A Trade Deadline Tribute to Roger Ebert



I was always a big fan of the show Siskel and Ebert. These two movie critics gave brutally honest appraisals of movies with a good cop/badcop approach. Roger Ebert was the bad cop. Sort of a Simon Cowell with a pot belly and glasses. Yet, deep down he was a big mush. Put him in front of Terms of Endearment and he'd blubber like an infant. These days Roger is suffering from cancer. Its cost him his ability to speak. But it has not cost him his ability to write. Esquire Magazine just did a feature on him and frankly his spirit is an amazing inspiration. So as a tribute to the chubby, bespectacled movies' version of Simon Cowell, I will adopt the thumbs up thumbs down approach patented by Siskel and Ebert as I break down one of the more interesting trade deadlines in recent memory.


The Dallas Mavericks earn themselves a thumbs up with the acquisition of Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. They shipped out Josh Howard and a handful of expiring contracts, right before Howard blew out his knee. Haywood will do for Dallas what they would love to get from Erick Dampier, but Dampier just isn't healthy. And Haywood and Butler help the Mavs match up better with the Lakers, which is crucial for a team in the West with title aspirations. The one caveat we have to say about the Mavericks is that the willingness to spend a lot of money is an enormous advantage in being able to add talent when so many teams in the league are bleeding cash.

The Washington Wizards also earn a thumbs up. I have been extremely critical of Wizard GM Ernie Grunfeld for his draft day trade last season that amounted to a lost opportunity at acquiring Ricky Rubio. But Grunfeld's ability to extricate the Wizards from the contracts of Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison will certainly accelerate the rebuilding process. Now if Ernie were a true magician, he's wave a magic wand and make the $90 million owed to Gilbert Arenas just vanish away. And the players that he added, Josh Howard and Al Thornton have some upside. The Wizards had a free look at both of them, until Howard went out for the year. If Thornton can lose the attitude, they may have something.

I'm going to give the L.A. Clippers a thumbs up as well. As lopsided as the Marcus Camby for Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw looked, it wasn't terrible when you realize that they were not planning on bringing Camby back and they get a free look at Outlaw, who they may keep or use in a sign and trade after the season. And their participation in the Antawn Jamison trade, essentially shedding Al Thornton's contract and making themselves a player in this year's free agency class makes the Clippers winners this week. So Clipper fans can enjoy he next few months until the reality sets in that no star player in their right mind would choose to go to the most cursed franchise in all of sports. And if you think I'm being extreme, inject Blake Griffin with some truth serum and see if he agrees.

The Portland Trailblazers land themselves a thumbs up also. Their acqusition of Marcus Camby fills a gaping hole in the middle created by injuries to Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla. The Oden draft decision over Kevin Durant from 2 1/2 years ago is looming as Sam Bowie/Michael Jordan light. And Przybilla needs to go on Wheel of Fortune to buy a vowel, but I digress. Camby will give Portland a chance to win a round or maybe two in the playoffs as long as Brandon Roy is healthy. And since the two players they gave up both had expirng contracts (Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw) and play positions where Portland has lots of depth, this was a smart redeploying of assets by Blazer GM Kevin Pritchard. And considering that Camby's contract is expiring as well, Pritchard played this real well. Unfortunately for the Blazers, with the Lakers, Nuggets, and Mavericks in the West, its kind of a moot point.

I'm going to go against some conventional wisdom here and give the Milwaukee Bucks a thumbs down on their acquisition of John Salmons from the Bulls. Considering the fact that the best the Bucks can hope for is to put up a decent fight in the first round against the Cavaliers or the Magic, is it really that helpful to take on Salmons $5.8 contract? Granted, they didn't give up much. Joe Alexander and Hakim Warrick were only collecting splinters in their fannies on the end of the Milwaukee bench. But I just don't see how taking on Salmons money is going to help the Bucks make it to the next level.

The Chicago Bulls, on the other hand, earned themselves a thumbs up. Team president John Paxson understands that no matter how well they play in the second half of the season, the odds of them making it past the first round of the playoffs are extremely slim. So by dumping Salmons contract for two expiring deals, they will now have enough cap space to add a maximum contract. That, combined with their promising young core of Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, and Joakim Noah, should make them major players in the 2010 free agency bonanza. This gets a little more intriguing when you consider the fact that Dwyane Wade is part of this illustrious free agent class and Chicago is his home town. And more importantly, if they don't get a max player, they are well positioned with cap space and draft picks to improve this team in the next few years. And as I'll discuss a little later, not everyone was smart enough to put themselves in this kind of position. They also traded Tyrus Thomas and his expiring deal ro Charlotte for Flip Murray and Acie Law, which was cap neutral and qualifies as addition by subtraction for the Bulls

The Cleveland Cavaliers also fall into the thumbs up category. They accomplished two very important things by acquiring Antawn Jamison for Zydrunas Ilgauskas and a first round pick. The first rounder is not very valuable because its guaranteed to be a late first rounder. And with Ilgauskas' expiring contract, he'll be bought out by the Wizards with the ability to go back to the Cavs in 30 days. Which, by the way, is the worst personnel loophole in the history of team sports. The fact that a team can trade a player and get the same player back on their team in 30 days compromises the integrity of the entire league. A rule like that would be grounds for me to drop out of a fantasy league and it goes on in the NBA every year. The Pistons did it with Antonio McDyess last year. The Celtics did it with Gary Payton in 2005. David Stern needs to have this closed up in the next CBA. The good news is that coaches are starting to speak up. Phil Jackson and Doc Rivers both enthusiastically pointed out this injustice to the media this week, but I digress.

The second thing the Cavs accomplished is that they addressed one of the main things that got them sent home early in last year's playoffs. Last year's Cavaliers were not athletic enough to match up with the Orlando Magic. Which is one heck of a statement considering they have the best athlete in the world on their team. Antawn Jamison makes them more athletic and he can match up with Rashard Lewis of Orlando. Lewis was an enormous problem for Cleveland in the Eastern Conference finals last year. These two teams look like they're on a collision course to meet again. Jamison will make Lewis work hard defensively and his ability to score will loosen the offense in the half court. Jamison will help create more perimeter jumpers for Cleveland's shooters and more space for LeBron. The only problem with this deal is that Jamison is signed for this year and two more at $14 million a year. If LeBron leaves, Jamison's contract is a significant rebuilding impediment. Unfortunately for the Cavs, they do not have the luxury of operating with a Plan B in mind (i.e LeBron leaving). If they do, that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy for them and LeBron goes bye-bye. They did what they had to do and increased their chances of winning a title in the process.

The Charlotte Bobcats join the parade of thumbs ups. They acquired Tyrus Thomas from the Bulls for Flip Murray and Acie Law. Law doesn't play and head coach Larry Brown believes that this past year's first round pick Gerald Henderson is ready to contribute to replace Murray. And Thomas gives them an athletic insode presence that they sorely lack because of Tyson Chandler's inability to stay healthy. If Thomas continues to act like am unruly child, his contract expires at the end of the year and they didn't give up very much. Its a nice cheap free look for the Bobcats.

I will once again defy all of the conventional wisdom I have seen and give the New York Knicks an emphatic thumbs down for their deadline dealings. The Nate Robinson to Boston deal was really immaterial unless you're Mike D'Antoni and you're over the moon that you don't have to deal with Sideshow Nate every day. However, I just cannot agree with all of this effusive praise for what it truly cost the Knicks to unload Jared Jeffries contract. The Knicks' end of this three way deal amounted to acquiring Tracy McGrady and his mammoth expiring contract and guard Sergio Rodriguez for Jared Jeffries, last season's ill advised lottery pick Jordan Hill, Larry Hughes' expiring contract, the right for Houston to swap first rounders in 2011(protected if its the 1 pick), and the Knicks first rounder in 2012 (protected if its a top 5 pick). The whole object of this deal for the Knicks is to create enough salary cap space to sign two free agents to maximum contracts this coming offseason, with an obvious eye on LeBron James.

This deal is being lauded in basketball circles as being a stroke of genius by Knick president and GM Donnie Walsh. The Knicks are definitely one of two teams that will be in a position to sign two max players. But, ultimately the cap space is only as good as your ability to get someone to sign with your franchise. It is unpredcedented in NBA history for a team to ostensibly trade the equivalent of 3 first round picks (2009, 2011, and 2012) just to dump a contract. The Knicks have become the equivalent of a Texas hold em player who's sitting on a King-3 and goes all in hoping to flop a King or two (pun intended). If the Knicks are not successful in signing LeBron James, they have crippled their franchise for another 5 years. The worst part is that they didn't need to put all of their eggs in the LeBron basket to have a chance at him.

Jared Jeffries is not signed to a 5 year contract or even a 3 year contract. Jeffries contract runs through the end of next season. Lets say the Knicks had not decided to attach 3 first round picks to Jeffries contract and had stayed put. They would still have their max cap slot for this offseason. After next season they would have another max slot and more in terms of cap space with Jeffries and Ready Eddy Curry going free. Plus they would have their first round picks in 2011 and 2012, which could be lottery picks just in case they can't get anyone to take their money and they still stink. And by the way, the 2011 free agent class doesn't exactly stink either with names like Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Paul due to become free agents. Back in November, I published an open letter to Donnie Walsh on this site, http://hoopscritic.blogspot.com/2009/11/open-letter-to-new-york-knicks.html, essentially asking Donnie what plan B was going to be if LeBron decides that living in New York is better as a concept than a reality. Walsh has emphaticly answered that question. There isn't one. And the worst part about it is that every other team with max cap slots all have a plan B in place in case they don't cash in on a prize the calliber of James, Wade, Bosh, and Joe Johnson. The only team without a plan B is the Cavaliers and they can't have one. A plan B for the Knicks is imperative. And as a Knick fan, the really bothersome things is that if Donnie's all-in bet fails, Donnie's going home to Indiana to retire and we need to start looking towards the 2015-2016 season.

I am going to give the Sacramento Kings a thumbs up for their trade of Kevin Martin for Carl Landry and cap space. Martin and Tyreke Evans were a mismatched backcourt for the Kings, Personally, I'm not as impressed with Martin's game as many others are. Although he's a good shooter and an efficient offensive player, he is a very soft defensive player. And I like Landry a lot more than most. He's a 55% shooter from the field, and 87% free throw shooter. He averages 16 points a game in 27 minutes a game. He is a very athletic and versatile defender and he makes only $3 million a year. He is a long term piece to build around. If the Kings can get themselves a good point guard in place before next season, they could have it turned around quick.

It is impossible not to give the Houston Rockets a thumbs up. GM Daryl Morey's heist on New York would make Tony Soprano proud and Phil Leotardo gargle drano. Even though the Rockets are committed to a few long term salaries, they have a ton of draft picks and are loaded with young assets. My only criticism of Morey is that Carl Landry is a guy I would not have traded. If it was my choice between Landry and Rocket forward Luis Scola, I would have kept Landry. But its impossible to be critical of a deal that gives up Landry and the expiring contract of Tracy McGrady (who Houston sent home), and their middle to low first rounder for Kevin Martin, Jared Jeffries' contract, Jordan Hill and two number one picks that have a likely chance to be lottery picks. If Morey knows what's good for him, he'll remember to pay his tribute and kick upstairs.

