wise man once told me that there is a fine line between brilliance and stupidity and no other personnel man straddles that line as awkwardly. When Kahn went out on a limb in the 2009 draft and selected point guards Ricky Rubio and Johnny Flynn back to back, I thought there was something visionary about it, even though he was widely ridiculed. The fact that Kahn drafted two pick and roll point guards seemed to vacate his mind, when he hired Kurt Rambis as his head coach after the draft. Rambis is a Phil Jackson disciple who employs a triangle offense which uses very little pick and roll ( as I alluded to earlier). Flynn has been less than useless and Rubio has stayed far away, which brings us to Darko…..
Milicic’s claim to fame is that he was the bust in the 2003 draft that brought the NBA some of its biggest stars. Milicic was selected in front of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade. Milicic has had a miserable career so far. He couldn’t crack the rotation last season on the 29 win Knicks. He was traded to Minnesota at the deadline and averaged 8 points and 5 ½ rebounds per game playing an average of 25 minutes. Kahn got himself so excited by this, all because Milicic was actually putting forth effort on the basketball court, that he decided that he had to have him back. Kahn wasn’t bidding against himself. Milicic certainly could have made this type of money in Europe. But it’s inexplicable that Kahn wouldn’t let him go. Worse than that, The Milicic signing created such a logjam in Minnesota’s front court, that Kahn was forced to move Al Jefferson for cents on the dollar. My father has an expression for GMs like Kahn. He could screw up a one car funeral procession.


Top Ten Observations taken from the Summer League and World Championships


10) It looks like one year in Greece did wonders for Linas Kleiza. Kleiza looked like a different player athletically in the World Championships than he did two seasons ago when he played for Denver. He was the biggest reason for Lithuania’s success in this tournament. If he plays like that for the Raptors this season, they’ll have gotten a bargain for 4 years and $18 million.

9) If I’m Phil Jackson, Mitch Kupchak, and the rest of the Lakers’ front office, I’m not exactly getting warm and fuzzies watching Lamar Odom play for the U.S. in the World Championships. Don’t get me wrong. Odom has been extremely effective and played his role very well. U.S. coach Mike Krzyzewski has needed Odom to play center and Odom has been predictably excellent has the Team USA’s main big man. What concerns me about Odom is that he looks tired on the court. He definitely doesn’t appear in peak condition and it appears as though playing competitively through June and then restarting again in August has tremendously fatigued him. Odom is not as young as springtime anymore. If Big Chief Triangle is watching, he’s understanding the importance of limiting Odom’s minutes early in the season to give the Lakers the best chance to three-peat.

8) The best point guard I saw in Vegas was undoubtedly Ty Lawson of Denver. Lawson definitely hit a rookie wall last year in Denver. But I will repeat what I’ve believed about Lawson since his junior year at North Carolina. He has the potential to be one of the best 5 point guards in the NBA and I think that ascension will begin this coming season.

7) I was completely surprised with how well Ed Davis played for Toronto in Vegas. Davis was a high potential, average production player in college. He was projected to be a top 10 pick in the 2010 draft, but ended up falling to 13. My initial thoughts on Davis were that he wasn’t going to be strong enough to play in the NBA. But he looked anything but in Vegas. Granted, it was only Vegas, but Davis looked like he has what it takes to cut it as a legitimate big forward. We’ll see what the season holds, but I’m preparing my mea culpa…..

6) As long as I’m setting up mea culpas, I might as well take a minute and hurt my arm as I pat myself on my ample back. In my draft preview, I went against the grain and called for Philadelphia to take Kentucky center DeMarcus Cousins. After watching summer league action in Vegas and Orlando, the Sixers are probably wondering the same thing. Philly’s pick, the second pick in the draft Evan Turner did not look good in Orlando. Granted, it’s only the summer league and these players are relative babies in the basketball world, but after seeing Cousins show off some perimeter skills we didn’t see at Kentucky, if I had passed on him for anyone but John Wall, I’d be physically ill. Turner still might be a very good NBA player, but despite Cousins occasional bouts with immaturity, big men with his type of skill don’t come along that often. And as far as Cousins anger issues go, I am going to invoke the words of former Georgetown coach, John Thompson. When asked about Cousins, Thompson observed that it’s much easier to dial down a young player’s angry edge than try to create an angry edge on a guy who doesn’t have one. Read the last line again and think Derrick Favors.