The Boston Celtics earned themselves a thumbs down. The acquisition of Nate Robinson is misguided at best and potentially disastrous to team chemistry at worst. The main player they traded in the deal, Eddie House, is a much better fit with the Celtics. The Celtics will quickly tire of Sideshow Nate's selfish preening after a dunk or three pointer as the man he's suppossed to be guarding runs down the court passed him for a layup. They will have very little tolerance for his childish sideline antics. They will soon find that even if he's willing to attempt to play defense, he's so poor fundamentally that he's a liability a team that values half court defense cannot afford. And with the Celtics having rumored chmistry issues (old guys vs. young guys), Nate hasn't exactly always been a unifier. And while we're on the Celtics, when did Rasheed Wallace get breast implants? He needs to call Cosmo Kramer for a bro, or as Frank Costanza would call it, a manzeer, but I digress.

Three teams get thumbs ups from me for doing absolutely nothing at the deadline. The Orlando Magic are deep and talented and are starting to gel together. So much of how far the Magic go will be decided by the play of Vince Carter and Mickael Pietrus. Those two are starting to hit their stride. The East appears to be a two horse race bewteen them and the Cavs.

The Denver Nuggets were in the market for an extra big man. In the end, they didn't add one, which I thought was the right thing. What could help the Nuggets would be more minutes for the Birdman, Chris Anderson. The Nuggets athleticism up front is their biggest asset this side of Carmelo Anthony. Even if they did bring in another big, they function best with two of Nene, Kenyon Martin, and the Birdman on the floor at the same time. They are the only team that I would give a realistic chance in the West to beat the Lakers in a playoff series.

The Phoenix Suns shopped Amare Stoudemire everywhere. In the end, they assumed the risk that Stoudemire could leave at the end of the season and kept him, primarily because they didn't see an offer that was fair value for him. They made the right call. Because Stoudemire is somewhat of a difficult guy, the Suns have a tendency to focus on what Amare doesn't do as opposed to what he does well, like score 22 points a game and pull down rebounds a game playing in an up tempo system that does not necessarily fit his talents. Stoudemire's skill set is actually much more conducive to a slower half court type of system. If they can successfully mend fences with him, because the constant trade rumors do offend him a bit,their best bet is to sign him to an extension. Stoudemire and Robin Lopez can be an imposing front court for the next 5-7 years.

Two other teams get thumbs down for not making moves. The San Antonio Spurs are in trouble. They made their big move in the offseason by trading for Richard Jefferson and Jefferson has been an abject failure. They frankly did not get the player they thought they were getting. Jefferson hasn't been that player since he was with Kenyon Martin and Jason Kidd on the Nets. And the Spurs got stuck holding the bag with Antonio McDyess, who looks like he doesn't have it anymore. They had the expiring contract of Roger Mason to move if they wanted to bring in a reinforcement. But they chose to stand pat as Tim Duncan's championship window closes on their fingers.

This last thumbs down is kind of unfair. With that said, I'm giving the Lakers a small thumbs dcown for not deciding to add Kirk Hinrich and his expensive contract. I will acknowledge that its somewhat obnoxious to expect Laker owner Jerry Buss to continue to add to the highest payroll in the league. Sounds like a Yankee fan mentality, which is something I do not condone. But Hinrich was the perfect player to give the Lakers the separation they need from the pack. Playing point guard next to Kobe Bryant only requires a specific skill set. Next to Bryant, the Lakers need an adequate ball handler, a quick tenacious defender and an accurate outside shooter. Hinrich would have been the perfect guy to harass Chauncey Billups and Jason Kidd, to bring the ball up, and to drain all the open threes Kobe creates for him. The good news for The Lakers is that they have a guy who can do all these things fairly well in Shannon Brown. Brown stepped up his game nicely when Bryant was injured and gives the Lakers a sharp shooting athlete to play next to Bryant instead of the washed up Derek Fisher who looks like he should be playing in an over 40 league at the local "Y".

Giddyap. Y'all be cool.

With the All-Star break behind us, some things I see surprise me....others not so much.


I am surprised that the Denver Nuggets have played as well as they have without Carmelo Anthony. I figured they would struggle to score, but the pu-pu platter of Chauncey Billups, Kenyon Martin, and J.R. Smith has picked up the slack. I'm particularly surprised with Billups. Everytime I start shoveling dirt on him, he resurrects himself and proves me wrong. I know I've said it before, but as long as Billups doesn't channel his inner Iverson at playoff time, the Nuggets will challenge the Lakers to win the West.

I'm surprised that Shaquille O'Neal has played as well as he has for the last month. I will stop short of saying that he looks like the Shaq of old. The Shaq of old couldn't share slacks with Andre the Giant, like this version of Shaq can. But Shaq is doing a lot more for the Cavs than I ever thought he would.

I'm very surprised that the Sacramento Kings have played so poorly with Kevin Martin back from injury. The problem is obvious and clear. Moving rookie phenom Tyreke Evans from a wing to point guard is a tactical error. Evans can be a star in this league at a wing. Just because he can play the point capably does not mean its best for him or for the team to have him there. Head coach Paul Westphal will get this solved. The Kings have a very bright future ahead of them.

I'm not surprised that the Bulls have righted the ship. The trade deadline will be a very interesting time for them. If they want to add two big players in free agency in the offseason, they need to rid themselves of Kirk Hinrich and John Salmons. There should be a market for both players. However, with the way they've turned things around, do they want to remove two important rotation players for a return that probably will not be equal present basketball value. If they were guaranteed to bring in Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Joe Johnson, its a no brainer. But the cap space doesn't mean all that much if you can't get star players to sign on.

Speaking of cap space not meaning all that much if you can't get people to sign on, I am thouroughly surprised that Knick GM Donnie Walsh has reportedly refused to throw Jordan Hill or Toney Douglas into a deal that would shed Jared Jeffries contract. The only player on his roster he should be reluctant to deal is Danilo Gallinari. Hill was a mistake and Donnie turns the pick into a productive one by using the player to create more cap space. However, Donnie should come up short of trading those first rounders the Rockets keep liberally asking for. If he does part with even one, he becomes Isiah Thomas with grey hair and a nicotine habit.

I am not surprised that the Wizards are tanking their season. GM Ernie Grunfeld made a monumental mistake by trading last year's first round pick for Mike Miller and Randy Foye. Ernie has been a very good GM over the years, but this butcher job he's done on the Wizards should be the end of the road for him. And although having players turn the locker room into the OK corral is not exactly Ernie's fault, at one point or another he needs to be held responsible for the character of the players he has brought in.

I am also not surprised that the Mavericks traded Josh Howard to Washington. Howard brought some negative attention onto the Mavericks last offseason with some careless remarks about his intimate relationship with marijuana. And then when he returned from injury, he did not fit in basketball wise with their revamped roster. Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood will do wonders for the Mavs. They will allow the Mavs to match up with anyone if they play big or small.

I will be very surprised if someone besides Jeff Van Gundy or Rick Pitino coaches the Nets next year. Despite the mocking of Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski, the Nets job is actually a very attractive job. The Nets will most likely be playing in a 2 year old building in Newark next year and will do much better attendance wise just based on location. There is a move to Brooklyn on the horizon in a yet to be built state of the art facility. They have a brand new Russian billionaire owner who has a reputation for being ultra competitive and being willing to spend money. The Nets are guaranteed a top 3 pick in next year's draft with a 25% chance to win the John Wall sweepstakes. They have a legitimate building block in 7 foot center Brook Lopez. And they have a boatload of cap space. For Van Gundy, it will be an opportunity to get back on the sidelines in the New York metropolitan area with a generous owner. Frankly, there's no where to go but up. For Pitino, the appeal is similar but with an added bonus. Pitino gets to leave Louisville and the sloppy scandal he created for his family. Furthermore, Little Ricky gets out of dodge before it becomes thouroughly apparent that Kentucky coach John Calipari is beating his backside recruiting wise. Pitino's denials sound alarmingly like Nick Saban's did when he was with the Miami Dolphins as he vehemently denied interest in the Alabama job.

I am very surprised that the Cavaliers are pursuing Amare Stoudemire so aggressively. Last time I checked, Shaq was their starting center and lets face it, the Shaq-Stoudemire pairing was an abject failure for Phoenix last year. As readers of thiis space know all too well, I am a big fan of Stoudemire's game. But the Cavs would be quite smart not to put the two of these guys together. Matter of fact, it would not surprise me if Stoudemire is brought in, Shaq and his monstrous.....expiring contract are moved out of Cleveland. (to Indiana with a first rounder for Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster) What did you think... I as going to make another fat joke about Shaq??

I will be very surprised if Celtic general manager Danny Ainge doesn't do something. The window is closing fast for Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. The Celtics are tied to Pierce and Garnett for big money for the next two years. They are a team in desperate need for some young blood. Ray Allen has a lot of value because of his expriring contract. There have been a lot of rumors about Allen going to Sacramento for a Kevin Martin package, but I'm not sure if that is worth it for Boston. What could be interesting is if the Celtics and Philadelphia could get together on a Allen-Andre Igoudala trade. A deal like Igoudala and Samule Dalembert for Allen, Kendrick Perkins and a first rounder would work under the cap and satisfy everyone. Not sure if the Celtics would part with Perkins, but its truly the kind of shakeup they need.


I will be surprised if Kirk Hinrich isn't pursued by the Lakers come Thursday's trade deadline. As rich as his contract is for what he does, he's a unique player and L.A. is a contender who cannot resist. Something tells me he's going to be wearing Laker purple. As expensive as it is, it fills the Lakers last remaining whole. Two expiring contracts like Adam Morrison and the washed up Derek Fisher would work under the cap mand would offer the Bulls the salary relief they desire. The toughest obstacle will be Philosophical Phil parting with his karmic security blanket.

Be back next week to sort out deadline results. Giddyap. Y'all be cool.

Late Night Wars


There's lots of coverage out there over who is hosting who's late night talk show. Frankly, I could care less about Jay Leno or Conan O'Brien. (did his parents really name him, Conan??). I've always been a Letterman guy myself. So, a few times a year, I swipe my man Dave's copyright on the Top Ten list, and I bust out a few myself, NBA style.

Top Ten Observations about the Eastern Conference

10) The most unlikely productive marriage I've seen in the league all year is Stephen Jackson and Larry Brown in Charlotte. Jackson has become the straw that stirs the drink for Larry's overachieving team. Since Jackson got to Charlotte, he's been defending hard and playing Larry's way. I've got to give Larry credit. He's found a way over the years for getting very productive leadership out of certified mental pateints like Allen Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, and now Jackson. Tells you everything you need to know about Stephon Marbury.

9)If the Toronto Raptors can get Andrew Bynum for Chris Bosh beyween now and the trade deadline, they should not think twice. Even if Bosh promises the Raptors that he intends to stay, they should still move him. Bosh may be afforded a unique, once ion a career opportunity to join Dwyane Wade or LeBron James and compete for a title every year' Expecting that not to be seductive for a 25 year old emerging star is extremely naive on the Raptors' part. If given a choice between playing deep into the playoffs every spring with a league MVP or freezing your buppy off in a hockey town with Handsome Hedo Turkoglu, what would you do? If the Raptors can find someone to take Handsome Hedo off their books, Bynum and Bargnani are promising young bigs to build around. If the Raptors do decide to trade Bosh, it wouldn't surprise me to see Handsome Hedo go to Cleveland (Hedo and Amir Johnson's expiring contract for Hickson and Ilgauskas' expiring contract)...just saying....

8) Despite Orlando's struggles lately, I still like what I see. Head coach Stan Van Gundy has a plan and the Magic to me are still my favorite to win the Eastern Conference. The issues Stan has had with Vince Carter have a very promising light at the end of the tunnel. When the playoffs begin, Stan will have Vince playing it the Van Gundy way. When Carter wants to, he can be a productive team player. The challenge has always been shot selection with Vince. And Van Gundy is well aware of this. The other move Van Gundy has made which I like is inserting forward Matt Barnes into the starting lineup. This move Mikael Pietrus back to the bench, where Pietrus is more effective. And since Barnes is a better rebounder, it gives center Dwight Howard help on the glass that Howard doesn't get from stretch power forward Rashard Lewis.

7) David Lee is having a very productive year for the New York Knicks. But unfortunately for the Knicks, all that is really going to help is David Lee. The Knicks had brought Lee back on a one year deal for this season. They will have a decision to make after this year on Lee and after the year Lee is having, he won't be cheap. But the larger issue is that if the Knicks are committed to 21 year old second year player Danilo Gallinari, there's no place for Lee on the court. Knick coach Mike D'Antoni is trying to get away with playing Lee and Gallinari together this season, and surprise, surprise.... he's not getting away with it. The Knicks are an awful defensive team around the rim. Both Lee and Gallinari are power forwards, and neither of them masquerades very well as a center. Watching teams with decent size just have their way with the Knicks inside. Bosh and Bargnani, Garnett and Perkins, Lopez and Yi, it doesn't matter. With these two guys playing together, the paint is like a subway turnstile. The one that will go will be Lee. Managment considers Gallinari a cornerstone. And just to be recklessly speculative, Lee might fit in quite well as Amare Stoudemire's replacement in Phoenix.

6) The Atlanta Hawks are clearly good enough to compete for the Eastern Conference title. Al Horford and Josh Smith are as imposing a front line as there is. As I've written many times, Joe Johnson is the most unrecognized star in the league. And as much as it pains me to admit, they've gotten excellent guard play from Mike Bibby and chucker extraordinaire Jamal Crawford. They are the Celtcis worst nightmare. And as sacreligious as this sounds, this might just be the year the Celtics significantly lose the Kevin Garnett-Josh Smith matchup. KG is clearly on the back nine of his career and Smith is just learning everything he''s capable of on the basketball court.

5) The Chicago Bulls are not dead yet. As much as I really have not been overly enthralled with Derrick Rose's 2nd year in the league, he is starting to carry this team offensively. I truly believe that Rose ultimately will max out his pro potential by being more of a distributing type of pure point guard. But as long as Bull coach Vinny Del Negro chooses to play Kirk Hinrich next to Rose in the backcourt, Rose can get away with a little more shooting because Hinrich is also a willing distributor. Furthermore, Bull center Joakim Noah is developing into an extremely effective big man. And it is not lost on this writer that the two of the three best centers in the Eastern Conference won two national championships together playing for the University of Florida. Al Horford and Noah are a new, young athletic brand of center who can thrive in an up tempo system and in the half court.

4) Do you think the Celtics made a mistake with this Rasheed Wallace signing? Is the pope Catholic? Not only is Wallace perpetually firing three pointers, while hitting very few of them, his volatile nature runs the risk of poisoning the Celtics team chemistry. And if thats not enough, Rasheed hasn't been saying no to too many buffets lately. Either he's been taking nutrition tips from Shaq, or he's just become the guy that ate Rasheed Wallace. Either way, without a healthy Garnett, Wallace is not a suitable replacement. And while I'm on the topic, I wonder aloud why the Celtics don't shut Garnett down for the next 20 games. They most likely will not fall below a 4 seed in the East. And regardless of home court, they'll still have to beat two of Cleveland, Orlando, and Atlanta to get to the Finals. A healthy Garnett is of much more value to Boston than an extra playoff home game.

3) One of the better coaching jobs being done in the league this year is Scott Skiles in Milwaukee. In spite of the presence of exciting rookie point guard Brandon Jennings is not blessed with a ton of talent. Nis best offensive player, Michael Redd, is out for the season. He has a good, hard working center in Andrew Bogut. He's got Jennings, who is still very much a work in progress, and he's got a second good young point guard in Luke Ridnour. Ridnour has made significant progress from last year to this year. His defense has improved. He's a better shooter, and a better decision maker. Skiles has been giving teams matchup fits by playing Jennings and Ridnour together at crunch time. Beyond these guys, Skiles has a bunch of spare parts. He's finding a way to get these to compete night in and night out. If they keep Skiles around in Milwaulee for the long haul, he will be a big part of a turnaround. He's enacted a culture change and it would behoove the Bucks to allow him to finish what he started.

2) The Cleveland Cavaliers still strike me as a team that is built more for a successful regular season and less designed to win in a long playoff series. There is no disputing that the league's most dominanat player leads the Cavaliers. LeBron James is as effective a player in every facet of the game that we may ever see in our lifetime. But one player does not a team make. Besides LeBron, the Cavs level of athleticism is putrid. That is why Jamario Moon looms as such an important player for Cleveland. He gives them athleticism they don't get anywhere else. Anderson Varejao has some athleticism for a 6'10" player, but in the East they need more. The Hawks roll big time athletes at you like Al Horford, Josh Smith, and Joe Johnson. The Magic show you Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Vince Carter. Even the Celtics challenge a little athletically with Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo. On Cleveland, its LeBron, the Fat Man, and a couple fo shooters. If the Cavs can add Antawn Jamison or Andre Igoudala, it becomes a different story. Even handsome Hedo Turkoglu would help. But as is, the Cavs don't have enough. And of they don't get there this year, the next sound they may hear is the door hitting Lebron in his ample backside on his way out.

1) And my number one observation about the Eastern Conference is that the Nets will win at least 10 games and not set the futility record for mosses in a season set by the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers. As bad a coach as Kiki Vandeweghe is and as much of a dog that Devin Harris has become, there are enough competitive guys in that locker room that they will not quit. And as the season winds down, there will be plenty of team the Nets play that will have quit. As crazy as it sounds, the Nets have something to play for.

Without further adieu....my Top Ten Observations about the Western Conference


10) The most exciting story in the West this season is clearly the Memphis Grizzlies. Since starting the season 1-8, the Grizzlies have won 24 of 36 and are currently seeded 7th in the Western Conference. They have a wealth of very talented offensive players in Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, O.J. Mayo, and Marc Gasol. But what has characterized their emergence as a legitimate playoff contender is their selflessness and work ethic. Gasol lost a ton of weight in the offseason and does all the little things you like your center to do. He's big, physical and highly skilled. Randolph has been a well behaved version of himself. Randolph scores and rebounds like a madman. And he'll lay his body put defensively. What Z-Bo doesn't like to do is share the rock with anyone else. But because Gay and Mayo have checked their egos at the door and have been more than willing to give up the ball, the team has flourished with Randolph as the offensive centerpiece. The great thing for the Grizzlies is that they have not asked much of their bench which consists of Sam Young, Hasheeem Thabeet, and Jamaal Tinsley. And make no mistake. when called upon, the Grizzlies' bench is more than capable. And a big shout out to Memphis head coach Lionel Hollins who has gotten this group to buy in.

9) The Rockets would have been better off keeping Ron Artest than bringing in Trevor Ariza. Granted Ariza is younger, but the reality is that Ariza is much more efficient as a role player than as a facilitator. And if you're going to play off guard next to a point guard like Aaron Brooks, you need to fucntion more as a distributor than a shooter. Frankly, Ariza plays as if he doesn't know what he is. He seems to pass up good shots and hoist bad ones. He also tends to dominate the ball and dribble too much. In the meantime, Artest has upgraded the Lakers team defense in a big way. And although Ron is not asked to do as much offensively for the Lakers, he takes the toughest wing matchup night in and night out allowing Kobe Bryant to have easier defensive matchups, giving Kobe more energy to focus on the offensive end. That is a factor that is not minor for the Lakers, which begs my next question.....

8) Which individual within the Lakers organization is making the decision to allow Kobe Bryant to continue to play every night with a broken finger and a bad back? It is extremely admirable of Bryant to want to gut his way through games with his injuries. But the reality is that Kobe is laboring out there. And as much as the Lakers would like to secure the first seed in the West, much like the Celtics with Kevin Garnett, it is much more imperative that the Lakers have Bryant healthy than having home court advantage. Frankly, the Lakers have more than enough talent to stay very competitive in the West without Bryant for 5-10 games. But without Bryant in the playoffs, the Lakers are burnt to a crisp. And if they need to find a little extra rest for Artest's plantar fasciatis or Pau Gasol's groin, it needs to happen. The priority for the Lakers must be the health of their best four players. (Bryant, Gasol, Artest, and Odom.) Just ask Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, who kept Tim Duncan in street clothes on the second night of a back to back two weeks ago for the sole purpose of resting him. Its good policy to understand that healthy stars win road games in the playoffs and teams with injured stars struggle to win home games. If Kobe Bryant doesn't want to sit, someone within the Lakers organization needs to tell him to. The most logical candidate is Laker coach Big Chief Triangle.

7) Speaking of the Spurs, this Richard Jefferson thing doesn't appear to be working out too well. Jefferson has spent much of the first half of the season in and out of Popovich's dog house. He looks legitimately uncomfortable sharing the ball and not consistently taking bad shots. His defensive intensity tends to fade in and out. Thank god for the Spurs that George Hill has developed as nicely as he has. Hill gives them a more than capable backup to Tony Parker and doubles as a very athletic wing player giving the Spurs some much needed athleticism. The Spurs will need every bit of Hill's athleticism and Jefferson playing at his best if they have any chance to come out of the West...and that's assuming they stay healthy.

6) Speaking of staying healthy, in watching Dirk Nowitzki play lately it appears the big fella's elbow isn't totally healed. I watched him fall on it earlier this week in Phoenix and he protected that thing like a chicken favoring a wounded wing. The Mavericks are in the same boat as the Lakers with Kobe and the Celtics with Garnett. Dirk not healthy equals zero chance at a title. As it stands, they will have to go through two of L.A., San Antonio and Denver. A high seed would be nice, but Dirk at 100% is much better. And while I'm on the Mavs, I think they made a crucial error in resigning Jason Kidd for three years. He has become a defensive liability and does not push tempo as effectively as he used to. Dallas is a better team with J.J. Barea on the court. Barea plays stifling man to man defense and creates more than this ancient version of Kidd. I do believe that Dallas coach Rick Carlisle is aware of this fact. How deftly he manages Kidd's fragile ego with this will be something that bears watching for the Mavericks.

5) I'm very impressed with how far Kevin Durant's game has come. I did not expect him to be as effective defensively this early in his career. Imagine how good Oklahoma City would be if they selected Tyreke Evans in this past draft instead of James Harden? And while we're on the what ifs, Evans probably would have had the same effect on Memphis, who selected backup center Hasheem Thabeet, but I digress... I watched an Oklahoma City game earlier this week and regardless of how impressed I am with Durant's game, I do have an ongoing issue with him. He is painful to watch in high definition. He's got a face like a cobble stone driveway. Can someone recommend this guy a dermatologist. In high definition, he makes Handsome Hedo look like George Clooney. I don't mean to be unkind. He's a great young player, but the only endorements he's getting with that complexion is to hawk motor oil.