5) As those of you who regularly read this space would know, if Jeff Van Gundy was a cult leader, I wouldn’t only be a member. I would be his lead recruiter. I’ve heard Jeff discuss on a few different occasions how impressed he was with Nicholas Batum of the Portland Trailblazers. Batum has been injured for significant portions of the last two seasons. In watching Batum play for France in this summer’s FIBA World Championships, I’ve gotten to see exactly what Jeff is talking about. Batum is an extremely disruptive perimeter defender. At his best, Batum is so active that he creates turnovers and transition baskets. If he can find a way to stay healthy in the NBA, he will provide an excellent wing complement to Brandon Roy in Portland. As usual, Jeff knows the gospel.

4) One of the more compelling games of the World Championships was the United States’ slim victory over Brazil during the round robin phase of the tournament. And the most impressive thing about that game was the way Brazil big man Tiago Splitter gave the U.S. big men fits. Splitter has not yet played in the NBA, but was signed to a three year deal by the San Antonio Spurs. Splitter looks to be the best big man complement the Spurs have had since David Robinson. He has no issue playing physical. He appears to be a legitimate 6’10”. And he plays well in the post, both offensively and defensively. He is a quick player inside, normally making his post move very quickly when he gets the ball. He will be an enormous help to San Antonio and just may be the reason that the Spurs become the Lakers chief competition to win the West.

3) Besides for Pau Gasol. Ricky Rubio and Rudy Fernandez are the most celebrated players hailing from Spain. After watching these two play in the World Championships, I really do not understand why. Rubio is a skilled ball handler, a terrific passer, and looks great of those little running one handed shots in the lane. However, he is one of the worst over-dribblers I’ve ever seen and is a very poor defender. His defense is so bad, I wouldn’t let him guard my spot in line at the bank. Rubio may make a nice sideshow in the NBA, but he has a long way to go before he’s a big time point guard. Fernandez can shoot from long range, score in bunches, and jump out of the gym. But he plays undisciplined, turnover prone, stupid basketball. His shot selection is garbage and his effort comes and goes way too much for my liking. He also treats defense as an occasional convenience. He supposedly isn’t happy in Portland with head coach Nate McMillan. Frankly, he strikes me as a guy who may not be happy anywhere.

2) The most improved player I saw this entire summer was Toronto guard Demar Derozan. Derozan looked terrific playing on the Raptors entry in Vegas. Admittedly, I was not a big fan of Derozan when Toronto drafted him last year after playing only his freshman year at USC. Derozan was (and still is) extremely athletic , but was very raw and immature. The player I saw in Vegas was anything but raw and immature. Not only has Derozan worked on his perimeter shooting, he’s worked on his pull up game as well. And he has learned relatively quickly how his tremendous athleticism can translate into superior defense if applied properly. If Derozan can carry this momentum over into the season, he’ll be a big help to the Raptors. After the summer performances of Derozan, Ed Davis and Linas Kleiza, the Raptors may be able to recover from the loss of their South Beach Super Hero pretty quickly. ( I know I promised not to reference the Super Heroes, but I didn’t say his name!!!)

1) I discovered this summer that it is truly impossible to love basketball and not get thoroughly excited watching Kevin Durant play. It’s not news that Durant was the best player to set foot on the court in the World Championships. Frankly, there was no one else even close. The two things that I found amazing about Durant were his killer instinct when games are on the line and his profound commitment to being the best defender he can be. It seems like Durant discovered what it takes to be an elite defender while defending Kobe Bryant in Game 3 of the first round of this past season’s playoffs. Durant smothered Kobe at crunch time and hasn’t looked back. And offensively, he has the unique ability to assume his team’s primary scoring responsibility taking very few bad shots. Watching Durant’s ascension into superstardom will be one of the most interesting stories to watch this coming season and that includes a certain team that plays in a state that borders the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Since I’m coming dangerously close to breaking my promise about not mentioning the Miami Unmentionables, I’m going to wrap this up. Giddyap. Y’all be cool.