4) For as much heat that Minnesota GM David Kahn for drafting two point guards in succession in the first round of last year's draft, it was the right move then and remains the right move now in spite of the dismal season the Timberwolves are having. Ricky Rubio is still in Spain improving by leaps and bounds on somebody else's dime. When Rubio decides to come stateside, the product Kahn will be getting will be much more refined. And in the meantime, Kahn is learning that his other point guard, Jonny Flynn, may not have what it takes to be a big time point guard in the league. He's prone to turnovers, takes lots of bad shots and is having typical rookie defensive struggles. The Timberwolves are having a miserable year, but because of Kahn's boldness in last year's draft they are still prepared to make a big time turnaround in the next few years.

3) The Los Angeles Clippers are not cursed. They're just stupid. Stupidity had nothing to do with number one overall pick Blake Griffin going out for the year before ever playing a game. But if management thinks thats the only reason they stink this year, they are in denial. Building the franchise around Baron Davis is a tactical mistake. Davis routinely mails in games and has for years. When the going gets tough, Davis is nowhere to be found. He had 2/3rds of a productive year playing Nellie ball for Golden State where he wasn't required to defend, which was a good thing, because defense is not something that crosses his mind all that much. The Clippers should also be trading Marcus Camby for draft picks and young talent. The cap space that Camby's contract will create in the offseason will not matter because the Clippers have very little chance to attract a free agent. They should be building around Griffin and Eric Gordon and understand they should be gearing up to be competitive in 2 years. Instead they delude themselves into beleiving they can win now and permananetly reside with the Knicks and Pacers in NBA no man's land.

2) The Denver Nuggets just completed a string of games that should scare the living daylights out of everyone in the West. They just played four games in a row without MVP candidate Carmelo Anthony. They went 3-1 with road wins at Houston and at San Antonio. In early January they lost Anthony for 5 games and went 3-2. With Anthony out, they are forced to rely more on other players. And these other players are stepping up big time. Nene has been terrific. Kenyon Martin has stepped up. And Arron Afflalo and J.R. Smith have picked up a nice piece of the scoring load. This will be a great benefit to Denver come playoff time. Having your best player miss some regular season time can be a great benefit for a title contender. This is why I think the Lakers, Celtics and Mavericks are being foolish with Kobe, Garnett, and Dirk and why i think the Spurs have been smart with Duncan. The Nuggets are the team that the Lakers ought to be checking out like Mickey scoped out Clubber Lang in Rocky 3. The Lakers could be in for the fight of their life.

And my number one observation about the Western Conference is......

1) The problem with the Phoenix Suns lately has not ben Amare Stoudemire. Its Steve Nash. I know, it sounds like heresy. But Nash's skills are eroding in front of our eyes. He's always been a very poor defensive player. However, for the first time this season he's having increased difficulty getting off his own shot. This has lead to some bad shot selection and more turnovers. Rumor has it that the Suns are shopping Stoudemire. Stoudemire has been a round peg in a square hole for the Suns for years. He could thrive much more in a slower half court system. reportedly, the Suns have no desire to re-sign Stoudemire in the offseason, so they're trying to move him now. They would be better off signing Stoudemire to a max deal and seeing what kind of a market there is for Nash before its too late. There is definitely still a market for Nash, even with his extension kicking in next year. As sacreligious as it sounds, the Suns can get younger much quicker bringing back young players for Nash and handing the reins to 22 year old backup point guard Goran Dragic, who shows a lot of promise. Thats no a sentimental or popular thought. But in my estimation, its the right one.

Giddyap, y'all be cool.

New Logo, New URL, New Year, New Post......


Is there anything more fun in this world than being right?? Its clearly to me one of life's great pleasures. Since its been a good six weeks since I've written, I'd like to give my readers pleasure as I pleasure myself at the same time...(hey now). I'm going to use this column to follow up on my early season predictions I made in this very space. I promise that I will break my own arm patting myself on the back for some things. And for others, i will remind you all what a bufoon I truly can be. Nonetheless, prediction follow up is something we rarely see in the mainstream media. So, here goes......

I'm going to start with an easy one. I was correct in predicting what an absolute mess the Washington Wizards have become. And this was before Gilbert Arenas decided to play Billy the Kid in the Verizon Center locker room. . Two Wizard related questions to ponder.... Does Wiz GM Ernie Grunfeld wake up in a cold sweat dreaming of Ricky Rubio running the fast break for Minnesota?....And is there a bigger bad ass in sports than David Stern? The Don Corleone of commissioners placed a proverbial bloody horse head right in Arenas' bed. Don't mess with the Don.

And while I'm congratulating myself, I was also correct on the Miami Heat. Ultimately, its a one player team. Michael Beasley is developing some, but its essentially team Wade. And no team has a bigger upside and downside in this coming offseason free agent sweepstakes. If Wade stays, it will be because someone decided to join him (LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemre etc..) or Wade leaves and they get nothing. Pat Riley is another league executive who has a legitimate reason for grave concern.

As embarrassing as it is, I totally missed on my New York Knicks. I thought they would be downright atrocious and they've managed to ascend to barely mediocre. The good news is that they actually have 3 players who have a chance to be part of their future. David Lee has improved considerably and has seemed to rediscover his work ethic. Wilson Chandler has learned the defensive end of the floor and he is truly athletic enough to be a difference maker defensively. And Danilo Gallinari has shown signs of being an electric offense player at a young age. And while I'm on the subject, I think Knick coach Mike D'Antoni isn't using Gallo correctly. Having him play a wing and primarily shoot threes is a waste and will not develop Gallo's inside skills enough. Gallo is a high post player who can step out for threes. He is big, strong, and a fantastic scorer. He can be a star as a high post player. If used properly, he could be a dominant offensive player in the mold of Dirk Nowitzki. To be fair to D'Antoni, I'd like to commend him on his handling of future Harlem Globetrotter Nate Robinson. He has sufficiently humbled this sideshow act to the point where Robinson conducts himself on the court like a professional ballplayer. Unfortunately, the next guy Nate defends will be his first, but I digress.

I was really really really wrong about the woeful New Jersey Nets. Very frankly, the most disappointing player in the entire league has been Net guard Devin Harris. His game has seemed to lack fire. He's not the greatest team player and has seemed to lose any shred of killer instinct that he's had. And as good as Brook Lopez is developing, he has been remarkably slow in learning what to do out of double teams. In all fairness, the Nets have the sorriest assembly of perimeter shooters I've seen in this league in along time. And as much as I respect Net president Rod Thorn as a team executive, he exercised the most futile gesture in the league this season in firing Lawrence Frank.

My prediction that the Cavalier-Shaq marriage would be an abject failure is on its way to fruition. All you need to know about that is that neither the Cavs best small unit and the Cavs best unit do not have Shaq in it. And besides LeBron, the most important Cav players to stay healthy are Anderson Varejao and Jamario Moon. I never thought I'd write that last sentence. And if they can manage to add Antawn Jamison from the Wizards' pending fire sale, they might just have a chance to compete for the Eastern Conference title.

I completely blew it on the Bulls. They have taken three giant steps backwards since their classic first round series last season versus the Kevin Garnett-less Celtics. The only reason head coach Vinny Del Negro has not lost his job yet is because they haven't found anyone to take it and team president John Paxson doesn't want to do it himself. Del Negro's biggest failure has been his inability to get through to 2nd year point guard Derrick Rose. Rose has taken a big step backwards this year. He has become a high volume shooter and a reluctant passer and defender. Del Negro has not gotten him to understand that he didn't have to try and be Ben Gordon to replace Ben Gordon.

And while I'm talking about Ben Gordon, I was absolutely correct on the miserable Detroit Pistons. Piston GM Joe Dumars assembled a roster only Isiah Thomas could be proud of then hired a lifetime assistant in John Kuester who would have trouble managing a 7-11. What Dumars has is one of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference loaded with untradable long term contracts, most of them being guys who play the same position. This may end up being the end of the road for Dumars in Detroit. This disaster may exhaust the rest of the goodwill capital Dumars built with the 2003-04 championship.

My prediction for the Indiana Pacers this season was a total miss. They are currently 12-25 and going nowhere. I thought they had an interesting, versatile roster. But Danny Granger went from being an up and coming star into a high volume shooter who is disinterested in defense. T.J. Ford is not a starting NBA guard. And head coach Jim O'Brien tends to coach this team like he has no clue what he's going to get from certain guys on a nightly basis, which is the case. Mike Dunleavy has been slow to return to form after a knee injury. Troy Murphy has been inconsistent. Rookie Tyler Hansbrough has been the Pacers' most consistent player. Indiana needs to be sellers at the trade deadline. Its time for Pacer president Larry Bird to gut the whole operation.

I completely whiffed on the Atlanta Hawks. I figured the Hawks might fall victim to some of their moderate playoff success over the last two seasons. Combine that with the pending free agency of their best player Joe Johnson and the presence of all-world chucker Jamal Crawford, and I thought things would get tough. Instead, they have played like a top tier team. Center Al Horford has developed into a very unselfish, physical big man. Josh Smith is one of the most athletic big forwards in the league. Crwaford has actually been a very productive scoring guard off the bench. And Johnson is turning in another routine stellar season. Head coach Mike Woodson does one of the most underrated jobs in the league with this team. They are officially the Cetics worst nightmare come playoff time.

I'll close it out with a giant pat on the back for my correct call on the success of the Phoenix Suns. One can never underrate how much a team can be helped merely by the removal of a 400 lb washed up Hall of Fame championship center who is the only one that doesn't realize that he's just not an asset on the court anymore. Without Shaq, the Suns have rediscovered their identity as an up tempo team. They probably won't make a deep playoff run because there are at least 4 better half court teams in the West, and the playoffs are more of a half court game. However, this success could increase their chances of keeping Amare Stoudemire in the offseason with free agency around the corner. Lots of credit here should also go to head coach Alvin Gentry, who has his guys playing a system perfectly tailored to their roster.


Back next week with more predictions for the second half of the season. Giddyap. Y'all be cool.

Random Thoughts








These are things I pondered as I sat down to eat some Thanksgiving crow about my prediciton that the Nets would be better than people think.........








While I'm on the Nets, my sources tell me that LeBron James is just as likely to go to the Nets as the Knicks at this point. Contrary to popular belief, living in New York is much more important to LeBron than playing at Madison Square Garden. LeBron is keenly aware he can live in Manhattan and conveniently play for the Nets in Newark or Brooklyn. And yes, before you laugh at me, I really do have sources!!



Also, a quick post script on the Lawrence Frank firing. Lawrence was as hard working a coach as there was in the league. He earned his players' respect with tireless dedication. I have been critical of Frank in the past for not emphasizing shot selection enough. His teams always seemed to take a high volume of contested perimeter shots. Nonetheless, he was in a no win situation this season and handled his departure with grace and class. He is definitely a guy who deserves another chance without a stripped down bargain basement roster accompanied by an injury epidemic. Frank is one of the good guys.





Its very strange to me that as much as Greg Oden has improved from last year to this year, there are nights that Portland looks like they're regressing. And as good as Oden has looked he got shredded last week in consecutive games by Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol.