You can follow me on Twitter @bgeltz.

The Damage left in Lebron’s wake




This has been the most publicized off season in the storied history of the NBA. Lebron James is the most high profile free agent in the history of sports (just ask him). Six different NBA franchises executed organizational plans that were designed around bringing James to their franchise. Only one was successful. As this process played out, James inflicted plenty of damage. And to the same extent, five of the six of these organizations did damage to themselves. As you’ll see in this column, some hurt themselves more than others.

I’m going to divide this column into two parts, the damage that James and his tentacles (advisors, business interests, etc. ) inflicted and the damage that others inflicted upon themselves by hitching their wagon to Lebron Inc. The second part will be how these teams allowed the allure of Lebron Inc to damage their own organizations. Before I proceed, I would like to acknowledge that I had been telling anyone and everyone who would listen (even some that wouldn’t), that James was going back to Cleveland. I was dead wrong. Although, I still believe the smartest move would have been for him to remain in Cleveland for a variety of reasons that are not relevant for the purposes of this column, but I digress. Any criticism that I level at James in this column is not sour grapes. As a Knick fan, I never believed he was coming to New York, even when told that by reliable sources. And I actually am in the minority in believing that Miami’s assemblage of egomaniacs is good for the league. As a society, we like to love, but we love to hate. This version of the Miami Heat have given us a team that’s very easy to hate. That level of hatred will make for compelling theater, which I always favor.


Lebron’s Share


There’s a scene in the movie “A League of their Own” when Geena Davis’ character Dottie Henson is going to leave her baseball team to go home with her husband from Illinois to Oregon right before their World Series is to be played. Tom Hanks’ character, her manager Jimmy Dugan, tells her in his plea to get her to stay, “ I am in no position to tell someone how to live but….” That kind of sums up my feelings about James.

The NBA players association works very hard on the players behalf when they collectively bargain. Free agency is some thing that the players association fights hard for and is successful in accomplishing. If a player, ANY player, becomes a free agent, said player has a collectively bargained right to play wherever said player chooses. I just can’t jump on this bandwagon of criticism directed at James for choosing to play for Miami. As a member of the players association, leaving for Miami was well within his rights. The players association could take issue with the Three AmEGOS, taking less money right before another CBA negotiation, but that’s a discussion for another day. For anyone, especially the Cleveland Cavalier organization, to accuse him of an act of betrayal is patently absurd and unfair. I heard Eric Snow on NBA TV recently make a point that Cavs owner Dan Gilbert ought to look in the mirror when he publicly accosts James for treason considering that he just punted a head coach who led his team to consecutive 60 win seasons with a finals appearance and a conference final appearance in the last 4 years in the name of making James happy. Gilbert threw Mike Brown to the wolves. Karma is a tough broad. Eric Snow has it on target.

I have no issue with Lebron leaving Cleveland. The actual decision to sign with the Miami Heat and join his two friends in and of itself is really beyond reproach. However, there are times in our lives when what we do matters a lot less than how we do it. To say the very least, the methodology that James chose to employ to execute this decision left a lot to be desired.

Throughout this free agency process, the basketball watching world learned a lot more about James than we ever did…or maybe ever cared to. We found out that James was an enormous fan of Family Guy, The Sopranos, and passing wind. Since I don’t watch the Family Guy and I don’t really have any wisdom associated with passing wind, I’m going to use a Sopranos quote to illustrate that Lebron may have been watching, but he definitely wasn’t listening.

In the 12th episode of Season Two of the Sopranos, Tony Soprano is hosting a meeting under a few umbrellas about a particular township garbage contract. As he delivers the news that this contract will not be going to his future brother in law Richie Aprile, he lets Richie know in no uncertain terms, “Those that want respect, give respect.” Keep in mind that later in this same episode, Richie took a bullet from the chest courtesy of Tony’s crazy sister Janice, but I digress. James wants the world to respect his decision. It is very hard to respect a decision made by a person who showed no respect in delivering that decision.

There was no excuse for a one hour TV special. Paying a TV interviewer to lob softballs to you while you announce a decision that begs several difficult questions is disingenuous at best and downright insulting at worst. It’s a transparent tactic. James endorses several products that the basketball watching public purchase regularly. James treated his customer base like ignorant sheep. And ESPN ought to be ashamed of themselves for completely ignoring the line between entertainment and journalism by indulging this conceited child and his empire. On the Mike and Mike show on ESPN Radio Friday, Stuart Scott spun a tale that Lebron staged this one hour special exclusively for philanthropic reasons. Pull this leg and it plays jingle bells. The worst part about it for ESPN is that if they are asked to participate again in assisting a superstar athlete in contriving a reality show and trying to pass it off as reality, they will say yes again.

The existence of a one hour special to announce something that could have been addressed in a 20 minute press conference on its own is indulgent and nervy. But when you combine that with the role it played in James treating his old team like a dog treats a fire hydrant, you have narcissism at its absolute finest. For the exception of the meeting that the Cavaliers had with James, same as five other teams, Lebron did not have contact with the Cavs organization since the season ended. Dan Gilbert claims to have called and texted several times. Tom Izzo, a bystander in all of this, called because he was a candidate to coach the Cavs. James called no one back. The Cavaliers were informed of James’ decision at 9:01PM the hour the decision was being announced publicly. And Lebron didn’t make the phone call. He was primping for Jim Gray to be his ego’s prostitute. The member of Lebron Inc., who drew the short straw got stuck making the call. And as inappropriate that Gilbert’s open letter to Cavs fans was, I completely understand his anger at the extreme disrespect. This story was leaked first thing Thursday morning. People like Chris Broussard, Stephen A. Smith, Alan Hahn, Michael Wilbon…even Mike Francesa of WFAN in New York knew that James picked Miami before Dan Gilbert knew.

James reserved his worst disrespect for the loyal fans of Cleveland. He’s a hometown boy. He’s supposed to identify with the people of that region. They did not deserve to be collateral damage in a reality show gone bad. They deserved more of an explanation from him than the horse manure he shoveled onto Robin Roberts on Friday’s Good Morning America. James made an analogy to “ending a relationship with a lady” in explaining his decision to Roberts. Now I’ve seen some hit and run artists in my time, but I’ve never seen a guy bail on a 7 year relationship, by not calling anymore and waiting to tell the girl they broke up until 27 minutes before he was about to get engaged to someone else. But Lebron made it all about him. When asked by Rachel Nichols of ESPN if he spoke to anyone with the Cavs personally, is answer was, “I didn’t speak to anyone personally. I wanted it to be all about me. “ If that was the goal, then it was a smashing success.

The saddest part of all is that maybe if Lebron had somebody advising him besides his high school buddies (i.e. yes men) , there was a simple, polite, respectful, and compassionate series of actions James could have taken that could have preserved his image as a likable guy. Firstly, and quite obviously, bag the one hour special. Next, before you even tell your Mom, tell Dan Gilbert face to face. It’s a business decision. Gilbert understands business, even if he doesn’t agree with it. Shake his hand and look him in the eye. Be contrite. Thank him for the last 7 years. He wouldn’t have been happy, but he would have respected the approach. Next, leak it to Brian Windhorst of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. He earned it. Next, announce it in a traditional press conference. Answer the reporters’ questions. Use this forum to celebrate your future. Next, write an open letter to Cleveland fans and put it in a full page ad in the Plain Dealer. Thank them. Reinforce to them that they were great and were not the reason you left. They still might hate you, but deep down they would still respect you. Then, lastly, sell a one hour no holds barred interview to the highest bidder. Answer everything thrown at you with no restrictions on what can be asked. Use an interviewer who’s not on your pay roll. And donate the proceeds to the charity of your choice.

Instead we get the silliest hour in the history of television. We get Dwyane Wade telling an arena full of people that they are the best trio in the history of basketball, even though there is one championship between the three of them and one of them wouldn’t know what the playoffs were if they bit him on his backside. And most of all, we get Lebron on stage wearing that silly headband with diamond earrings. Frankly, he looked like Luke Wilson’s character from the Royal Tennenbaums, Richie Tennenbaum. Richie was the character who tanked the finals of the U.S. Open because he had a crush on his adoptive sister. Insert Delonte West joke here……..