The Miami Heat have very little bench. Its starting to become a problem and the calendar's just turning to December. Their lack of depth will not exactly be a selling point when it comes time to re-sign Dwayne Wade.



The next head coach to get the axe will most likely be Jay Triano of Toronto. Its one thing to lack skilled perimeter defenders. Its another thing to hold no player accountable for what they do at the defensive end of the floor. With Chris Bosh in the last year of his contract, it is too important a season to let it slip out of control over effort issues. I would think that Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo sees the urgency and will act accordingly.



As good as the Atlanta Hawks have played, I guarantee you that Jamal Crawford will shoot them out of a very important game before alls said and done.



Read the above line again and insert the Denver Nuggets and J.R. Smith where the Hawks and Crawford are.



How do teams with NO guards like the Knicks and the Heat (besides Dwyane Wade) allow Jamaal Tinsley to end up signing with the Memphis Grizzlies. Tinsley has been a much better fit with the Grizzlies than Allen Iverson was ever going to be. He has made their whole starting lineup a better team. In the meantime the Heat keep rolling a slow Mario Chalmers out next to Wade every night and the Knicks keep giving Chris Duhon 30 minutes a night.



Speaking of Duhon, who do you think he has naked pictures of , D'Antoni, Dolan, or Donnie? My guess is Dolan.......



As good as the Phoenix Suns have been early on, they have gotten exposed this week as a team who plays weak interior defense. They should be a player in the trade market at deadline time looking for a big man who defends.



The Washington Wizards have started to play better with the return of Antawn Jamison. In the end, the best this group can do is a first round playoff loss. I know I belabor this point, but the two players he traded the #5 pick for last year, Randy Foye and Mike Miller, are making very little contribtuion to any success the Wizards are having. They could have been competing just the same and had Ricky Rubio stashed in Spain to begin loading up for their future. Unfortunately for Ernie Grunfeld, this might be his legacy in Washington.



Is Thabo Sefolosha the Swiss translation of Shane Battier?



Speaking of the Oklahoma City Thunder, it looks like they're starting to come around a little. Kevin Durant has been very good and Thunder coach Scott Brooks hides him well on defense. But the most important thing for the Thunder is the continued development of point guard Russell Westbrook. When Westbrook keeps his turnovers and missed shots low, ands his assists high, it directly translates into success for the Thunder.



T.J. Ford is the worst starting point guard in the league not named Chris Duhon. But at least you can forgive the Pacers for not pusuing Tinsley. He was a key reason that Pacer president larry Bird kept a bail bondsman on speed dial.



I hate to say it, but the San Antonio Spurs are getting old before our eyes. At this stage, there is no way I could see them competing athletically in a playoff series with the Lakers or the Nuggets.

Doc Rivers is doing a very nice job of rationing his veteran starters' minutes, especially Kevin Garnett. If the Celtics do not enter the playoffs healthy, they will not have much of a chance to get back to the finals.

Cleveland Cavalier coach Mike Brown is not exactly making friends and influencing people when it comes to his own players. His choice of giving Zydrunas Ilgauskas a Did Not Play-Coaches Decision for the first time in Ilgauskas' career on the night Ilgauskas was to break the Cavliers games played record was foolish and needless. Furthermore, the Cavs are a much better team with Anderson Varejao and Ilgauskas on the court as oppossed to J.J. Hickson and Shaquille O'Neal. Brown needs to be careful about genuflecting to Shaq too much. Shaq has torn down much better coaches than him. Just ask Stan Van Gundy and Mike D'Antoni.......

Before anyone gets too excited over the better than usual start for the Charlotte Bobcats, remember that the Bobcats have not traveled West yet and they're not exactly world beaters on the road. Stephen Jackson helps, but he's really just a band aid on a bullet wound.

So much for last year's draft being a weak one. It actually is spawning a point guard revolution. Brandon Jennings is leading the Bucks to respectability. Ty Lawson is a key bench player on a championship contender in Denver. Darren Collison led New Orleans to a 5-4 record in Chris Paul's absence. And a few of the point guards who started slow are starting to look better. Jonny Flynn has been struggling to learn the triangle offense for Minnesota and has started to improve as they've ran more pick and roll. Eric Maynor is ably backing up Deron Williams for Utah. Jrue Holiday has started a few games for the Sixers and been effective, although he's going back to the bench next week when Allen Iverson arrives. And thats not even including future star Sacramento's Tyreke Evans, who is really a two guard, but dabbles at some point. The only one of this group that is really struggling is Stephen Curry. He's having tremendous difficulty on the defensive end.

Back next week with players I can't wait to watch and the players I'm sick of. Giddyap. Y'all be cool.

An Open letter to New York Knicks president and general manager Donnie Walsh

















Dear Donnie,





Considering that you're a Bronx native and have lived your life working in the business of professional basketball, I would never insult you by explaining to you the type of fan base that you've inherited when you undertook the enormous task of rebuliding the organization that Isiah Thomas ripped apart as if it were the low cut top of an office intern. However, from what appears to be happening, it may be time for you to be reminded our need and desire for basketball relevance. We're too loyal a group to accept anything else.





We don't possess the entitlements of New York Yankee or Boston Celtic fans when it comes to championships. We understand that those are few and far between. But our loyalty, appreciation of history, and understanding of the nuances of the game commands basketball relevance. And the product that you put on the floor each night is the polar opposite. As fans, we have been graced with an anti-competitve team of mercenaries who play as if they are waiting for a savior to arrive from the heavens. He actually did arrive two Fridays ago, but the problem was that he was wearing a Cleveland Cavaliers uniform.







I am a 40 year old Knick fan, so I am obviously too young to recall the championship teams of 1970 and 1973. My first recollection of rooting for the Knicks is the 1975-76 team with a young Bob McAdoo in his prime and the last season of the great Walt "Clyde" Frazier. Even at the tender age of 7, my father taught me enough to know that if we had Clyde and Earl the Pearl Monroe, we were relevant, no matter how old they were. The following year, in Willis Reed's first year as head coach, the Knicks advanced to the second round of the playoffs after a 43-39 season. It wasn't greatness, but the Knicks mattered.







In the next few years, the Knicks drafted well, and I got the pleasure of rooting for good young players like Bill Cartwright and Micheal Ray Richardson, who together led the Knicks to a 50 win season after Hall of Fame coach Red Holzman had returned to the sidelines. Unfortunately, we got knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, but as fans, we had hope and confidence about the future. Unfortunately, the following year, we took a step back and had a 33 win season and missed the playoffs. That also ended up being Holzman's last season as head coach.







Now, Donnie, I want you to observe what happened after this. Management was bold and aggressive. The Knicks traded Richardson to the Golden State Warriors for future Knicks legend Bernard King. The Knicks also hired Hubie Brown as head coach. Led by Brown, King, and Cartwright, the Knicks won 44 games and advanced to the second round of the playoffs only to get swept by eventual NBA champion, the Julius Erving led Philadelphia 76ers. But the statement was made. As long as the Knicks had King and Hubie Brown, we would be a force to be reckoned with and Madison Square Garden would once again be a tough place for opponents to play.







The following season was memorable for a variety of reasons. The Knicks won 47 games in 1983-1984 and were also knocked out in the second round of the playoffs. But this was the year that the Knicks beat the Detroit Pistons in a 5 game epic series in the first round of the playoffs. This series was memorable for all Knicks fans because of the classic duel that developed between King and Pistons guard Isiah Thomas. The same Isiah Thomas that exhibited disgusting gall in announcing to Knick fans in his first season as general manager, "Welcome to the Playoffs." Well Donnie, I guess Isiah exhibited his selective memory in forgetting that we beat him that year in the playoffs, so no need to welcome us. Now that I think about it, maybe his methodical dismantling of every aspect of our organization was an elaborate revenge plot, but I digress. The Knicks would lose a 7 game second round series that season to the eventual World Champion Boston Celtics. Again, we may not have been the best team in the NBA, but we were relevant.





The following season was characterized by a stroke of bad luck followed by a stroke of great luck. Bernard King's devastating knee injury defined this 24 win season. And a lucky ping pong ball defined the offseason. The Knicks weren't having such a great season when King went down, so the 24 win total at season's end was somewhat predictable. What we didn't predict Donnie is Commissioner David Stern picking our ping pong ball out of the lottery bucket giving us the right to select Patrick Ewing with the first pick in the draft.





Now I know Donnie that I do not need to recount to you many details of the Patrick Ewing era with the Knicks considering you became the Indiana Pacers general manager in 1986. You lived it in a unique way. You successfully built a team to compete with Ewing's Knicks. As an executive, you understood that the right decisions weren't always the easy ones. Your second year as Pacer GM, you risked getting lynched by an angry mob by selecting Reggie Miller in the first round in 1987, opting to leave Indiana hometown hero Steve Alford on the board. And we all know how well that worked out. However, Donnie, I do feel the need to enlighten you some on what us Knick fans FEEL about Patrick Ewing, because this helps underscore our insatiable desire for basketball relevance.





Patrick Ewing was suppossed to be the Knicks savior. He was the avenue that would return us to the championship glory years of the early seventies. Unfortunately, he was never properly surrounded with enough talent to get us over the hump until it was too late in his career. Whether it was Dave DeBusschere, Al Bianchi, or Ernie Grunfeld, none of our GMs could get the formula exactly right around Patrick Ewing. They all delivered us big time coaches. Ewing was coached by Hubie Brown, Rick Pitino, Pat Riley, and Jeff Van Gundy. (The Don Nelson era NEVER happened, I swear..), but it was never enough. By the time Grunfeld surrounded Ewing with an athletic, skilled group, it was too late. If Patrick played with Latrell Sprewell, Allen Houston, Larry Johnson, and Marcus Camby when he was in his prime, odds are we would have won a title. And we wrongly blamed Patrick for that.





You see Donnie, Patrick gave us every thing he had. When his athleticism started to fail him a little, he re-made his game. He gave us over a decade of excitement and was a John Starks 2-18 performance away from delivering us that elusive title. As a Knick fan, I wish I appreciated Patrick the way I do now. He gave us basketball relevance for a long stretch. From the late 80's through the late 90's, Patrick Ewing was New York Knicks basketball and we mattered. Madison Square Garden was electric every night, no matter who the road team was. As I watch the disaster that you're rolling out night after night, I get a deeper and deeper appreciation for what Ewing delivered. And Donnie, before I detail our demise to you, which is crucially important because you seem to be making many of the same mistakes, I need to point one other thing to you about Patrick Ewing.





Patrick Ewing is currently an assistant coach with the Orlando Magic and from all accounts a damn good one. From what I understand, Ewing has played a significant role in the development of Orlando center Dwight Howard. Before that, he was instrumental in developing Yao Ming. Ewing has also been very public in his desire to return to the Knicks as a coach, whether it be as an assistant or running the show himself. The only former Knick players who have a much historical significance to our organization are Willis Reed and Clyde Frazier. The organization has always found roles for both of them whether it be on the sidelines, the front office, or the broadcast booth. However, when Ewing requested an interview for an opportunity to join Mike D'Antoni's staff before last season, he was rebuffed. Donnie, we have always been a franchise whose history mattered. I would hope that if another chance would arise to be able to bring Ewing back to the organization in a role he's qualified for (assistant coach or head coach), that you'll make it right with Patrick and bring him home, but I digress......