The Price of Chasing Lebron


In reading the abusive and scathing open letter that Dan Gilbert wrote to Cavs fans, there is an anger that comes off the page that seems a little misdirected. No doubt he deservedly felt abused by James. But there is a part of that anger that Gilbert is directing at James that he should be directing at himself. His general manager Danny Ferry did a very poor job of surrounding James with the type of complimentary players From Larry Hughes to Ben Wallace to Mo Williams to Shaquille O’Neal to Antawn Jamison, they could never get him enough help. And in all fairness to James, he’s been saying for at least 2 years that he will explore free agency. They stubbornly held onto J.J. Hickson all of last year when he was clearly a piece who could have brought in help for James.

The acquisition of Shaquille O’Neal was misguided and was a feeble attempt to match up with Dwight Howard. Although James embraced Shaq, you never got the feeling he was all that thrilled with having to play with him. And Shaq’s brick sneakers were a major liability in defending the pick and roll out top. When Ferry did fulfill James’ request and traded for Antawn Jamison, the Cavs identity as a tough half court defensive team was fading. Jamison’s weak defense was a major liability which got exposed even worse once Shaq came back from injury to play next to him. The Cavs did not have Jamison and Shaq together until the start of the playoffs. By the time they realized that these two guarded the rim like those two soldiers guarded the Czechoslovakian border in the movie “Stripes”, the season was slipping away and Lebron was pouting.

They also handled Lebron terribly. They allowed him to break team rules at will. They traded for players he wanted. They allowed his friends to travel with the team. They pressured the coach to give playing to the players Lebron wanted out there. And before you ask the question….yes, my sources are very good. They allowed him to tune out the coach, even to the point of having an assistant coach play go between because Lebron didn’t like the head coach. Yet, they made him accountable for nothing. The Cavs became like an overly permissive parent of a teenager who gets walked all over. As an organization, they didn’t command enough respect from Lebron. It doesn’t absolve Lebron’s actions. But the Cavs are extremely naïve if they don’t examine their own culpability in this organizational disaster.

So, where to from here? Cleveland now has $12 million in cap space. Rumors are abound that Cleveland is talking to Minnesota about Al Jefferson. That would be a hasty foolish move for Cleveland. They have four expiring contracts in Delonte West, Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker, and Sebastian Telfair which, combined with their current $12 million, will give them two open max slots for next year. If they suck it up for a year or two and land in the lottery, the draft picks and cap space will allow them to get it turned around quick, just like Portland did under Kevin Pritchard. To the Cavs credit, they swallowed their pride and did and sign and trade with Miami to grab a max trade exception and two first round draft picks. Cleveland is closer to getting this thing turned around then it appears.

The New York Knicks have undertaken a personnel strategy that was completely focused on getting under the salary cap. Knick GM Donnie Walsh did an extremely efficient job of bringing in players with expiring contracts. And thanks to Donnie’s maneuvers, the Knicks had enough cap space to sign Amare Stoudemire. But make no mistake, the entire strategy was employed to sign James.

This tunnel vision philosophy certainly had its advantages that I will get into shortly. But there was a big price to pay. Now, I am going to spare you the repetitive soliloquy about how misguided a draft pick Jordan Hill was. But, considering that New York was not successful in landing James, it is relevant to revisit the twisted logic behind the disastrous trade deadline deal that moved Jared Jeffries, Hill, and two first rounders for the expiring contract of Tracy McGrady and a much later first rounder. The whole philosophy behind this deal was to create enough cap room to allow James to “bring a friend” as if the Knicks rebuilding process was akin to parents taking their teenager on vacation.

So now that its time to enact Plan B, where has this left the Knicks? Stoudemire was a good signing and one that they needed desperately. And the sign and trade deal that sent David Lee to Golden State was a stroke of genius. Anthony Randolph replaces one of the first rounders that was dealt and has the potential to be a big time player. As far as the trade market is concerned, he qualifies as an asset. Ronny Turiaf will start at center and is a good compliment to Stoudemire. I also really like the signing of point guard Raymond Felton. Although his annual salary is high, the fact that the contract is only a 2 year guarantee allows the Knicks added flexibility. Felton also has a lot of skill. He’s a good defensive player, is adept at getting into the paint in the half court, and shoots very selectively. If they could not get a maximum salary quality player to play point guard, Felton is a great choice.

Acquiring Felton would have been harder without the Jeffries trade, although far from impossible. Jeffries contract expires at the end of this season, just like Eddy Curry’s. In the NBA’s crazy convoluted system (where a retired Rasheed Wallace is an asset because of his contract), Jeffries and Curry qualify as assets. They get a team out from under a longer contract that they no longer care to pay. To sacrifice 2 potentially high first round picks (the Randolph signing cancels out Hill’s inclusion), to dump a contract expiring at the end of next season is a great way to run an organization into the ground. First round picks are insurance against underachieving. The Knicks would be much better off if they didn’t decide that Lebron would be happier here if he got to bring a friend. And this will be the main reason that the best the Knicks can hope for in the next 3 years is to occupy space in NBA no man’s land.

The Chicago Bulls were a team that gave us an all time first round series last season in their 7 game loss to the Boston Celtics. They looked like a team on the rise, but they certainly took a step back this season, even though they lost in the first round again. They made a great decision in last year’s off season in deciding not to re-sign Guard Ben Gordon, who ended up getting absurdly overpaid by Joe Dumars’ Detroit Pistons. Even though they did not have a great year, they still understand that they have a very bright future ahead because of point guard Derrick Rose and center Joakim Noah.

The Bulls decision to clear cap space to make a run at James was the best option for their organization. Rose and Noah provided for a very enticing core. So, midseason, the Bulls shipped out John Salmons for expiring contracts. It hurt them on the court, but it made sense. James alone would have made the Bulls a title contender. And if they didn’t get James, there were other premium players available to them. That end worked out nicely for the Bulls. They didn’t get Lebron, but they were able to sign Carlos Boozer, who is an excellent fit and also makes them a title contender. I also want to give the Bulls a lot of credit for not caving into James’ need for special accommodations. According to Brian Windhorst, the Bulls refused to allow James’ friends to travel with the team. They refused to employ any of James’ friends as the Cavs did. And they made it clear that James was not going to have input on how the franchise was run.

Where the Bulls hurt themselves in their pursuit of James was not as severe as what the Knicks did, but damaging nonetheless. They too fell for the “let Lebron bring a friend” trap. Getting two premium players is a great thing if you can pull it off. Ask Pat Riley, who managed to sign three. However, when that is not a guarantee, a franchise needs to carefully examine what they are going to lose just for the ability to chase a star. In the Bulls case, it was versatile guard Kirk Hinrich. On draft day, the Bulls shipped Hinrich and the # 17 pick in the draft to Washington for essentially nothing (a future 2nd rounder). This created enough cap space that was close to a maximum slot. In the end, the Bulls still only got Boozer. They signed Kyle Korver as well, but they could have done that without trading Hinrich. And even though Washington used their pick on Kevin Seraphin, the Bulls could have easily drafted James Anderson, who was a better fit for them and been much further along in their quest to win a title. The Bulls have signed J.J. Redick to an offer sheet, but all signs point to Orlando matching it, and the Bulls having that cap space tied up for the better part of a week. The Bulls will still be a contender for the Eastern Conference title this year, but they could have been in a much more advantageous position if they did not swing for the fences. No matter who else they bring in, it is going to be a tall order for the player to be an upgrade from Hinrich.

Less than two short months ago, everything was looking up for the New Jersey Nets. It was Tuesday May 18th, 2010 and the Nets were had the best mathematical chance to win the lottery and the right to select the consensus best player in the draft in Kentucky guard John Wall. The Nets had ample cap space to add a premium free agent and Jersey was starting to be considered an attractive free agent destination largely because of their new owner, Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov. The ping pong balls didn’t fall the Nets way as they ended up with the third pick in a draft when they coveted two players.