It all started to go down hill Donnie, when Jeff Van Gundy, a coach who I greatly respect and admire, won a power struggle with Ernie Grunfeld and Grunfeld was dismissed as GM. His successor was former Utah Jazz GM Scott Layden. Layden's plan seem to be to build the Utah Jazz east and call them the Knicks. The problem was that Scotty boy didn't have Karl Malone and John Stockton, which is the equivalent of the white tigers performing in Vegas without Siegfried and Roy. Layden took on salary like Isiah Thomas harassed female employees. As opposed to letting Ewing's contract expire and come off the salary cap, keeping in mind that the group he had had gone to the finals with Ewing getting hurt early in the playoffs in 1999, Layden shipped Ewing out and brought back Glen Rice and his bloaded contract and Luc Longley's corpse and the corpse's bloated contract. Layden paid absurd amounts of Cablevision's money to sign free agents Howard Eisley, Shandon Anderson, and Clarence Weatherspoon. He traded Marcus Camby, and the #7 pick in the 2002 draft, which ended up being Nene, for Antonio McDyess cooming off knee surgery. McDyess was never the same player. Nene is currently the starting center on a legitimate title contender and Marcus Camby is still blocking shots, changing shots and pulling down rebounds at the age of 35. And for Layden's final gift, he cornered the market on overweight, undersized power forwards by drafting Michael Sweetney in 2003 who ate himself out of the league. Needless to say, if Layden had been willing to rebuild, we would have been closer to turning it around. Instead, Scotty boy put us on the road to irrelevance.





The thing is Donnie, is that most Knick fans believed that we were on our way out of the woods in December of 2003 when Layden was dismissed and MSG management hired Isiah Thomas on Garden president Steve Mills' recommendation. Needless to say, Thomas descended our proud organization to depths none of us ever thought imaginable. Donnie, I would never insult you by detailing the train wreck that Isiah made of our roster and salary cap situation. After all, you are the one who has taken on the monumental task of turning around this atrocity. No one understands this personnel mess better than you. but I do feel the need to remind you how Thomas dragged our organization through the mud. He took a class organization with a proud fan base and reduced it to the lowest common denominator.



His first year on the job, he humiliated a classy gentleman in head coach Don Chaney by joking about firing him on the David Letterman show 3 days BEFORE he fired Chaney. He created a corporate culture within the Knick offices that was akin to a go-go bar, culminating in a very public sexual harassment trial. Because of Isiah, the name Anucha Brown Sanders has been engraved in New York Knick history for all the wrong reasons. Donnie, it still puzzles me how garden management would pay $20 million to Shandon Anderson to go home, but wouldn't pay $6 million to Sanders to spare the organization epic embarrassment. And as you well know, Isiah couldn't just go away quietly. His convoluted overdose/suicide attempt last year forced you to publicly defend him just because you kept him on with the organization because you personally like Isiah and you are a compassionate man. And of course Isiah handled it in his own unique way by publicly throwing his 16 year old daughter under the bus. Donnie, this mees you have inherited goes beyond the roster. The culture has been poisoned and there is no quick antidote to cleanse it. And I'm sparing the details of the disaster that Stephon Marbury brought home with him.



Donnie, you've done some very good things since you took over the Knicks. Finding takers for Zack Randolph and Jamal Crawford for players with expiring contracts was no easy feat, but you got it done. And your first round pick last season, Italian forward Danilo Gallinari shows a lot of promise, assuming that he doesn't need back surgery. But Donnie, what you've done in your tenure is not inspiring confidence and from all appearances, you are putting all of your eggs in one basket.



You see Donnie, what you have here is a team of mercenaries, with very few building blocks. You brought in a coach who subscribes to an up tempo guard driven system. Yet in this past year's draft, with a draft loaded with point guards who could succeed in running Mike D'Antoni's system, you chose to select yet another power forward. Donnie, I don't think very much of the player you selected, Jordan Hill. He's very raw and is a low energy player. He appears to be the second coming of Jerrod Mustaf. But its virtually immaterial how good Hill is, unless he morphs into Amare Stoudemire. Donnie, you don't have any guards. And you left 4 point guards on the board who all could have been long term solutions at the position. Ty Lawson is a key bench contributor on a title contender in the Denver Nuggets and you left him on the board for Hill. Before you accuse me of 20/20 hindsight, Donnie, click on this link http://deependdive.blogspot.com/2009/06/some-wrap-up-business-on-finals-and-my.html. Brandon Jennings scored 55 points last Saturday night for Milwaukee and is the fastest guard in the league and you left him on the board for Hill. Eric Maynor won a game for Utah the other night scoring 11 4th quarter points against Toronto and you left him on the board for Hill. And Utah has one of the league's best point guards in Deron Williams but deemed Maynor too good to pass up. Darren Collison led New Orleans to a win earlier this week replacing an injured Chris Paul, the best point guard in the league. New Orleans took Collison even though they have Paul because he was too good to pass up. You passed on him for Hill. Your answer was to select Toney Douglas at the end of the first round, who is an off guard in a point guard's body. That #8 pick was a huge key in getting things going on the right track and you squandered it. Even if Hill ends up being productive, he'll never get enough playing time behind Gallinari and David Lee.

This entire formula has created an atmosphere where your players have very little vested interest in team success. Lets use Lee as an example. He made his name in the league through hustle and scrappy play. These days, he hustles one out of every 3 games and plays more like a finesse player. Part of it is the culture, but Lee needs to realize if he approached effort the way Anderson Varejao does on Cleveland, he may have gotten that 5 year $50 million contract he was looking for ths past offseason. Instead he's back in New York on a one year contract praying that you'll find enough value in him to sign him to a long term deal. And while we're talking about one year contracts, Donnie, if you do decide to sign Allen Iverson, which will definitely help, please waive that sideshow clown Nate Robinson. His clown act on and off the court only furthers the classless culture that was pervasive during the Isiah regime. Remember, Donnie, Iverson's a freebie for you this year. He won't hurt your lottery chances because Isiah traded next year's first rounder in the Marbury trade. We'll call that trade the gift that keeps on giving.


Donnie, I know the plan is to use the available cap space to sign LeBron James in the offseason. But frankly thats no excuse for what occurred two Fridays ago at the garden when Le Bron and the Cavaliers came in for a visit. It used to be that if one of the best players in the league came on a conference rival came into the Garden for a nationally televised game, the one thing he could count on was to be knocked on his rear end several times through the course of the game. The way everyone, and I mean everyone Donnie, genuflected at this man's feet made me want to vomit bile. A regular season game against a conference rival turned into a recruiting visit, and the whole country saw it. What happened to the pride of the New York Knicks? And before you blame the fans, remember they're taking their lead from the organization of which you are president. I must say Donnie, it is a new low for our very proud franchise and that begs my last question.

I understand that signing LeBron is Plan A, but what's plan B? What happens if LeBron stays in Cleveland, Dwyane Wade stays in Miami and Chris Bosh joins him there, Amare Stoudemire stays in Phoenix, and Joe Johnson goes to The Bulls? What are the Knicks going to do? Donnie, you have to realize that the Bulls, the Heat, the Nets, and the Clippers all have cap space available for one of these stars. Each and every one of those teams are a more preferable destination for a star who wants to win immediately. We've reached a new low when the Clippers are a more attractive free agent destination than the New York Knicks.

One last thought for you Donnie. You've been around this game and you've seen alot. You know what its like to deal with siginificant organizational adversity. After all, you were the President of the Indiana Pacers when the your players ran into the stands 5 years ago in Auburn Hills, Michigan to beat up fans. Please recognize how dire this has become for your loyal fan base. Implore your coach to play the young guys, or at least guys you think are part of the solution. If you bring in Iverson, surround him with Gallinari, Lee, Wilson Chandler, and Douglas. Let D'Antoni know that Jordan Hill should have a role in the rotation. If he stinks, and I think he does, Donnie, you need to know sooner rather than later. Please get this ship steered in the right direction. As fans, this is what we deserve. We've done our time. Make us relevant again.


Best Regards,


Brian Geltzeiler

We're one week into the season, and some things I see are surprising.....other things not so much......



I'm surprised Shaquille O'Neal showed up in a contract year in such poor shape. He looks like hew's taking nutrition advice from Rex Ryan.


I'm not surprised with how good the Dallas Mavericks have looked. Shawn Marion gives them a lot, which allows them to as for less from Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, and Jason Terry.


I'm surprised how good the Houston Rockets have looked. At least for this week, Trevor Ariza has been more than an adequate replacement for Ron Artest and point guard Aaron Brooks has actually played like a point guard. Its been distribution first, shooting second. And wouldn't you know, his scoring hasn't sufferred.

I'm not surprised how good the Boston Celtics have started off. And, most importantly, it appears as if head coach Doc Rivers is understanding his team's most important statistic, Kevin Garnett's minutes. If he keeps Garnett's minutes regulated in the 25-30 range every night, his chances increase exponentially of having Garnett available come playoff time.

I'm surprised how improved Washington Wizards forward Andray Blatche looks. but I'm not surprised that Gilbert Arenas looks like he's lost a step, although that may end up making him a more effective player. I'm still not a Wizards advocate.

I'm not surprised that Kevin Durant has struggled to start the year. Durant is immensely talented, but needs to get stronger and learn how to defend before he becomes any type of elite player. And while we're on the Thunder, I'm very surprised at how much Jeff Green has improved. It looks like the pro game has slowed down for him and he looks a lot more like the Jeff Green that starred at Georgetown.

I'm very surprised the Indiana Pacers look so bad. I know they're missing Mike Dunleavy and Tyler Hansbrough, but in reality, it doesn't matter. They're soft defensively. T. J. Ford is not a starting point guard in the league. And head coach Jim O'Brien is trying to have them run an up tempo system that they're clearly ill suited to run. This team in no way resembles the Celtic teams of the early 2000s that O'Brien coached.

I'm not surprised that the Knicks are anti-competitive. Granted, Isiah Thomas left Donnie Walsh with a horrific mess, but Donnie seems to have lost a little zip off the fastball so to speak. This situation is crying out for a column of its own.


At this stage, I'm thoroughly surprised that any front office on the league would allow Larry Brown to have personnel input on a team he coaches. but that's exactly what the Charlotte Bobcats have done. I guess team president Michael Jordan's "competitive juices" don't carry over to the success of the team he presides over. But he gives one heck of a hall of fame induction speech. Anyway, Larry is mired with the worst team this side of the Knicks. The Bobcats are so bad, I istakenly placed Jason Richardson on their team in my season preview because I couldn't believe a team's personnel could be so bad.

I'm not surprised that Carmelo Anthony appears to have taken his game to another level. I still contend that his upside is to be as good as Bernard King. And with a very capable team around him, this is a very good situation for Anthony to have lots of success on a personal and a team level.

I'm not surprised how quickly Byron Scott has lost the New Orleans Hornets after their playoff meltdown against Denver last year. The sooner the Hornets dump Scott and bring in someone on an interim basis (anyone), the sooner they'll get things going in the right direction. I'm also not surprised at how quickly Don Nelson has lost the Warriors this year. it was incumbent upon Nellie to unload Stephen Jackson before he could start to poison the young guys. From an effort standpoint, the culture appears tainted. Jackson comes as advertised. Nellie's got no one to blame but himself.

I'm not surprised that Allen Iverson is already complaining about coming off the bench one game into this arrangement. I'm also not surprised that the Grizzlies failed to settle this matter BEFORE they signed Iverson. But, I am surprised that the Knicks didn't seriously explore the possibility of bringing in Iverson for one year. He could have fit in in their up tempo system and was a high reward low risk proposition one a one year deal.

Giddyap. Y'all be cool.

Lets get it on with the West.....





Northwest Division (in predicted order of finish)



Denver Nuggets- They had a great year last year making it to the Western Conference finals. and the good news is that they got better. They brought in Arron Afflalo to replace Dahntay Jones, which will be an upgrade at a better price. But most importantly, they traded for a first round draft pick and selected the apple of my eye, Ty Lawson. Lawson will bring a speed dimension that the Nuggets didn't have last year and will enhance the Nuggets when they're speeding up the tempo. The bad news is that the Lakers and the Spurs both improved more than the Nuggets, so getting further than last year will most likely be a pipe dream.





Portland Trailblazers- The Blazers learned a lot in their first round loss to the Houston Rockets last season. They're a young team who will need to play more disciplined to advance in the postseason. They signed veteran point guard Andre Miller as a free agent. Miller is not the perfect complement to superstar Brandon Roy in the back court. But he's also a player who has never won in his career, and this is a chance to win. With the Blazers just signing LaMarcus Aldridge to a rich 5 year deal, they've got a core in tact for the next 3 years with Aldridge, Miller, and Roy. I have faith in head coach Nate McMillan's ability to make it work. With that said, that may not generally translate into making it further than last year. Its a deep, difficult Western Conference and Portland will get better, but this will be a tough year to break through.



Utah Jazz- The Jazz brought the same core group back with the addition of first round pick guard Eric Maynor, who looks ready. Head coach Jerry Sloan will be challenged in handling the situation at power forward. Carlos Boozer is on the last year of his contract and will be on the trading block until he gets dealt. Paul Millsap just signed a 4 year $32 million deal and is clearly the Jazz' future at the position. Sloan is a hall of famer, but he may have his hands full with this. Ultimately, the best the Jazz can hope for this season is to be cannon fodder for either the Spurs or the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs.



Oklahoma City Thunder- The Thunder will certainly be improved. And Kevin Durant is a star in the making. However, before we send Durant to Springfield, Massachusetts, can we see him learn how to guard someone? The Thunder are young and athletic, but the West is too deep to envision them creeping into the playoffs. They have a nice core of Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden, but they're just not there yet.



Minnesota Timberwolves- Minnesota GM David Kahn has taken a lot of heat in the media for his gutsy move to trade for an extra lottery pick and use both picks on point guards. I continue to believe that he did the right thing for the organization long term. With Rubio staying in Spain for a few years, Kahn has the luxury to hand Jonny Flynn the keys and see what's he's got. If Flynn, works out, then he's got a great trade chip in Rubio to wheel for whatever they need. And if Flynn doesn't work out, hand the keys to Rubio. Unfortunately, none of that will translate into a lot of improvement for this year. Another year out of the playoffs will mean another year in the lottery and the ability to add another productive member to the rotation. Minnesota has got themselves on the right track to be competitive in 2-3 years. And the added bonus is that the only big money they have committed long term is to franchise cornerstone power forward Al Jefferson.


Southwest Division (in predicted order of finish)


San Antonio Spurs- I give the Spurs front office and ownership a lot of credit. They reloaded to make one last run at a title with an aging superstar. The Spurs are smart enough to realize that Tim Duncan is a once in a generation star and you need to make hay while the sun shines. If Duncan's minutes are properly economized in the regular season, he still has enough gas in the tank to be a force in the playoffs. The Spurs traded Kurt Thomas' and Bruce Bowen's expiring contracts for Richard Jefferson. If Jefferson can revert back to his early career habits of quality shot selection and stifling perimeter defense, he's a difference maker for the Spurs. Of course, the Jefferson we saw in Milwaulee and at the tail end in New Jersey, is a player who can implode the Spurs' title hopes. The good news for San Antonio fans is that Spur head coach Gregg Popovich will keep RJ on a short leash. The Spurs also added Antonio McDyess as a free agent and had the wonderful good fortune of having power forward DeJuan Blair fall to them in the 2nd round of the draft. McDyess and Blair will take minutes and pressure of Duncan in a way that Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto never could. ANd as good as all that sounds, they still need to have Duncan and Manu Ginobili healthy for the playoffs or its all for naught. Count on seeing the Spurs playing into the end of May.

Dallas Mavericks- Here's another team in a foot race with Father Time. This past offseason, in making every effort to maximize their title contention aspirations around star power forward Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavericks re-signed 36 year old point guard Jason Kidd, signed free agent forward, 31 year old Shawn Marion, and signed 32 year old free agent forward Tim Thomas. Dallas has done great job of surrounding Nowitzki with the right type of players to win with. With the addition of power forward Drew Gooden, they have the ability to be good going big or small. I'm not the biggest Jason Kidd fan at this stage of his career, but there's no disputing he fits very well here. And very frankly, the worst thing the Mavericks have going against them is the presence of the Lakers and Spurs in the same conference. They've improved significantly, but for this season, it won't be enough.


New Orleans Hornets- Another team that managed to improve in the highly competitive West. Unfortunately, they've got a major problem that the other top teams in the West don't have. The Hornets completely quit on their coach Byron Scott last year during a home playoff game, losing to Denver in excess of 50 points. And with Scott in the last year of his contract and some players openly questioning newly acquired Emeka Okafor's current injury, which has kept him out of most of the preseason, the Hornets are not exactly a picture of team unity. The Hornets' best chance to make a run in the West will be to dump Scott midseason, considering he's on the last year of his contract. Still, the best they can hope for is winning one playoff round.

Houston Rockets- As impressive as the Rockets were in last year's playoffs, this is a very different team without Yao Ming and Ron Artest. Yao will sit out the year with a foot injury and Artest signed with the Lakers as a free agent. Houston GM Daryl Morey would have you believe that the free agent signing of Trevor Ariza from the Lakers represents an upgrade over Artest. Morey would be mistaken. Artest may be certifiably insane, but he was the straw that stirred the drink for the Rockets on both ends of the floor last season. Ariza is a very nice complementary player. The Rockets will take a step back this year, but once they get Yao back for next season, I expect them to contend in the West all over again.

Memphis Grizzlies- If the game were played with 3 basketballs and teams needed parole officers instead of head coaches, the Grizzlies would be set. But in the current NBA landscape, this team is a mess. This was a team plagued last season by the offensive selfishness of young players Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo. So GM Chris Wallace's answer was to bring in two of the biggest chuckers in the league in Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson . Wallace will regret the day he passed on Carlos Boozer's expiring deal to take on Randolph for three years at the league max. Matter of fact, Wallace will end up regretting it before the calendar turns to December. This is an impossible situation for head coach Lionel Hollins to succeed. Its no secret why this organization has been such a mess, for so long.


Pacific Division (in predicted order of finish)


Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers hierarchy has made it very clear that they are interested in cementing a dynasty after willing their first title in their post-Shaq era. They let Trevor Ariza go sign with Houston as a free agent and committed the same money to Ron Artest. Regardless of whta you read anywhere else, this is an upgrade in every way, Artest's off court insanity not withstanding. Artest is a team player on the court and can carry the load for long stretches on both ends of the floor, which is huge in keeping Kobe Bryant fresh for playoff time. Keep in mind, he led the Rockets without Yao Ming to push this same Laker team to 7 games in the same round of last year's playoffs. Also, Artest will HELP team chemistry on the Lakers. Please allow me to explain. The Lakers chose to bring back my man crush, Lamar Odom for four years at a minimal paycut, which was his best offer. The worst kept secret on the Lakers is the not so terrific relationship between Odom and Bryant. That relationship virtually torpedoed the Lakers in the 2008 finals against the Celtics. Artest is Odom's old friend back from AAU days in New York. Bryant oppenly campaigned to have Artest brought in and admittedly has a very good realtionship with Ron. Ron can actually build a bridge between Kobe and Lamar. And besides, what does Lamar have to be unhappy about? He won a title, got paid, gets to play with his old friend and shares a bed every night with my favorite Kardashian sister. In summary, there is no way anyone beats the Lakers come playoff time....and they may win 70 games in the regular season on their way.


Phoenix Suns- This is a team who's laying in the weeds a little bit. The trading of the artist formerly known as Shaquille O'Neal is a clear case of addition by subtraction. Shaq slowed the Suns down and confused their indentity. This is now a team with something to prove. Amare Stoudemire is in a contract year. Steve Nash and Grant Hill would like to prove they're not finished. Jason Richardson is a good fit in their up tempo system. And first round pick Earl Clark replaces what they lost with trading Boris Diaw for Richardson last season. Also, 2nd year center Robin Lopez (Brook's sister....I mean brother...) is a much better complement to Stoudemire in their up tempo system that Shaq ever was. At the very least, I expect the Suns to make the playoffs and be a royal pain in someone's rump come mid May.


Los Angeles Clippers- Lots of good offseason news for the Clips. They were blessed in the #1 pick in the draft and they were lucky to enough to have a star in the making for them in Blake Griffin. And GM Mike Dunleavy was able to unload roster and salary cap albatross in Zach Randolph, turning them into Craig Smith and Sebastian Telfair, two productive bench players. He was also smart enough to keep Marcus Camby for the last year of his contract. The problem is that once the season starts, the team will be coached by head coach Mike Dunleavy, who does a substandard job when compared to GM Mike Dunleavy. Dunleavy truly lost these guys last year, and most everyone is back. Extricating Zach Randolph will help, but it won't fix everything. Dunleavy had major problems with Baron Davis, Al Thornton, and Ricky Davis among others, and its naive to believe that they'll go away. They will be improved, but the best it will result in will be the 8th seed in the playoffs and canon fodder for the Lakers.


Sacramento Kings- They're a long way from looking good, but its starting to appear they're on the right track. They selected Tyreke Evans with the 4th pick of the first round. Evans is a freakish athlete thats got star written all over him. When you combine that with their first round pick last year, forward Jason Thompson, they now have some building blocks. They also are going to only have one big money player after this season in Kevin Martin, who's only 26. The bad news is that they probably won't be much better this year, but they will be back in the lottery to continue to build.


Golden State Warriors- This has become such a dysfunctional situation and from all appearances, it didn't have to be. The Warriors have drafted pretty well. In the last three years, they've selected Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Anthony Randolph, and Stephen Curry, who are all 23 or younger. But Don Nelson's handling of this whole Stephen Jackson situation is providing a damaging distraction. The longer Jackson's trade demand goes unmet, the more he poisons the culture among the young players. Nellie should have seen this coming. If you buy a house on a golf course, don't act surprised if golf balls fly through your windows. If you try to rebuild and keep Stephen Jackson as your veteran presence, you'll have golf balls flying through your windows. I hate to say it, because Don Nelson has been a coach and an executive in this league for a long time and has had plenty of success, but the sooner Warrior owner Chris Cohan turns the organization over to someone else, the better. It will be another year out of the playoffs, but their success this season will be predicated on how well the young players develop together.