In the days leading up to the draft, Jersey GM Rod Thorn feverishly tried to trade the third pick, but in the end selected Georgia Tech forward Derrick Favors. Then, less than a week after the draft, the most stable factor within the Nets organization, Rod Thorn, decided to step down as of July 15th. Not only were the Nets going to be making recruiting visits with a lame duck GM, but they needed to embark on a search for a brand new GM. Essentially, after planning for two years to be players in the 2010 free agent market, they were completely neutralized less than a week before the process began. When the Nets should have been talking to Amare Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer, they were talking to Jeff Bower and Joe Dumars. Now, don’t get me wrong. The Nets had conversations with Stoudemire with Boozer. They even made Boozer an offer. But they inexplicably came up short on the money and lost him to Chicago.

Instead the Nets have chosen to spend this cap space on a potpourri of role players who have never really done anything in the league. They gave Travis Outlaw $7 million a year. Outlaw has had his moments. He can shoot and defend a little, but he hasn’t been healthy and he hasn’t been consistent. They acquired in a sign and trade a one dimensional player in Anthony Morrow for $4 million a year. Morrow can shoot, but he’s an off guard who can’t defend. They signed center Johan Petro, who got eaten alive in the playoffs by Utah’s second AND third string centers for $3 million a year. And they signed former Laker point guard Jordan Farmar for $4 million a year. As much as I’d like to criticize this signing, I really do like Farmar. My problem with the whole thing is that the Lakers are paying the pu-pu platter of Outlaw, Morrow, Petro, and Farmar almost the equivalent of one max contract. These are four players who should be the 7th,8th,9th, and 10th players on their team. They waited for Lebron with all of this salary cap space and they appear to have squandered a great deal of it. Its great to build a bench, but generally the starting lineup is a little more important. This does not appear to be an auspicious start for Comrade Prokhorov.

Speaking of Prokhorov, I kind of figure that he had to do something pretty bad to Thorn for Thorn to leave him in the lurch the way he did. My guess is that it had something to do with not trading the Favors pick because all I hear out of Net land is that the Nets need to sign a power forward. I hate to be the master of the obvious, but they didn’t they just use the third pick in the draft on a power forward. I’m trying to reserve judgment until their roster is complete, but it is not easy. The signing of Farmar could signal that a Devin Harris trade is coming. Avery Johnson tells the media that Harris is like a son to him, then as soon as the microphones are turned off and the pens are put away, he tells whoever will listen that he wants Harris dealt.

The Los Angeles Clippers probably emerged from their failed pursuit of Lebron with the least amount of damage as anybody and there is a very simple reason why. They never really had a chance in the first place and they knew it. Sure, they cleared a max slot and they had a meeting with Lebron, but they knew he wasn’t coming. Unfortunately for the Clippers, they used some of that cap space to sign Minnesota rejects Randy Foye and Ryan Gomes. Foye is an off guard in a point guard’s body and Gomes can score but has not shown much of an inclination to pass or defend. With the pending return of Blake Griffin, the Clippers may have been better off doing nothing and rolling over the cap space to next year. It would have been smarter to give Griffin a year to prove himself and maybe they would be in a position next year to bring in more of a premium player through free agency or in a trade.

And now to the victor, go the spoils. The one team that hit the lottery in this whole bonanza was the Miami Heat. Their President and GM Pat Riley pulled off a coup for the ages. For that he deserves a mountain of credit. It also begs the question, will the Heat be able to win next June like they just won this July.

My short answer is no. I certainly would like to see what kind of group Riley is able to bring in to surround Batman, Captain America and Aqua Man. I refer to Bosh as Aqua Man because he’s the super hero who’s never saved anyone, but I digress. Eventually this group may win a title, but I don’t believe its going to happen next year. I think the Celtics and maybe even the Bulls can match up with them well. And if they do reach the finals, I believe that they cannot play defense well enough to beat the Lakers.

One last thought on the combination of James, Wade, and Bosh. In the interviews they have done since they made a decision to play together, they have frequently referenced their experience together on the 2008 USA Olympic basketball team that won the gold medal. The one prevailing thought that I can’t shake about that reference, is that would these three guys still think that they had such a great experience winning together if Kobe Bryant didn’t bail them out and take over in the last 3 minutes of the gold medal game against Spain?

I’ll be back next week with my own unique perspective on who signed good contracts and who signed bad ones. Giddyap. Y’all be cool.