Predicted Playoff Seedings

1) L.A. Lakers
2) San Antonio
3) Denver
4) Dallas
5) Portland
6) Phoenix
7) New Orleans
8) Utah

Final Four

L.A. Lakers over Dallas
San Antonio over Denver

Western Conference Finals

L.A. Lakers over San Antonio

NBA Finals

L.A. Lakers over Orlando ( 7 games)- I hate to predict a repeat. It almost appears lazy. But the bottom line is that the two best teams from last season are the two that improved the most. Y'all be cool. Giddyap.

With a week to go before opening night, its time to preview the season. I'll give you a little something on each team, starting with the Eastern Conference today. I'll take on the West next week.
















Atlantic Division ( teams are broken down in order of predicted finish)















Boston Celtics-Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels are very nice additions to the Celtics, which they desperately need. Heck, they could add everybody's favorite psychotherapy patient Stephon Marbury and he would help backing up Rajon Rondo, but in the end its all noise. If Kevin Garnett does not return to his 2008-09 form, there's no way the Celtics compete for a title. Hear that creaking......its the Celtics window closing.
















Toronto Raptors- Raptor general manager Bryan Colangelo had an aggressive bold offseason signing Handsome Hedo Turkoglu and Jarrett Jack to rich free agent contracts and extending former first overall pick Andrea Bargnani with an enormous deal. Colangelo starts the season with an eclectic group that's fun to watch, but will be short on rebounding and perimeter defense. I'm also not sure if he's got the right coach to make this team compete in Jay Triano. All of this spending was designed to show pending star free agent Chris Bosh that the organization is committing to winning. If it doesn't end up being enough to keep Bosh in Toronto, the Raptors are on the hook for a lot of money with a team that can't compete. The good news for Colangelo is that Jack is Bosh's college teammate and good friend and he's signed for 4 years, so you never know.











New Jersey Nets- This is going to be a team to watch this season for all of the right reasons. And they are certainly going to be better than people think. Very athletic with a very good point guard in Devin Harris and a very promising young big man in Brook Lopez. Lots of verys for a team only projected to win about 25 games. This team will be a very attractive option for one of the superstar free agents of the class of 2010, especially now that they have a billionaire Russian owner who is willing to spend a few bucks. Mark my words, the Nets are a more likely destination for LeBron James or Dwyane Wade than their higher profile crosstown rivals.













Philadelphia 76ers- As good a coach as Eddie Jordan is, he's going to have a tough time turning around this disaster. They did not have the financial willingness to re-sign point guard Andre Miller and their up tempo system does not run without the right point guard. They drafted UCLA frshman Jrue Holiday with their first round pick leaving Carolina point guard Ty Lawson on the board. Holiday wasn't even good enough to start in the Pac-10 last season. He's at least two years away from running the Sixers. In addition, their highest paid player, Elton Brand is a half court player who is ill-equipped to succeed in the Sixers' up tempo system. Get ready for lots of empty seats at the Wachovia Center.






New York Knicks- The Knicks look so bad, they make the Sixers look like the Lakers. They bring back most of the same group as last season. They added the Bust of Draft Past in Darko Milicic and the Bust of draft future in Jordan Hill. The only real building blocks they have are last year's #1 Danilo Galinari and Wilson Chandler, and Chandler had very little trade value when GM Donnie Walsh shopped him in the offseason. And on top of all of of this, their misguided off season pursuits of Grant Hill, Jason Kidd, Carlos Boozer, and Ramon Sessions wreak of a situation where the general manager and the coach are not on the same page. LeBron, do yourself a favor. Stay far far away.....unless you're folowing the Nets to Brooklyn.























Central Division (in predicted order of finish)



















Cleveland Cavaliers- The Cavs little makeover reminds me of the town of Rock Ridge from the movie Blazing Saddles. Rock Ridge was the fake town that was built with just store fronts with nothing behind men to throw the sheriff's men off the trail. On the surface, the Cavs should look better from the addition of Shaquille O'Neal, Anthony Parker, and Jamario Moon. But O'Neal at this stage of his career is not all that different from Zydrunas Ilgauskas, except Shaq has a TV show and 5 championship rings. Bringing Shaq in was a nice gesture to try and keep LeBron in town this offseason, but its not going to translate into more playoff wins, which is what the Cavs need to be better than last year. The Cavs biggest problems in the playoffs was having enough athletes to match up with Orlando's big wing players. Parker is 34 years old, and not athletic enough to match up with Rashard Lewis or Vince Carter. And Moon is a good athlete, but couldn't hit the water if he threw a bag of garbage off a pier. In the end, it will probably mean the same fate as last season... a conference finals loss and a lot of nail biting over whether LeBron James is going to stay in town.











Chicago Bulls- This is the year the Bulls will make their move towards being an elite team in the East. They will benefit tremendously from the continued development of young star point guard Derrick Rose. Center Joakim Noah will show some offense to accompany his intense defense, rebounding and athleticism. Luol Deng should be back healthy and he adds to their athleticism. And they subtracted the biggest ball hog this side of Allen Iverson in Ben Gordon. I even think that head coach Vinny Del Negro took his lumps in last year's playoffs and learned plenty. The Bulls will challenge the Cavaliers for Central division supremacy and will be a clear pain in someone's rump come playoff time.










Indiana Pacers- They won't be great, but they'll be better than people think. Their big offseason additions were first round pick Tyler Hansbrough and free agent signee Dahntay Jones. Hansbrough should help marginally and Jones probably less. The big factors for the Pacers will be the continued development of 2nd year center Roy Hibbert, who has looked like a monster in preseason, and the return from a knee injury of swingman Mike Dunleavy. With an improved Hibbert and a healthy Dunleavy, underrated and under appreciated star Danny Granger should get enough help to make this team a 6, 7, or 8 seed in the East, which represents progress in Indiana these days.

















Milwaukee Bucks- The Bucks are a team that may got a little bit better. It probably won't be enough for a playoff berth, but they should make some progress. They traded Richard Jefferson for cap relief, which will end up being addition by subtraction for two reasons. Jefferson's shot selection has gotten progressively worse as time has gone on. And his departure opens up playing time for last year's first round pick Joe Alexander, who is a good athlete that can shoot but needs live action to develop his game. The Bucks also chose not to re-sign restricted free agent point guard Ramon Sessions and drafted point guard Brandon Jennings in the first round. Jennings is a dynamic athlete with potential to turn into an electric point guard, so there's upside there. The Bucks also brought in a couple of good athletes for good prices in Hakim Warrick and Carlos Delfino. The big danger for the Bucks is that head coach Scott Skiles doesn't lose patience with some of these young players and kill their confidence before they ever have it.











Detroit Pistons- So, if you're Joe Dumars, and you make an awful trade last season, shipping out a seasoned championship point guard in Chauncey Billups and bringing in the world's biggest chucker (Allen Iverson), essentially torpedoing the Pistons' entire season?? If I'm Joe D, I trade Prince and Hamilton for cap relief and draft picks, blow the whole thing up and start from scratch. Unfortunately, for Pistons fans, I'm not Joe D. Dumars attempted to remake this thing on the fly and threw ridiculous amounts of money on the world's second biggest chucker, Ben Gordon, and a three point shooting power forward who doesn't defend or rebound in Charlie Villanueva. And to top it off, Joe D hires a career assistant who's last head coaching job 20 years ago resulted in the worst season in Division 1 college history as HIS new head coach. We will spend the season gawking at them as if they were a car accident, sort of the NBA's version of a rubber necking delay.














Southeast Division ( in order of predicted finish)

Orlando Magic- No one would have blamed Magic GM Otis Smith if he had decided to bring back the same team from last season. that made a surprise run to th NBA finals All he really HAD to do was re-sign Handsome Hedo, and they could run it back with Dwight Howard being a year better. But Smith saw an opportunity to improve this team, and with ownership's blessing (financial commitment), he made them a force. He let the Raptors overpay Turkoglu. He brought in Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson for Courtney Lee and some expiring contracts. Carter is a huge upgrade over Handsome Hedo and Anderson is the kind of stretch "4" that Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy loves. Smith also signed free agent undersized power forward Brandon Bass from Dallas, who makes an excellent front court mate for Howard and Rashard Lewis and gives the Magic a power presence, which will allow Van Gundy to go big or small. Smith also recognized the value of backup center Marcin Gortat and matched Dallas' offer sheet to keep him in Orlando. And for Otis' last trick, he signed Jason Williams to backup Jameer Nelson at point guard. Williams spent a year out of basketball, but was an extremely functional point guard for the Miami Heat 2006 title team. All in all, a stellar offseason for my man Otis. Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2009-2010 Eastern Conference champions.





Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks made attempts to improve in the offseason, unfortunately I'm not sure they worked. They brought Jamal Crawford in from Golden State. Crawford is a chucker in the Iverson/Ben Gordon mold, which won't exactly help team chemistry. Joe Johnson has one foot out the door in the last year of his contract. And if he doesn't come back, it turns quickly into a disaster. They've got big financial decisions to coming up on Marvin Williams and Al Horford. And considering that they're already paying Josh Smith and Mike Bibby for awhile, this thing goes in reverse quickly without Johnson. The East is too tough for them to advance anywhere. It will be a first round playoff loss and lean times on the horizon once again in Atlanta.



Miami Heat- I hate to say it, but things don't look all that good here either. Yes, they've got Dwyane Wade in his prime. And with Wade being a free agent after the season, he may have one foot out the door as well. The Heat's best chance to keep Wade may have come and gone with their failed offseason pursuit of Lamar Odom and Carlos Boozer. Now their best chance is to hope for significant improvement from Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers, and Daequan Cook. In other words, Wade's probably good as gone. The good news for Miami is that with the shot Jermaine O'Neal in the last year of his ridiuclously bloated contract, they have virtually no money committed beyond this year.

Washington Wizards- The notion that the Wizards somehow made themselves a playoff team by moving the #5 pick in the draft for Mike Miller and Randy Foye and getting all-world chucker Gilbert Arenas back from injury is faulty at best and utterly absurd at worst. I'm a big fan of Ernie Grunfeld, but he's got it wrong here. He could have started to rebuild this thing around Ricky Rubio. Instead, he's grasping at straws with a selfish veteran team. The only thing the Miller/Foye trade did was get them closer to making the playoffs, which will mean less balls in the lottery jar, utlimately setting the organization back. The good news is that another lottery pick will be pending.

Charlotte Bobcats- Don't look now, but Larry Brown took the wrong job again. Ownership has very little financial commitment to winning considering that owner Bob Johnson is dying to sell the team. General manager Rod Higgins has not done well on a shoestring budget. President Michael Jordan is too busy playing golf and giving unique and entertaining Hall of Fame induction speeches. The bottom line is that outside of Jason Richardson (chucker) and some young point guard depth, the Bobcats have nothing. They can talk up the Tyson Chandler-Emeka Okafor deal all they want basketball-wise, getting Chandler was all about saving money considering that Chandler cannot stay healthy enough to stay on the court. If Larry doesn't want this to be his last job, he better jump ship quick, because this team this season is not going to be his lead item on the old resume.

Predicted Playoff Seedings

1) Cleveland
2) Orlando
3) Boston
4) Chicago
5) Toronto
6) Indiana
7) Atlanta
8) Miami

Final Four

Chicago over Cleveland
Orlando over Boston

Conference Finals

Orlando over Chicago.

Western conference preview will be up before next Friday. Y'all be cool. Giddyap.